Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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000
FXZS60 NSTU 020012
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
112 PM SST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR SOUTH
OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING OVER
THE TERRITORY WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES THROUGH
TONIGHT. LATEST SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENING
MONDAY AS IT DRIFTS EAST...DIMINISHING THE WIND SPEEDS. FURTHERMORE...THE
CLOSENESS OF A SURFACE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE TERRITORY IS SHOWN
TO BRING BOUTS OF SHOWERS ACROSS AMERICAN SAMOA THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WEAKENS. HOWEVER...MODELS
STILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT
TERM AS THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE
WEST.

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS. CURRENT SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS ONES...BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THIS TROUGH
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SAMOAN
ISLANDS THROUGH THE LONG TERM...INSTEAD OF PREVAILING DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS MODEL SKILLS
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIODS ARE OFTEN LOW...AND MAKE CHANGES AS
NECESSARY AS NEWER SOLUTIONS POPULATE. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF
CLOUD COVER AND POPS IN THE LONG TERM...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST MODELS SHOW SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

LUTU-MCMOORE





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