Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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AGUS73 KMSR 271727
HMDMSR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1226 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...PRECIPITATION...
IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...MUCH OF THE NCRFC AREA SAW
PRECIPITATION...AS THE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE REGION
OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS MOVES SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST. THE FOCUS
OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WAS FROM NORTHEASTERN IOWA...
THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN... AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF
AN INCH TO 2.5 INCHES WERE OBSERVED...WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH REPORTS
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION...MOST OF
THE AREA WILL SEE A REPRIEVE FROM MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAINFALL.
TOTALS GENERALLY LESS THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED IN
MICHIGAN. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE DAKOTAS AS
THE NEXT FEATURES SET UP TO IMPACT THE REGION AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A
FEW TENTHS...THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER CONVECTIVE AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY.

...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...
WITH THE RECENT PERSISTENT RAIN... THE MISSISSIPPI AT FORT RIPLEY
AND AITKIN MINNESOTA HAS RETURNED TO FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. BANKFULL RISES ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS IOWA... MINNESOTA... WISCONSIN AND UPPER
MICHIGAN. THE SOURIS RIVER IN NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES ITS SLOW
RECESSION AT BANKFULL STAGES.

WITH THE QPF FOR THE NEXT THREE TO FIVE DAYS... THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE OF MORE LOCATIONS RISING TO BANKFULL AND FLOOD STAGES.
THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF SOME IOWA AND WISCONSIN TRIBUTARIES
REACHING MODERATE FLOOD STAGES... DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION AND
INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE STORMS.  THE NCRFC REGION HAS COME OUT OF
DROUGHT MODE FOR THE MOST PART... WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING
RECENT RAIN... MAKING MANY LOCATIONS VULNERABLE TO FLOOD GIVEN THE
ACTIVE STORM SYSTEM PATTERN.

FOR ADDITIONAL AND MORE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER
FORECASTS...PRECIPITATION AND ALL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION
IN THE NCRFC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...PLEASE REFER TO THE NCRFC
WEB PAGE AT:     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NCRFC

EMERGENCY CALL BACK LIST: JDT...BAC...JMP...LLD

IF NO RESPONSE FROM THIS LIST... CALL THE DOH...SCH OR HIC.


$$

...LLD/JMP...





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