Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 221638
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1138 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

                 VALID OCTOBER 22 THROUGH OCTOBER 27

...A BRIEF SPELL OF WARM DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge in eastern New Mexico is moving slowly east
across the WGRFC forecast area. A few scattered showers and
thunderstorms have left light amounts of rain over the eastern two
thirds of the state.  This disturbance continues to move east leaving
some light rainfall amounts in far west Texas and the Panhandle. As
this system moves east, rain chances increase in north Texas through
Thursday morning.

As this system exits the area, a subtropical high nudges in from the
desert southwest.  This strong dome of high pressure will be centered
over central New Mexico by Friday afternoon. Thursday and Friday look
mostly dry for the WGRFC area of responsibility as this upper level
ridge builds from the west.  Expect a transition to cooler weather as
a dry cold front pushes through New Mexico on Sunday.

The upper level trough currently located off the Oregon coast will
begin to impact the WGRFC area as early as Monday.  This upper level
system will generate a weak cold front expected to pass through the
area starting Monday evening.  It is worth noting that this system
could result in some upslope snowfall for northern and central New
Mexico. The progress of the system will be monitored and updates
provided throughout the forecast period.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas.  In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (48%) and 11% has extreme to
exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme
to exceptional drought. No significant rainfall is expected for most
areas within the WGRFC forecast area through the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Rainfall over the past 2 days has pushed Candelaria (CDET2) above
action stage and is expected to fall over the next few hours.
Downstream the Rio Grande (PIOT2) is expected to rise above action
stage over the next few days. This additonal flow should not impact
points further downstream.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC river forecast points are at or below bankfull conditions.
Rainfall forecasted in the next five days will not cause
mainstem river flooding in the WGRFC area.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER


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