Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300836
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
421 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LATEST MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIRLY WELL CONGEALED MASS OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN OHIO AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROF. CLOUDTOP TEMPERATURE TRENDS VIA IR SATELLITE SHOW
WARMING...WHICH COINCIDES WELL WITH THE WEAKENING OF INDIVIDUAL CELL
STRENGTH. STILL SOME UPPER SUPPORT STILL EXISTS IN THE FORM OF UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 300MB JET
STREAK...SO SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH THROUGH DAYBREAK.


AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY COMES A BIT OF A TRANSITION AS THE FRONT
WASHES OUT. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF ANY ORGANIZED ASCENT...WEAK
MESOSCALE IMPULSES ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY COULD COMBINE WITH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE/SCATTERED WORDING THROUGH
THE EVENING. ALMOST ALL MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB EVACUATES THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WEAK UPPER TROF PULLS AWAY. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTH...PULLED UP BY SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN
ISOLATED SHOWERS HEADING INTO THE SUNDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VORTICITY LOBE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARDS
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
WILL BE SKIMMED BY THIS MIDLEVEL SUPPORT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PIT ON
SOUTH. PROXIMITY TO VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT
BETTER COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. DEPARTURE OF
DISTURBANCE PLUS LOSS OF HEATING WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY
00Z TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER...H500 RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY AND HOLD ON FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AND FOR NOW HAVE ONLY KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RIDGES...WHERE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE EFFECT
MAY HELP TO PRODUCE A SHRA OR TSRA ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. FOR
WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...EMBEDDED IN
THE GENERAL RIDGING PATTERN...MAY ALLOW CAPPING TO BE OVERCOME
SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. EACH NIGHTTIME PERIOD SHOULD
BE MOSTLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN.
GENERALLY BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH PREVIOUS VALUES FOR THE FORECAST.
WOULD EXPECT SOME READINGS AT OR JUST OVER THE 90 DEGREE LEVEL BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CL

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.
CL

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

UPPER-LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS REGION...RESULTING IN SHOWERS
BLOSSOMING OVER OHIO. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...SOME
MVFR RESTRICTIONS CAN BE SEEN FOR PIT/FKL/BVI/HLG THROUGH DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WE FLIRT AGAIN WITH EDGE
OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE
WEST. CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE.
TAX

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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