Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
ACUS48 KWNS 280815
SPC AC 280814
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
While a few episodes of severe weather are possible during the
extended period, predictability and/or the risk for higher-end
severe weather events appears too low for probabilities at this
...D4/Monday -- Lower Great Lakes to the Central Appalachians...
With a closed low lifting northeast across the Great Lakes region, a
corridor of strong south/southwesterly mid-level flow is expected to
overspread the region. Showers and storms will likely form ahead of
a trough/cold front advancing east. If sufficient
heating/destabilization occurs ahead of this boundary, the potential
for at least a few severe storms will likely exist. However,
uncertainty due to concerns regarding cloud cover earlier in the day
(as well as a lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates) casts doubt
upon forecast buoyancy, precluding probabilities.
...D6/Wednesday-D8/Friday -- Gulf Coast to Carolinas...
Northward moisture return in the wake of the previous system may
yield an uptick in severe potential from the Texas Gulf Coast
eastward during the second half of the week as a trough crosses the
region. However, ongoing inconsistency among models/runs does not
yield enough confidence for probabilities at this time.