Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 231922
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
322 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

COLD FRONT MVG THRU THE ERN GRT LKS RGN TDY STILL ON TRACK TO MOV
OFFSHR N OF CAPE HTTRS JUST PRIOR TO 12Z TMW. GFS STILL SW WNIDS
INCRSNG TO 25 KT EARLY TNGT OVR THE GULF OF MAINE. N OF 39/40N...
THE PREFRNT SW FLOW IN THE GFS 10M WINDS LOOK OVER DONE BY ABOUT 5
KT COMPARED WITH LATST ONS AND SCATTEROMETER PASS FM 15Z TDY. WILL
CAP WINDS AT 22 KT IN THE GRIDS...EXCEPT E OF HTRS CNYN WHERE
THESE SLGTLY HGR WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY OVR THE WARMED WATRS.
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND LOC OF THE FRONT
AS IT SLIWLY MVS SE THE NRN AND CNTRL WATESR THU THRU FRI NGT.
MODELS AGREE ON WK FRONT TO HANG UP NR CAPE HTTRS FRI NGT... THEN
DRIFT N TO NE INTO SAT NGT WHILE DSPTNG.

MODEL DIAGREEMENT BGN TO APPEAR OVR THE WEEKEND WITH SFC LOW...
OR LOWS FCST TO MOV THRU THE GRT LKS SUN AND PASS NR THE NR
WATERS MON...THROUGH LESS SO WITH THE ASSD COLD FRONT. UPR LOW NOW
OFF THE PAC COAST WL MOV OVR WRN CONUS RDG THEN SE ACRS THE GRT
LKS RGN SUN...WHERE THE MODESL BGN TO WKN AND LOW AND DISAGREE N
TIMING. THE UKMET S THE FASTEST...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF HOLD MORE OF
THE ENERGY BACK. BY 12Z MON...GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A SLOWER MVMNT OF
THE SFC LOW..BUT THEN THE GFS TAKES THE LOW NE ABOUT 200-300 NM E
OF THE SLOWER ECMWF.

QUITE REMARKABLY...THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMNET ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT TIMING OF THE ASSD COLD FRONT. BY 12Z
TUE...GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ONLY ABOUT 60 NM OR LESS APART ON FRONT
XTNDG FM ERN LONG ISLAND SW TO THE VA CAPES. SW WINDS WL BGN
INCRSNG SUN AHD OF THE FRONT. BY 12Z...THE GFS BL WINDS NICRS TO
20 TO 30 KT OVR A GOOD PART OF THE OFFSHR WATERS. THE ECMWF IS
ABOUT 5 TO OCCNLY 10 KT LESS. SO WL BLEND TO TWO MODELS FOR NOW.


.SEAS...THE 12Z MULTIGRID WAVEWATCH INITLD SEAS AT OR ABOUT A FT
TOO HIGH N OF THE GULF STREAM...AS HAS BN THE CASE. WL SHAVE 10 TO
15 PCT OFF THE WAVEWATCH FCST OVR THE COLDER WATERS FOR TNGT INTO
THU NGT...THEN 10 TO 20 PCT LWR FOR SUN AND MON.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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