Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS61 KPBZ 191416
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
916 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FINE LINE ON RADAR IS THE BACK EDGE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
FLURRIES WITH SURFACE TROUGH AND BACK EDGE OF STRETCHED VORT
BEHIND SHORTWAVE EXITING EAST. ALLOWED ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE AS
RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE OBS SHOW DIMINISHING TREND TO PRECIP AND
HAVE ISSUED SPS TO COVER REMAINING PATCHY PRECIP. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD IN THROUGH TONIGHT SO HAVE ADJUSTED
SKY GRIDS UP. NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK OPEN WAVE TRIES TO SKIRT THE SRN EXTENT OF THE SFC
HIGH SAT AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND IT FURTHER SOUTH
WELL OUT OF OUR REGION. AFTER LARGELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS SWRLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE SFC HIGH. THIS WILL WORK TO DRIVE WARMER TEMPS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS DRIVING ABOVE AVERAGE HEADING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THE DETAILS OF HOW
THIS EXACTLY UNFOLDS WILL BE CRITICAL. BY MONDAY SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF MAIN NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
MOVING OFF SHORE OF THE EAST COAST. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES MAY BE
BRUSHED BY LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. NEXT UP IS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER
OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD FRONT AND COLD
ADVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT AND FAST DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE TIMING OF COLD AIR AND EXACT TRACK WILL LIKELY CHANGE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS. ALL IN ALL PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
LITTLE CHANGED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON NEWEST WPC
EXTENDED PROGS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR TO ISOLATED IFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







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