Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 281140 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 640 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(today through Saturday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016 Water vapor imagery and regional VWP this morning revealing pair of minor vort maxes...one over ern MT with the other over srn Neb. Disturbances were adding support to several areas of elevated convection from wrn Neb into the wrn Dakotas and ern MT where MUCAPES were 500-1000J/KG. And at this point,both HRRR and RAP13 indicate wrn CWA should be spared from seeing any pcpn this morning, so will maintain dry fcst. However HRRR along with the NAM12 and CMC hint that an area of convection will develop this aftn over wrn Neb with increasing areal coverage approaching the SWRN CWA early this evening then slowly expand EWD over portions of the CWA on Friday. Confidence of this actually taking place is quite low...thus will stick with small token POPs. Friday night through Saturday night...feel somewhat compelled to maintain small POPs in the fcst given series of Pac NW impulses dropping into the region...any of which could spark off a few TSRAs. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016 GFS/ECM/CMC QPF fields continue to be all over the place...making POP fcst quite problematic. However...there is some agreement a series of frontal boundaries will drop out of the north and into the CWA...one Monday night then another Wednesday night. Models indicate shear will be present to allow for possible severe storm development. However...far enough out to not be concerned with it at this time. Otherwise...increasing hgts will allow for max temps to rebound into the low/mid 90s early next week.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016 VFR conditions will continue through Friday morning. Scattered to broken mid level clouds will be the most prominent aspect of this forecast. However there is a small chance showers or thunderstorms could approach eastern Nebraska toward 06Z as a system rolls off the high plains. Expected isolated coverage and low confidence of occurrence preclude a mention in TAF at this point.
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&& .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...Dergan

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