Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS21 KWNS 300833
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING OVER SRN
ALBERTA...AND IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS E/SEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS LATER
TODAY AS IT CRESTS A STOUT MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS MT...WHILE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP
IN ITS WAKE AS A LEE SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME POTENTIALLY DRY OVER PARTS OF
NV.

...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN MT...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SWRN CANADA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS EARLY TUE MORNING...WITH ACCOMPANYING POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TSTMS PERSISTING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING ACROSS
CNTRL/ERN MT. WITH PW VALUES OBSERVED NEAR/ABOVE ONE INCH IN
REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS...THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY BE WET...BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SPOTTY. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING
IGNITIONS MAY EXIST OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION CORES.

BY EARLY AFTERNOON...NWLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-25
MPH AMIDST STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO THE W OF A LEE SFC LOW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH. DESPITE
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WITHIN THE BROAD
LOW-LEVEL NWLY REGIME...BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO PRECLUDE CRITICAL RH THRESHOLDS /15
PERCENT/ FROM BEING REACHED...WITH FORECAST MIN RH VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S GENERALLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED AMIDST LOWER RH VALUES.
REGARDLESS...AN ELEVATED WIND-DRIVEN FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL
EXIST...AND COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR ANY LIGHTNING
IGNITIONS THAT OCCUR EARLY TUE MORNING.

...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NV...
ISOLATED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER AREA RANGES DURING PEAK HEATING.
LATEST OBSERVATIONS/MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ON THE MARGINS FOR A FAVORABLE DRY
TSTM THREAT...WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75-1 INCH.
HOWEVER...15-20 KT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW...COMBINED WITH THE LIKELY
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP/WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER...SHOULD LEAD TO
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. A THREAT FOR LIGHTNING
IGNITIONS MAY ALSO EXIST AWAY FROM THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION CORES.
GIVEN THE ENHANCED EVAPORATIVE POTENTIAL WITHIN THE INVERTED-V
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

..ROGERS.. 06/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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