Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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AGUS73 KMSR 271814

Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
114 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017


Overnight the frontal system dominating the Central U.S. continued
to push through towards the East Coast bringing a large swath of
precip affecting all states in the NCRFC region.  The heaviest
band stretched from the Upper Peninsula south into Wisconsin,
Illinois, and Missouri with amounts between one half and 1.5
inches common.  Southern Missouri and Illinois recorded the
highest amounts with widespread 1.5 to 3 inches of rain.

The rains over the last couple days have boosted soil moisture
across the Mississippi River Valley ahead of the next system that
will be moving into Missouri this weekend.  This system is
expected to be a major rain producer and could bring wide spread
5 to 7 inches of rain across southern Missouri and Illinois over
the next week.

...Hydrologic Conditions...

In the Hudson Bay Drainage, moderate flooding continues along the
Souris River at Westhope due to snowmelt in late March and early
April. Minor flooding continues from Towner and Bantry downstream
to near the Westhope area.

Minor flooding is occurring along the Illinois River from Havana
downstream through the confluence with the Mississippi River.
Minor flooding is occurring or forecast along portions of the
Mississippi mainstem.

A significant rainfall event will transpire over the next 48-72
hours, and this will likely result in widespread flooding. We are
anticipating flooding to become a concern across parts of Missouri,
Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Michigan. Today`s forecasts
utilized the typical 24-hours of QPF, but we also sent out
contingency forecasts for some basins which included 120 hours of
forecast rainfall. This was indicating the potential for minor to
moderate flooding at quite a number of locations, and a few spots
may also reach the major category. After coordination with
surrounding River Forecast Centers, NCRFC will be utilizing 72
hours of QPF for Friday morning`s forecasts, and we will use 48
hours of QPF for Saturday morning`s forecasts. Beyond that we will
plan to return to the normal 24 hour input.

As always, we will continue to monitor the forecast rainfall and
the potential for any forecasts or forecast updates as necessary.

For additional and more in-depth information concerning river
forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information
in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC
web page at:     http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc

Emergency Call Back List: LLD...WES...MAW...JMP

If no response from this list, call the DOH, SCH or HIC.



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