Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
212 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2017

...2017 Spring Flood Outlook for Southeaast Louisiana...Southwest
Mississippi...and Coastal Mississippi...

...Flood Risk is Average on Rivers Across the Region....

This outlook considers antecedent rainfall, snowpack, soil
moisture, streamflow and water supply conditions compared to
climatology, combined with longer-term 90-day climate outlook
forecasts for temperatures and precipitation across the forecast
area.

The primary factor in the development of significant river
flooding over most of the region is the occurrence of excessive
rainfall in relatively short periods of time, even for areas where
drought conditions persist or have developed.


...Lower Mississippi River...

The flood season has been uneventful on the Ohio and Mississippi
Rivers. Streamflows have been near to below normal and no flooding
has occurred this season. The current forecast shows no flooding
over the next couple of weeks but higher flows will occur later
into March.

See the chart below for specific locations showing percent of normal
streamflows:

                                            3/1
Mississippi River    Vicksburg MS           66%
Mississippi River    Natchez MS             70%
Mississippi River Red River Landing LA      75%
Mississippi River     Baton Rouge LA        74%
Mississippi River     New Orleans LA        74%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflow conditions, and normal spring
rainfall patterns; an Average Flood Potential is expected along the lower
Mississippi. The magnitude of future crests will depend on the
amount and extent of any upstream accumulation of snow cover and
resultant snowmelt; coupled with the frequency, intensity, and
extent of spring rains.

...Lower Pearl River...

Soil moisture content and streamflows have been normal to below
seasonal averages. No flooding is occurring or expected over the
next several days. Observed daily streamflows as a percent of
median are given below.

Pearl River                  Columbia MS      23%
Pearl River                  Bogalusa LA      24%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; an Average Flood Potential is expected over the Pearl River
Basin.

...Amite/Comite/Northshore Drainage Basins...

During the winter, seasonal rainfall in January produced some minor flooding in
the basin. No flooding is occurring or expected over the next several days. Soil
moisture content and streamflows are near seasonal levels. Observed daily
streamflows as a percent of median are given below.

                                              3/1
Amite River                Darlington LA      41%
Amite River            Denham Springs LA      68%
Comite River             Olive Branch LA     128%
Tchefuncte River               Folsom LA     103%
Tickfaw River                  Holden LA      63%
Tangipahoa River               Robert LA      70%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; an Average Flood Potential is expected over the Amite, Comite,
and Northshore River Basins.

...Pascagoula Basin in south Mississippi...

Seasonal rainfall in January caused minor flooding over portions of the basin.
No flooding is occurring or expected over the next several days. Soil moisture
contetnt is near seasonal levels while streamflows are running below normal.
Observed daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below.

Pascagoula River              Merrill MS      54%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; an Average Flood Potential is expected over the Pascagoula River
Basin.

...Extended Temperature and Precipitation Outlook...

The 8-14 Day Outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center indicates
chances of above normal temperatures. Chances of below normal precipitation
are expected over Gulf Coast and Tennessee Valley while equal chances of
above/below normal precipitation is expected over the remainder of the lower
Mississippi Valley.

The 30 Day Outlook indicates chances of above normal temperatures across the
area. Equal chances of above/below normal precipitation is indicated over the
lower Mississippi Valley.

The 90 Day Outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center indicates
chances of above normal temperatures over the lower Mississippi Valley. Equal
chances of above/below normal precipitation is indicated over the lower
Mississippi Valley.

This will be the last scheduled springflood outlook for 2017.


$$



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