Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 241122 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 622 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017 WV imagery this morning showing an upper level closed low over the mid MS vly getting kicked eastward in response to a well amplified ridge extending from the from Great Basin into central Canada building into the Plains. Father upstream...a quite potent vort max was making landfall over southern British Columbia. With the exception of possible isolated showers Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon...dry conditions will prevail heading into this weekend in addition to a warming trend thanks to increasing thkns. Should translate to highs increasing from the mid 60s this afternoon to the mid 70s on Thursday...then upper 70s by Friday. Friday afternoon...both the NAM and GFS hit the development of a convective complex in the Neb panhandle where activity will be induced by cyclonic turning of low level geostrophic winds are progged to intersect with 850mb frontogenetic forcing. MCS is progged to reach the CWA then sometime toward midnight. A moisture rich environment will be in place...KI 35-40....PWS 1.5". Did note though the latest ECM/CMC both lag about 6hrs behind the NAM/GFS bringing the complex into the CWA. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017 Precip chances continue Sunday night into early next week. GFS/ECM in agreement showing large scale flow becoming somewhat less progressive during the extended periods with several potent embedded impulses riding down the backside of a large...closed off upper low as it migrates toward the Great lakes region. And with northwesterly flow prevailing aloft over the region...expect highs to a bit on the below normal side with temperatures generally topping out in the mid 70s. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017 Area surface observations and IR satellite data indicate patchy clouds (FL050-060) drifting south across portions of eastern NE and southwest IA as of 11z. These clouds will shift to the south of the TAF sites this morning with scattered to broken diurnal cumulus developing at the top of the boundary layer by midday. Light north winds will gradually shift to southeast by tonight.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...Mead

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