Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 011142 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 642 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014 MAIN FOCUS IN THE FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL RAIN EVENTS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TEMPERATURES AS COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING INTO EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT TRAINING OF CELLS IN THAT AREA HAD RESULTED IN ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ON THE EVENING SHIFT. RECENT TREND ON RADAR HAS BEEN TOWARD DIMINISHING AREA OF MORE INTENSE CELLS IN THE LINCOLN AREA WITH A GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO THE NORTHEAST. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z WITH AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL IOWA AS UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z. PLAN TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIOR TO ZONE PACKAGE ISSUANCE. SURFACE FRONT INDICATED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THAT TIME. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK SHOWS SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK BUT OTHER THAN THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LIMITED FORCING INDICATED UNTIL TONIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE PERIOD 18Z-06Z THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z AS THE NEXT STRONG WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. POPS THEN REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE INTO THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTED BY DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE WEATHER WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PULL SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR A TASTE OF FALL- LIKE WEATHER. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014 COLDER AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME FROST POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TYPICAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014 MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 15Z. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 18Z AT ALL SITES. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES IN KOFK. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL TURN LIGHT SOUTH WIND TO NORTHERLY...AND COULD SPARK THUNDERSTORMS AT KOMA AND KLNK BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS WILL BE APPROACHING TAF SITES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...DERGAN

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