Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 191659
1059 AM CST THU JAN 19 2017

                 VALID JANUARY 19 THROUGH JANUARY 24


                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Additional rainfall is expected the next 12-18 hours over
portions of southeast Texas. This activity should not cause
any additional rises on any river systems. The heaviest
rainfall is situated offshore near the frontal boundary and
is continuing to move off towards the east. Rainfall amounts
of 1.00 to 1.50 inch are forecast for the next several hours,
primarily over the lower Sabine and Neches.

By tomorrow, a temporary drying trend will begin across the
region going into the weekend, however the overall weather
pattern will remain active for the next several days.

Additional rainfall is forecast over the weekend as an upper
low moves across the Central Plains. However no significant
flooding is expected.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast for the southeast Texas
coast, Colorado and New Mexico.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch
are forecast for portions of the southeast Texas coast, Colorado
and New Mexico.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of up to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch
are forecast for portions of southern Colorado and New Mexico.

There was a slight increase in the abnormally dry category in the
drought conditions noted in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for
Texas through January 10, 2017. While there was little change for
New Mexico. In Texas, the area considered to be abnormally dry is
now at 25%. Also, 6% of Texas is experiencing moderate drought
conditions and less than 1% remains in severe drought, particularly
over northeast Texas near the Red River. In New Mexico the drought
monitor shows around 34% of the state experiencing abnormally dry
conditions, with 4% remaining in moderate drought.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Over the last 24 hours, a stalled boundary has produced significant
rainfall over an area north and east of the Houston metro. This
boundary has produced a band of rainfall with a 24 hour maximum
total in the 2.5-3 inch range. A surrounding region of widespread
1-plus inches has produced numerous action stage and minor level
flooding which has affected the coastal basins and areas north of
the Houston metro.

In the Houston metro, all forecasts were issued at either action or
minor flood criteria.  Surrounding river basins that met minor flood
level criteria include the Brazos, Guadalupe, Neches, San Bernard,
Neches and Sabine. Forecasts above action stage were issued on the
Colorado, Lavaca, San Jacento, San Antonio and Trinity basins.

River forecasts have also been issued for the Rio Grande River
between Lake Amistad and  Laredo, Texas. For  the river reach
between Lake Amistad and Laredo, minor flooding is occurring at
various locations because of releases from Lake Amistad.

Over the next 24 hours the QPF forecast for Texas poses
no additional flood risk. Rivers affected by the mid-week
precipitation will continue to crest and fall as forecast.

Seasonal to low flow conditions are generally occuring for the
region of the WGRFC forecast area north and west of the Dallas Fort
Worth Metro.

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:



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