Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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691 FXUS63 KOAX 190810 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 310 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Conditions look to be more summer-like for the area leading up to the first day of fall on Friday. A very warm and moist airmass will be in place across the lower Missouri Valley today in advance of a cold front pushing into the northern and central plains. Strong instability will be in place this afternoon and early this evening from eastern Kansas into eastern South Dakota where dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s are expected. Forecast soundings suggest a capping inversion will be in place from eastern Nebraska into Kansas and limit the potential for thunderstorms over the forecast area. Better upper support will exist to the north across the Dakotas as a strong short wave lifts into the northern plains with the majority of convection expected there. SPC currently has the higher risk of severe weather in the northern plains for this afternoon and evening with a marginal risk touching the northeast Nebraska border. Low PoPs are in place for the extreme northern part of the forecast area for late afternoon into tonight as this system works its way east into Minnesota and Iowa. A bit cooler temperatures will be over the area on Wednesday behind the front with the better instability shunted to the east and south ahead of the front. The front however is expected to stall by Wednesday night from eastern Iowa into northeast Kansas with a chance of storms in the vicinity of the front. Extreme southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa will be close enough to the stalled front for some low PoPs to be included for that time frame. The unseasonable heat and humidity returns on Thursday as the stalled front lifts north as a warm front with strong south winds also developing over the region. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 By the beginning of the long term the pattern will be dominated by high pressure over the eastern part of the country and a deep trough over the west with the forecast area stuck between the two features. This pattern then basically remains in place through the weekend before finally shifting slowly east Sunday night and Monday. This pattern will result in some forecast challenges as it splits the area with some chance of rain mentioned from late Friday into Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Patchy fog may become dense over portions of the area this morning. Model guidance continues to point at LIFR visibilities at KOFK but keeping KOMA and KLNK in IFR to MVFR range. In any case, will likely need amendments throughout the night for any changes in this forecast. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected throughout Tuesday daylight hours. Did mention LLWS after 03z Wed as veered nocturnal low-level jet increases. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fobert LONG TERM...Fobert AVIATION...Kern

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