Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 061128 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 628 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 HIRES MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING PORTIONS OF THE SRN CWA WHERE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL COME TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING LINE OF ACTIVITY STRETCHING FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO SWRN NEB ALONG AN INTENSE COLD FRONT TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. EXPECT THE SFC BNDRY TO PUSH INTO THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH GFSLAMP METEOGRAMS DEPICTING THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE OMAHA METRO SHORTLY BEFORE NOON. THIS AFTN AND EVENING...WARM/MOIST DEEP LYR AIR MASS COINCIDENT TO MAX OMEGA WILL FOUND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE PCPN EFFICIENCY WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE TO INDUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD IN NATURE AS PWS VALUES INCREASE TO 2.5" OR MORE AND CORFIDI VECTORS DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10KT. LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THOUGH SUGGEST THAT HEADLINES ARE PROBABLY NOT NEEDED. COOL...STABLE AIR MASS QUICKLY FILTERS IN THEN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAN THE CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU AT LEAST WED NIGHT...THUS WILL OPT FOR DRY FCST. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 BOTH ECM AND GFS DEPICT A GRADUAL LARGE SCALE TRANSITION TO A HIGH PRESSURE DOME ENVELOPING THE CONUS WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO NEAR NORMAL TERRITORY. PCPN CHANCES THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT REVOLVING AROUND A STALLED SFC BNDRY ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER LIFTING ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AFTN. WITH AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE DOME BUILDING IN...FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO REMOVE POPS AND GO DRY NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL...BUT COVERAGE WILL SMALL ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NORTH AT ALL SITES BY 16Z...WITH MVFR CIGS FOLLOWING FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR TO VFR VSBYS IN THE RAIN...AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS AFTER 20Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS AFTER 00Z AT ALL SITES.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...DERGAN

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