Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
FXUS61 KLWX 261422 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1022 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017
A front will remain stationary across the area through this
evening before returning as a warm front late tonight and
Monday. Another cold front will cross the area late Tuesday.
High pressure will build over the region Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Backdoor front has cleared the entire fcst area with CAD
wedge and associated low clouds well in place. Mid-level
subsidence/dry air aloft will remain in place through most of
the day with just some very light rain or drizzle the main
p-type across the area. The exception will be over the far
west/southwest part of the area where deeper moisture will
result in some light rain/QPF amounts.
Clouds thicken everywhere tonight with ra/showers expected as
front begins to retreat to the north. PoPs categorical west of
the Blue Ridge and likely east.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A second low currently along the CO/NM border will reach the Midwest
late Monday before tracking across the northern Mid-Atlantic Tuesday
per 00Z ECMWF/GFS. Continued moist southwesterly flow warrants high
chance PoPs with slight chance for thunder for the LWX CWA Monday.
Better chance for thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday on the south
side of the low crossing the region.
The cold front trailing this low enters the area Tuesday night
bringing in a brief stretch of quiet weather under high
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The first part of the forecast will be dominated by an induced
upper ridge over the Mid Atlantic in-between low pressure east
of Nova Scotia and a developing low across the central US. The
middle part of the week will be dry. Highs Wednesday in the 60s.
Lows Wednesday night 35-40. Thursday should see quite a bit of
sunshine with highs in the lower 60s.
Conditions will deteriorate Thursday night as the aforementioned
low tracks into Missouri to near Lake Erie Friday. The
attendant warm front will hang south of the Mid Atlantic through
Friday. This will bring cooler temperatures to the region,
cloudy skies, and likely PoPs.
Low pressure may develop along the Virginia coast Friday night
keeping the forecast area on the cloudy and wet side through
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Onshore flow across the area generally 10 to 15 knots through
tonight. Drizzle and IFR conds expected to develop through the
daylight hours today with ceilings slow to lift tonight.
Southwesterly flow from low pressure to the west/north Monday and
Tuesday brings rain showers and thunderstorms to the DC metros
with the better thunder threat Tuesday afternoon.
VFR conditions Wedensday and Thursday. Clouds will thicken
Onshore flow 15 to 20 knots continues through tonight before
shifting south Monday.
Generally sub-SCA SWly flow prevails Monday and Tuesday with thunder
chances Tuesday. Cold front crosses the area Tuesday night with SCA
likely across the area in NWly flow.
High pressure will build into the waters for midweek. No
problems expected on the waters Wednesday/Thursday.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for