Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS28 KWNS 242127
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VALID 261200Z - 021200Z

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...LARGE-SCALE RIDGING WILL BE SITUATED ALONG THE
WEST COAST...WHILE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE RESULTANT SFC PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY A WEAKENING LOW TRANSITING ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY...WHILE A RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL LOW PROGRESSES N/NE ALONG
THE ERN SEABOARD. FARTHER WEST...A GREAT BASIN HIGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO AT LEAST PART OF D4/THU...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF
OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS SRN CA...ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING STATE.

BY THE WEEKEND...MUCH MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONUS. WITH STRENGTHENING WLY WINDS ALOFT...SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE
IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGHING AND DIURNAL MIXING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. A COMBINATION OF A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS AND DOWNSLOPE
FLOW COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL FIRE WX CONCERNS BY D6/SAT.
HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE
AMOUNT OF WARMING/DRYING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE. AS
SUCH...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS ARE NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

...COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA...
D3/WED WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL OFFSHORE FLOW
IN COMBINATION WITH CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES...WITH THE GREATEST
FIRE WX THREAT PROBABLY REALIZED EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE OVERALL
TREND FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A DECREASING SFC
PRES GRADIENT AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES AND THE GREAT BASIN
HIGH WEAKENS. AS SUCH...WHILE LOW RH VALUES AND WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE BEYOND D3/WED AND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...WEAKENING
WINDS PRECLUDE 40-PERCENT DELINEATION FOR D4/THU AND ONWARD.

..PICCA.. 11/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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