Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS61 KPBZ 250448
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1248 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY A STRAY
SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE HEADING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH.
OTHERWISE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S WILL RECOVER INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR WORKS
IN BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE SUNDAY
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE 7 DAY
FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND H850 TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STUNTED DUE TO INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES (78 DEGREES FOR
PITTSBURGH) FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE BEST MATCHING ANALOGS AND LOCAL
STUDIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN GENERAL. IF
CLOUD COVERAGE DOES END UP LESS THAN EXPECTED, RECORD TEMPERATURES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE RECORD FOR
NEXT TUESDAY IS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN DATES BOTH BEFORE AND
AFTER. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING SO POPS WERE INCREASED THEN AND OVERNIGHT
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING FROM TIME TO TIME. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
AN INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BY LATE MORNING WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KTS LIKELY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS
WILL STAY GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










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