Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 290510 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1110 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 821 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014 TRIMMED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF THE SNOW EARLIER IN THE EVENING SINCE THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE MID DECK...WITH CLOSEST SNOW REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. 00Z NAM ALSO KEEPS SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH 12Z...AND STRUGGLES ALLOWING PRECIP TO REACH WESTERN IOWA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ON MONDAY. CUT BACK ON SNOWFALL JUST A BIT TOO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014 PER LARGE SCALE FLOW...MODELS REMAIN IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A BROAD UPPER TROF INITIALLY ACROSS THE CONUS BEFORE DEVELOPMENT OF POS TILT LONG WAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WEST COAST. BY WED MORNING...MODELS PROG SRN PORTION OF TROF EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED CUT OFF LOW SLOWLY MIGRATING INTO THE SWRN STATES. ALL THIS LEADING TO A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR...WITH LEADING EDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS ND/MN...ALONG WITH SNOW DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT LAST SEVERAL RUNS INDUCING SNOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER INVOF LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC FRONT...WHERE 285K ISENTROPIC FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND COND PRES DEF WILL BE WEAKEST. IN ADDITION...STOUT UPPER SUPPORT VIA DPVA WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCING SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. AT THIS POINT EXPECT SNOW ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY EXPAND SWD THRU TONIGHT THEN OVER THE REST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE COMING TO A CLOSE THEN MON EVENING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING CAA/SUBSIDENCE. WEAK MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAINS THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW GOING FCST WITH 2 INCHES NORTH AND AN INCH SOUTH STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...BULK OF CAA PUSHES IN MID WEEK WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY STRUGGLING TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT CLOSED LOW OVER THE SWRN STATES ON THURSDAY WILL MIGRATE INTO ERN TX FRIDAY EVENING...BUT THEN DIVERGE ON EXPECTED TRACK. THE ECM IS CONTINUING DELAY LIFTING THE UPPER LOW UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN IT LIFTS IT OUT OF OK THEN INTO THE TN/OH VLY ON SUNDAY...LEAVING THE CWA DRY. MEANWHILE THE GFS...GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE CMC...LIFTS THE UPPER LOW INTO ERN KS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING....THEN INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...PREFER TO FAVOR COMBINATION OF GFS/CMC WITH MAINTAINING SMALL SNOW POPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...GOING MAX TEMP FCST LOOKING ON TRACK WITH VALUES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014 STILL WAITING FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP AT ALL THREE TAF SITES...ONCE THE DRY AIR SATURATES DOWN. SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP AT KOFK BY 10-12Z...AND KLNK/KOMA BY 15-18Z. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH ALSO INCREASE TO 12 KNOTS OR GREATER ONCE THE SNOW ARRIVES...AND CONDITIONS TRANSITION TO MVFR THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW ENDS AT KOFK BY 23Z...AND 01-02Z AT KOMA/KLNK. AMOUNTS 1 TO 2 INCHES AT KOFK...AND LESS THAN AN INCH AT KLNK/KOMA. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DEWALD SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...DEWALD

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