Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 030147 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 847 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 REMNANTS OF AN MCV IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THAT WILL END IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE STRONGER WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NE/SD WITH A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION. 00Z UPPER AIR DATA REVEALED NEUTRAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. AMPLE H85 MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE WITH +12 TO +14 DEWPOINTS. +12 TO +16 H70 TEMPS EXIST...AND THIS MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SOUTH OF EXISTING DEVELOPMENT. EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALSO EXIST WITH KLBF SOUNDING CONTAINING ABOUT 3800 J/KG OF CAPE. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY STILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS...AND LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...THUS WILL ADJUST ONGOING FOR A LITTLE LATER DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP...AND WE MAY SEE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR AND NORTH AND EAST...SIMILAR TO LATEST HRRR DEPICTION. SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCE OF ANY DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...AND TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. WARM...MOIST AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN THE METRO THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION ARE CLOSER TO THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND THE FRONTS. TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE PROGRESS OF A SHORTWAVE TROF AND THE AID OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF STORMS SO HAVE THIS MENTIONED...THEN TREND TO LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I80. WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING INTO WESTERN IOWA AN THE MCS SHOULD ALSO BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST . SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...SO ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY TRY TO RE-FORM...HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE THERMAL RIDGE DOES EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND IF SUNSHINE IS REALIZED...TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S. UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE HIGHS FROM 78 TO 84 DEGREES. WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES/UNSTABLE AIR (3000J/KG) IN PLACE AND THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A FRONT IN THE AREA...THE AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM 1.3 INCHES TO 1.7 INCHES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CAPABLE OF PUTTING DOWN HEAVY RAIN. THIS AFTERNOON WE WERE ADDED TO THE DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIODS. THE REAL WARM TEMPERATURES STAY TO THE SOUTH AND THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNCAPPED AND RIPE FOR CONVECTION. THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THERE APPEARS TO BE LESS COVERAGE FOR STORMS ON FRIDAY. HIGHS EACH DAY SHOULD MAINLY BE FROM 76 TO 82. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH MORE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. FINALLY THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HOWEVER STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOUTHEAST GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...BUT GUSTS DIMINISH BY 02-04Z. THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND COULD AFFECT KOFK 07-10Z. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KOFK AFTER THE RAIN. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AT KLNK/KOMA 10-14Z. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON 19-24Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DEWALD SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...DEWALD

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