Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 161930 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 230 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 24 hour rainfall amounts in parts of the Platte River basin averaged 4 to 6 inches last night, with some unverified of 6 to 8 inch reports. This has resulted in widespread areal flooding for Butler, and portions of Colfax and Saunders counties. This will lead to river flooding through the next couple of days along the Big Blue river in southeast NE. Meanwhile, the area of low pressure and associated front that brought the excessive heavy rainfall was pushing east of the area through mid afternoon. Precip had essentially cleared the forecast area for now, with high resolution CAMs suggesting that additional strong to severe development will be well south and east of our area of concern. Although, there may still be isolated showers that could linger this evening. Thursday should be dry with northwesterly winds, breezy in the morning but diminishing by early evening. Nearly all model suites suggest that another wave and associated frontal boundary could be moving into area from the west northwest Thursday night into Friday, bringing the next chance of showers/storms. May be lingering or isolated storms south of I80 Friday afternoon/evening, which sets the stage for dry and warm weather again on Saturday. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Both the GFS and Canadian suggest that with a relatively zonal flow aloft, a weak wave moves out of the central Rockies and could bring a small chance of showers and storms into the forecast area Sunday. More importantly, the GFS and Canadian suggest that another similar upper level impulse could be moving out of the Rockies Sunday night into early Monday, which these models have been consistently showing for the last couple of days. Meanwhile, the EC remains dry Sunday night into Monday for our area, with its energy focused a little further north into the northern Plains. Thus, the local forecast will continue to carry 30-50% chance of storms during this time with more reliance on GFS/Canadian blends. Model variability 5 days out can still change quite a bit so there remains some uncertainty of the specifics of of how much cloud cover would remain for a 4 hour window late Monday morning into early Monday afternoon for the eclipse. The models do have somewhat better agreement that a frontal boundary gets pushed into the area Monday night then south of the area into Tuesday. Will continue to have Pops for this, but then it looks dry for Tuesday night into Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 An area of MVFR ceilings will persist over northeast Nebraska including OFK with scattered to broken MVFR level clouds potentially impacting OMA/LNK for a few hours this afternoon. Have included a tempo group for the most likely time period. Otherwise expect VFR conditions with winds turning out of the northwest and persistently in the 10 kt range. There is a small chance for MVFR cigs to build back into OFK late tonight but for now have kept a VFR forecast. For eclipse-area airports: Expect winds to turn out of the northwest by mid afternoon. VFR conditions will be predominant but may see 1-4 hours of bkn MVFR cigs this afternoon. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DeWald LONG TERM...DeWald AVIATION...Barjenbruch

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