Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 042008
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

VALID 061200Z - 121200Z

THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST D5/WED AND WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.  JUST WEST OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST...A CUT-OFF LOW WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STATIONARY FROM D3/MON THROUGH D5/WED...THEN BEGIN A SLOW EASTWARD
TREK INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS
SUBSTANTIALLY WITH REGARD TO THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS
WAVE...LENDING LOWER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE REGARDING SENSIBLE
WEATHER EFFECTS OF THIS WAVE ON THE WESTERN U.S. BEYOND D5/WED.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK...WHILE MID-LEVEL MOISTENING AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY
IMPACT FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING PARTS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...D3/MON THROUGH D4/TUE: PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
WARM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH CRITICAL RH VALUES EXISTING FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AMIDST DRY/VERY DRY FUELS SUPPORTIVE
OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH.  MID-LEVEL MOISTENING AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC COMBINED WITH
STRONG INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS TERRAIN FAVORED AREAS OF OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE WETTING
RAINS TO PARTS OF THE AREA GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS/SLOW
MOVEMENT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 0.6 INCH IN
SOUTHERN OREGON TO AOA 1 INCH IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.
GIVEN DRY FUELS IN THE REGION...CONCERN REMAINS THAT LIGHTNING
STRIKES IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE WETTING RAINS MAY LEAD TO FIRE
STARTS AND RAPID FIRE GROWTH.  WEAK NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS /AROUND
10-15 MPH/ SHOULD LIMIT A HIGHER FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DUE TO TERRAIN-ENHANCED WIND GUSTS.
PROBABILITIES WILL BE RETAINED FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WILL NOT BE ISSUED FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER GIVEN THE CURRENT
NATURE OF THE THREAT.  THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE NEED OF
INCREASED PROBABILITIES IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...D7/FRI-D8/SAT JULY 11: SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST IN PARTS OF THE REGION AS ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS DRY AREAS DURING PERIODS OF PEAK HEATING.
 THIS POTENTIAL IS DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-OFF LOW
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND EXACT TIMING OF THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE REMAINS INCONSISTENTLY DEPICTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE.  THIS
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.

..COOK.. 07/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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