Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 231232
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
732 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather will continue until the passage of a Saturday cold
front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Quick update to add isolated/scattered showers from PIT on
southeast this morning in weak convergence pattern. Still expect
showers this afternoon to be mainly limited to northern zones,
as a frontal boundary is progged to stall in in the vicinity of
the I-80 corridor before lifting back to the north as a warm
front. Model guidance continues to suggest the possibility of a
few thunderstorms in the mix as well, however, chances are too
low to include in the forecast as warm air aloft is more likely
to keep any activity capped off.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Any remaining shower activity that develops across northern
zones will diminish this evening as the warm front lifts north.
With the forecast area well withing the warm sector,
temperatures on Friday look to be the warmest yet since
beginning this prolonged period of well above normal
temperatures. The current forecast includes record breaking
temperatures at all climate locations and dry conditions.

Friday night southerly winds will increase as the cold front
approaches and this along with plenty of cloud coverage will
likely result in record high minimums overnight.

There is higher confidence in timing of frontal passage...not
pushing it back later and keeping the inherited forecast as-is
as the modTrends tool is finally showing a flat linear
regression slope regarding the eastern CONUS trough.

The front will cross Saturday morning into early afternoon with
The timing of the passage would still not seem to favor much of
a severe threat given the expected lack of buoyancy, but with
strong flow and plenty of shear to enhance updrafts, any storms
may need to be monitored for wind gusts.

In any case winds will be strong ahead and behind the front
through early Sunday...with isolated gusts up to 40mph possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Behind the cold front, wraparound showers will drop in coverage
Saturday night, with snow showers possible. Sunday will likely
be the only completely dry day in the extended forecast. Model
guidance is then a little uncertain with timing of a system on
Monday before having surprisingly good agreement on Wednesday.
Have stuck close to the Superblend through this portion of the
forecast. After slightly below normal temperatures on Sunday,
high temperatures will increase through the period, with 60s
once again a possibility by the first day of March.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Any remaining VFR should deteriorate to MVFR with occasional IFR
through the morning with increasing low level moisture ahead of
an approaching surface front. Mixing should improve ceiling
levels by afternoon though MVFR is still expected. Scattered
showers are possible this afternoon N of PIT as the front sinks
further S.

Evening/overnight improvement is anticipated with passage of
the supporting shortwave and the shift of the surface front back
to the north.

.OUTLOOK...
Widespread restrictions are likely with the approach and passage
of a cold front on Friday night and early Saturday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for climate sites:

            Thu              Fri
          --------        --------
PIT       70 (1922)       70 (1875,1906)
ZZV       64 (2000)       70 (1961)
MGW       68 (1996)       75 (1975)
DUJ       63 (1985)       60 (1985)
HLG       62 (2000)       63 (2016)
PHD       69 (1975)       66 (1985)

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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