Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 190452 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1152 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014 MAIN CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH COLD FRONT SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN NORTHEAST KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE EVEN MORE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AS LOW LEVEL JET RIDES OVER WARM FRONT. WITH WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD...WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE PROGRESS SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT. MUCH OF THE AREA COULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA SEEING BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. AM NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING WITH COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH INTO KANSAS BY THEN. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014 NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THEN A SLOW-MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST BY GFS/ECMWF TO WANDER INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY...THEN MORE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN 70 AND 75 FOR HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED EACH DAY...GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAKNESS IN MID LEVEL FLOW...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR OFF-AND-ON PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014 MVFR/IFR STRATUS WAS OVERSPREADING ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. CIGS BETWEEN FL006 TO FL012 SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WITH SOME LIGHT FOG REDUCING VSBYS TO 5SM AT TIMES. THEN SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE AFTER 15Z WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...NWS LONG TERM...NWS AVIATION...DERGAN

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