Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS48 KWNS 271002
SWOD48
SPC AC 271001

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE MID-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DURING DAYS 4-8 /MON-FRI/ NEXT
WEEK...THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH 1/ THE EVENTUAL EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF A PHASED FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE U.S. AND 2/
THE EWD ADVANCEMENT OF AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.  DESPITE THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE POSITIVE-TILT TO THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS
THE U.S. AND WITH THE COLD FRONT ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.  THIS COMBINED
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MUCH OF THE TSTM POTENTIAL WITH NWD
EXTENT BEING ELEVATED ATOP AN ANTECEDENT STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
SUGGESTS ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT FROM
PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES.

..PETERS.. 02/27/2015


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