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579
FXXX12 KWNP 170030
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Oct 17 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained very low. New Region 2684 decayed to plage. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels the next three
days (17-19 Oct).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached very high levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at high levels
all three days (17-19 Oct) due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three
days.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect weakening influence of a CH
HSS. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 3-6 nT; no significant
periods of southward Bz were observed. Solar wind speeds gradually
declined from speeds near 550 km/s to near 520 km/s by the periods end.
Phi angle was predominantly positive throughout the day.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly elevated early
on day one (17 Oct) with decreasing strength of the CH HSS.  Solar wind
parameters are likely to undergo an additional enhancement late on day
two and three (18-19 Oct)as a second positive polarity CH HSS becomes
geoeffective.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with waning CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly unsettled levels on
day one (17 Oct) as CH HSS effects continue to wane. Active conditions
are likely to return late on days two and three (18-19 Oct) due to the
onset of another positive polarity CH HSS.