Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 270456 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1156 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015 CHANCE OF TSRA/COVERAGE/PCPN AMOUNTS MAINLY FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES. HIGH BASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WERE ENOUGH TO GENERATE -SHRA/-TSRA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THESE SHOULD GENERALLY END BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURED WINDS FROM 40-80 KNOTS AT 300 MB EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS...THEN CURVING DOWN TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. 500 MB PATTERN WAS SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE BORDER OF CO/NM/TX/OK/KS. ENERGY WAS ROTATING UP AROUND THAT RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURGE IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW THAT WE WERE WATCHING YESTERDAY WAS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTN...AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN/THURSDAY NIGHT. TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER SD WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE AREA. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AROUND 315K AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BRING SOME ISOLD/SCT SHRA AND TSRA FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT ZERO BUT IS ON THE LOWER END OF THE SPECTRUM. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS NOT OVERLY HIGH BASED ON EXPECTED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THURSDAY AFTN EITHER...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING HIGHER CAPE VALUES THAN OTHER MODELS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD END UP BEING MORE OF AN ISSUE THAN THE SEVERE THREAT. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1.50 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM NERN NE INTO WRN IA. PCPN MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH...BUT AMOUNTS WOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT. KEPT SOME LOW POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE SERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015 THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. PATTERN AT 500 MB BY 00Z SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION UP INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THAT RIDGE WILL PUSH SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. DID GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015 ACTIVE WX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO ERN NEB LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. A LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD BY EARLY THIS AFTN OVER CNTRL NEB HEN PUSH INTO ERN NEB TWD LATE AFTN THEN STALL OUT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF EVENTUAL AREAL COVERAGE AT THAT TIME...WILL RELY ON PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...DEE

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