Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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000
FXZS60 NSTU 300126
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
226 PM SST WED MAR 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A SIGNATURE OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
UPSTREAM COMBINED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SSW OF THE REGION SAYS VERY LITTLE OF WHAT TO EXPECT OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE EAST OF MANU`A WILL
TRIGGER HUMID WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SHORT TERM.
GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS DOWNPLAYS SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
EXPECTED TROUGH. INTERESTINGLY...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD...THE REAR TAIL OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SAMOAN
ISLANDS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ENHANCE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE TSMS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE SHORT TERM. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SITUATION
AND PROVIDE UPDATES WHEN NECESSARY. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS.

.LONG TERM...
.SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH ABOVE THE FCST ZONES
WILL TRIGGER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INCLUDING POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF TUTUILA WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGH LONG TERM.

&&

.MARINE...WAVE WATCH MODEL III CONTINUES TO SHOW SSW SWELLS UP TO
7 FT MOVING ACROSS THE SAMOAN WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...
A TRADE-WIND GENERATED SEAS AND SWELLS UP TO 7 TO 9 FT WILL ARRIVE
NEAR AMERICAN SAMOA WATERS FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS SITUATION BEFORE MAKING NEW UPDATES.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

.NONE.

&&

$$

CB







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