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000
FXXX12 KWNP 201231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Dec 20 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels during the period as Region 2242
(S18W36, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X1/3b flare at 20/0028 UTC.
Associated with this event was a Type II radio sweep (900 km/s), 2300
sfu Tenflare, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) directed off the SW
limb.  We are currently waiting on further SOHO/LASCO coronagraph
imagery to determine if there is an Earth-directed component to the CME.

Penumbral area within the intermediate area of Region 2242 appeared to
be separating which separated the delta regions within the group.
Region 2241 (S10W13, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) was relatively stable and
quiet over the period, however it retains a transverse delta within its
trailing spots.  Flux emergence and growth was observed in new Region
2244 (S05E45, Cao/beta).  The rest of the spotted regions were either
stable or in decay.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
levels with a chance for further X-class flaring (R3-Strong or greater)
for the next three days (20-22 Dec) as Regions 2241 and 2242 remain
large and magnetically complex.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the forecast period (20-22 Dec). There is a chance
for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) due to the potential
for significant flare activity from Regions 2241 or 2242.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued at nominal levels through the period.
There are currently no signs of the impending arrival of the 17 Dec CME
as of the time of this report.  Solar wind speeds ranged from 323 km/s
to 413 km/s with the total field relatively steady near 6 nT.  The Bz
component was variable between +/- 6 nT, while the phi angle was
oriented in a positive (away) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on day one
and through the rest of the period (20-22 Dec) as a pair of CMEs are
expected to impact the geomagnetic field.  The first is a potential
glancing blow from the 17 Dec CME, expected late on day one (20 Dec).
Another CME, from 18 Dec, is expected by midday on day two (21 Dec).
Solar wind speeds reaching the 650-750 km/s range are estimated with the
arrival of the 18 Dec CME.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expecting to continue at mostly quiet
conditions until the latter half of the UTC day on day one (20 Dec) when
a glancing blow from the 17 Dec CME is expected to become geoeffective.
Unsettled to active periods with a chance for minor storm periods
(G1-Minor) is expected to dominate through early on day two (21 Dec).
By approximately midday on day two, another CME, from 18 Dec, is
expected to cause minor to major storming (G1-G2, Minor-Moderate) and
continue through early on day three (22 Dec).  Unsettled to active
periods are expected to persist through the majority of day three.



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