Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 302152
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

VALID 011200Z - 071200Z

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST ON D3/MON AND THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW RELATED TO THIS TROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED/POTENTIALLY CRITICAL
FIRE-WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. SOME THREAT OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PERSIST FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.

...GREAT BASIN EWD TO THE NRN ROCKIES...
ON D3/MON...ELEVATED WIND/RH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS
OF NERN CA/SERN ORE NEWD INTO THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN OF IDAHO AND
ADJACENT RANGES...DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODESTLY ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONCURRENT WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES LESS THAN 15
PERCENT. LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER COMPARED TO D2/SUN AND D4/TUE. ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM CNTRL/ERN NV EWD INTO SWRN
WY...ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME.

FOR D4/TUE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE STRONG UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A CRITICAL-WIND/RH THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN OF
IDAHO AND ADJACENT RANGES OF ERN ID/SWRN MT...WHERE SUSTAINED WLY
WINDS OF AT LEAST 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS MINIMUM RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE. SOME EXPANSION OF THE CRITICAL AREA IS
POSSIBLE INTO PORTIONS OF THE NRN GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES...AS
DETAILS REGARDING THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE STRONGEST
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE RESOLVED.

ALSO ON D4/TUE...ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
NRN UT NWD INTO SRN/CNTRL MT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GREATER
COVERAGE IF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS
WELL TIMED WITH PEAK HEATING/INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.

ON D5/WED...WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FURTHER
EWD...RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ELEVATED/POTENTIALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS FROM SRN ID EWD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. DUE TO INCREASING PREDICTABILITY
CONCERNS AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS...ONLY 40-PERCENT AREAS WILL BE DELINEATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR D6/THU - D8/SAT...SOME TEMPORARY DECREASE IN THE FIRE-WEATHER
THREAT IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE...WITH
INCREASING MODEL SPREAD NOTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..DEAN.. 07/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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