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000
FXXX12 KWNP 140031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Jul 14 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels.  Region 2109 (S08W72, Dho/beta)
produced a C6/1f flare at 13/0903 UTC which was the largest event of the
period.

Regions 2108 (S07W89, Eai/beta-gamma) and 2109 were relatively stable
this period but both regions remain a threat for parting-shot flare
activity as they approach the west limb.  Region 2013 (N07W18, Eao/beta)
exhibited growth in areal extent and spot count late in the period while
the other regions were either stable or in decay.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed this
period.

.Forecast...
M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity is likely with a slight
chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flares over the next three days (14 -
16 Jul).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels
for the next three days (14 - 16 Jul).  The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to be at background levels for the next three days (14
- 16 Jul) with a slight chance for an enhancement at or above the S1
(Minor) threshold on day one (14 Jul) if significant flare activity
occurs.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels.  Solar wind speeds were
steady at around 350 km/s, IMF total field values ranged between 3-11
nT, and Bz reached a maximum southward component of around -5 nT early
in the period.  The phi angle was steady in a positive (away) sector
orientation throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to become slightly elevated (~400-450
km/s) over the next three days (14 - 16 Jul) due to the glancing-blow
arrival of the 09 Jul CME and on 14 Jul and a recurrent solar sector
boundary crossing (SSBC) on 15 - 16 Jul.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
day one (14 Jul) due to the arrival of the 09 Jul CME.  Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on days two and three (14 - 16 Jul), with
a chance for isolated periods of active conditions on day two (14 Jul),
due to a SSBC.