Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
715
FXUS61 KPBZ 032222 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TYPICAL OF EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. HAVE UPDATED POPS IN
LINE WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIRES DATA. ALSO ADDED IN THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE IS
MAKING IT TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO REACH THE
GROUND. SKIES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED WITH THE
LATEST HIRES BLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST
ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF
30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS.
NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE
AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME AIRPORTS TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING. LOCATIONS LIKE KDUJ
WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR RESTRICTIONS. VFR BACK AGAIN ALL AIRPORTS A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.