Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 262037

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

A mid/upper ridge will build over much of the western US this
weekend into early next week. West/southwesterly flow aloft will
persist over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, with
several embedded/weak impulses advancing across the region through
much of the extended. To the south, conditions should gradually turn
warmer/drier across parts of the Great Basin, as heights rise
through next week.

...Dry-Thunderstorm Threat...
One of the aforementioned impulses will approach the northern
Rockies on D3/Fri, providing weak mid-level forcing for ascent.
Forecast soundings indicate this forcing will combine with
sufficient mid-level buoyancy for isolated thunderstorm activity
along higher terrain. Sufficiently deep boundary-layer profiles
suggest some of this convection will remain relatively dry,
enhancing the threat of lightning-induced ignitions. As such, the
10% area is maintained with some minor adjustments. After D3/Fri,
other very minor mid-level shortwave troughs may encourage a few
thunderstorms across the interior Pacific Northwest and Great Basin.
However, due to the low predictability of such features, as well as
the relatively low-end nature of this threat, no areas are
introduced beyond D3/Fri.

...Gusty Winds/Low RH Threat...
A surface front attendant to the aforementioned northern Rockies
impulse will push across northern Montana on D3/Fri. While winds
will not be particularly strong, breezy conditions appear probable
to overlap receptive fuels and warm/dry conditions. Therefore, the
ongoing 40% area is maintained to account for potential
elevated/locally critical concerns during the afternoon and evening.

..Picca.. 07/26/2017

...Please see for graphic product...

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