Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 221712 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1212 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 The primary forecast concerns in this period are heat headlines today and thunderstorm chances today into tonight. 500 mb ridge to our south has weakened a bit and should continue to do that today. Shortwave trough over southern parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (with 12 hour height falls of about 40 meters) extended down into parts of the northern plains and should continue to move east/southeast today. Water vapor satellite loop showed strongest flow and organized storms to our north/northeast, but there was somewhat of a monsoonal moisture connection back down into the Four Corners region. Very weak cold front continued to push south across the area and should be down into KS and MO this afternoon. RAP, HRRR and experimental HRRR all suggest some storms possible this morning near that front across parts of southeast NE and southwest IA. Models also suggest some low potential spreading into the area from the west this afternoon, which will linger into the evening. Forecast soundings indicate this will be fairly high based, with some drier air below cloud base, suggesting potential for gusty winds. Temperatures today should be a bit cooler most areas, but still lots of 90s. We still look for heat index values above 100, mainly for southern parts of the forecast area today. Will make a few minor adjustments to counties included based on most recent guidance and expected heat indices. Chance of storms after early evening should be confined to near the KS border as storms that develop this afternoon try to move east. Otherwise the period from Sunday through Monday looks mainly dry. Temperatures Sunday and Monday should top out mainly in the upper 80s and lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 Some low and spotty thunderstorm chances will return for parts of the area from Monday night through Wednesday morning. At the start of this period, a mid tropospheric ridge is expected to stretch from TX into NM and CO, with a closed low up over Saskatchewan. Brunt of forcing for upward vertical motion will occur with that feature as it tracks east across Canada, but is should help push a cold front down through our area Tuesday night into Wednesday. By Wednesday night, the boundary should be to our south and we could get some storms with lift up and over the front. Right now it appears chances would decrease Thursday with dry conditions returning for Friday and Saturday. Temperatures should top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s from Tuesday into Wednesday, then be slightly cooler for later in the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 Low clouds and some patchy fog were slow to burn off this morning but VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF cycle. Northwest surface winds will become light and variable through the overnight hours as a weak are of high pressure moves overhead. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ045-052-053- 065>068-078-088>090. Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ091>093. IA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ055-056-069-079. Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ080- 090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...Miller LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...Kern is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.