Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 281404
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1005 AM EDT THU 28 JUL 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

THE OVERNIGHT MODELS CAME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
MORE NRN SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE NT1 WATERS LATE FRI INTO
SAT. THE 06Z GFS IS NOW EVEN SLIGHTLY N OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET
AND A FEW MB DEEPER. BY LATE SUN AND MON MODELS DIVERGE WITH
ANOTHER DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE
MUCH LESS THAN WAS THE CASE WITH THE FRI/SAT SYSTEM...WHEN
COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET THE GFS IS FURTHER S WITH LOW
TRACK. WILL NOT BE MAKING SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS
OPC WIND/WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS IN THIS MORNINGS UPDATES.

THE SEVERAL 4 FT BUOY REPORTS OVER THE COASTAL AND INNER
OFFSHORE WATERS S OF CAPE LOOKOUT ARE ABOUT 1 FT HIGHER THAN
LATEST WAVEWATCH III OR ECMWF WAM GUIDANCE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
W ATLC THIS GUIDANCE IS WELL INITIALIZED WITH WAVE HEIGHTS THIS
MORNING.

----------------------------------------------------------------
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NEAR CAPE MAY E ACROSS THE FAR NRN NT2 WATERS...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ASCAT PASSES FROM LATE WED
EVENING INDICATED THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE
OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE NT2 WATERS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA
INDICATE SOME STRIKES OVER CENTRAL NT2 ZONES WITH WEAKENING
CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING OFF N CAROLINA COAST.

THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT DURING THE IMMEDIATE
SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH DIFFERENCES
PERSISTING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE MAIN FCST
ISSUE WILL BE LOW PRES WHICH IS FCST BY ALL THE MODELS TO MOVE
OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE FRI MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN TRACK NE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS FRI
NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSING SE. THE 00Z UKMET HAS
TRENDED A BIT FASTER COMPARED TO THE 12Z RUN FROM
YESTERDAY...MAINLY AFTER 00Z SAT AND A BIT FURTHER N. THE 00Z
GFS SEEMS TO BE A DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE UKMET AND THE
12Z ECMWF FROM WED...AND IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE 00Z GEM. WITH THIS
IN MIND...PLAN TO POPULATE USING THE GFS 10M WINDS FROM TODAY
THROUGH 00Z MON. LOOKING AHEAD TO 00Z MON AND BEYOND...ANOTHER
LOW IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NT1 WATERS WITH THE 00Z UKMET
BEING THE FURTHEST N WITH THE TRACK AND THE GFS WEAKER AND
FURTHER S. IN THIS CASE...THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WEAKER FURTHER S GFS AND THE UKMET WHICH
IS MORE N...SO FOR NOW WILL POPULATE USING THE ECMWF WINDS
BEGINNING 00Z MON THROUGH THE END OF PERIOD. WILL MAKE FINAL
DECISION AFTER 00Z ECMWF ARRIVES.

.SEAS...THE 03Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE OBSERVED
SEAS CONTINUE TO MATCH UP WELL WITH THE MWW3. SIMILAR TO THE
WIND GRIDS...WILL USE THE MWW3 THROUGH 00Z MON...THEN WILL
TRANSITION TO ECMWF WAM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER CLARK/KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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