Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 261203
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
803 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

NO SIG CHANGES THE THE FCST OR HEADLINES EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
PACKAGE.

SFC OBS SHOWING INCR SLY FLOW OVER THE OFFSHR WATERS...WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KT INDICATED BY SOME OF THE SRN BUOYS. LATEST GLOBAL MODELS
STILL IN AGRMT WITH SLY GALES DVLPG OVER MOST OF THE OFFSHR WATERS
LATER TODAY...WITH HIGHEST WINDS STILL EXPECTED NEAR THE GLF STRM
WHERE THE GREATEST CHANCES OF MIXING EXIST. CURNT HEADLINES LOOK
GOOD AND DO NOT PLAN MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THEM ATTM.

SEAS...LATEST WNA WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF CURRENT OBS...AND ARE IN
LINE WITH CURNT FCST. DO NOT PLAN ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE
SEAS ATTM...WITH TRENDS FROM PREV FCST STILL ON TARGET.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...


ACTIVE AND ENERGETIC PATTERN...WITH GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS HARD
TO FIND AFTER A FEW DAYS. THE MODELS DO START OUT IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THRU FRI NIGHT. GFS STILL FCST S TO SW WINDS TO INCRS
TO 20 TO 30 KT BY MRNG OVR MOST WATERS...WITH GALE FRC CONDS
EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTN N OF CAPE FEAR. IN THE STABLE SRLY
FLOW...WL FAVOR THE GFS 10M WINDS...WHICH ARE STILL XPCTD TO
INCRS UP TO 45 KT FM THE GULF STREAM S AND TO 40 KT N OF THE GULF
STREAM AS STRONG...WELL ORGNZD 925 MB LL JET INCRS TO OVR 80 KT.
MODELS IN GD AGRMNT IN TIMING OF COLD FRONT FCST TO SLOWLY FIGHT
ITS WAY SE AGNST STRNG SFC HIGH OVR THE SW CNTRL ATLC. MODELS
AGREE ON THE FRNT CLEARING THE WATERS N OF BALT CNYN ARND 00Z
SAT...WITH THE SCND LOW MVNG QUICKLY OFF TO THE NE. THE SRN PRTN
OF FRONT WILL HANG BACK...SWWRD ACRS THE SRTHN WATERS FRI...THEN
CLEAR THE SRN WATERS FRI NGT AND S TO SW GALES CONTG AHD OF FRONT
FRI AND FRI NGT.

MODELS BGN TO DVRG SAT AS GFS MVS THRD LOW QUIKLY OFF TO THE NE
WHILE THE UKMET/GEM/NAM MAINTAIN STRNG LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE
GEM AND UKMET ARE TRENDING WKR WITH THIS LOW. THE GFS OPRNL RUN
FITS FAIRLY WELL ADMIDST THE CLUSTER OF THE ENSMBL MEMBERS...SO
WILL STAY WITH GFS...AT LEAST THROUGH SAT.

SUN...THE MODELS BGN TO DFFR SGNFTLY. ALOFT...THE GEM AND UKMET
ARE SLOWLER AND STRNGR IN DIGGNG S/W ENERGY OFF THE SE COAST...
AND THEN RMN DFFRN THRU TUE IN TKNG THE UPR LOW OFF TO THE E. THE
ECMWF IS INBTWN...BUT MORE SMLR TO THE UKMET/GEM. THE GFS IS THE
MOST PRGRSV WITH THIS FTR ON THE SFC...THE GFS TAKES A GALE CNTR
E ALONG 38N...WHILE THE UKMET/GEM/ECMWF TAKE A WKR FTR FTHR S. BY
LATE MON...THE UKMET TRENDS TWDS THE GFS E OF THE OFFSHR WATERS
AND MAKES A FAIR COMPROMISE. FM 00Z SUN ON...WILL TEMPER THE GFS
SLGTLY WITH A 4:1 GFS/UKMET BLEND.

NEXT FTR TO AFFECT THE WATERS IS STRNG NRTHRN STREAM S/W SLIDING
SE OFF THE NE COAST LATE MON. THE GFS STANDS OUT AMONG THE MODELS
BY BEING VRY PROGRESSIVE...AND BRINGS A 994 MB GALE CNTR OFF THE
NRN MAINE COAST MON NGT. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BN CONSISTENT AND
DOES HV TEPID SUPPORT FM ITS ENSMBL MEMBERS AND THE NAEFS. THE
UKMET/GEM/ECMWF BRINGS A SWEEPING COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST MON
NGT MINUS THE GALE FRC LOW AND GRADIENT WINDS. ONCE AGAIN...WILL
TEMPER THE GFS JUST A BIT WITH BY STAYING WITH A 4:1 BLEND MIXING
IN THE UKMET. THIS SEEMS TO BE A DECENT COMPROMISE. THERE HV BN
TIMES RECENTLY WHERE THE GFS HAS BN AN OUTLIER AND THE GLOABAL
MODELS END UP TRENDING TWDS THE GFS AND UNSURE OF HOW THE FCST
WILL PAN OUT...SO CONFIDENCE RMNS LOW.


.SEAS...THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III MODELS IS WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF
CURRENT OBS. WILL POPULATE WAVE GRIDS WITH 00Z WNA THRU EARLY
MON...AS IT GFNC LKS ACCPTBL...AND THE ECMWF WAM APPEARS TO
OVERFCST THE SEAS IN THE SRLY FLOW. BGGNG MON...WL USE A 2:1
WNA/WAM BLEND AS THE GFS WINDS ARE TOO STRONG EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
WITH PRVS FCST...WILL INCR SEAS BY 10 PERCENT IN THE HIGHER WINDS
ALONG THE GLF STRM AND OFF THE SE COAST TONIGHT INTO SAT.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...THE ESTOFS FCST A NEG SURGE
OF 1 TO 1.5 FT OFF THE SE COAST BROEFLY SAT. THE ETSS VALUES ARE
WITHIN A FT.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE TONIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY INTO FRI NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE TODAY INTO FRI NIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE TODAY.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE TODAY INTO FRI NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE TODAY INTO FRI.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TODAY INTO FRI.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TODAY INTO FRI NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     GALE FRI NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER ACHORN/PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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