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000
FXXX12 KWNP 151231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Mar 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 2002 (S18W25,
Ehc/beta-gamma) produced a C3 x-ray flare at 15/0026 UTC. The region
exhibited penumbral growth within its intermediate spots. Region 2003
(N05W71, Eac/beta-gamma) produced a few C-class x-ray events during the
period, the largest a C5 at 15/0940 UTC. Separation and penumbra
development was observed in the regions trailer spots resulting in an
overall increase in area. Region 2006 (N12W68, Dsi/beta) exhibited rapid
penumbra development in both the leader and trailer spots with an
increase in spot area noted. New Region 2008 (S11E79, Hsx/alpha) rotated
onto the disk. All other regions were quiet and stable. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) during the forecast period (15-17 Mar), with a slight
chance for an X-class flare (R3 Strong).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at normal levels during the forecast period (15-17 Mar). The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor) for the next three days
(15-17 Mar).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speed at ACE began the period at about 450 km/s and gradually
declined to end-of-period speeds near 390 km/s. Phi was in a positive
(away) orientation through about 15/0500 UTC when a switch to a more
negative (towards) orientation occurred. Bz varied from -4 to +5 nT
early in the period. After 14/2000 UTC, Bz did not vary much beyond +/-
2 nT. Bt reached a maximum of 9 nT early in the period and remained
steady at about 5 nT for a majority of the time.

.Forecast...
Day one (15 Mar) is expected to see generally nominal solar wind
conditions. Solar wind speed is expected to increase on days two to
three (16-17 Mar) as northern and southern hemisphere coronal hole high
speed streams (CH HSS) move into a geoeffective position.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to begin the period at mostly quiet
levels through day one (15 Mar). Days two to three (16-17 Mar) are
expected to bring quiet to unsettled levels, with a slight chance for
active conditions on day two, as northern and southern hemisphere CH HSS
interact with Earth.