Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
905 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016


...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
...The Spring Flood Outlook calls for an above normal potential for
river flooding in Central Alabama...

Historically for Central Alabama...the river flood season begins in
early to mid January...with the number of river flood events
increasing through late winter with a peak in early to mid March...
and mostly ending in late April.

Streamflows are currently running at or above normal over all of
Central Alabama. Medium and long range precipitation guidance hints
at continued wet weather through April. Therefore...the expecation
is for the number of river floods and the magnitude of those river
floods to be higher than typical through April.

Current Streamflows...The 14-Day Average Streamflows provided by the
United States Geological Survey (USGS) as of March 2nd are running
near or above normal across all of Central Alabama.

Past Precipitation...Precipitation over the last 30 days...based on
Southeast River Forecast Center (SERFC) multisensor precipitation
estimates...has been most above normal across Central Alabama. As a
result, heavy rain has fallen in the headwater of many of our larger
river systems. This means that even though we may have seen some
below normal precipitation in a few areas...rivers remain high from
water flowing downstream from the headwaters. This is why streamflows
remain in the normal to above normal range in most of Central
Alabama.

Winter rainfall across Central Alabama has generally averaged
between fifteen and twenty five inches.

Location                   Rainfall December through February

Hamilton                               25.43 inches
Jasper                                 20.22 inches
Birmingham                             21.27 inches
Tuscaloosa                             17.87 inches
Anniston                               18.13 inches
Demopolis                              20.59 inches
Selma                                  21.18 inches
Montgomery                             24.79 inches
Alexander City                         22.55 inches
Troy                                   20.27 inches

Soil Moisture...The rainfall pattern this winter has resulted in
soil moisture profiles that are wetter than normal. Calculated soil
moisture percentiles from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) through
the end of February are running 40 to over 80 percent of normal
across Central Alabama.

Reservoirs...Most reservoirs remain near their target pools for this
time of year. However, there are some reservoirs that are above their
target pools and continue to release water to try and get back to
the target pools for the current date. This is one more factor that
has kept streamflows at or above normal in most areas.

Future Precipitation...The latest medium range meteorological models
indicate a continued wet weather pattern with rainfall events
impacting the area once or twice a week. The latest CPC 8 to 14 Day
Outlook is indicating above normal precipitation and above normal
temperatures through mid March.

As far as longer term precipitation outlooks...based on the CPC Long
Lead Outlook...ENSO (El Nino) will continue to have an impact on
rainfall in the southeast. The latest CPC 3-Month Outlook indicates
above normal chances of precipitation across most of the southeast.
See the Climate Prediction Center web site for more details.

   www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

The SERFC issues a variety of products throughout the year to update
the outlook for water resources. The SERFC Water Resources Outlook
is updated every two to three weeks.

For the latest multimedia version of the Water Resources
Outlook...go to...

   www.weather.gov/serfc and click on the

Water Resource menu.

For detailed web information concerning river stages and forecasts
for Central Alabama...go to:

   http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=bmx

For Precipitation Analysis...go to:

   http;//water.weather.gov/precip/

For Precipitation Forecasts...go to;

   www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/?n=qpfpage

Questions/Comments?...Contact Roger McNeil, Service Hydrologist by
e-mail at roger.mcneil@noaa.gov or by phone at 205-664-3010.

$$




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