Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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798
FXZS60 NSTU 250025
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
125 PM SST SUN JUL 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULI STREAMING ACROSS THE SAMOAN ISLANDS
WITH THE TRADE WIND FLOW...WHILE AN ACTIVE SURFACE TROUGH
STRADDLING NEAR 10 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAILING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
MULTIPLE CENTERED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SAMOAN
ISLANDS MERGE AS THEY MIGRATE EAST. WHEREAS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERRITORY WITH LITTLE TO
NO INFLUENCE ON WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
HENCE...WILL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DRIFTING OVER THE
TERRITORY BY LATE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY...BRINGING AN UPTICK IN
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. SINCE IT IS
STILL FAR OFF...AND MODEL SKILLS ARE LOWER IN THE LONG TERM...WILL
MAKE VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FUTURE MODEL OUTPUTS AND MAKE THE NECESSARY CHANGES AS CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASED.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL
SOLUTIONS...SHOWING SEAS EXCEEDING ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR HIGH
SURFS. IN ADDITION...THE FRESH TRADES ALSO SATISFY CRITERIA FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE TERRITORY. LATEST WAVE WATCH
SOLUTIONS SHOW SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE WINDS MAY
STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY FOR SMALL CRAFTS.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

&&

$$

LUTU-MCMOORE/MEREDITH





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