Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 010834
SWOD48
SPC AC 010832

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL REGARDING ENERGY
DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF ERN U.S. TROUGH DAY4.  AS ONE SIGNIFICANT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...A SECONDARY SPEED MAX/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH THE
FL PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  GFS DOES NOT DEPICT THIS FEATURE
PARTICULARLY WELL AND WLY FLOW IS CONSIDERABLY DEEPER ACROSS THE
PENINSULA THAN THE ECMWF.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY PREDICTABILITY
WILL REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBS THIS PERIOD.

WEAK BUOYANCY WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE CONUS MUCH OF THIS WEEK UNTIL
PERHAPS DAY8 WHEN MODIFIED MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVANCE NWD ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  ECMWF EJECTS A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY WHILE
THE GFS DELAYS THIS EJECTING TROUGH.  UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT TO
OUTLOOK SEVERE IN THE PLAINS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 05/01/2016



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