Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 301623
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1123 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

                     VALID MAY 30 THROUGH JUNE 4

...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED AGAIN THROUGH SATURDAY...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
The next storm system  which is affecting the WGRFC area is located
along the California/Arizona border region this morning.  Moisture
well out ahead of this low exists over Texas and eastern New Mexico.
This moisture combined with an upper air disturbance the past 24
hours to produce a large complex of thunderstorms.  This complex
moved from the Texas panhandle southeastward across western and
northern Texas and also the Texas Hill Country.  And ahead of this
complex, scattered thunderstorms occurred across central and
northeast Texas. Localized flooding rainfall occurred over west
central Texas.  These areas received in excess of 3.00 inches of rain
the past 24 hours, with amounts of 4 to 5 inches from Baird to Cross
Plains TX. This disturbance is spreading over south central Texas
now, and the precipitation is decreasing for now over the middle
Texas Gulf coast.

A second upper level disturbance is forecast to move into southwest
Texas this evening, thus the dryline is forecast to be active this
afternoon and evening.  Showers and thunderstorms will produce rain
over primarily the western third of Texas.  This rain will move over
central and south central Texas overnight.  Locally heavy rain is
again possible over southwest Texas north and east of Del Rio.

By Tuesday morning the upper low will move over southern Arizona.
This will result in the dryline becoming active once again across
western Texas during the day Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop which will move east into northern and central Texas Tuesday
night. This low is forecast to remain nearly stationary Tuesday so
portions of northern and central Texas will continue to see areas of
locally heavy rainfall where the strongest thunderstorms occur.  This
rain will likely spread across the remainder of Texas on Wednesday.

The upper air low pressure system is forecast to move over west Texas
by Thursday morning.  In addition, a cold front is forecast to move
into the state from the northwest.  These systems are forecast to
move slowly across Texas Thursday and Friday. As a result of these
systems, more showers and thunderstorms are expected over Texas
Wednesday night into Thursday and Friday, with locally heavy rainfall
possible.

On Saturday morning the upper level low pressure system is forecast
to be over south central Texas.  This may focus the heavier rainfall
over and near the middle Texas Gulf coast by Saturday.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for much of the western
half of Texas.  The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.50 inches,
are forecast between Del Rio and San Antonio.  MAP amounts of less
than 0.25 inch are forecast for eastern New Mexico, a good part of
Texas, and most of Louisiana.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more
are forecast for the central third of Texas, northeast New Mexico and
southeast Colorado. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 2.00
inches, are forecast between Gainesville and Wichita Falls TX.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for a good part of
Colorado, northern and eastern New Mexico, and most of Texas.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more
are forecast for most of Texas, eastern New Mexico, a small part of
southern Colorado, and northwest Louisiana.  The heaviest rain, with
MAP amounts of 1.50 inches, are forecast near San Antonio TX.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of the WGRFC
area of responsibility.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more
are forecast for most of Texas, a small part of northeastern and
southwestern New Mexico, southeast Colorado, and western Louisiana.
The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 3.00 inches, are forecast
near and north of Corpus Christi TX.  Widespread 2.00 inch amounts
are forecast from Austin to south of Corpus Christi TX.  MAP amounts
of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of the WGRFC area of
responsibility.

Soils continue to be  moist across the majority of Texas. Only 3% of
Texas is categorized as abnormally dry, with no moderate or greater
drought noted.  Over New Mexico, 83% of the state is abnormally dry,
and 37% remains in the moderate drought category.  With soils being
so wet in Texas, significant runoff is expected from the forecast
rainfall this week over northern, central and south central Texas.
Minor runoff may occur over east Texas as well. Over the remainder of
the WGRFC area little runoff will occur.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...San Jacinto Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Widespread flooding continues across the San Jacinto river basin.  Most
locations are near or have crested.

...Colorado Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Pockets of heavy rainfall produced rises and river flooding
downstream of the Austin area.  Moderate flooding is occurring at La
Grange and Columbus.  Major flooding is forecast at Wharton.

...Trinity Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Widespread moderate to major flooding continues in the lower Trinity
river basin with many locations continuing to rise as water moves
downstream.

...Brazos Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Moderate to major flood conditions are occurring in the Brazos River
basin.  The Brazos mainstem from Washington through Hempstead (HPDT2)
and Richmond (RMOT2) to Rosharon (ROST2) is or will experience moderate
and major flood levels through the weekend into early next week.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Rains occurring this morning will generate moderate flooding in the
headwaters.  Hunt (HNTT2) is forecast to crest into moderate flood
levels with flooding renewed along the reach down to Comfort (COMT2).
Flooding at Bloomington (DUPT2) will fluctuate around moderate flood
levels.

...Neches Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Widespread minor to moderate flooding continues in the Neches river
basin.

...Nueces Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Out of bank flows are forecast at Uvalde (UVET2) and Cotulla (COTT2).
The Nueces River at Derby (DBYT2) is forecast to reach moderate
flooding.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding is forecast at Bandera (BDAT2) and San Antonio US 281
from overnight rainfall.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remaining river systems across the WGRFC area remain relatively
wet, especially the eastern half of Texas, and additional rainfall
expected within the next 5 days will likely generate river responses
which could lead to more river action level and flood level flows.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




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