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FXXX12 KWNP 071230

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Oct 07 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low with only a few low level B-class flares
observed. Region 2427 (N16W79, Cso/beta) was mostly inactive and stable,
but did manage to produce the largest flare of the period, a B5/Sf flare
at 07/0758 UTC. Region 2429 (S17E49, Bxo/beta) remained quiescent during
the period.

An approximately fourteen degree long filament, centered near S28W63,
was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery lifting off the SW limb from
approximately 07/0214 - 0813 UTC. Shortly after that, an approximately
ten degree long filament was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery lifting off
the SE quadrant of the solar disk, centered near S32E28, from 07/0858 to
07/0959 UTC. No LASCO coronagraph imagery was available at the time of
this discussion. Further analysis will be accomplished as imagery
becomes available to determine if there were any coronal mass ejections
associated with these filaments.

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for
C-class flares for the forecast period (07-09 Oct).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels during
the period, reaching a peak flux of 6,928 pfu at 06/1740 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected be at normal levels for
days one and two (07-08 Oct) following the redistribution of particles
due to the passage of the co-rotating interaction region (CIR). Levels
are expected to increase to normal to moderate on day three (09 Oct) as
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence continues. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background (Below
S1-Minor) levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were near background levels for the first half of
the period. Solar wind speeds averaged near 400 km/s, total field
strength (Bt) ranged between 5 and 10 nT, while Bz varied between +/- 5
nT. The phi angle was in a mostly positive (away from the Sun)
orientation, occasionally reaching into a negative (towards the Sun)
sector at the beginning of the period.

Shortly after 07/0200 UTC, the magnetic field experienced an enhancement
as Bt increased to 14 nT initially, eventually seeing values near 20 nT.
Simultaneously, Bz saw a southward deviation near -10 nT and wind speeds
began climbing, eventually reaching a peak speed just below 500 km/s.
These enhancements are believed to be associated with the onset of the

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced for the majority
of day one (07 Oct) as influence from the positive polarity, equatorial
CH HSS continues. CH HSS effects should begin to wane near the end of
day one into day two (08 Oct). Early on day two, an enhancement in solar
wind parameters is possible due to prolonged southward Bz combined with
night time sector effects. Day three (09 Oct) is likely to see a
decrease in activity as CH HSS effects continue to wane.  However, an
isolated period of substorming could cause another short-lived
disturbance in the solar wind environment.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels to begin the
summary period. Shortly after the turn of the UT day, conditions
initially increased to active levels, but eventually reached Major
(G2-Moderate) storm conditions as the anticipated CIR began coupling
with the Earths magnetosphere.

The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at minor (G1-Minor) storm
levels, with Major (G2-Moderate) storm levels possible for the remainder
of day one (07 Oct) into the early hours of day two (08 Oct). Active to
minor storm (G1) levels are expected through the end of day two and into
the early portion of day three (9 Oct) due to substorming effects. The
remaining part of 9 Oct should see quiet to unsettled conditions as CH
HSS effects begin to subside. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.