Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS28 KWNS 191928
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VALID 211200Z - 271200Z

FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND AN
UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NWWD INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. ON D3/SUN...UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST WHILE AN UPSTREAM RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS. ON D3/SUN AND D4/MON...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CREST OF THIS RIDGE...FROM THE GREAT BASIN NEWD INTO THE
NRN ROCKIES AND THEN EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. COMBINATION OF THIS
UPPER LOW AND THE ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER RIDGE TO
DEAMPLIFY AND SHIFT WWD TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST/NRN MEXICO. WET TSTMS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AS EXPECTED ON D3/SUN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH NV. THERE IS A LOW BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE THAT SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY OCCURS IN NE CA EARLY ON D3/SUN. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
EWD ON D4/MON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCES THE PACIFIC NW WITH
ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE D4/MON AFTERNOON OVER THE CASCADES.

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW COAST ON
D5/TUE. UPPER LOW WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY OCCLUDE BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE REGION BUT MODERATE TO STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM NRN CA THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW FROM D5/TUE
THROUGH D7/THU. BEST OVERLAP OF DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE ON D5/TUE AND D6/WED AND ELEVATED AREAS HAVE BEEN DELINEATED FROM
NERN CA NEWD INTO E-CNTRL ORE WITH THIS FORECAST. REFINEMENT OF
THESE AREAS IS LIKELY IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS AS MODEL AND FUEL
GUIDANCE CHANGES.

..MOSIER.. 09/19/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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