Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 122145
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VALID 141200Z - 201200Z

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST...AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY.
THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ASHORE THE WEST COAST. BETWEEN
THESE TWO...BROAD RIDGING WILL PROGRESS FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS TO
THE MS VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. OVERALL...THE MID-LEVEL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

...D3/SUN-D4/MON -- SOUTHERN CA...
AS AT LEAST TWO IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CA COAST TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA...SFC
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN NV. IN RESPONSE...NELY FLOW SHOULD
INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
/ESPECIALLY IN TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS/...AS AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. WITH A DRY AIR MASS ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTHEAST AND
WARMING DOWNSLOPE FLOW PRESENT...RH VALUES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15-20
PERCENT IN MANY LOCATIONS. WHILE LIVE FUELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
RECEPTIVE TO FIRE SPREAD...DEAD/DRY FINE FUELS SHOULD SUPPORT A
GREATER THREAT. THEREFORE...40-PERCENT AREAS ARE INTRODUCED FOR
D3/SUN-D4/MON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN CA.

...D5/TUE-D8/FRI -- SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...RESULTING FROM THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A CONSIDERABLY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. WHILE PERIODS OF MODEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX/OK DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...AREAS
FARTHER WEST -- ERN NM...TX/OK PANHANDLES...SWRN KS -- WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TO THE WEST OF MORE APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE TIMING OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES /AND
ATTENDANT INCREASES IN MID-LEVEL FLOW AND LEE
TROUGHING/...DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST RELATIVELY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN STRONG/DRY SWLY FLOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION ON
D7/THU...AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THEREFORE...A 40-PERCENT AREA IS INTRODUCED FROM ERN NM TO SWRN
KS...AND A 70-PERCENT AREA MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER UPDATES.
ADDITIONALLY...40-PERCENT AREAS MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR D6/WED AND
D8/FRI.

..PICCA.. 02/12/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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