Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 200738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
338 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM ADVCTN AND THICKENING CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE MUCH MORE OF A
TEMP DROP THIS MRNG...WITH MANY READINGS FM ALNG AND N OF I 70
RISING. THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN
WAS THUS DROPPED EARLY AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH
EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS SHIELD/ENCROACHING ALTOSTRATUS AND GENL
TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S IN THE ADVISORY AREA EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING
BEFORE SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV THAT IS SPEWING UPR AND MID LVL CLDINESS
OVR THE REGION...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR BY EVE.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LGT PCPN HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT
OVRALL NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING FURTHER ADJUSTED FOR A
LATER START GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS
WELL AS THE LATEST MDL TRENDS.

MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC/CS THRU TDA AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

15/07

$$





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