Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 161728 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1128 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SHORT TERM...(today through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 Icing conditions continue across the area this morning with radar and surface observations showing generally light amounts since last evening. Pockets of higher returns were embedded in the lighter areas with larger pocket moving into northeast Nebraska between KOLU and KBVN at 08Z. An expanding area of precip over Kansas was also lifting north toward the Nebraska border. Latest RAP model brings greatest QPF into southeast portion of the forecast area between 12Z-18Z as surface low and upper closed low move into eastern Kansas. Temperatures are expected to climb above freezing in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa by late morning into the early afternoon which should limit ice accumulations in those areas during that time. Precip begins to then diminish by mid afternoon into the evening as system moves east of the area with a baroclinic band setting up across northeast Nebraska. Still not much cold air available for this system with snowfall expected to be quite limited on the backside through the evening as it tracks rapidly towards the lower Great Lakes region. Most of the precip should be east of the area by 06Z with trailing upper trough helping to kick mid level moisture eastward through 12Z. Warming trend begins for the area on Tuesday with well above normal temperatures by Wednesday for a welcomed January thaw. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 Progressive amplified westerly flow looks to continue through the extended period. The warming trend for the area continues through the remainder of the work week and into the weekend although the chance of more precipitation returns by late Friday and over the weekend as a series of upper level waves roll through the region. Temperatures are expected to be warm enough for mainly rain during the day periods with periods of freezing rain possible at night in some locations as lows drop to just below freezing. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1127 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 Mosaic radar data as of 1715z indicate the primary deformation axis of the mature synoptic cyclone from central IA to n-cntrl KS. This feature will continue to pivot northeast this afternoon with freezing rain eventually mixing with sleet and snow before changing over all light snow at KOFK by late afternoon. At KOMA and KLNK, more continuous rain will transition to rain showers or drizzle as the deformation axis shifts north. IFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through 17/06z, before ceilings and visibilities begin to improve from west to east across the area late tonight into Tuesday morning. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Ice Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Tuesday for NEZ015-032>034- 042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. Winter Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Tuesday for NEZ011-012- 016>018-030-031. IA...Ice Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Tuesday for IAZ043-055-056-069- 079-080-090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fobert LONG TERM...Fobert AVIATION...Mead

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