Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 061635
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

VALID 061700Z - 071200Z

...SOUTH TEXAS...
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY SWD INTO DEEP S TX
WHERE SUSTAINED NWLY AROUND 15-20 MPH WILL OCCUR AMIDST MIN RH
VALUES FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. PREVIOUS ELEVATED AREA WAS EXPANDED
SLIGHTLY EWD TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
MIN RH VALUES CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT OCCURRING IN AREAS WHERE SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS COULD TOP 20 MPH. MAIN FACTOR PRECLUDING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS IS THE MARGINAL STRENGTH AND GENERALLY SHORT DURATION OF
THE SUSTAINED WINDS.

...SRN CA...
16Z OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A LAX-TPH GRADIENT OF -13 MB AND A LAX-DAG
GRADIENT OF -6 MB. WIND SPEEDS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING WITH
HIGHER ELEVATION SITES REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH. OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX
THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE
OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE LACK OF OVERLAP
BETWEEN THE STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST RH VALUES AND THE ONLY
MARGINALLY RECEPTIVE FUELS. HOWEVER...PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS
OFFSHORE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO DRY FUELS...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
GRADUALLY INCREASING FIRE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

..MOSIER.. 02/06/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0237 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AT
THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WILL MOVE QUICKLY ALONG THE GULF
COAST STATES AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA.  FARTHER WEST...A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
WEST COAST.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...SETTING UP AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALONG
COASTAL RANGES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FOSTERING WARM/DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

...SOUTH TEXAS...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...ENHANCED
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY.  THE COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND A
REMAINING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FOSTER WIDESPREAD 15-20 MPH
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE
ELEVATED DELINEATION TODAY.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
60S AND DRY FUELS/FULL SUNSHINE IN THE REGION WILL FOSTER ELEVATED
TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
A CONTINUED OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
FUELS IN THE REGION REMAIN LARGELY UNSUPPORTIVE OF FIRE GROWTH
HOWEVER...RESULTING IN ONLY A LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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