Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 230801 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 301 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 SPOTTY SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SINCE MIDNIGHT IN AREA OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION DEPICTED BY MODELS AND IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH. INSTABILITY RATHER LIMITED THIS MORNING SO EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THUNDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WORKING EAST INTO IOWA THROUGH THE MORNING. MORE EXTENSIVE CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. A PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...AN AXIS OF HIGH PW WILL BE IN PLACE FROM TEXAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WITH LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM MID MORNING TO MIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR THURSDAY AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. WEAKER SURFACE PATTERN SETTLES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH REGION BETWEEN TROUGHS OVER THE EAST COAST AND WEST COAST. WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 THE WEST COAST TROUGH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO 00Z RUNS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS IN LINGERING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION DURING THIS TIME.
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&& .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 SFC PRES GRADIENT HAS RELAXED ACROSS ERN NEB...BUT LLWS WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE THRU ABOUT 12Z WED MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AREA OF -TSRA ACTIVITY CURRENTLY WEST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE THRU ERN NEB LATER THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR OCCASIONAL -TSRA/MVFR COND. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS ERN NEB TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30KT. FOCUS SHIFTS TO WED EVENING THEN WHEN NEXT ROUND OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH TEMPO GROUPS THAT FAR OUT GIVEN MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT ADVERTISING THIS STORM SYSTEM. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078- 088-089. IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...DEE

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