Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 262324 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 524 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014 TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW NEAR NERN MO/SERN IA VICINITY AT 19Z CONTINUES EWD. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY DECREASE AS WELL...HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING SEWD ACROSS WRN ZONES UNDER A STRONG UPPER JET AND WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BOOSTED SKY COVER SOME ON THANKSGIVING. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT AS COLD/DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH...BUT IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OR ARE REPLACED QUICKER BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS THESE MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL. CLOUDS ON THANKSGIVING SHOULD REMAIN THICKEST THE LONGEST NERN SECTIONS WHICH COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH 30S EXPECTED SW AND WCNTRL ZONES WHERE AFTN SUNSHINE POSSIBLE. WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPS WARM INTO THE +14-+18 DEGREE RANGE. MIXING POSSIBLY NOT THE BEST WHICH COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY BUT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS PRETTY STRONG ON SATURDAY AND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW ECMWF HAS SUGGESTED 60S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE FA. MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WHERE COMBO OF LIGHTER WINDS MOST AREAS AND LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT WARM-UP. HOWEVER....BOOSTED READINGS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY W/SW. ALSO BASED ON MIXY NATURE OF SWRLY WINDS SWRN ZONES YDA...BOOSTED WINDS A BIT BOTH FRI BUT ESPECIALLY SAT AFTNS ACROSS SW SECTIONS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014 THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDES THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING HIGHS ON SUNDAY SOME 30-40+ DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY/S. ALTHOUGH NO MENTION WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME...FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...BUT MEASURABLE CHANCES SEEM PRETTY LOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD AND DRY AS THE SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PLAINS. MEX GUIDANCE PROBABLY INFLUENCED ERRONEOUSLY BY CLIMO AND THUS TOO WARM...AND IF TRENDS PERSIST...NUMBERS COULD NEED LOWERING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TUESDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING S ACROSS NRN U.S. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. HOWEVER...BY DAY 7 CHANGES TAKE SHAPE WITH GFS BRINGING SOME WEST COAST ENERGY/MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS WHILE ECMWF WEAKENED THE ENERGY WRINGING THE MOISTURE OUT IN THE PROCESS. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SERN ZONES AT THIS JUNCTURE. && .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 516 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014 STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING SWD WILL ALLOW FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. LATEST OBS INDICATE MVFR CIGS PRETTY MUCH PREVAILING ACROSS ERN NEB WITH NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25KT. HOWEVER...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR TO VFR ALONG WITH SUBSIDING WINDS SOMETIME TWD 03Z THIS EVENING. VFR THEN REST OF THE FCST PD.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NE...NONE. IA...NONE.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...CHERMOK LONG TERM...CHERMOK AVIATION...DEE

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