Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGNT40 KWNM 210721
MIMATN

Marine Weather Discussion for N Atlantic Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
321 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Atlantic Ocean W of 50W from 30N to 50N.

Summary...The 00z ncep surface analysis shows a low pres trough
passing just E of the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank, with a
stationary front extending NE to SW over the central and
southern nt2 wtrs. The analysis also shows a high pres ridge
over the southern nt2 waters S of the front. Latest available
ascat hi-res and ascat passes from a few hours ago show 5 to 15
kt winds over the offshore waters, except for 15 to 20 kt winds
across the NE part of the nt2 area. Lightning density product
data at 0650z shows a few isolated showers and tstms over the
southern nt2 waters.

Models...The 00z medium range models are in good overall
agreement across the offshore waters during the forecast period,
except the 00z ukmet brings a fairly strong tropical low N and
NE over the nt2 waters on Fri and Fri night. 00z ecmwf/gfs/gem
have a frontal boundary oriented NE to SW across the nt2 area
from Thu night through Fri night with some weak lows moving NE
along the front. Also, the latest WPC medium range forecaster
guidance supports the 00z ecmwf/gfs/gem prognosis. Overall it
looks like the 00z ecmwf and 00z gfs 10m solutions are in the
best agreement, so for now a representative 50/50 blend of the
00z ecmwf/gfs will be used for the wind grids through the
forecast period.

Seas...The 00z wna wavewatch and 00z ecmwf wam both initialized
well over the offshore waters, and are in good overall agreement
through the forecast period with only minor differences noted. A
50/50 blend of the 00z wna wavewatch/ecmwf wam will be used for
the sea height grids over the entire forecast period in order to
smooth out the model differences.

.Extratropical Storm Surge Guidance...N/A.

.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.NT1 New England Waters...
     None.

.NT2 Mid-Atlantic Waters...
     None.

$$

.Forecaster Scovil. Ocean Prediction Center.



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