Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242002
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
302 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES
EAST OF PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT WILL CROSS REGION THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH
STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. CURRENT WIND ADVISORY END TIME STILL
LOOKS GOOD AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL SLACKEN A BIT.
ONLY STRAY SHOWERS NOW AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE HEAD EAST AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL
SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR
WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE
ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF
WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OF
SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS SYSTEM
AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY COASTAL EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE
RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY
FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AND SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON VISIBILITY...STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE OF GREATER CONCERN. EXPECT SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
WIND OF 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE FRONTS PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING BUT GUSTS TO 20KTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. PER THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBS...SOME
MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A PERIOD THROUGH
THE EVENING BUT WITH THE LOW LIFTING THE LOWER CIGS TO THE NORTH
OPTED TO CARRY VFR FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE REGION TODAY. HERE IS
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE STANDING
RECORDS AND YEARS OF RECORD OCCURRENCE.

CITY                     FORECAST  RECORD/YEAR
PITTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL    71         69/1931
MORGANTOWN                  74         72/1979
ZANESVILLE                  65         70/2001
NEW PHILADELPHIA            65         71/1979
WHEELING                    71         70/2001
DUBOIS                      67         61/1979

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023-041.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$







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