Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 031555
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

VALID 031700Z - 041200Z

NO CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE A MIXTURE OF BOTH WET AND DRY
TYPES...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDER IN MONTANA
COINCIDENT WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.  FIRE STARTS
ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OUTSIDE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM CORES THAT DO NOT
RECEIVE WETTING RAINS...AND ANY GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY COMPLICATE FIRE SUPPRESSION EFFORTS.

OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

..COOK.. 08/03/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0359 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING NEWD
TODAY...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BEGIN TO DROP SLOWLY SEWD. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN REBUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST...WITH LOCALLY ELEVATED WIND/RH
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN.

...DRY TSTM THREAT: INTERIOR NORTHWEST/NRN ROCKIES...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST INTO THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NEWD. OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND GPS-BASED ANALYSES
INDICATE PW VALUES IN THE 0.6 - 1 INCH RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...WHICH ARE SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALLY WETTING RAINS UNDERNEATH
THE STRONGEST CORES. HOWEVER...WHERE STRONG HEATING AND DRYING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...EVAPORATION MAY LIMIT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND RESULT IN A THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED DRY
TSTMS. THE GREATEST CONCURRENCE OF TSTM COVERAGE AND HOT/WELL-MIXED
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER PARTS OF CNTRL ID INTO WRN
MT...BUT A FAIRLY BROAD REGION WILL SEE AN ISOLATED THREAT OF MIXED
WET/DRY TSTMS WHERE FUELS ARE RECEPTIVE. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC.

...WIND/RH THREAT: PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY...
LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
ERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES INTO PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER
VALLEY. WHILE TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS...RH VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 10-20 PERCENT
RANGE AT PEAK HEATING...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
15-20 MPH TO PRODUCE ELEVATED WIND/RH CONDITIONS IN AN AREA OF VERY
DRY FUELS.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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