National Weather Service Text Product Display

Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
000
AGUS73 KMSR 211808
HMDMSR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
0100 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...PRECIPITATION...

IN THE PAST 24 HOURS... MORE HEAVY RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE NCRFC REGION. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL IN THE AREA OF ST. LOUIS
MISSOURI... WITH REPORTS OVER FOUR INCHES. ONE INCH OR HIGHER
BANDS OF RAIN FELL IN EVERY STATE IN THE NCRFC REGION. THE LARGEST
BAND EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
CHICAGO AND GRAND RAPIDS... INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF AN INCH AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES WERE
OBSERVED ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS WELL FROM
STEADY... SOAKING RAINS IN THE WRAP AROUND OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. CENTRAL IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN ALSO RECEIVED AN INCH
OR MORE FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT DAY... AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN HAD THREE QUARTERS TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER.

IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS... THE CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
IOWA TODAY. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF CONVECTION WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AS
WELL... MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTH AND EAST
ILLINOIS. THE WRAP-AROUND RAINS WILL CONTINUE BUT WILL SLIDE SOUTH
INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA... EXTENDING
INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA AND EASTERN MICHIGAN. GENERALLY... THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL ADD UP TO A HALF INCH OR MORE... WITH
ISOLATED LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE OVER AN INCH IN THE WRAP-AROUND
AND TWO INCHES IN THE DEEP CONVECTION.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK... THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL FINALLY START
MAKING PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST... DRAGGING THE MOISTURE
WITH IT THROUGH WISCONSIN... ILLINOIS AND MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. INTO THE WEEKEND... A FASTER MOVING SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH IOWA.

...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...


HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVER THE NCRFC AREA IN THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS HAS CAUSE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO EXPERIENCE
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING. THE PEMBINA, TONGUE, AND PARK RIVERS
IN THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH WATERSHED ARE EXPERIENCING MAJOR
FLOODING.  OTHER SMALLER CREEKS/STREAMS/RIVERS IN THE AREA ARE
LIKELY DANGEROUSLY HIGH.

THE SOURIS RIVER AT WEST HOPE REMAINS ABOVE MODERATE AND IS
CURRENTLY CRESTING.  IN ADDITION TO WEST HOPE... THE SOURIS RIVER
AT TOWNER AND DOWNSTREAM IS FORECAST TO REBOUND BACK ABOVE
MODERATE DUE TO THE OBSERVED/FORECAST RAINFALL DISCUSSED IN THE
"PRECIPITATION" DISCUSSION.

MODERATE FLOODING IS ALSO OCCURRING FROM CHARLES CITY TO JANESVILLE
ON THE CEDAR RIVER IN IOWA. THIS WATER WILL ROUTE DOWNSTREAM AND
IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE MODERATE FLOODING AT MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE
CEDAR.

PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER (LOCK AND DAM 18 TO 21) AND THE
ILLINOIS RIVER (HAVANNA TO BEARDSTOWN) ARE STILL ABOVE THE
MODERATE FLOOD CATEGORY... BUT THOSE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE RECESSION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT BUMP FROM THE
RECENT RAINFALL.

FOR ADDITIONAL AND MORE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER
FORECASTS...PRECIPITATION AND ALL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION
IN THE NCRFC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...PLEASE REFER TO THE NCRFC
WEB PAGE AT:     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NCRFC

EMERGENCY CALL BACK LIST:  BAC... DAM... JDT... JMP

IF NO RESPONSE FROM THIS LIST... CALL THE DOH...SCH OR HIC.


$$

...JPALMER/JDT...
National Weather Service National Headquarters
