Marine Interpretation Message
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AGNT40 KWNM 161852
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW SCOOTNIG E ALONG THE FRONT OVR
THE SRN WATERS TUE NGT INTO WED NGT. EACH RUN AND EACH GLOBAL MODEL
HAS ITS MINOR DFFRNCS. TREND OVER THE PAST SVLR MODELS RUNS IS FOR
FLATTER/WEAKER LOWS.

MODELS IN VRY GOOD AGRMNT ON STRNG HIGH TO BARREL SE THU NGT AND
FRI...PASSING ACROSS THE NRN WATERS FRI NGT AND SAT. BY 12Z
FRI...XPCT N TO NE WINDS INCRSNG TO 20 TO 30 KT N OF BALT CANYON...WITH
THE E TO NE SURGE MIGRATING INTO THE WATERS DOWN TO 31N BY 00Z
SAT....BEFORE GRADU DMNSHNG THRU SAT. WILL USE THE HIGHER GFS 30M
WINDS HERE WITH THE NERLY FLOW. MODELS STILL HAVING DFFCLTY WITH
INVERTED TROF SETTING UP BTWN THE SE COAST AND BERMUDA FRI NGT AND SAT.
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ARE SMLR...JUST A DFFRNT ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE TROF. THE TREND OVR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BN FOR A LESS
PRONOUNCED TROF. THE EXCEPTION IS THE GEM...WHICH DVLPS A LOW
ALONG THE SE COAST SUN AND WL BE DISREGARDED. FOR SUN...TROF OFF
THE SE COAST WIL SLIDE W WHILE WKNG AND GFS/UKMET/ECMWF AGREE ON
FRONT APPCHNG THE NRN COAST WHILE LOW PRES MVS NE ACORSS QUEBEC.
THE GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG WITH A RETURN FLOW OF 25 KT AND WILL CAP
WNIDS AT 20 KT FOR NOW.

.SEAS...THE MULTIGRID WAVEWATCH III MODEL STILL ATTRIBUTES TOO
MUCH ENERGY TO THE E TO SE SWELLS FROM EDOUARD. AS AS BEFORE...
ITS COMBINED SEAS TNGT THRU WED AND INTO WED NIGHT ARE TOO HIGH.
BASED ON A FEW BUOYS W AND SW OF EDOUARD...AND FRMO A JASON
ALTIMITER PASS AT 14Z ALONG 66W....THE SEAS ARE 2 TO 3 FT LOWER
THAN WAVEWATCH GUESS...OR ABOUR 20 TO 30 PCT LOWER. THE HURRICANE
VERSION OF MULTIGRID HAS BETTER HANDLE...AS INDCTD BY OTHE WAVE
OBS. BY 12Z WED...THE WW HAS 6 FT SEAS WITHIN 100 MM OF THE COAST
WHILE THE HRCN VRSN HAS 6 FT SEAS ABOUT 250 NM OUT. THE 00Z ECMWF
WAM WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE HRCN WV WTCH MDL AND WL POPULATE USING
THESE SEAS...WHICH STIL MADE BE A TAD HIGH...SO LW BE ADJSTD DOWN
SLGHTLY. THE WAVE PERIOD WITH THE ASSD SWELLS ARE ALSO HANDLED
BTTR BY THE HRCN VRSN...AND ON AVG ARE ABOUT 2 SEC SHORTER WITH
THE WAVE PERIODS. THESE E TO SE SWELL WL BE DMNSHNG WED NGT AND
THU.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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