Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 311110 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 610 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014 THE PATTERN WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE IN THE SHORT TERM OF THE FORECAST OVER WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE LARGE- SCALE PATTERN OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE PERIOD...BUT A NUMBER OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS IN THE SHORT TERM LEADING TO AT LEAST SOME CHC OF PRECIP. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING INDICATED SOME WEAK RETURNS OVER ERN SD ASSOCIATED AN AREA OF WAA ON THE NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET THAT EXTNDD FM NW NEB INTO SRN SD. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONT TO WANT TO TRY AND MOVE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SWD IN NE NEB THIS MORNING AND ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE LACKING THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT AS FAR S AS HIGHWAY 92 THRU THE MRNG BUT AS THE LOW- LEVEL JET WEAKENS...AND THE ACTIVITY CONTS TO MOV S OF THE WEAKER STATIC STABILITY IT SHOULD DIMINISH. EARLY MRNG WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDC A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE BORDER INTO ND. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF DPVA/HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE SEWD TODAY ACROSS ERN SD AND INTO IA TONIGHT ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC REFLECTION OF A LOW OVER CNTRL NEB AND FRNT EXTNG EWD. MOISTURE WILL CONT TO BE LIMITED AND THE STABILITY IS RELATIVELY HIGH...BUT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISO/SCT SHRA REDEVELOPING THIS AFTN IN NEB AND TRYING TO TRACK SEWD THRU THE ENVG. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH THRU THE EVNG THOUGH WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE INTO SE NEB/SW IA TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AS WELL. ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MORE LIMITED DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WE CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER DEVELOPING NEAR THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY BUT FELT PROBABILITIES WERE NOT HIGH ENOUGH CURRENTLY TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST YET. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014 ON SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL NEB WITH A FOCUSED AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHRA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO SUN MRNG OVER CNTRL NEB THAT COULD CLIP A PART OF OUR NE NEB AREA...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE WE LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE THE CWA SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK AS SOME LARGER-SCALE CHANGES START TO TAKE SHAPE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TEND TO FILL SOME THIS WEEK AND THE RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL US WILL FLATTEN AND ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER MOISTURE /BOTH FROM THE GULF AND MONSOONAL/ TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TOWARD MIDWEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A DECENT SHOT OF SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY THOUGH THE TIMING OF ANY FRONT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE. WE WILL CONT WITH THE MID CHC POPS FOR THE TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD FOR A START. OTHERWISE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD AVIATION...DEE

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