Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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443
FNUS21 KWNS 140846
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ERN PACIFIC WITH SURROUNDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING OVER
THE WRN CONUS. MEANWHILE...BROADLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS. SUBSIDENCE
DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING SFC ANTICYCLONE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN.

...SRN CA COASTAL RANGES/ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND VICINITY...
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA WILL TIGHTEN
THROUGH TONIGHT...TO THE SW OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
STRENGTHENING SFC ANTICYCLONE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
NELY TO ENELY SFC WINDS.

FOR TODAY...NELY TO ENELY SFC WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO
COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MIDDLE
TEENS AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE-NORMAL READINGS -- I.E. IN THE
70S AND 80S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS
GIVEN AREAS OF DRY FUELS. BORDERLINE-CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS.

BY LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...NELY TO ENELY WINDS WILL HAVE
STRENGTHENED IN MANY AREAS...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE
IN SOME AREAS -- STRONGEST THROUGH FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS.
ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL TEND TO SUPPORT
SUFFICIENT RH RECOVERY -- ALBEIT MODEST AS RH VALUES HOLD IN THE 20S
AND 30S IN SOME AREAS -- TO LIMIT THE CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

GIVEN THE MORE PROMINENT STRENGTHENING OF SFC WINDS AFTER PEAK
HEATING...THE OVERALL TEMPORAL OVERLAP OF STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH
MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...PARTICULARLY FROM 03Z TO 09Z...WHEN
PERSISTENT CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. REGARDLESS...SUFFICIENT
LIVE-FUEL MOISTURE MAY EXIST TO TEMPER THE FIRE-WEATHER RISK IN SOME
AREAS...PRECLUDING CRITICAL DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS
SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER SOME AREAS OF DRY FUELS.

..COHEN.. 02/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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