Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 141122 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 522 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPS ARE STILL THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGES IN THESE PERIODS. NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. LAST EVENINGS 00Z 500 MB CHART SHOWED HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 130 METERS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ERN MT...ERN WY AND WRN SD. AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST HEIGHTS FALLS...THERE WERE SOME TSTMS WHERE LAPSE RATES WERE STEEP AND THERE WAS SOME NEGATIVE EPV IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 06Z NAM...SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME NEGATIVE EPV IN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LAYER MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON THIS AND RECENT RADAR ECHO TOPS OVER 25K FEET IN PARTS OF NERN NE... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHTNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO MID MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE AREA BUT IN GENERAL THE FORCING...INCLUDING 700 MB OMEGA AND 700-500 MB DIV Q FIELDS...SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL MOVE OFF EAST OF OUR AREA QUICKLY. THAT LEAVES US WITH WEAK DESCENDING MOTION LATER TODAY. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST CLOUDS CAN DECREASE. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS. IN GENERAL...LOWERED HIGHS JUST A BIT...EXPECTING LESS SUNSHINE TODAY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THAT FEATURE CURRENTLY LOOKS MUCH WEAKER IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOME MODEL GUIDANCE TRIES TO GENERATE ISOLD TO SCT LIGHT PCPN TONIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN...BUT WITH WET BULB EFFECTS...IT COULD BE SNOW. WILL MENTION A MIX...BUT KEEP POPS MAINLY UNDER 30 PERCENT. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND WITH INCREASING 925 MB/850 MB TEMPS FCST...WE ARE LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S. SOME UPPER 30S MAY LINGER IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA AND IT COULD REACH AROUND 50 AT THE KANSAS BORDER. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF CONCERN WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN FAIRLY WELL ADVERTISED AND MAY ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE STRONGEST OVER OUR NRN ZONES...SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS AND QPF THERE AS WELL AS IN WRN IA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR PCPN TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN...BUT AGAIN COOLING DUE TO PCPN MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MIX OR CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW. BEST SNOW CHANCES WOULD BE IN WRN IA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...BUT BREEZY/WINDY AND TEMPS PROBABLY ABOUT THE SAME OR COOLER THAN THOSE MONDAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 A WEAK WAVE DOES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY BUT OPTED TO LEAVE THE FCST DRY FOR NOW. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR GOOD WARMING...SO AGAIN KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S. IT WILL PROBABLY BE COOLEST FROM WAYNE TOWARD HARLAN WHERE IT MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 30S...AND AGAIN WARMEST NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. THURSDAY LOOKS WARMER. HOWEVER...THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN. MIXING WILL BE MUCH BETTER THOUGH AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THICKNESS VALUES RISE AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF PCPN. BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...500 MB FLOW IS FAIRLY FLAT IN OUR AREA AND BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO STAY EITHER TO OUR NORTH OR SOUTH. FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY BE OUR WARMEST DAY WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH 60S POSSIBLE SRN ZONES. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...WITH JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 519 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016 LIGHT SNOW MAY FALL DURING THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KOMA AND KOFK BUT THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR THIS AREA OF LIGHT PCPN TO MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 15Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN TO THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF THIS IN THE TAFS JUST YET. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...KERN

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