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000
FXUS61 KLWX 011934
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
234 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

WE`VE BEEN EAGLE-EYEING THE WX ALL DAY - TEMPS/PCPN/MDL GDNC. AS
THOUGHT YDA TDA HAS BEEN MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TEMPS HV
RISEN TO A40 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND IT`S LOOKING DOUBTFUL
THAT TEMPS WL BE DROPPING BLO FRZG AS LOW LV WIND FIELD IS FM THE
SW. AS A RESULT HV TRIMMED AWAY THE SRN FRINGE OF THE ADVSRY - NRN
VA. RA WL GET HERE THIS EVE...BUT WHEN IT DOES IT WL NOT BE
FALLING INTO SUBFRZG AIR. EVEN FURTHER N THE FZRA THREAT IS
LOOKING SUSPECT...BUT THE ADVSRY THERE RMNS IN EFFECT. SHELTERED
VALLEYS RMN A CONCERN.

AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO WRN PA TNGT RA COULD FALL AT A MDT RATE
OVRNT. QPF COULD BE OVR 1/2 INCH.

LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

CD FNT MOVES THRU THE AREA MON MRNG. THE STORY OF THE DAY WL PRBLY
BE WIND - STRNG PRES GRAD DVLPG MON AFTN. A WIND ADVSRY MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVS AND AT LEAST THE NRN PART OF THE
FCST AREA. WE`LL LV THAT FOR LATER SHIFTS TO PONDER. IT IS
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

MDLS HV A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH FCSTD FOR MON - MET AND EURO
COLDER...GFS HAS MANY SITES INTO THE 50S. AS OMUCH TIME HAS SPENT
ON THE TDA/TNGT FCST LTL HAS BEEN COMMITTED TO THIS. WE HV
AFTN TEMPS RANGING FM THE M30S IN WRN MD TO A50 IN LWR SRN MD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

BY MONDAY EVENING...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NEAR CAPE COD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MS VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STILL BE STRONG SO GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING...BUT BE ON AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT. UNDER
THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW...THE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING QUICKLY
FROM THE WEST. ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL END DURING
THE EVENING WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS ARCTIC AIR RUSHES IN...GENERALLY
IN THE TEENS WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND OFFSHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE CLOUDS TUESDAY
MORNING BUT BELOW THAT A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE. RETURN
FLOW DOES NOT COMMENCE UNTIL LATE...SO HIGHS WILL STILL BE CHILLY
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THINK MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL NW OF THE
AREA. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THOUGH...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NOT
QUITE AS COLD.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LINGERS THURSDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION. THE GFS MODEL IS FASTER
THAN THE EURO MODEL WITH MOVING THE FRONT EASTWARD. WE TOOK AN
AVERAGE OF THE TWO MODELS BUT THEN LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER
OF THE MODELS SINCE MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING NORTH AND THE
TROUGH AXIS IS POSITIVELY TILTED. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH A
COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A COLD FRONT TRIES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY BUT
MAY NOT MAKE IT UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS WE MAY LOOK AT HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 40 IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

CIGS XPCTD TO DIMINISH THIS EVE..EVENTUALLY INTO IFR CAT. ON MON
STRONG NWRLY WINDS WL BE PSBL DURG THE AFTN.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG NW WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE
TUESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. WINDS S TO SW 5 TO 10 KNOTS. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH EXCEPTION TO ANY BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
AT THE TERMINALS WHERE THERE COULD BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS SW
VEERING NW AND INCREASING 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH EXCEPTION TO BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
WHERE IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE BRIEF. WINDS NW TO N 10 TO 20 KNOTS
GUSTING 25 KNOTS THEN DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA CONDS XPCTD TO DVLP TNGT...INCRSG TO GALE MON AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS BACK INTO THE WATERS.

GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. A DIMINISHING TREND
WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER SCA CONDTIONS MAY LINGER INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY WINDS DIMINISH...WILL NOT POST A SCA ON
THE BACK END OF THE GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP BY LATE TUESDAY...BUT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 15 KT OR
LESS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. NO MARINE HAZARDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY THURSDAY.



&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ003>006-503-505-507-508.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ503-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-542-543.

&&

$$
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