Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 232043 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 343 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014 THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE AXIS FROM CNTRL MN INTO CNTRL NEB. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP EWD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY. THE 850 MB MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST WILL START TO ADVECT EWD OVERNIGHT ON A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WITH MASS CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEB LATE TONIGHT. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDC LITTLE CAPPING FOR A PARCEL LIFTED FROM AROUND H7 AFTER 09Z. THUS EITHER NEW CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN NEB...OR SD CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO NE NEB LATE TONIGHT. AS THE LOW- LEVEL JET VEERS TOWARD MORNING...AND INTO THE DAY ON THU SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REST OF ERN NEB AND EVENTUALLY WRN IA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THOUGH IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING ON THU...ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING AS A STRONG EML SPREADS INTO ERN NEB. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AFTER CAPPING BECOMES TO STRONG. A BREEZY AND WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE ON THU NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRI. THE STRONG EML IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION NORTH AND EAST AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THU EVENING AND NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR FRI AHEAD A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIP SWD THRU THE DAY. THE NAM/SREF ARE FASTER WITH THE FRONT AND LIKELY A BIT TO FAST...BUT THE GFS APPEARS TO SLOW. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE SOUTH TO SOAR TO NEAR 100 WITH MUCH COOLER UPPER 80S IN THE NORTHERN CWA. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG INSTABILITY ON FRI WE SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN THE STRONG EML WITH +14-16 C AT H7. A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION DOES MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE FRI NIGHT AND MAYBE INTO THE DAY ON SAT. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FRI AFTN ON THE HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN UPSLOPE FLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY RIDE THE TOP OF THE EML AND MAYBE INTO THE CWA LATE FRI NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SAT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014 WELL BELOW NORMAL WEATHER IS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO SPILL ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE PERIOD APPEARS DRY...ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL START TO GET GOING NEAR THE END LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE CHANCES TOWARD WED/THU OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AGAIN. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT OFK AROUND 12Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER IT STILL APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NW OF THE AREA. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD AVIATION...KG

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