Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center
AGUS73 KMSR 021758
Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1158 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016
In the past 24 hours, lake affected rain and snow fell over
portions of Michigan, dropping totals up to sixth tenths, with
common accumulations of one tenth to one quarter inch. The
higher totals were in concentrated pockets around Allegan and
Kalamazoo counties in southwest lower Michigan, and in Otsego and
Antrim counties in northern lower Michigan, and in the eastern
half of the Upper Peninsula.
Today and tomorrow, the lake affected precip will continue in
Michigan with similar totals expected. Saturday night, a weak
upper level trough will move in causing light precip across much
of the region with total water equivalents less than a quarter
inch by Monday morning. The snow line will generally lie near
the Missouri-Iowa border to Chicago and southern Michigan. Early
next week, a more organized system is expected to develop. There
still isn`t high confidence in location and intensity of heaviest
precip, but at this time the major impacts are expected to stay
south in the Ohio Valley.
The lower soil profile in much of the region is still wet from
the wet summer. Although the upper portions of the soil had
dried out from multiple weeks of dry weather in November, much of
the region is wet again in the upper profile from recent snow,
melt and rain.
Many rivers across the region had small rises in the past week.
The Wisconsin and Baraboo Rivers are cresting above bankfull
stages currently. Slow responding rivers in Minnesota continue to
climb toward bankfull stages including the Crow River and the
Mississippi mainstem, which will cause bankfull conditions on the
St. Croix at Stillwater.
The upper Mississippi will see rises over the next week or more
along its entire length to St. Louis. While no flooding is
expected on the major rivers, the flows are well above normal for
this time of year, leaving the system vulnerable to future runoff.
For additional and more in-depth information concerning river
forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information
in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC
web page at: http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc
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