Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 010823 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 223 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 220 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015 FCST CONCERNS THIS MORNING REMAIN FOCUSED UPON ANTICIPATED PCPN EVENT MONDAY AFTN THRU TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS IN AGREEMENT INCREASING DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH NRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROF WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK INTENSIFICATION AS IT PUSHES THRU THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES WITH 500MB HGT FALLS AROUND 160M PROGGED TO SPREAD ACROSS NEB/KS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN TURN INDUCES SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER ERN CO. DECENT GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY BY THAT TIME...AND BE IN PLACE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS/ECM ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART PCPN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT OVER NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THRU MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PINNING DOWN PCPN TYPE AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT ARE PROBLEMATIC AT BEST. THERMAL PROFILE/COBB OUTPUT INDICATE A MIX IS PROBABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT GIVEN RELATIVELY LATE ARRIVAL OF CAA NEEDED TO MAKE POSSIBLE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL FROZEN. AT ANY RATE...DECIDED TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO RANGE OF AMOUNTS WITH NOW 1 TO 2 INCHES GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE NRN CWA. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 220 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015 GFS/ECM MAINTAIN A DRY FCST IN THE EXTENDED PDS...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE. REGARDING TEMPS...METEOGRAMS ADVERTISE A RATHER GENEROUS REBOUND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING THKNS BUILDING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. FOR NOW...ECMMOS/MEX VALUES SEEM REASONABLE PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S ON FRI/SAT/SUN. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015 BAND OF MVFR CIGS CONTS TO WORK SEWD AND WILL CLEAR THE KOMA/KLNK TERMINALS BY 08Z. UNTIL THEN A FEW FLURRIES CONT TO BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS CLOUD DECK. ONCE THIS DECK CLEARS WE EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. A SFC CDFNT WILL MOV THROUGH ALL 3 TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD SWITCHING WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. THIS WILL MOVE THROUGH KOFK AROUND 14Z AND KOMA/KLNK AROUND 17-18Z. A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

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