Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 222318 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 618 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 So far, the cap has been holding. The synoptic scale cold front is still northwest of Omaha and Lincoln, so still potential yet this evening. Even after the front passes, there may be some activity behind the boundary. 22Z SPC mesoanalysis suggests cap is weakest to the north and northeast of Omaha, with lowest 100 mb MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and CINH less than 25. RAP model may be a bit overdone with precipitation coverage and amounts, based on what happened last evening. 21Z ESRL HRRR suggest some activity developing by 01Z and then even into tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 12z upper-air analysis revealed a belt of stronger cyclonic flow from the northern Rockies into the Dakotas with an embedded short- wave trough over the northern High Plains. This disturbance will track southeast into the mid MO Valley tonight into early Friday, enhancing forcing for ascent and vertical shear ahead of it. In the low levels, mesoanalysis depicted a cold front stretching from north-central IA through northeast into south-central NE as of early afternoon. The boundary layer ahead of this front has been warming and moistening today, which when coupled with the steep lapse rates aloft is yielding a moderately unstable air mass this afternoon. Considerable elevated convection is ongoing across the area as of 19z, likely rooted within the EML/steep lapse-rate plume. And latest convection-allowing model guidance remains relatively consistent in suggesting that surface-based storms will become increasingly probable in the 22-00z time frame, generally along the I-80 corridor. A few of these storms could become strong to severe this evening with locally damaging winds and hail being the primary hazards. Showers and thunderstorm chances should diminish from north to south tonight into early Friday as a cooler, continental-polar air mass advances south into the region. This air mass will remain in place over the mid MO Valley through the weekend with daytime highs in the 70s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Longwave troughing from Hudson Bay into the OH Valley at the onset of the long-term forecast period will gradually shift east ahead of an evolving trough over western Canada into the northwestern states. The latter trough will subsequently progress east into the north-central Plains, supporting an increase in precipitation chances by about the middle of next week. Daytime highs will gradually warm back through the 80s during the early to middle part of the upcoming work week. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Wind shift will move through the KOMA and KLNK areas early this evening. Generally expect VFR conditions through the period. Ceilings with any TSRA could drop below 2500 feet and vsby could drop below 3 miles, but confidence on exactly when and where is not high enough to include in TAFs. Will amend as needed. Expect variable mid clouds after 06z. North winds may be a bit gusty right behind the cold front for a while, then decrease.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...Miller SHORT TERM...Mead LONG TERM...Mead AVIATION...Miller is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.