Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 261148 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 648 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...(today through Sunday) Issued at 337 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016 A couple of shortwave troughs will impact the area over the next 24 hours. The 00Z upper air analysis indicated that these were located over southern NM and southern UT. Broad low to mid tropospheric warm-air advection ahead of these systems this morning, over a stalled frontal boundary in the southern Plains, was leading to a band of showers and thunderstorms from OK into KS. Short term models are in good agreement that this area of activity will continue to lift to the north this morning as the 850 mb warm front moves into the southern CWA. We will likely see a decrease in this activity by late morning though as the low- level jet begins to weaken and back with time. The break in precipitation will likely be short-lived however as forcing for ascent associated with the NM shortwave trough moves into the central Plains and we see destabilization over eastern KS into northern MO. This may lead to additional scattered showers and thunderstorms that may clip southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa into the evening hours. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop from western Nebraska into western KS associated with the UT shortwave. We may see some this activity move into the CWA toward the late evening, or additional showers and thunderstorms develop ahead of this activity in the area as the main forcing moves through. Most if not all the precipitation should be over by Saturday morning, but confidence in the forecast through the weekend is low as models diverge. Although there appears to be a lack of significant weather systems to affect the region, we will have a moist and potentially unstable airmass over the region that will not be strongly capped. Thus there is some potential for isolated afternoon pop up showers, or some nocturnal activity associated with the low-level jet. We have removed pops from Saturday as we feel that after the rain moves east tonight that any redevelopment on Saturday would be east or south of our area, but we did leave some pops in for Sunday. Today should be the coolest day of the next 3 with a good deal of clouds around, and potentially some morning precip in the south. We should see a warming trend into the lower 80s for Saturday and mid and upper 80s for Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 337 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Longer range models are fairly consistent in the next front, although weak, will work toward the area on Monday associated with a weak upper level system moving through the northern Plains. We will continue to include some rain chances with this front, but then the theme through the rest of the extended should be increasing heights and warmer temperatures. Most models agree that we should see 500 mb heights above 590 dm and this will likely lead to highs in the mid and upper 80s through the period with limited chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.) Issued at 628 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Main issue is deteriorating conditions later this evening. Pcpn chances will increase in response to an upper level disturbance moving out of CO and into Neb early this evening. Sct TSRA is expected then to push into ern Neb from the west toward midnight...then shift into wrn IA early Saturday morning with MVFR/IFR conditions prevailing.
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&& .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ AVIATION...DEE

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