Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 311209
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
809 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

VALID 00Z WED JUN 01 2016 - 00Z WED JUN 08 2016

MODELS SHOW GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH NEAR AVERAGE SPREAD WITHIN
THE ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE WEEK, NEXT WEEKEND, AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE THE AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROUGH NEAR 150W THIS WEEKEND, WITH ITS PROGRESSION AND
SLOW PASSAGE HELPING TO MAINTAIN A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE
SURFACE PATTERN AND THUS NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TRADES WITH
ACCOMPANYING NEAR AVERAGE FREQUENCY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE
STRONGEST TRADES ARE LIKELY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE TROUGH
PASSES AND POSSIBLY AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE TOUGH MOVES
PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER FROM THE REGION.

JAMES

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