Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 040251 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 951 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015 A COUPLE OF AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH THE BULK OF THE STORMS TIED TO THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM TS KEVIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND THERE IS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40KTS FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS NORTHEAST WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT. PWATS ARE AROUND 1.5+ INCHES SHOULD AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. NAM IS A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH THE PRECIP...HOWEVER THE HRRR/RAP NOT AS HIGH WITH THE COVERAGE COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS. THE SPC SREF STILL HAS SCT COVERAGE FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WILL CARRY AN ISO-SCT MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015 WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...WITH DIGGING UPPER LOW IN THE WEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WERE SUBTLE AND WELL-REMOVED FROM THE PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGE AT 850MB WAS FIRMLY LOCKED OVER THE CENTRAL TO HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOMING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND 8C+ DEWPOINTS EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD. SURFACE LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ND...WITH SURFACE TROUGH EVIDENT THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD NORTHEAST NM. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH GREATER CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE LEANING DRY TONIGHT...AND HAVE A HARD TIME ARGUING WITH THAT SOLUTION...AS AREA REMAINS SQUARELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER- LEVEL RIDGING. IT IS A `DIRTY RIDGE` THOUGH...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...AND EVEN WEAK WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION INTO NORTHEAST NEB TONIGHT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A STRAY SHOWER/STORM. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE IN A LIMITED AREA. TOMORROW LOOKS MUCH LIKE TODAY...AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG AND UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SIMILAR SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT MAY ALSO TRIGGER A STRAY SHOWER/STORM AGAIN IN THE SAME AREA OF NORTHEAST NEB. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY FROM CENTRAL NEB TOWARD EASTERN SD ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG A DRYLINE FEATURE. THIS MAY JUST SKIM NORTHEAST NEB BEFORE 00Z...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE EASTWARD ON SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS CONVECTION BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS. WITH THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING COMES A MORE ROBUST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015 CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL FILL IN ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. WITH THE 850MB FRONT STILL LINGERING IN THE MO RIVER VALLEY...MAY SEE SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER...DRAGGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL US. THIS SHOULD STABILIZE THE CENTRAL US AND LIKELY DRIVE THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WELL SOUTH INTO KS/MO. SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY THAN THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS INSTABILITY IS PUSHED SOUTH...WITH SOME DEFORMATION-TYPE RAIN POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL BLEND PRODUCED PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...BUT WITH ALL MODELS DRY...SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA...AND BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH IN TX/AR...CANNOT FIND A REASON TO KEEP A PRECIP MENTION...AND IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE REMOVED IT. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KOFK AT THIS POINT. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY SHORT TERM...MAYES LONG TERM...MAYES AVIATION...KERN

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