Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 250351 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1051 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(tonight through Thursday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016 Latest water vapor imagery in addition to 12z upper air analysis shows a weak ridge axis moving across the High Plains this afternoon. Also of note off the 12z upper air analysis was extremely dry layer around 850mb, which if realistic, will take quite some time to moisten. Surface high pressure ridge axis currently extends to the east of the region with dry southeasterly return flow increasing across our forecast area. Isentropic upglide will increase overnight in strong low level warm air advection regime but moisture will be a limiting factor to produce any significant precipitation until later on Tuesday. A bit of drizzle/fog can`t be completely ruled out overnight as the NAM would suggest, but do think much of the area will remain dry until later Tuesday. A quick moving and subtle shortwave trough will roll east across Nebraska Tuesday afternoon while a surface low deepens over eastern Nebraska. A warm front is forecast to extend southeast into western Missouri with near 60 degree dewpoints in the warm sector. Forcing for vertical ascent will increase during peak heating as the upper shortwave approaches eastern Nebraska. Short-lived window of opportunity for a few strong storms will exist across far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa as marginal instability works north before sunset. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into late Tuesday night until the upper shortwave trough axis and associated surface low finally push east. Behind this system, unidirectional flow and a tight surface gradient should bump northwest winds up to the breezy category. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016 Upper ridging will build east toward the area by late in the work week with temperatures returning to above normal. A week cold front will slide through the region Friday or Saturday but should come through dry. Return flow increases by late in the weekend with above normal temperatures for next Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016 VFR conditions are expected through the day. Ceilings will lower to mid-levels through the day, but bulk of chances for showers/storms should hold off until around 22Z or later at TAF sites. Have included PROB30 mention for thunder at all sites, along with prevailing of either showers or vicinity showers. MVFR ceilings could move in behind the precipitation, and through 06Z, have included at KOFK and KOMA (KLNK may need a mention past the end of this TAF cycle). && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kern LONG TERM...Kern AVIATION...Mayes is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.