Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 021719
1119 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

                    VALID MARCH 2 THROUGH MARCH 7


                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Light precipitation occurred across central Texas overnight and this
morning. Also, showers and thunderstorms again developed in
southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana but were less widespread
than yesterday morning. In Colorado and New Mexico, a break in
snowfall is occurring this morning. A well organized Pacific
storm is now located off the Southern California coast.  As a result,
the upper level flow over the WGRFC area of responsibility has become
southwest oriented, drawing in upper level Pacific moisture.
Widespread light rainfall is expected for most of central and eastern
Texas today. Also snow and rain is expected to redevelop in New
Mexico and Colorado by this evening.

A strong cold front is expected to approach the region from the north
Tuesday evening as a strong upper level trough moves over the
northern United States from Canada. Thunderstorms are possible
beginning in northern and northeastern Texas early Wednesday and into
southeastern Texas by early Thursday. Snowfall will end in Colorado
and New Mexico by midweek, and a final round of precipitation is
expected in South Texas on Thursday before dry weather sets in over
the weekend.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for southwestern Colorado and
for far northern New Mexico. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are
forecast for portions of South Texas, southeastern Texas, and south
central New Mexico. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for most of New
Mexico and the eastern half of Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch
are forecast for portions of far northern and northeastern Texas.
Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for most of the rest of Texas and for
portions of southern Colorado and far northern New Mexico.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
forecast for portions of northeastern Texas. MAP amounts of 0.5 to 1
inch are forecast for much of central and northern Texas. MAP amounts
of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for southern and southeastern Texas.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are
forecast for Deep South Texas and coastal Texas.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (43%), and about 14% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (68%), and 4% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions.  Lake levels in these exceptional
drought areas are at or near historical lows for this time of year.
Rainfall amounts of up to 2 inches are forecast for eastern Texas,
which could produce some runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Most rivers are generally near normal baseflow conditions across the
eastern WGRFC area and below normal across the western areas.

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:



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