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000
FXXX12 KWNP 011231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Oct 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low and no sunspot regions were observed this
period.  A filament centered near N25E20 was observed erupting in
SDO/AIA 193 imagery beginning at 01/0125 UTC.  An associated CME was
first seen in C2 coronagraph imagery at 01/0236 UTC and analysis is
underway to determine if this event has an Earth-directed component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a slight
change for C-class flare activity, over the next three days (01-03 Oct).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached very high levels with a
peak flux of 74,718 pfu observed at 30/1740 UTC.  The greater than 10
MeV electron flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV flux is expected to continue at high to very high
flux levels over the next three days (01-03 Oct).  The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout
the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the weakening influence of a positive
polarity CH HSS this period.  Total magnetic field strength values were
steady near 5 nT and Bz varied between +/- 4 nT.  Solar wind speed
generally decreased from initial values near 650 km/s to end-of-period
values near 530 km/s.  The phi angle was steady in a positive solar
sector orientation throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue a slow return to
near-background levels over the next three days (01-03 Oct) as CH HSS
influence subsides and a nominal solar wind regime returns.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels this period due to waning CH HSS influence.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels on day one (01 Oct) and active levels on days two and three
(02-03 Oct) as CH HSS influence wanes.