Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 280031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 May 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Only B-class flares were observed. Region
2548 (N13W49, Dsi/beta) remained relatively stable. A disappearing solar
filament (DSF) was observed lifting off of the visible disk at
approximately 27/0100 UTC in SDO/AIA 304 imagery. The majority of the
ejecta appeared to get reabsorbed. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flares throughout the forecast period (28-30 May) due to the flare
history of Region 2548.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on days one through three (28-30 May). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background values.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was nominal until approximately 27/0100 UTC
when a SSBC occurred which changed the phi angle from a positive to a
negative solar sector orientation. At the same time an enhancement was
noted in the interplanetary magnetic field when Bt jumped from 2 to 8 nT
and gradually increased to a peak of 13 nT. Bz was variable with a
maximum southward deviation of -8 nT. Wind speed displayed a steady
increase starting the period near 345 km/s and ending the period at
approximately 470 km/s. This solar wind signature, measured at the ACE
spacecraft, is indicative of a weak, negative-polarity CH HSS.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain slightly enhanced under
the effects of the above mentioned CH HSS through the early part of day
one (28 May). Late on day two (29 May), an additional enhancement is
anticipated due to the arrival of another negative-polarity CH HSS
located in the northwest quadrant of the solar disk.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on day one
(28 May) as CH HSS effects wane. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected on day two (29 May) with active periods late in the day due
to the anticipated arrival of another negative polarity CH HSS.
Unsettled to active conditions are expected on day three (30 May) with
an isolated minor storm period likely due to continued CH HSS effects.



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