Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 282039
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VALID 301200Z - 051200Z

MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CHARACTERIZE THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NWRN CONUS FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK...WHILE A RIDGE AFFECTS AREAS FARTHER E. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERIODICALLY
ENHANCE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW/SFC WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN
GREAT BASIN AND CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES...POTENTIALLY YIELDING ELEVATED
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF LOW SFC RH.

AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE OF ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS -- AND PERHAPS BORDERLINE-CRITICAL CONDITIONS -- WILL
EXIST ACROSS AREAS FROM CNTRL AND SWRN MT TO ADJACENT ERN ID AND
FROM SRN NV TO E-CNTRL WY ON D3/SUN AS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES
FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE NRN ROCKIES. SIMILARLY...ELEVATED TO
BORDERLINE-CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR FROM CNTRL/NRN NV TO
E-CNTRL WY ON D6/WED AS MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE NWRN-CONUS CYCLONIC-FLOW PATTERN.
IN BOTH INSTANCES...HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND THE BULK OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST THAT NO MORE THAN MARGINALLY STRONG WINDS WOULD ALIGN WITH
LOW RH. AS SUCH...CRITICAL AREAS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS
TIME.

ADDITIONAL INSTANCES OF ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS OTHER AREAS FROM THE CNTRL/NRN GREAT BASIN TO THE
CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE D3/SUN-D8/FRI PERIOD.
HOWEVER...DISPARITIES AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS...COUPLED WITH LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO COMBINE WITH LOW RH AS DEPICTED BY THE
BULK OF THESE SOLUTIONS...PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC
DELINEATIONS AT THIS TIME.

..COHEN.. 08/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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