Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 290547 AAC
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
147 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of disturbances will keep showers in the forecast through
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Area of showers continues to drift eastward with exiting surface
low and its associated upper level wave. Using a blend of hires
guidance, have updated pops and temperatures. Clouds will be
tricky overnight as a brief shot of dense fog has turned into a
layer of stratus. Would expect this to spread across most of the
area by dawn.

Expect scattered showers and storms to pop up again later today
as the atmosphere will remain unstable and another wave crosses
as evening approaches. With some minor ridging aloft this
morning, the activity should hold off until the afternoon. Expect
warmer temperatures today, with humid conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Very little change to the overall pattern, with zonal flow aloft
and shortwaves riding eastward in the flow. The risk for showers
and storms will continue through the entire weekend, with best
timing linked to the passage of aforementioned waves. Continued
humid with near seasonal daytime temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Appears to be enough low level moisture for low chance pops in the
ridges Monday, otherwise a weak bubble of surface high pressure
looks to bring warm temperatures with little chance for showers
Tuesday and Wednesday. A frontal boundary may get close enough for
chance POPs on Thursday. A modified Superblend was used for the
extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers should taper off with exiting shortwave support
tonight, though widespread MVFR and eventual IFR fog and stratus
is expected with low level moisture in place through early Friday.
A return to VFR is expected by Friday afternoon as the fog mixes
out and CU develops, but broad upper troughing should maintain
shower and thunderstorm chances. Included a VCSH mention in the
TAFS for now.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Broad upper troughing should maintain periodic shower and
thunderstorm restriction potential through Monday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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