Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271842
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
242 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A LULL IN PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...RETURNING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. THE BEST SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO STAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA...THOUGH NW PA INTO EASTERN OHIO COULD SEE MARGINAL
CONDITIONS FOR STRONG STORMS. WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR IN PLACE
THESE AREAS HAVE SOME CHANCE AT SEEING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS...SO MAINTAINED A MENTION OF THIS
IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE... INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD
CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIGDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR INTO THE EVENING. AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO WILL BE ENTERING EASTERN OHIO TOWARD 00Z AND HAVE
MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE WESTERN MOST PORTS AND WELL AS KFKL. WOULD
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS WEAK
BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST ACROSS REGION...SO VCSH WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RESTRICTIONS. THIS MAY WELL CHANGE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING
ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. BEHIND BOUNDARY
EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN COOL ADVECTION AS WIND SHIFTS
WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST UNDER 10 KTS THURSDAY MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.