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Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC
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AGUS74 KFWR 211307
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
807 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

                     VALID MAY 21 THROUGH MAY 26

...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE PICTURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue across eastern Oklahoma for
the remainder of the day.  A well advertised upper level storm over
the Central Plains will gradually slide east and weaken over the
next several days.  The broad upper level trough of low pressure
over the WGRFC area will also move east, and a weak upper level
ridge will build into the region by Wednesday.

Over the next few days, the upper level trough will weaken as it
slides further east.  Precipitation is expected to linger over East
Texas today through Wednesday.  Thunderstorm activity will
eventually shift back north and west from the Panhandle south to the
Big Bend Thursday as another strong storm system is expected to move
into the Pacific Coast Thursday.  Thunderstorm chances will remain
in place into the weekend.

We will continue to monitor and will update accordingly.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 1.0 inches are forecast across central and eastern
Texas with higher amounts extending northeastward.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are
forecast across western Texas and eastern New Mexico.

The ongoing drought remains entrenched across the entire WGRFC
area.  About 68 percent of Texas remains in severe drought, or
worse. In New Mexico, drought conditions are even more widespread,
with nearly 97 percent of the state in severe to exceptional
drought.   Localized runoff is possible in the stronger
thunderstorms.  Widespread significant runoff is possible late
Tuesday and Wednesday for parts of Central and East Texas.  Mainstem
river flooding is possible in the heavier rainfall.  Widespread
river flooding is not expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
While isolated showers continue to bring much needed moisture, all
WGRFC forecast points remain below criteria. No significant flooding
is expected over the next 5 days.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

MCKEE


$$
National Weather Service National Headquarters
