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000
FXUS61 KLWX 091349
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
949 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY BEFORE SETTLING OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS NRN NC THIS MORNING WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. NW FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY. OVERCAST
CONDITIONS ARE STILL APPARENT ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT THIS MORNING VIA VIS SATELLITE. THESE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO A COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 40S
IN NRN MD TO THE UPPER 50S IN CENTRAL VA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE JETSTREAM WILL BE SPLIT TONIGHT BETWEEN A CUTOFF UPPER- LEVEL
LOW OVER MEXICO IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND A FAST NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH SEVERAL UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH. THESE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA AS
THESE SYSTEMS RACE BY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALSO BUILD TO OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH...ALLOWING
FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE. THIS MEANS THAT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL CAUSE CHILLY CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE COLDER VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIPS BY TO OUR NORTH...HIGH PRESSURE HANGING
TOUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SRN ATLC COAST WILL KEEP PUSHING WARMER AIR
UP THE ERN SEABOARD. HIGHS MON AND TUE SHOULD GET ABOVE 60 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION OUTSIDE OF THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. TUE WILL BE THE WARMER DAY...THOUGH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA COULD CAP SOME OF THE WARMER TEMPS TO
U50S/NEAR 60. THE LOWER PIEDMONT BOTH MON AND TUE WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE M60S TO NEAR 70. WITH THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT FROM THE
CLIPPERS PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH...SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND
USHER IN THIS WARMER AIRMASS AT A FASTER RATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF DISCREPANCY W/ MED RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE WED
STORM SYSTEM THOUGH LOOKING A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO PREV RUNS. ONE
SIMILARITY IS THE LARGE PRECIP SHIELD ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
TRACKS LARGELY NORTH OF THE CWA...JUST DOWN INTO THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE GFS IS TAKING THIS HIGH GRADIENT PRECIP LINE DOWN
TOWARD THE I-66 CORRIDOR - ROUGHLY BISECTING THE AREA. MUCH OF HOW
THIS DAY`S WX WILL PLAY OUT DEPENDS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...SINCE ALL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY POTENT AND STRENGTHENING SFC
FEATURE - WRAPPING A DECENT AMOUNT OF WIND AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AROUND IT. DEPENDING HOW FAR NORTH/SOUTH AND INTENSE...IT MAY BRING
SOME ELEVATED OR SHEAR-DRIVEN CONVECTION - ESPEC SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE SFC LOW. KEEPING HIGH POPS W/ A COLD RAIN TO START THE DAY BUT
WARMING UP INTO THE 50S DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVER AND STEADY
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A STEADY-GRADUAL WARM-UP INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND - EACH DAY A FEW DEG WARMER THAN THE LAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE 2-3 DAY PERIOD BEFORE
THE NEXT LONGER-TERM PASSAGE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE MON AND TUE W/ DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OTHER
THAN SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE MTNS ON TUE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S
PASSAGE ON WED WILL BRING SOME PRECIP TO THE AREA...THEN MOVE OFF
THE COAST BY EARLY THU.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

LIGHT WINDS FROM A SFC HIGH WELL TO OUR SOUTH TO START THE WEEK. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WED...BRINGING A PERIOD
SCA GUSTS BEHIND THE SYSTEM - POTENTIALLY GALE INTO EARLY THU
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE DOWN THE AREA`S WX AND WINDS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BJL/GMS
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS