Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS28 KWNS 191933
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 211200Z - 271200Z

AN AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL EMERGE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THE DAY 3-8 PERIOD. STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS...DEEPENING AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH DAY 4/MON. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES ON SHORE
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. BY THURSDAY/DAY 7 MORNING...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST CANADA TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
MON/TUE-DAYS 4/5. SOME STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. WHILE A
DRY AIRMASS WILL ALIGN WITH THESE STRONG WINDS...COOL TEMPERATURES
WILL PRECLUDE RH VALUES FROM FALLING TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
ADDITIONALLY...RECENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY MOIST FUEL CONDITIONS.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST PUSHES EASTWARD AROUND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY-DAYS 5/6...SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CA. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION WILL
TEMPER THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD AND RESULT IN A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...FALLING HEIGHTS AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES MAY
LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME GIVEN
RUN-TO-RUN MODEL FORECAST INCONSISTENCIES.

..LEITMAN.. 12/19/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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