Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS48 KWNS 250813
SWOD48
SPC AC 250811

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

VALID 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD.  FOR SATURDAY /DAY
4/...A RESIDUAL BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIFT NEWD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES COINCIDENT WITH A WEAKENING
TROUGH.  ALTHOUGH ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE
PRESENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE/COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS.  BY DAY 5
/SUNDAY/...A LOWER-LATITUDE BELT OF MODERATE FLOW MAY OVERSPREAD A
REINVIGORATING MOIST/UNSTABLE RESERVOIR OVER THE SRN PLAINS.  BY THE
LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS INDICATE A GENERAL
SLACKENING IN FLOW WILL TEND TO FAVOR MORE MESOSCALE-DRIVEN
STRONG/SEVERE EVENTS WHICH RESULT IN PREDICTABILITY CONCERNS.

..SMITH.. 05/25/2016


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