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000
FXHW01 KWNH 051224
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
723 AM EST THU DEC 05 2013

VALID 00Z FRI DEC 06 2013 - 00Z FRI DEC 13 2013

FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF (5/00Z
CYCLE) WITH EASTWARD MID-LATITUDE MIGRATION OF UPPER-LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH FEATURE INVOF 167W. IN WHOLE...SOMEWHAT OF A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PROJECTED FOR THE PACIFIC MID-LATITUDE FLOW IN
THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE--AS A SLOW EROSION OF THE
EAST PACIFIC UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OCCURS ALONG/INVOF 140W. THE 5/00Z
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF PROG A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE
TROPICS TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG 145W AND BRUSH THE
EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE STATE. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE
EFFECTS OF THIS DISTURBANCE APPEAR NOMINAL FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER
PERSPECTIVE. BUT WITH LIGHT TRADES AND INCREASES IN PW VALUES
EXPECTED...ISOLATED CONVECTION WOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE INVOF THE
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.

LONG TERM...LIGHT TRADES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEYOND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND CLOSED
500 MB SYSTEM POISED TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ALONG/ACROSS 170W NEXT
THURSDAY (DAY 7).

VOJTESAK


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