Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FNUS76 KLOX 050258
FWSLOX

SPOT FORECAST FOR OZENA ADMIN PILE BURN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
758 PM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0830 PDT ON MAY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
AREA WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE OZENA PILE BURN AREA
ON THURSDAY. GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BRING MARINE LAYER
MOISTURE INLAND...WITH FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE GUSTS OVER THE RIDGES. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE BURN AREA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL DIMINISH
ON SUNDAY.


.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING
                    THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........52 AT IGNITION...MAX 62.
RH..................55 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
 RIDGETOP...........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 8 TO 15
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO 22 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 7000
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO
                    10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...SMITH
REQUESTED BY...RYAN EDMONSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160505.OZENA.01/LOX



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