Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 180515 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1115 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014 RADAR ECHOES CONTINUE TO LIFT TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. EARLIER...INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. MADE ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014 MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAD 50-70 METER 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR FROM 925 TO 700 MB WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME FIRST...EVENTUALLY SATURATING ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER REGION BY MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD I80 BY 6AM THURSDAY. HRRR/RAP/SREF ARE ALSO INDICATING THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE LOW LEVEL SATURATION ALREADY EXISTS...SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT LESS THAN 10 MPH FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENT. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO. SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...AGAIN WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80. AS WE LOSE ICE CRYSTAL SATURATION AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS...THUS THE PRECIP COULD END AS AN HOUR OR TWO OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. ALL MEASURABLE PRECIP ENDS BY NOON BUT CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CLOUDY AS LOW LEVEL 925 MB MOISTURE REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF PATCHY DRIZZLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTING IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS TREND COULD EVEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DOES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY BUT ALL MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014 ANOTHER WEAK SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE IS MEAGER AND PRECIP CHANCES MAY INCREASE JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. A CLIPPER MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHWEST/SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF IT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST A RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE COULD RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014 STILL LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE IN PCPN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR BUT CHANCES STILL SEEMED LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS. THAT MAY CHANGE LATER...AND WILL AMEND IF NEEDED. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY HOLD THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MILLER SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...MILLER

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