Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 112335
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
635 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 6PM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY POPS AND TEMPERATURES...KEEPING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY LONGER FOR THE
TIER OF COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WHERE ECHOES HAVE HELD
ON THE LONGEST. ALTHOUGH THE VERY COLD AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT...LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES COULD PLUMMET ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IF SKIES MANAGE TO
CLEAR OUT. THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HANG IN LONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
THIS FROM HAPPENING...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THRU THE
EVE AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP
INVERSIONS...AND WKNG LAPSE RATES. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING CLRG SKIES TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD AVG AROUND 15 DEG BELOW
SEASONAL LVLS USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS BLENDED
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY
MID EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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