Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 301837
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
237 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm weather continues through tonight and into
Wednesday. A cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms later Wednesday and Wednesday night. A cooler
pattern will follow for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry air aloft on the 12Z sounding is mixing down well, resulting
in a drop in dewpoints at many locations. Skies are clear for the
most part this afternoon, although some cirrus will be seen later.
Still think any terrain-based convection will remain off to the
south of the CWA.

Surface high pressure will continue to slide east tonight. A
shortwave and associated cold front will make its way across the
Great Lakes through 12Z. Clouds will begin to increase especially
after 06Z as isentropic upglide develops aloft, but the lower
levels should remain too dry to allow precipitation prior to 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main event will be the cold frontal passage late Wednesday and
Wednesday night. The best support for lift will lie across the
northern counties, closer to the crossing shortwave. Have
increased PoPs to likely in this area while keeping lower values
to the south. Moisture increases after 18Z, with precipitable
water increasing back into the 1.75 to 2.0 inch range. Some model
soundings take on a moist adiabatic look late Wednesday and
Wednesday evening. Given the relatively low instability, this
should keep severe probabilities quite low and in agreement with
the SPC Day 2 outlook. However, we cannot rule out some at least
briefly heavier rainfall rates, given the high moisture content
and sufficient warm cloud depths. Still, flooding does not appear
to be a threat at this time.

Kept some low PoPs southeast of PIT early on Thursday as the front
crosses the ridges. Surface high pressure builds in later
Thursday with a trough in the mid levels. This brings in a drier
and cooler air mass through Friday, with temperatures below
climatology both Thursday and Friday afternoons.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended forecast will be very quiet through the holiday
weekend. Ridging is progged across much of the eastern CONUS
through Labor Day, with dry weather and gradually warming
temperatures expected. Clouds may be on the increase on Tuesday,
but precipitation should still remain west of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Cloud cover
will begin to increase by Wednesday morning, but precipitation
should remain west of terminals through the 24 hour TAF period.
Scattered thunderstorms were added to the extended portion of the
PIT TAF.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible with a cold front Wednesday night
into Thursday morning, but the remainder of the period should have
VFR conditions.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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