Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS
AGNT40 KWNM 240715
Marine Weather Discussion for N Atlantic Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
315 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017
.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Atlantic Ocean W of 50W from 30N to 50N.
Summary...The 00z ncep surface analysis shows a large high pres
ridge moving e over all of the coastal/offshore waters, and a
strong 994 mb low centered over se newfoundland. Latest
available ascat hi-res and ascat passes from a few hours ago
show 20 to 25 kt winds in nw flow over the georges bank zones
and the ne part of the nt2 waters in the pres gradient between
the low and the ridge, and 20 to 25 kt winds in e to ne flow
across the sw part of the nt2 area.
Models...00z gfs continues to look overdone with the strength of
the sw flow over the nt1 and nrn nt2 waters for today and
tonight, and the 00z gfs is also faster than most of the other
models for sat night through mon night. So the more
representative 00z ecmwf will be used for today through mon
night. The models are still in poor agreement regarding the
timing and trajectory of a low which is expected to move off the
mid atlantic coast tue and tue night, but the 00z gfs 10m looks
like a good median model solution, and will be used for tue
through the rest of the forecast period.
Seas...The 00z wna wavewatch and 00z ecmwf wam both initialized
well over the coastal/offshore waters, and are in decent
agreement for today through mon night with only minor
differences noted, so a 50/50 blend of the 00z wavewatch/wam
will be used for the sea height grids during that timeframe. The
00z wna wavewatch will be used exclusively for tue through the
rest of the forecast period, in order to be consistent with the
preferred 00z gfs model.
.Extratropical Storm Surge Guidance...N/A.
.NT1 New England Waters...
.NT2 Mid-Atlantic Waters...
.Forecaster Scovil. Ocean Prediction Center.