Area Forecast Discussion
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902
FXUS61 KPBZ 300439
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1239 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure should result in dry weather for Memorial Day
through mid week, with continued warm temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Area of showers ahead of cold front into western ohio are
dissipating and have only left chance pops across small portion of
eastern ohio. Adjusted min temperatures based on current
observations.

Monday will feature a general decrease in cloud cover and a slight
decrease in dewpoints. An isolated shower or storm will remain
possible along the ridges as the cold front trudges eastward.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Building surface high pressure should bring mainly dry weather
for the middle portion of the week. Temperatures are expected to
average around 10 degrees above seasonal levels using a blend of
GFS gridded MOS and consensus guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models in good overall agreement on a cold front approaching the
region by Thursday afternoon and attempting to push east by
Friday. A shortwave ahead of a trough axis moving across the
great lakes may slow progression of the front Friday until trough
passes so chance pops continued. No significant changes for
Saturday with chance pops mainly for the ridges with lingering
low level moisture. Above normal temperatures mid week will begin
to trend toward the seasonal average late week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overnight, fog will be the biggest question. Have continued with
a forecast favoring persistence, with IFR forecast at those
terminals that saw those restrictions last night. AGC is likely to
fog tonight given the heavy rainfall earlier today. Fog should
dissipate by mid morning Monday, with VFR conditions then
expected for the remainder of the day as the cold front crosses
with little precipitation.


.OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The next chance for more widespread restrictions will be with a
front Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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