Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310635
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
235 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
960PM UPDATE...REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM TO THE WEST IS
SLOWING. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WITH COOL AIR ALOFT...STRATOCU IS EXPD TO CONT INTO THE
EVE...THOUGH THESE SHOULD DCR SOME ERLY THIS EVE AS WK HIGH PRES
BLDS IN. SOME ISOLD LGT SHWRS N-E OF PIT SHOULD DSPT AS WELL WITH
THE BLDG HIGH. CLDS WL INCR AGAIN LTR TNGT AHD OF THE NXT ADVNG
SHRTWV. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE A LTL BLO THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEPENING UPR TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WL ADVN ACRS THE GT
LKS FRI WITH INCRG SHWR CHCS FRI. THE DEEP UPR TROF WL RMN ACRS
THE ERN CONUS SAT WITH A MOISTURE SWATH AND OMEGA ACRS MUCH OF THE
RGN...KEEPING CHCS FOR PCPN. COLDER AIR IS EXPD TO BEGIN TO MOVE
IN BEHIND THE INITIAL SFC LOW AS N-NE FLOW DVLPS FRI NGT INTO SAT.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR A LTL SNW TO MIX IN WITH RAIN SHWRS AT TIMES SAT
MRNG...BUT A WRM BNDRY LYR SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL AND PREVENT
ANY ACCUMS OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES SE OF PIT. IN THE RIDGES...EXP A
GRDL CHG OVR TO MAINLY SNW SAT IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GENLY
EXP A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNW IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN GRASSY
AREAS BEFORE THE PCPN BEGINS TO DMNSH SAT NGT. THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT IS LTD WITH N-NE FLOW...AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO DMNSH BY
THE TIME NW UPSLOPE FLOW DVLPS.

BLDG HIGH PRES AND DRY WEA IS PROGGED FOR SUN. TEMPS SHOULD AVG
BLO SEASONAL LVLS THRU THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS BASED ON GEFS/ECENS MEANS.
A COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL BY TUESDAY AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER...MUCH MORE SHALLOW TROUGH IS
PROJECTED FOR A MID WEEK...WITH PROMISE OF AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR AND OCCASIONAL
HIGH END MVRF CEILINGS. CALM TO LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION. LOWERED
VISIBILITY AT ONSET OF RAIN BUT MAINTAINED WITHIN MVFR CATEGORY
THROUGH ABOUT 00Z SAT. CIGS WILL STAY INTO MVFR AND COULD EASILY DROP
INTO IFR CATEGORY SAT MORNING AS THE LOW POSITIONS ITSELF NEARLY
OVERHEAD.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSLOPING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN SHWR AND STRATOCU POTENTIAL
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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