Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 241707 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1207 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(today through Tuesday) Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016 Regional obs this morning showing no lack of llvl moisture with sfc dew points in the low/mid 70s spread across the CWA just ahead of the leading edge of a cold front currently extending from about swrn MN to wrn KS. This bndry is progged to continue pushing swd this morning as associated vort max treks ewd along the U.S./Can border. The bndry this then progged to stall out along the NE/KS border then later today and remain in the vicinity of the srn CWA well into tonight. Expect TSRA development late this aftn/early evening along and south of I-80 where hefty moisture//PWS 2"//phases well with max omega and MUCAPE 2000J/KG. By Monday then...sfc high pressure building in from the north will shove the bndry farther to the south. Low level moisture return begins in earnest Monday night advecting up along the high plains with TSRA development mainly over the wrn SD within waa regime with upper level support implied via Qvect convg. Models are in general agreement brunt of TSRA activity will remain just north of the CWA on Tuesday where low level theta-e advection will be most prevalent thru the day. However...mid lyr QG forcing in combination with passing upper shortwave will help induce TSRA Tuesday night. And with a moisture rich environment in place...the potential for locally heavy rainfall will increase...particularly over the nrn CWA. Overnight svr threat cannot be totally discounted either as it appears that adequate effective shear will be place as well. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016 Both the ECM and GFS indicate the large scale flow transitioning from near-zonal to a low amplitude upper ridge becoming situated over the wrn conus with a downstream trof east. Several minor impulses are progged to ridge down the front end of the upper ridge and cross thru the region which could aid in initiating TSRA within the extended pds. Thus low end pops seem to be the best fit given low confidence of timing/placement of activity. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016 Current water vapor imagery indicates a couple of mid-level impulses which have contributed to increasing mid and high-level cloudiness across the region today. One feature was tracking east-northeast along the Nebraska-Kansas border southwest of KLNK, and the other was lifting northeast through north-central Nebraska and south-central South Dakota. Both disturbances are producing showery precipitation, which will likely remain to the south of KLNK and to the north of KOFK. Some FL070-080 ceilings have been observed over south-central into southeast Nebraska, though prevailing FL100-130 ceilings will be most probable at KLNK this afternoon before clouds begin to diminish later this evening. At KOMA and KOFK, brief periods of ceilings generally above FL140 will exist this afternoon.
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&& .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...Mead

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