Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
000
FNUS28 KWNS 232112
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VALID 251200Z - 011200Z

MOST OF THE CONUS WILL BE ENCOMPASSED BY LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
WILL PROGRESS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST DURING THE WEEK...WITH A
POSSIBLE PHASING OF TWO OF THESE TROUGHS ACROSS THE NERN CONUS BY
D4/WED-D5/THU. IN RESPONSE AT THE SFC...ONE TRANSIENT SFC CYCLONE
WILL PROGRESS E ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/MIDWEST...WHILE A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS N/NE ALONG/OFFSHORE THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. BEHIND THESE TWO SYSTEMS...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY
LOW FIRE WX CONCERNS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS.

...SRN CA...
ACROSS THE WEST...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING
SITUATED ALONG THE WEST COAST. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS SRN CA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...WITH AN ENHANCEMENT IN OFFSHORE FLOW LIKELY EARLY ON
D3/TUE...AS SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN IS STRENGTHENED IN
THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS.
WITH TWO PRIOR DAYS OF DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
REGIME...PRECONDITIONING OF FUELS AND LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND
8-15 PERCENT WILL BE PRESENT D3/TUE-D4/WED. WHILE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW A GENERAL WEAKENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT BY
D4...CONTINUED DRYING OF FINE FUELS AND THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
COLUMN NECESSITATE THE CONTINUATION OF THE 40-PERCENT DELINEATION
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AND RH VALUES WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE...AS RIDGING ALOFT SUBSIDES AND
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

..PICCA.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.