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000
FXUS66 KSEW 171611
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN THROUGH TODAY WITH
DECREASING SHOWERS TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL ARRIVE LATER
SATURDAY AND LATER SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER GENERALLY WET. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING MOST
AREAS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER PRETTY FAST TONIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY FOR
A MOSTLY DRY DAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY LATER IN
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY.

A SECOND FRONT WILL BRING RAIN LATER SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF RAIN REACHING THE COAST AROUND
MID-MORNING AND SPREADING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL
PROBABLY BE A MAINLY DRY DAY IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A THIRD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND NOT SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA UNTIL AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EVEN MONDAY. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM OVER
THE NE PAC ON MON WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH WESTERN WA
FOR MORE RAIN. THE LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND TUE THROUGH
WED FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND
UNSTABLE WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 3000 FT. HOWEVER WITH THE LOW
OVERHEAD WE SHOULD HAVE GOOD MIXING AND WILL PROBABLY SEE AFTERNOON
SUNBREAKS. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON IS FORECAST TO
RISE TODAY WITH A CREST JUST UNDER 9 FEET THIS EVENING. THE RIVER
LEVEL WILL BEGIN FALLING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE FALLING ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE SLIDE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF ABOUT ONE INCH.

ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE SLIDE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROF OFFSHORE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NW LATER TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW BECOME STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE /PSCZ/ TO QUICKLY DEVELOP
BETWEEN KAWO AND KPAE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TODAY. THE PSCZ SHOULD
BECOME QUASISTATIONARY NEAR THE KING/SNOHOMISH COUNTY BORDER THIS
EVENING.

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 1-3K FT RANGE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY TODAY. RAIN WILL REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE 2-4SM RANGE AT TIMES.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT ABOUT 130 NM OFFSHORE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO RISE TO GALE FORCE
OVER PARTS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA BEHIND THE FRONT. A 1019 MB
HIGH ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST AND LOWER PRES E OF THE CASCADES
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON FRI. EXPECT A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO IMPACT THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ON THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WAVE WATCH MODEL INDICATED THAT
SEAS COULD REACH 15 TO 20 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTS GUIDANCE.
IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...WILL NEED TO BUMP UP WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS.

&&

$$

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