625
FXUS62 KRAH 141837
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
236 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Sub-tropical high pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the
Carolinas throughout the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 236 PM Monday...

* Isolated to scattered flash flooding will be possible this evening
  and overnight (as outlined in the latest day 1 ERO).   Antecedent
  wet ground will result in easier flooding development potential
  with any of the heavier downpours.
* Marginal risk for damaging wind gusts (level 1 of 5 svr threat)
  across the western half of our CWA per latest SWODY1.
* Widely scattered showers and tstms are already ongoing across
  central NC developing invof the Piedmont trough and along old
  outflow boundaries.  However, a slightly more organized band of
  showers and tstms will move across central NC between 01Z-09Z this
  evening and tonight (earliest west and latest east), with greatest
  coverage across the northern half of central NC.
* The driving force for the late-day storms is an upper short wave
  now moving across the Ohio Valley region and its associated sfc
  cold front.  While the cold front itself wont move across our
  area, the aforementioned storms will be triggered by a pre-frontal
  trough and subsequent outflow boundaries.
* Low temps in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 236 PM Monday...

* The synoptic front and deeper plume of high-pwat (2.1+ inch)
  moisture will be stalled across the Piedmont at 12Z Tuesday.
* As the day progresses, the ridge over the western Atlantic will
  gradually build westward, which will help push the aforementioned
  boundary and deeper moisture slightly westward.
* A secondary plume of high-pwat moisture attached to the sfc low
  and trough currently east of FL will lift north and west toward
  the Carolina coast, but any shower/tstm activity with that should
  remain to our east.
* The result from the above features will be a line of showers/tstms
  that develops over the high terrain to our west and drifts east
  across our Piedmont zones late in the afternoon and evening, while
  taking advantage of the more-western position of the high pwat
  plume. Thus, the best tstm coverage in this period will be across
  the western half of our CWA.
* Very isolated showers/tstms may be possible farther east earlier
  in the afternoon, but those will be the result of lingering old
  outflow boundaries from the near-term period.
* Given the ongoing high-pwat airmass, slow movement of the storms,
  and subsequent risk for flash flooding, central NC west of I-95 is
  included in the ERO day 2 marginal.
* As of now, we are not outlooked in SWODY2, and the reduced svr
  threat makes sense given the lower CAPE Tuesday versus today.
* Highs in the upper 80s north to lower 90s south.  Lows 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 236 PM Monday...

* Central NC weather through the Wed-Fri period will be dominated by
  ridging aloft extending across our area from the western Atlantic.
  The result will be at or perhaps even slightly below climo diurnal
  PoPs and above normal temps.
* The primary triggering mechanism for daytime shower/tstm activity
  will be the Piedmont trough and outflow boundaries.
* The ridge will erode some over the weekend as a series of short
  waves pass by to our north, thus look for increased diurnal
  shower/tstm coverage this weekend into early next week.
* The primary hazards during the long term will be heat-related Wed-
  Fri, then more in the way of lighting and heavy downpours for Sat-
  Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 148 PM Monday...

Scattered afternoon showers and storms may persist well into the
evening and possibly into the overnight hours, particularly near the
northern terminals, including KRDU and KRWI. Outside of convection,
VFR conditions are expected for the first half of tonight. However,
there are signals that areas of low stratus could develop across
much of the area between 06 to 12z, potentially resulting in a
period of MVFR to IFR restrictions before lifting to VFR during the
mid to late hours Tuesday morning(14 to 16z). Another round of
afternoon and evening storms are expected again Tuesday, with the
highest chances expected across the western Piedmont terminals.

Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure over the western Atlantic will
favor a typical summertime regime of scattered PM convection and
patchy late night and early morning fog/stratus through late week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/MWS
NEAR TERM...petro
SHORT TERM...petro
LONG TERM...petro
AVIATION...CBL/Badgett