Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 221735 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1235 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014 EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A CUTT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WX IS EXPECTED FOR THE CWA TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR MOISTURE RETURN TO OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS ON A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET OF 30-40 KT. THE COMBINATION OF THIS WARM-AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN AND THEN CNTRL NEB OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT A FAIRLY SHARP EASTERN EDGE TO THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIR REMAINING OVER WRN IA AND SE NEB AS WELL AS A BIT SLOWER EWD PROGRESS TO THE BAND THAN OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN NEB WHEN THE STRONGEST DPVA IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DOWN-TREND IN PRECIP TUE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. WE MAY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF ISO/SCT TSRA LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS BETTER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE MOISTURE AXIS CREATING MARGINAL SBCAPE VALUES IN A WEAKLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY WITHIN THE MOISTURE AXIS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND ONGOING PRECIP WE HAVE LOWERED GOING HIGHS ON TUES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST NEB BUT WE STILL MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014 THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY QUIET. AS THE CUTT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE SHORT TERM WEAKENS AND FILLS...THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS CREATING A TEMPORARY REX BLOCK OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FA AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK TO BREAK DOWN UNTIL JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014 VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THICKENING CLOUDS. SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE KOFK BY ABOUT 09-12ZZ...KLNK BY ABOUT 12-15Z...AND KOMA BY 15-18Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD AVIATION...DEWALD

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