Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 301116 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 616 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014 LOW CLOUDS TODAY AND TSTM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL) ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. TROUGH AXIS HAD FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH MAIN AREA OF PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SERN MN ACROSS ERN IA AND DOWN INTO MO. A 70 KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB WAS NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER AT 00Z...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 50 METERS WERE NOTED OVER SRN BC CANADA AND WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDED DOWN INTO NRN CA/WRN NV. OUR AREA WILL BE MUCH DRIER TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TO OUR EAST AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER ERN SD AND WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOWED THESE OVER THE NRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS TREND...THEN LET THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT THIS AFTN. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND WAS IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF MOS...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO 85. TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED OVER THE WRN PARTS OF NERN NE LATE. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA COULD ALSO SEE SOME TSTMS BY DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. THESE WOULD THEN LIKELY DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME THE REST OF THE DAY. THE MAIN SHOW WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND BE MORE TIED TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 OTLK WHICH HAS ALL OF OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK. ML CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS IN COMBINATION WITH EXPECTED CAPE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND/OR A LINE. 21Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY SEEMS TO BE THE MOST FAVORED TIME BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OTHER CURRENT MODEL DATA. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE RECENT ISSUES WITH SOME STREAMS/RIVERS. STORMS COULD LINGER TOWARD 12Z MONDAY NEAR THE MO BORDER BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014 MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH DETAILS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB TUESDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK. DID NOT FAVOR ANY ONE MODEL IN THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS WETTER MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS WAS WETTER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY IN SERN NE/SWRN IA. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE SRN ZONES THURSDAY. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SEEMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. && .AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014 REGIONAL OBS/IR SATL INDICATING BATCH OF LLVL CIGS SITUATED OVER ERN SD WAS GRADUALLY DRIFTING SWD INTO ERN NEB THIS MORNING. GIVEN MOVEMENT TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...APPEARS THAT BRIEF PD OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS MORNING AT KOFK/KOMA WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. FOR KLNK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THERE.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...DEE

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