Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 030030
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Aug 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2390 (S15W91, Cso/beta) produced the
majority of the B-class activity as it rotated around the west limb.  An
unnumbered region behind the southeastern limb produced a long-duration
B7 flare at 02/2120 UTC. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was
observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 02/2148 UTC
but was not Earth-directed.  Regions 2391 (N07W10, Axx/alpha) and 2393
(N18E08, Cro/beta) both showed signs of decay. New spots appear to be
rotating onto the northeast limb, but were not in view enough to be
numbered at the time of this report. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class
activity for the next three days (03-05 Aug).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
with an observed peak flux of 720 pfu at 02/1855 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels through the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels for the forecast period (03-05 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained enhanced under the waning influence of a
negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind
speeds decreased overall from about 650 km/s to near 540 km/s. Total
field ranged between 4 nT to 6 nT while the Bz component was variable
between +/-6 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a negative (towards) sector
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
A slow decline towards background levels is expected during the next
three days as CH HSS effects subside.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels under CH HSS
influence.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
days one and two (03-04 Aug) as CH HSS activity subsides. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day three (05 Aug) as coronal hole
effects diminish.



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