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000
FXXX12 KWNP 070031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Mar 07 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels this period.  Newly-numbered
Region 2297 (S17E81, Hrx/alpha) produced an M3 flare at 06/0457 UTC and
an M1 flare at 06/0815 UTC which were the largest events of the period.
Region 2297s proximity to the eastern limb made it difficult to
accurately determine its sunspot classification and magnetic complexity.
New Region 2296 (S11E24, Bxo/beta) was numbered this period but was
otherwise unremarkable.  Region 2293 (N05W68, Axx/alpha) continued to
decay throughout the period.

A pair of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with the two R1
(Minor) events were observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery.  The
first CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 643 km/s and was first
observed at 05/0449 UTC.  The second CME had estimated plane-of-sky
speed of 1,017 km/s and was first observed at 05/0712 UTC.  Analysis of
these events indicates that neither is Earth-directed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over the next three days (07-09
Mar) with Region 2297 being the likely source of subsequent flare
activity.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
this period, reaching a peak flux value of 274 pfu at 06/0010 UTC.  The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the
period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over the next three days (07-09 Mar) and the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels for
the next three days (07-09 Mar).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slightly enhanced solar wind
regime. Solar wind speeds gradually increased from initial values near
400 km/s to end-of-period values around 500 km/s.  IMF total field
values were between 1-10 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward component
of -9 nT.  The phi angle was oriented in a mostly positive (away from
the Sun) orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced beginning after
1200 UTC on day one (07 Mar) due to the influence of a co-rotating
interaction region (CIR) ahead of coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS) effects.  Wind speeds are expected to increase to around 550-625
km/s on days two and three (08-09 Mar) as the positive polarity CH HSS
moves into geoeffective position.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated
period of active conditions observed between 06/0600-0900 UTC due to a
period of southward Bz.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on days one and
two (07-08 Mar) due to the onset of a co-rotating interaction region
(CIR) on day one followed by the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS
on day two.  Field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on day three (09 Mar) as CH HSS influence continues.