Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 271125 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 625 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017 Area of cool high pressure continues to build southeast across the forecast area allowing winds to become light and variable in our western areas. A clearing line continues to slowly move east and morning temperatures continue to drop to below freezing in clear areas. Although temps under the blanket of clouds are above freezing, we are going to continue frost/freeze headlines with any additional clearing allowing temperatures to drop by sunrise. After a chilly start to the day, dry and cool conditions are expected through much of the day with light winds as the surface ridge axis slides east over the area. By this afternoon, an upper-level shortwave will move east out of the Colorado Rockies providing large scale motion for ascent across northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. Point forecast soundings indicate quite a bit of dry air to overcome preventing much, if any, pcpn north of I-80 before 03z. Pops will gradually increase and spread north overnight as additional shortwave energy rotates around a developing upper level low over the western CONUS. Forcing for ascent should subside quickly by Friday afternoon while a cooler/drier airmass drops out of the Dakotas. Attention turns to strengthening western upper low which is forecast to deepen over the Four Corners region late Friday night and drift east/northeast across Kansas and into northern Missouri by early Monday and eventually into the Great Lakes region Monday evening. Ahead of this, the warm conveyor belt will bring a significant amount of Gulf moisture into the Midwest. The associated surface low will track northeast from north central Texas Saturday afternoon into northeastern Missouri by Sunday afternoon, leaving our area on the cool side of the system. Precipitation should begin to spread north out of Kansas and Missouri and into our southern counties overnight Friday into early Saturday morning with rain showers becoming widespread over the entire forecast area by Saturday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017 Widespread precipitation will continue ahead of the upper low through the day Sunday with deformation zone passing overhead Sunday night into Monday. With temperature profiles across northeast Nebraska showing lows in the low to mid 30s across our north and 850mb temps around -5 to 0C, there is a potential for some snowfall accumulations, especially across northeast Nebraska. Have bumped Sunday/Sunday night winds up to the breezy category with strong momentum transfer around the backside of the system. Precipitation could linger into early Monday depending on timing of the system, with a rapid warm up into the 60s for Tuesday. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017 Break between clearing and ceilings 2500-4000 feet was generally along a line from about KOFK to near KLNK as of 11Z, and there was a break in the clouds near KOMA. Expect SCT to BKN conditions at KOFK and KLNK this morning until that moves east. Clouds will linger longer at KOMA. Winds should decrease as high pressure ridge builds over the area. Ceilings will decrease tonight as moisture increases. MVFR conditions possible mainly at KLNK after 06Z.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ044-045- 051>053-065>068-078-088>093. Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042-043-050. IA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for IAZ055-056-069- 079-080-090-091. Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kern LONG TERM...Kern AVIATION...Miller

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