Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 221610
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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1110 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017

                    VALID JULY 22 THROUGH JULY 27

...A TEMPORARY SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY BRING A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER TEXAS, WITH MONSOONAL ACTIVITY OUT
WEST...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
After several days with high pressure in control of the Texas
weather, a minor change has occurred in the pattern.  The ridge of
high pressure which was over north Texas and Oklahoma has temporarily
weakened and has shifted eastward into northern Arkansas this
weekend. While most of Texas will remain hot and dry, we may see an
increased chance for rainfall over east Texas and western Louisiana.
It also means there will be an increase in the areal coverage of
the rainfall over the western portions of the WGRFC area.

Monsoonal activity in our western and southwestern forecast areas
will dominate the weather through the current forecast period.
Moisture has been abundant from northern Mexico and far southwest
Texas into New Mexico and southern Colorado the past several days.
Central and western New Mexico and southern Colorado has been
observing afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, with even
heavier rainfall over portions of Mexico.  The thunderstorms should
again become more numerous and widespread this weekend since the
high pressure ridge has shifted east from Oklahoma.  The areas near
the mountains of New Mexico into southern Colorado will be most
favored.  Then as the ridge redevelops over the four corners region
early next week the pattern will remain favorable for continued
monsoonal, diurnal thunderstorm activity the next several days.
Flash flooding remains a concern over New Mexico and southern
Colorado through the weekend.

Further south, rain chances will continue over the Rio Grande valley
between El Paso and the Texas Big Bend area as diurnal thunderstorms
develop over northern Mexico and far southwest Texas.

Over southeast Texas, data indicates above normal amounts of moisture
in place, and already this morning widely scattered thunderstorms
have developed along and near the upper Texas Gulf coast.  This
moisture, along with the sea breeze front and daytime heating, will
enhance the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Some of the stronger storms could produce
locally heavy downpours. The rain may spread inland a ways before
daytime heating diminishes and the areal coverage of the showers and
storms decreases by late evening. This pattern will likely repeat
itself each one of the next five days, especially on Sunday.

By Monday and into the middle of next week, the ridge of high
pressure will redevelop near the four corners region and then broaden
out eastward into northwest Texas.  This will lead to a decreasing
chance for some rain in northern and western Texas by Tuesday and
Wednesday into Thursday.

Rainfall amounts the past 24 hours were heaviest over the west, with
the area south of Cloudcroft NM receiving slightly more than 2.75
inches and the region northeast of Terlingua TX got over 2.00 inches.
Over the Texas Gulf coast, Waller received 1.80 inches of rain.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for a good part of New
Mexico, southern Colorado and far western Texas.  MAP amounts of 0.25
to 0.50 inch are also forecast for southeast Texas and southern
Louisiana.  The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are
forecast over northern Mexico.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over the southeastern quarter of Texas into most
of Louisiana, as well as over west Texas and northern Mexico into
most of New Mexico and Colorado.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for the northwest two thirds of New Mexico and southern
Colorado.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are also forecast for east
Texas and western Louisiana.  The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of
1.00 inch, are forecast over extreme northeast New Mexico.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the eastern
third of Texas into Louisiana, as well as over west Texas and
northern Mexico into most of New Mexico and Colorado.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for much of the western half of New Mexico and
southwestern Colorado.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are
forecast over northeast Texas into northern Louisiana, as well as
over northern Mexico and far west Texas into most of New Mexico and
Colorado.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for the western half of New Mexico and southern
Colorado.  The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are
forecast over central Mexico.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over most of the remainder of the WGRFC area
except for northern and western Texas.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 26%, and roughly 8% of Texas is
experiencing moderate (or worse) drought conditions. In New Mexico,
27% of the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions, with
about 7% of the state in the moderate drought category.  Due to the
dry soil moisture conditions, the rainfall forecast will not produce
significant runoff the next five days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Another round of heavy rain in Mexico near Presidio has generated a
minor flood wave now moving through Presidio. This wave will spend the
next few days moving toward and into the Big Bend National Park where
no flooding is expected, but another round of much higher than normal
flows can be expected early next week.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
No widespread river flooding is expected over the WGRFC area during
the next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

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