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000
FXXX12 KWNP 260030
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jan 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. A few weak C-class flares were
observed originating from the NW limb near old Region 2263 (N21, L=170),
from behind the east limb near N13 and from Region 2268 (S10E35,
Eki/beta-gamma). Region 2268 remained the largest and most complex
region on the disk, but was relatively stable over the period. New flux
emergence was observed near the NE and SE limbs. The other spotted
regions were little changed.

A slow-moving CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery lifting off the south
limb at about 24/1700 UTC. This CME was possibly associated with a
filament eruption observed in the SE quadrant midday on 24 Jan. Analysis
and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output determined there was no
Earth-directed component associated with this CME. A second CME was
observed in LASCO C2 imagery lifting off the NNW limb at about 25/1524
UTC. The source of this event appeared to be back-sided so no impact to
Earth is expected.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at mostly low levels with a chance
for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flaring over the next three days
(26-28 Jan). The most likely source for any significant flare activity
is Region 2268 and the return of old Region 2257 (N07, L=322) on or
about 26 Jan.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 147 pfu observed at
25/1625 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit
remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
forecast to be at normal to moderate levels through the forecast period
(26-28 Jan). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain
at background levels (below S1-Minor) through the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at the ACE satellite reflected nominal conditions.
Winds speeds ranged from a low of near 325 km/s to a high of about 390
km/s. Total field ranged from 1-10 nT while the Bz component was
variable between +5 nT to near -10 nT. Phi angle was in a consistently
negative (towards) orientation throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels through a
majority of the forecast period (26-28 Jan). Late on the 28th, a gradual
increase in density coupled with increases in wind speed, total field
strength and periods of enhanced negative Bz are expected. A co-rotating
interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high speed wind stream
from an extension off the southern polar crown is expected to bring
disturbed wind conditions.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated high latitude
unsettled period observed midday on 25 Jan.

.Forecast...
The large southern polar coronal hole appears to have settled further
south than previous rotations, thus its location is currently too far
south of the ecliptic plane to have any significant effect on Earths
geomagnetic field. However, an extension off the southern crown is
becoming apparent near the SE limb as viewed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery.

As a result, mostly quiet conditions are expected for the majority of
days one through three (26-28 Jan). Late on 28 Jan, quiet to unsettled
conditions are possible as the southern crown extension begins to rotate
into a geoeffective position.