Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 230305
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
705 PM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

GOES IR IMGRY INDC A DEEPENING LOW CTRD NW OF THE OFSHR
WTRS...MOVG NE INTO THE ERN GULFAK. RSCAT FM 2330 UTC 45 TO 50 KT
BTWN THE FRNTL BNDRY AND HAIDA GWAII...AND CRNT SFC DATA INDC A
FEW GALES IN THAT VICINITY. THE 18Z GFS IS INIT OK WHEN COMPARED
WITH THE LTST SFC ANALYS...AND INDC THE SYSTEM WL BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 12Z TUE...WHILE DVLPG HURCN FRC WINDS NEAR THE LOW CTR. THE
GUID AGREES FAIRLY WELL ON THE TRACK AND INTNSTY TREND...ALTHO THE
GUID INDC THE WRNG CRITERIA WINDS WL RMN NW OF THE THE OFSHR WTRS.
ATTM. THE PREV FCST KEPT GALES N OF THE WAS WTRS...WHICH STILL
LOOKS GUD...SO WL CONT IN THE UPDATE PKG.

OTRW...THE MDLS STILL DIFFERING WITH THE SFC RFLCTN OF A SHRTWV
MOVG THRU THE CAL WTRS WED INTO THU...WITH THE GFS INDCG A MUCH
STGR SFC FRNTL WAVE. HOWEVER...MOSTLY ALL SOLNS INDC GALES IN THE
CAA...AS A RDG BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRNT...AND THE CSTL TROF
STRENGTHENS. THE 18Z GFS TRENDED STGR ALNG THE CAL COAST...AND
FURTHER AWAY FM MDL CONSENSUS. THE PREV FCST USED A CMPRMS
SOLN...WITH MRGNL GALES IN THE NRLY POST-FRNTL WINDS. THIS STILL
LOOKS RSNBL...SO WL CONT..AS CONFDC WITH THE GALES IS MDT WITH THE
BULK OF GUID INDCG THEM.

THE MDLS STILL SHOW SOME DIFFS ON FRI INTO SAT WITH ANTHR SHRTWV
MOVG SE INTO THE NRN WTRS...AND DVLPG A SFC LOW. THE MDLS HAVE
SHOWN NO SOLID TREND...SO CONFDC IN THE GUID IS LOW. ATTM
PREFERRING TO STICK WITH CONTINUITY...PREFERRING TO SEE IF A
TREND DVLPS IN THE 00Z CYCLE.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THERE AN ASCAT PASS FM 17Z THAT HAD A SWATH OVR MUCH OF THE SRN
CA WTRS WITH WINDS TO 30 KT ALG AND W OF 120W WHERE DATA WAS
AVLBL. THIS DATA FIT WELL WITH 12Z GFS 30M WINDS ASSOC WITH
COASTAL TROF OVR THE SRN AND CNTRL AREAS OF CA. ELSW DVLPG LOW
PRES WAS W OF THE WA WTRS AND INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY WHILE MOVG NE.
STALLED FNT EARLIER TDA IS LIFTING N AS A WM FNT AND IS ACRS THE
WA/OR WTRS. THE FNT SHUD LIFT N OF THE WTRS LATER TNGT. LATER TNGT
CD FNT ASSOC WITH STRENGTHENING LOW WL MOV E INTO THE WTRS. MDLS
HAV NOT TRENDED ANY STGR WITH WINDS AND WL STAY WITH WINDS TO 30
KT OVR THE WA WTRS. THE CD FNT MOVS SLOWLY SE OVR THE WTRS TUE AND
TUE NGT...AND THEN MOVS QUICKER SE ACRS THE CA WTRS AS STG AREA OF
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FM THE W AND NW WED AND WED NGT...BEFORE MOVG
INTO THE SRN CA WTRS LATE WED NGT AND THU. GFS HAS BACKED OFF A
BIT ON DVLPG LOW THAT APRS TO CROSS THE OR/NRN CA WTRS WED. THE
UKMET ALSO IMPLIES LOW PRES MOVG E OVR THIS REGION. AS THE HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN WED AND WED NGT WL HAV WINDS TO 40 KT OVR THE NRN
CA WTRS. THE STG AREA OF HIGH PRES BUILDS EWD THU INTO THU
NGT...AND BEGINS WEAKENING LATE THU NGT INTO FRI. DVLPG LOW PRES
MOVS SE OVR THE WA WTRS SAT AND INLAND SAT NGT. PLAN TO HAV GALES
WITH GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORTING GALES...ALTHO GFS IS A BIT QUICKER.
ANOTHER AREA OF STG HIGH PRES BUILDS E AND SE TOWARDS THE WA/OR
AND NRN AREAS OF CA LATE SAT AND SAT NGT.

.GRIDS...PLAN ON USING 12Z GFS 10M WINDS THRU TUE NGT...THEN 12Z
ECMWF MDL THRU RMNDR OF FCST PD. WL BE BOOSTING ECMWF HIGHER FM
12Z WED THRU 12Z FRI. WITH REGARDS TO SEAS WL BLEND WWIII AND
ECMWF INIT THRU TUE NGT...THEN BLEND WWIII WITH ECMWF WV GUID
40/60 THRU ABT FRI...THEN FAVOR ECMWF WV WITH LOW PRES CROSSING
THE WA WTRS SAT.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...NA.




.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
.PZZ805...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE WED.
.PZZ915...OUTER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE WED.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.PZZ920...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE WED.
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.PZZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE WED.
.PZZ830...INNER WATERS FROM PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
.PZZ835...INNER WATERS FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND, CA...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
.PZZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND, CA...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.
.PZZ840...INNER WATERS FROM SANTA CRUZ ISLAND, CA TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND, CA...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU.

$$

.FORECASTER KELLS/ROWLAND. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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