Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 011126 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 526 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 221 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING AND NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR SCANS SHOWS THAT THE SNOW IS BEGINNING TO WANE OVERALL. SOME EMBEDDED STRONGER SNOW BANDS ARE PRESENT NEAR SCHUYLER/NORTH BEND WITH ANOTHER ENHANCED AREA DRIFTING NORTHEAST TO THE OMAHA/CB METRO AREA. METARS ARE SHOWING VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 1 TO 2 MILES. WE DID HEAR OF ONE REPORT OF THUNDER...BUT NEVER DID SEE THAT SHOW UP IN THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NET. THUS FAR SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN AVERAGING 4 TO 9 INCHES IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. MANY AREAS PROBABLY WON`T ACHIEVE THE WINTER STORM CRITERIA AMOUNT OF 8 INCHES. BUT...WE FEEL THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS JUSTIFIED DUE TO THE EXTREMELY POOR ROAD CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AND THE EXPECTED NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TODAY WHEN THE WINDS KICK IN. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING...MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN DEEP AND STILL WELL LOCATED WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS SNOW PRODUCTION REMAINS GOOD...THOUGH OVERALL SYSTEM LIFT IS PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. FOR NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOCUSED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. AS OF 9Z WINDS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP AT OFK/LCG/ONL AND EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE VERY WINDY BY LATE THIS MORNING. RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DECENT MIXING MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AREN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION. NOT SURE IF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED LONG ENOUGH ALONG WITH LOW VISIBILITIES TO NECESSITATE A BLIZZARD WARNING. CONDITIONS WILL SURELY BE VERY POOR...THUS WE ADDED NEAR-BLIZZARD WORDING TO THE LATEST WINTER STORM WARNING UPDATE. THE SNOW SHOULD BE FINISHED JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. DECIDED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER IN PLACE. LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR...OPTED FOR LOW CHANCES FOR NOW. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST IT STRENGTHENS AND OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD PICK UP A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 221 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015 NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETS UP BY SATURDAY. ONE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ROLLING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE. TIMING AND TRACK OF SNOW WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER SOMEWHAT IN SHOWING MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA GETTING LIGHT SNOW AT SOME POINT TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE INCH OR TWO RANGE GIVEN LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT AND PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS WILL ONLY GAIN A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIP AND A SWITCH TO NORTHERLY WINDS. COLDER AIR SETTLING SOUTH BEHIND SHORTWAVE WILL GIVE US A COLD START THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SOME SUB-ZERO READINGS LIKELY. A QUICK REBOUND STILL LOOKS ON TRACK THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY...WHICH CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THUS A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS FORECAST...CLIMBING FROM THE 20S THURSDAY TO THE 30S AND PERHAPS LOWER 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 523 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015 IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 35KT WILL CREATE OCCASIONAL VSBYS AT OR BELOW 1SM. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z...THEN DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10KT BY 06Z. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 00Z...THEN SCATTER OUT BEFORE 06Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011- 016-017-030-031-090>093. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ012-015- 018-032>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088-089. IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055- 056-069-080-091. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ079-090. && $$ SHORT TERM...PEARSON LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...DERGAN

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