Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 291613
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

VALID 291700Z - 301200Z


...SRN SIERRA NEVADA...
A SMALL ELEVATED RISK AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR
LOCALLY GUSTY NWLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST VERY HOT/DRY
CONDITIONS. THESE WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE TEHACHAPI AND
PIUTE MTN RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PASSES...WHERE LOCALLY
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH RH VALUES NEAR 10
PERCENT.

ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MARGINAL PW
VALUES OBSERVED IN RECENT SATELLITE-/PW-DERIVED OBSERVATIONS...AND A
VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER OBSERVED IN REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY TSTM ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE.

...PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THE RISK AREA FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF WRN NV AND SERN ID. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK MCV POSITIONED OVER CNTRL NV...AND THIS WILL
FOSTER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. PW
VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF NV/UT...TO
0.6-0.7 INCH INTO SRN ID...WHICH WILL FAVOR A MIX OF WET/DRY TSTMS
ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
HOWEVER...LIGHTNING STRIKES AWAY FROM THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION CORE
AMIDST GENERALLY RECEPTIVE FUELS MAY POSE A RISK FOR
LIGHTNING-CAUSED IGNITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS
ID/WRN WY MAY LIMIT COVERAGE SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER
S...BUT STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 MPH AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FAVOR ISOLATED DRY TSTMS.

..ROGERS.. 06/29/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0347 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL SLOWLY
DE-AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY ALONG
THE WEST COAST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ESTABLISHED FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE TN VALLEY.

...PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
ON THE FRINGE OF DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...DRY-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN
TODAY. ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN...PW VALUES AROUND 0.7-0.9
INCHES WILL FAVOR A MIX OF WET/DRY MODES. DESPITE SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES AND RECEPTIVE
FUELS WILL ENHANCE FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF ID/MT/WY...LOWER PW VALUES WILL RESULT
IN REDUCED STORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON...AND BRISK STORM MOTIONS WILL
COMBINE WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION CORES TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FIRE IGNITION/SPREAD.

...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE LATER TODAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF KERN...VENTURA...AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES. POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY...WITH RH VALUES REMAINING
IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WILL COMBINE WITH THESE WINDS TO RESULT IN AT
LEAST LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS. IF CONFIDENCE IN A
GREATER DURATION OF WINDY/DRY CONDITIONS INCREASES...AN ELEVATED
DESIGNATION MAY BE NEEDED.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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