Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 101133
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
733 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

VALID 00Z TUE MAR 11 2014 - 00Z TUE MAR 18 2014

A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE NW ALONG WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE AS PER BLENDED PRECIPITATBLE WATER LOOPS SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED ISLAND SHOWERS TODAY.  TRADE RETURN THRU
THU OCCURS AS AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES TO THE
EAST OF THE STATE AND SHIELDING HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE
ISLANDS...LIMITING RAINS TO MOST FAVORED WINDWARD TERRAIN.
VIGOROUS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE FRI INTO SAT AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS UNDERNEATH SHOULD
PROPEL A COLD FRONT AND ORGANIZED SHOWERS THROUGH THE STATE...WITH
A RETURN OF POST-FRONTAL TRADE FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND.  MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT IN SUPPORT OF
THIS PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...LIFTING FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

SCHICHTEL


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