Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS61 KPBZ 142200 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
600 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH LIMITED MIXING TODAY AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES DOWN FAIRLY WELL EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR IS A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS SNUCK UP THE
TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TUCKER/GARRETT/PRESTON COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...AN OPTIMAL RADIATION NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WITH
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR 40F...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FAIR AMOUNT OF FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. A FROST ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR FOREST COUNTY...WHERE THEY WERE ALREADY LARGELY IN
THE MID 30S LAST NIGHT...WITH TONIGHT LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST AS
COLD. FARTHER SOUTH...FROST COVERAGE LOOKS MORE PATCHY/LOW
LYING/OUTLYING AREAS IN ADJOINING COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER
TERRAIN AROUND THE RIDGES. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR FARTHER
SOUTH WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF A BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD
TUCKER/GARRETT. SHOULD THESE LINGER AND STRATUS REMAIN...LOWS WILL
LIKELY STAY UP A FEW DEGREES HERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE MONTH SO FAR...HOWEVER FROST DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LARGELY
UNLIKELY AWAY FROM THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST ZONES AND DEEPER/MORE
ISOLATED VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLDS WL INCR LTR MON AS AN ADVNG SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVES
INTO THE GT LKS AND RTNS SHWR CHCS BY MON EVE/NGT. NUDGED POPS UP
FM PIT NWD WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT AND MOISTURE IS PROGGED. THIS
SYSTEM WL QUICKLY EXIT BY TUE MRNG AS HIGH PRES BLDS ACRS THE GT
LKS UNDER A COOL...WK UPR TROF. TEMPS ARE EXPD TO AVG 5-10 DEG BLO
SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES...UNDR BROAD ERN CONUS TROFG...IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL WEATHER UNTIL A SHRTWV EMERGES OVR THE NRN
PLAINS AND INITIATES WARM ADVCTN FOR POINTS EWD BY WEEKS END. TEMP
MODERATION IS THUS FORECAST BY SATURDAY...AND INCRSD POPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LIFR-MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
BEFORE DAWN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VFR.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ADVNG CDFNT WL LIKELY BRING RSTRNS MON NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ009.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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