Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 011553
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1052 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

                     VALID JULY 1 THROUGH JULY 6

...A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN IS RETURNING TO THE WGRFC AREA THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WITH NO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An area of showers and thunderstorms, associated with a weak low
pressure system located over northeastern Mexico, will continue
to impact portions of Deep South Texas and the coastal bend through
the early afternoon hours. Rainfall amounts of up to 2.00 inches
have been reported across Deep South Texas and northern Mexico
since 7 am. An additional 1.00 to 2.00 inches, is possible across
these areas through noon.

During the afternoon hours, this activity is expected to interact
with a sea breeze front along the southeast Texas coast. As a
result, additional heavy rainfall and flash flooding is possible
across the Houston area once again. Showers and thunderstorms may
also spread into portions of central and north Texas during the
late afternoon and evening hours. No significant river flooding is
expected with this activity.

After today, very little rainfall is expected over the WGRFC
area, as a ridge of high pressure continues to expand across the
region. By late Thursday/early Friday, showers and thunderstorms
are forecast to develop across the Red River and North Texas, as
a cold front moves into the area. The latest forecast models keep
the heaviest rainfall just north of the WGRFC area, therefore no
additional significant flooding is expected at this time. Elsewhere,
diurnal thunderstorms should persist each afternoon over parts of
New Mexico and Colorado, through the remainder of the forecast
period.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of Deep
South Texas, Colorado and New Mexico.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or
less are forecast for portions of New Mexico.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or
less are forecast for portions of New Mexico.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or
less are forecast for most of the WGRFC area.

Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full
and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules.
Soil moisture remains high across much of Texas from rainfall over
the past two months.  Rainfall over the next five days in primarily
southeastern Texas may be enough to cause some runoff locally, but
significant, widespread runoff is not expected. Rainfall intensities
and potential runoff will be monitored.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Widespread flooding continues along the Trinity River mainstem.
Flood stages will continue for some time as travel time from
Dallas to Lake Livingston averages about 2 weeks. Lake Livingston
continues to incrementally reduce releases as the lake returns
to its normal elevation. Therefore flows are falling
downstream, including Liberty (LBYT2) that is expected to fall
below moderate within a few days.  Another wave of moderate
flooding is working its way down the middle Trinity River.
Trinidad (TDDT2) has crested but will remain within moderate flood
for another day. Long Lake (LOLT2) has risen above moderate flood
stage and is nearing crest.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Canyon Lake has again reduced releases which will lower the
remaining forecasts as that reduced flow pushes downstream. Still
elevated flow expected at Victoria and Bloomington through
forecast period.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Higher than normal flows continue throughout the Neches River
basin, but minor flooding continues only on the Angelina River
near Lufkin (LUFT2) and on the Neches River near Town Bluff
(TBFT2). There is still significant flood water in Sam Rayburn
Reservoir which is above the flood pool; therefore releases will
continue for several weeks and will keep Town Bluff within minor
flood.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues at Mineola (MLAT2) and  Deweyville
(DWYT2). Toledo Bend Reservoir will be running 12 hours of power
generation each day. This will create fluctuations in stage
downstream at Burkeville and Bon Wier this week, and falling
stages at Deweyville by the weekend.

...San Jacinto Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Rainfall amounts yesterday of as much as 4 inches in the
Houston metropolitan area have caused some significant
rises. Forecast points have remained below flood stage.

...Nueces Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Coastal basins will see higher than normal flows due to locally
heavy rainfall.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
All locations along the river are now below minor flood levels.
However, flows along the river system will remain elevated above
normal because of the releases from the upstream lakes

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils remain wetter than  normal over much of the WGRFC area.
Higher than normal flows should be the norm throughout the area.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


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