Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 291232
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Aug 29 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels due to C-class activity from Region
2583 (N13W60, Dao/beta) to include a C2/Sf observed at 29/0346 UTC.
Region 2583 was mostly stable and Region 2582 (N08W61, Cao/beta)
exhibited minor decay this period.  The remaining regions were in slight
decay.  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance
for C-class flares over the next three days (29-31 Aug).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period
with a peak flux of 2,161 pfu observed at 28/1605 UTC.  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the
period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels on
day one (29 Aug) followed by normal levels on days two and three (30-31
Aug) in response to enhanced geomagnetic field activity.  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were steady at background levels throughout the
period.  Solar wind speeds slowly decreased from 400 km/s to 320 km/s,
then increased to 350 km/s late in the period.  Bt was steady near 4 nT
for most of the period then increased to about 7 nT late in the period.
The Bz component was predominately northward to +4 nT with a southward
tendency to -4 nT late in the period.  Phi angle orientation was
predominately negative with a sector change to positive observed about
29/1000 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced beginning late on
day one through day three (29-31 Aug) due to the influence of a positive
polarity CH HSS.  Solar wind speeds around 500-550 km/s are anticipated
as this high speed solar wind stream passes Earth.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period under a nominal
solar wind regime.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels late on day one through early on day two (29-30 Aug) due to the
influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.  Quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected on day three (31 Aug) as CH HSS influence begins to wane.



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