Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 101532
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
732 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.


THE SAT INDC CLDS OVR THE NRN WTRS AHEAD OF A FRNT WITH LIGHTNG
STRIKES WELL W OF THE WTRS. THE RADAR HAS JUST FEW DSLVG TSTMS
CELLS NR THE WASH WTRS. THE SREF HAS LESS THAN 5 PERCENT CHNCE OF
TSTMS OVR THE REGION AND THAT REMAINS THRU THE SHORT TERM. AT 12Z
HGH PRES 1024 MB JUST W OF THE WTRS MAINATINS A RIDGE OVR THE SRN
WTRS. A CLD FRNT LIES ACRS THE ERN PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL WTRS
THEN TURNS SW TO CUT ACRS THE SRN WTRS. ANOTHER FRNT LIES JUST W
OF THE NRN WTRS. A MODEST PRES GRDNT OVR THE NR WTRS BUT FAIRLY
SLCK OVR THE SRN WTRS. TE MAX OBSVD WINDS ARE 25 KT OVR THE NRN
WTRS. THE LAST ASCAT PASS AT 0515Z JUST TIUCHED THE WRN PARTS OF
CNTRL WTRS AND INDC NO WINDS HGHR THAN 25 KT OVR THE REGION. THE
HGHST SEAS ARE JUST 10 FT OVR THE WRN PARTS OF THE NRN WTRS AND
THE RANGE BTWN 6 AND 3 FT OVR THE SRN WTRS. THE NWW3 MULTI GRID
FITS VERY WELL WITH THE OBS AND IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWFWV.

AN UPPRLVL RIDGE IS INLAND JUST E OF THE WTRS WITH LITTLE TO NO
ENERGY OVR THE REGION. SOME ENERGY EMBDD IN A FWD HANGING UPPRLVL
TROF IS APPROX 600 NM W OF THE NRN WTRS. THIS ENERGY WILL MOVE N
AS IT WILL BE BLOCKED BY THE RIDGE WITH JUST A SEREIES OF WEAK
FRNTL BDNRIES REACHING THE NRN WTRS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPRLVL
RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND RETREAT S IN THE XTNDD PRD BUT
THE GRDNT WILL NOT TIGHTEN UBTIL AFTER THE FRCST PRD. THE MDL
CHOICE SHUD ONE WITH HGR WINDS OVR THE NRN WTRS AND THERE SHUD BE
NO WRNGS THRU THE FRCST PRD AS MAX WINDS SHUD ONLY BE 30 KT IN THE
XTNDD PRD.



-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING CD FNT WAS MOVG INTO THE E PORTIONS OF THE PZ5 WTRS
AND THE CENTRAL AND NRN CA WTRS AS PER 06Z FINAL SFC ANALYSIS.
WITH 06Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWING LTL EVIDENCE LEFT OF FNT IN TERMS OF
WND SFIFT...WILL DROP THIS FM SYNOPSIS. WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS
ELSW EXCP PICKING UP TWD 25 KT IN OUTER WTRS FM NRN CA NWD IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT APCHG FNTL SYSTEM. 00Z GFS 10M WINDS LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE. ELSW WK HIGH PRES RIDGE IS OVR CENTRAL CA WTRS AND
A WK INVERTED TROF ALG SRN CA CST.

ANOTHER FNTL SYSTEM COMING INTO THE WTRS AS AN OCLN AND CDFNT WKNS
WHILE MOVG INTO NRN OFFSHR WTRS WED. WL HAVE WINDS TO 25 KT
INADVOF FNT OVR THE WA/OR WTRS WED MRNG EXCP UP TO 30 KT EARLY OVR
OUTER WTRS WITH WINDS DMNSHG AS THE CD FNT CROSSES INTO THE ERN
AREAS AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED INLAND RDG SLOWS ITS PROGRESS. ANOTHER
CD FNT MOVS EWD OVR THE WA/OR WTRS THU AND THU NGT WHICH LOOKS A
BIT STRONGER AS ASCD LOW PRES SPRTD BY A DVLPG NEG TILT H5 SHRTWV
PASSES NW OF WTRS...WITH GFS/CNDN SHOWING LTLCHG. WILL USE BLEND
OF 75 PCT GFS AND 25 PCT ECMWF FOR WINDS THU INTO THU NIGHT TO
HANDLE PASSAGE OF FNT RESULTING IN MORE WDSPRD 25 TO 30 KT IN PZ5
WTRS AND 25 KT EXTENDING INTO NRN CA WTRS AHD OF FNT. 00Z MDLS
SHOW A TROF FOLLOWING THIS LOW AFTER IT LIFTS TO THE N FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT. 00Z MDLS THEN SHOW A WARM FNT CROSSING NRN WTRS SAT
INTO SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A CDFNT SUN INTO SUN NIGHT BUT MDLS
SHOW FNT STALLING IN NW PA5 AREA SUN NIGHT WITH PSBL WAVES FORMING
ON FNT TO SW. FOR THE NEW FCST PLAN TO USE 00Z GFS 10M WINDS THRU
SAT NIGHT EXCP TIME SHIFTED 3 HR FASTER WITH WARM FNT SAT...TOWARD
ECMWF...AND AFTER SAT NIGHT PREFER 00Z ECMWF/UKMET WHICH ARE NOT
AS STG WITH SW FLOW AHD OF FNT.

SEAS...WL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF MULTIGRID WWIII AND ECMWF WAM THRU
12Z SAT...THEN USE THE ECMWF WAM AFTWDS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER MUSONDA/BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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