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131
NOUS41 KWBC 241850 AAA
PNSWSH

Service Change Notice 17-22 Updated
National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring, MD
250 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

To:  Subscribers:
  -NOAA Weather Wire Service
  -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
  -NOAAPORT
  Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees

From:  Dave Myrick
  NWS Office of Science and Technology Integration

Subject:  Updated: Changes to LAMP and Gridded LAMP ceiling and
  visibility guidance and to the dissemination of GLMP
  wind gusts and probabilities of ceiling height
  and visibility effective March 29, 2017

Updated to increment number to 17-22 and make minor text
changes.

On or about Wednesday, March 29, 2017, beginning with the 1200
Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) model run, the NWS
Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) will implement
changes to the Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics
Program (LAMP) station-based and Gridded LAMP (GLMP) guidance.

LAMP station-based guidance is produced at more than 1600
stations in the Continental U.S. (CONUS), Alaska, Hawaii and
Puerto Rico.  GLMP guidance is generated on a 2.5-km Lambert
Conformal grid over the CONUS. LAMP station-based forecasts and
GLMP gridded observations and gridded forecasts (1 to 25 hour
projections) are produced hourly. These products are
disseminated on the Satellite Broadcast Network (SBN),
NOAAPORT, and are available in the operational National Digital
Guidance Database (NDGD).

Specific changes are as follows:

1. The LAMP system is being upgraded to statistically
incorporate model output from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh
(HRRR) model for the following weather elements at stations
over the CONUS:

  - Categorical ceiling height forecasts
  - Probabilities of categorical ceiling height
  - Categorical visibility forecasts
  - Probabilities of categorical visibility

The LAMP station data over Alaska, Hawaii and Puerto Rico are
not being upgraded at this time.

2. The GLMP system is being upgraded to statistically
incorporate model output from the HRRR model for the following
weather elements on a grid covering the CONUS domain:

  - Ceiling height forecasts
  - Probability of ceiling height less than 500 ft. forecasts
  - Probability of ceiling height less than 1000 ft. forecasts
  - Probability of ceiling height less than or equal to
3000 ft. forecasts
  - Visibility forecasts
  - Probability of visibility less than 1 mile forecasts
  - Probability of visibility less than 3 miles forecasts
  - Probability of visibility less than or equal to 5 miles
forecasts

The analysis fields of ceiling height and visibility
observations will be unchanged.

3. In June 2016, the GLMP system was upgraded to provide
gridded
guidance over the CONUS for:

  - 10m wind gusts observations
  - 10m wind gusts forecasts
  - Probability of ceiling height less than 500 ft. forecasts
  - Probability of ceiling height less than 1000 ft. forecasts
  - Probability of ceiling height less than or equal to 3000
    ft. forecasts
  - Probability of visibility less than 1 mile forecasts
  - Probability of visibility less than 3 miles forecasts
  - Probability of visibility less than or equal to 5 miles
    forecasts

At that time, it was determined that the above, then-new, GLMP
products would not be disseminated on the SBN or NOAAPORT until
such time as there was sufficient bandwidth available to
accommodate these new products. On implementation day, the GLMP
guidance for the above products will begin to be available on
the SBN and NOAAPORT.

No changes are being made with this implementation to the LAMP
stations for which guidance is provided, the WMO headers
associated with these products, the format of any of the
guidance products in LAMP or GLMP, or to the grid definition
for which GLMP guidance is provided.  These changes only impact
LAMP guidance over the CONUS.

Benefits of the system changes include improved forecast skill
of upgraded forecast elements over the CONUS through
redevelopment of linear regression equations and incorporation
of the HRRR-based predictors and added ability to resolve the
weather conditions over the CONUS that are depicted by the HRRR
model

All other LAMP and GLMP guidance is unchanged with this
implementation.

Because the LAMP ceiling height and visibility guidance
products have been updated to include predictors from the HRRR
model and no other LAMP guidance has been updated, it is
possible we will see  an increase in inter-element
inconsistencies between the LAMP guidance including the HRRR
model input and the LAMP guidance not including the HRRR model
input.This difference is most likely to be noticed with the
LAMP guidance for visibility and obstruction to vision. The
other LAMP elements will be upgraded in the future to
incorporate output from the HRRR model that will minimize
such inconsistencies.

Before implementation, images of the upgraded guidance can be
found at the Experimental LAMP website:

http://www.weather.gov/mdl/lamp_experimental

Once these changes are implemented, the products will be
available on the main LAMP website:

http://www.weather.gov/mdl/lamp_home

More details about LAMP/GLMP products and this implementation
can be found online at the LAMP Documentation web site:

http://www.weather.gov/mdl/lamp_docs

Dissemination:
With this upgrade the elements withheld from the last upgrade
will now be added to NOAAPORT/SBN. Please reference the
following Technical Implementation Notice for those details:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin16-
13griddedlampaaa.htm

There are no other changes to the dissemination with this
implementation. The LAMP and GLMP products continue to be
available in operational NDGD, SBN, NOAAPORT, and the NWS
server.

Details for the locations of the LAMP and GLMP products on the
NWS web servers can be found here:

http://www.weather.gov/mdl/lamp_NWS_tgftp_server

Complete lists of LAMP and GLMP WMO headers can be found here:

LAMP headers:
http://www.weather.gov/media/mdl/lampheaders_201403.pdf
GLMP headers:
http://www.weather.gov/media/mdl/glmpheaders_2016.pdf

The communication identifiers for the LAMP text and BUFR
products are shown in Tables 1 and 2 below.

Table 1: Communication identifiers for the GFS-based LAMP
products in ASCII format. Listed below are the WMO heading and
the AWIPS identifier.

WMO headingAWIPS ID
-------------------
FOUS11 KWNOLAVUSA

Table 2: Communication identifiers for the GFS-based LAMP
products in BUFR format.  Listed below are the WMO headings.

WMO headingRegion
-----------------
JSMF10 KWNOLAMP BUFR Pacific Region
JSMF11 KWNOLAMP BUFR Northeast Region
JSMF12 KWNOLAMP BUFR Southeast Region
JSMF13 KWNOLAMP BUFR North Central Region
JSMF14 KWNOLAMP BUFR South Central Region
JSMF15 KWNOLAMP BUFR Rocky Mountains Region
JSMF16 KWNOLAMP BUFR West Coast Region
JSMF17 KWNOLAMP BUFR Alaska Region

The communication identifiers for the GRIB2 products are shown
below in Tables 3 and 4.

Table 3:  Communication identifiers for the Gridded LAMP
ceiling height and visibility observation products in GRIB2
format

Listed below are representations of the WMO header: xx
represents the valid UTC hour (00-23).

WMO HEADERELEMENT
------------------
LCUAxx KMDLGridded ceiling height observations
LDUAxx KMDLGridded visibility observations

Table 4:  Communication identifiers for the Gridded LAMP
ceiling height and visibility forecast products in GRIB2 format

Listed below are representations of the WMO header: xx
represents the forecast projections (01-25).  For details about
the superheaders of these products, please refer to the link
for the GLMP headers referenced above.

WMO HEADERELEMENT
------------------
LMUAxx KMDLGridded ceiling height forecasts
LNUAxx KMDLGridded visibility forecasts
LMUCxx KMDLGridded probability of ceiling height less than
500 ft. forecasts
LMUDxx KMDLGridded probability of ceiling height less than
1000 ft. forecasts
LMUFxx KMDLGridded probability of ceiling height less than
or equal to 3000 ft. forecasts
LNUCxx KMDLGridded probability of visibility less than
1 mile forecasts
LNUExx KMDLGridded probability of visibility less than
3 miles forecasts
LNUFxx KMDLGridded probability of visibility less than or
equal to 5 miles forecasts

A consistent parallel feed of data will be made available in
the near future on the NCEP HTTP site.The data will be
available at the following URLs:

http://para.nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/noaaport/lmp
http://para.nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/noaaport/glmp

For questions, comments or requests regarding this
implementation, contact:

Judy Ghirardelli
National Weather Service
Meteorological Development Laboratory
Judy.Ghirardelli@noaa.gov
301-427-9496

Links to the LAMP products and descriptions can be found at:

   http://www.weather.gov/mdl/lamp_home

National Service Change Notices are online at:

   http://www.weather.gov/os/notif.htm



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