Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160517
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1217 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will bring light snow to the region today.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
No major changes were needed for the late eve update Great Lakes
low pressure is poised to pull a cold front across the region
during the near term. Expect light snow to redevelop with
patches of moderate to heavy embedded. The advisory for the
ridges for today was maintained.

Previous...
Near dawn Tuesday, the upper trough will pull
moisture northward, focusing snow over more of our southern
zones. This snow is expected to continue well into Tuesday
afternoon, before the dry slot can advance further. This will
lengthen the residence time of snow over the Ridges, ultimately
boosting their totals from previous forecasts. All told, kept
forecast amounts a little general with 2-3" for most of the area
over at least a 24hr period. The ridges could see 2-4" and
despite the long duration event, a Winter Weather Advisory has
been issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Any remaining snow showers will continue to taper down Tuesday
night in the wake of the cold front. The core of the cold air
will pass through Wednesday morning, bringing the coldest
temperatures of the work week. Current forecast has relatively
light winds during this time, but this period will need to be
monitored for potential Wind Chill Advisory headlines.

Heights begin to build into Wednesday, but northwest flow
through the mid-levels will keep clouds and the potential for
light snow, especially north of I-80. Ridging, albeit brief,
will carry into Thursday, bringing an increase in sunshine and
helping to further moderate temperatures. Still highs will be
several degrees off the averages.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Zonal flow tries to establish over the eastern CONUS late this
week. From here, a slight pattern shift is expected as a trough
deepens over the western CONUS. This will amplify the
southeastern ridge and ultimately bring warmer conditions back
to the area. Moist advection around the western flank of the
ridge will keep at least chance PoPs in for for the early
weekend. By this time, temperatures should be warm enough to
support all rain.

The western trough ejects and approaches our area by early next
week. Enough consistency existed across model guidance to
maintain the likely PoPs for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread MVFR to IFR restrictions in snow can be expected
until low pressure pulls a cdfnt acrs the region this morning.
Conditions should improve during the  afternoon as subsidence
and dry advection ensue in the wake of the front.

.OUTLOOK...
Northwest flow may lead to further restrictions Wednesday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     MDZ001.
OH...None.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for PAZ076.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for WVZ510-
     511.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$


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