Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 291128 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 628 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 TODAY REGIONAL RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWING AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE CWA WITH AREAL COVERAGE GRADUALLY SHRINKING AND EXPECT THE PCPN ACTIVITY...PER LATEST HRRR...EXITING THE CWA DURING RUSH HOUR. MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH THEN IS TIMING COLD FRONT/TSTM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. MSAS CURRENTLY SHOWING THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MID WEST WITH PCPN ACTIVITY TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BNDRY. HRRR/RAP13 IN AGREEMENT THE BNDRY WILL BE QUICK IN NATURE AND SHOULD BE CROSSING INTO THE NRN CWA SHORTLY BEFORE NOON. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH EXPECT CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY LATE THIS AFTN ALONG AXIS OF STEEP 0-3KM LAPSE RATE. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH PWS AROUND 1.5" AND KI VALUES APPROACHING 40. AS FOR TEMPS...QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE NRN CWA WILL SEE DAYTIME HIGHS REACHED BY EARLY AFTN WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPS THEREAFTER. DEE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY COLD FRONT MAY BE VERY NEAR I80 THEN QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 06Z AND BEYOND. WILL MAINTAIN 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREA BEFORE 7 AM SATURDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THAT LINGERS INTO SATURDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH MORNING CLOUDS...BUT SKIES QUICKLY BECOME SUNNY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING. SOMEWHAT COOL DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A REALLY NICE DAY...ALTHOUGH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS COULD OCCUR. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AND TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY ALLOW A WEAK SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM COULD ALSO AFFECT THE SAME AREA MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD VERY WELL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 IFR CONDITIONS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE MO RIVER VLY THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND KOMA WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. COLD FRONT DROPPING THRU ERN NEB THIS AFTN MAY INITIATE SCT TSRA ALONG THE BNDRY AT KOMA AND KLNK. AREAL COVERAGE THOUGH SHOULD BE SMALL IN NATURE AND DO NOT EXPECT TSRA INTENSIFICATION TILL LATE THIS AFTN JUST SOUTH OF KLNK. EXPECT WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW AT KOFK AROUND 15Z...AND KOMA/KLNK AROUND 21Z WITH CROSSWIND THREAT HIGH AT ALL TERMINALS. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...DEE

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