Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 031555
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1055 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

                      VALID MAY 3 THROUGH MAY 8

...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO BEFORE
A DRYING TREND BEGINS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Scattered storms over East Texas yesterday left an area of around 2
inches near Toledo Bend Reservoir.  Otherwise, a mostly sunny day
for the rest of the West Gulf River Forecast Center area.  There is
another chance for a weak shortwave to generate some scattered
showers over North and Central Texas.  This is the only real chance
for precipitation besides a scattered coastal shower or a brief
precipitation in Southern Colorado.

These dry conditions will dominate region Wednesday through
early Saturday morning as a ridge of high pressure develops over the
Rocky Mountains and moves eastward over Texas during the time period.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Soils are now very moist across a good part of the state, especially
the eastern portions. Texas is now categorized as being 13%
abnormally dry, with 2% in the moderate drought category. Over New
Mexico, almost the entire state remains in the abnormally dry
category, and 44% is in moderate drought.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Both Cedar Creek Reservoir and Lake Livingston are currently passing
inflow from upstream runoff.  These releases are generating moderate
flood levels on the mainstem Trinity River at Trinidad (TDDT2) and
Long Lake (LOLT2).  Downstream, the Trinity River at Liberty (LBYT2)
is forecast to rise into major flood levels by the middle of the
week.

For the upper Trinity, water supply reservoirs are passing inflows to
maintain their conservation pools.  Flood control reservoirs are also
slowly evacuating their flood pools.  This is keeping the mainstem of
the Trinity and its tributaries well above normal.

...Sabine Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Water continues to translate downstream on the Sabine River from
upstream areas.  This routed water is forecast to cause the Sabine
River at Gladewater (GDWT2) to rise to major flood levels.  Multiple
other sites will remain elevated, continuing to rise into minor and
moderate flood levels impacting local roadways and agriculture.  Toledo
Bend has recently increased their releases.  This will also cause minor
and moderate flooding downstream at various locations.

...San Jacinto Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Additional rains have caused the East Fork San Jacinto to experience a
sharp rise near New Caney (NCET2), The site crested slightly above
major flood levels for a brief period and has now receded to moderate
flood levels and still falling.  Other sites are in slow recession at
this time.

...Neches Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Recent rainfall in the upper half of the Neches River Basin has  pushed
numerous forecast points into minor and moderate flood levels.  Lakes
remain full with flood storage being released from Sam Rayburn
Reservoir.

...San Bernard Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Heavy rain has slowed the recession within action stage for Sweeny
(SWYT2) but should be below action stage over the next couple of days.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher than normal flows continue on the lower Brazos River
due to recent heavy rainfall, but all locations are currently and
forecast to stay below flood stage. Flood control reservoirs are slowly
releasing their flood waters keeping the mainstem of the Brazos below
Lake Whitney well above base flow.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils remain wet over most of the WGRFC area, but a little break
from rainfall is expected after the last of this rain event leaves
the region. Next shot at significant rain will be this weekend.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

GIARDINO


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