Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 310703
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
203 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...DVLPG LOW PRES CNTRD ABOUT 220 NM E OF CAPE COD WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NE TODAY AND TONITE...WHILE PASSING S OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND PULLING A STG COLD FRONT E TOWARDS BERMUDA. A HI PRES
RIDGE WILL BUILD SE OVER THE SW NT2 WTRS TODAY AND TONITE...THEN
MOVE SE ACROSS THE SRN NT2 WTRS SUN INTO SUN NITE AS ANOTHER RIDGE
BUILDS SE INTO THE NT1 AREA. ANOTHER DVLPG LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE
NRN MID ATLC COAST EARLY MON...MOVE NE ACRSS THE SRN NT1 WTRS
WHILE INTENSIFYING LATER MON...THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NE MON NITE
AND TUE WHILE CONTG TO INTENSIFY. THE LOW WILL PULL ANOTHER STG
COLD FRONT E ACROSS THE NT2 AREA MON INTO MON NITE. A LARGE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W MON NITE THROUGH TUE NITE...THEN PASS E
OVER THE OFSHR WTRS WED. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NEW
ENG AND NEW JERSEY COASTS WED NITE.

MODELS...THE 00Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS
THE OFSHR WTRS THRU THE FCST PRD...EXCEPT THE 00Z GFS IS A FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MDLS FOR MON THRU TUE...AND THE 00Z GEM IS TOO SLOW
FOR THE TUE NITE THRU WED NITE TIMEFRAME. THE 00Z GFS 30M LOOKS
REPRESENTATIVE WITH THE RECURRING STG WX FEATURES AND WILL BE USED
TO POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS THRU THE FCST PRD...EXCEPT IT WILL BE
TIME SHIFTED 6 HRS SLOWER OVER THE MON THRU TUE TIMEFRAME.

.SEAS...BOTH THE 00Z MULTIGRID WW3 AND 00Z ECMWF WAM INITIALIZED
WELL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS. THE 00Z ECMWF WAM IS SIGNIF HIGHER THAN
THE 00Z MWW3 FOR TODAY THRU SUN. THE MDLS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH PREFRONTAL GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS MON...BUT ECMWF WAM IS
HIGHER IN N TO NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NT1 AND NRN
NT2 WTRS FOR LATE MON INTO TUE. ACCORDINGLY...WILL USE A 2:1
ECMWF WAM/MWW3 BLEND FOR TODAY THRU SUN...THEN AGAIN FOR LATE MON
INTO TUE. OTHW...WILL POPULATE THE SEA HT GRIDS WITH A 50/50
BLEND DURING THE FCST PRD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...ESTOFS IS SHOWING A SIGNIF
MORE NEG SURGE THAN ETSS ALG THE NRN MID ATLC AND NEW ENG COASTS
FOR TODAY. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL STG OFSHR WIND EVENTS ESTOFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO NEG...SO THE SURGE VALUES SHOWN BY ETSS ARE
LIKELY MORE REASONABLE.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
     STORM TODAY.
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
     STORM TODAY.
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
     STORM TODAY.
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO SUN.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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