Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 032333 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 633 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A QUITE NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALL THIS IN PART TO NW FLOW ALOFT BRINGING A CANADIAN AIR MASS INTO THE LOWER 48 WITH THE BRUNT OF CAA DROPPING DOWN THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PCPN CHANCES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS REVOLVING AROUND SFC BNDRY MOVEMENT OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS WITH SERIES OF VORT MAXES LENDING SUPPORT. POP FCST THIS FCST ISSUANCE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT GIVEN VARIANCE QPF FIELD AMONGST MODELS IN REGARDS TO EVENTUAL AMOUNTS/PLACEMENT OF PCPN. THE NAM12/GFS20 BOTH FAVORING TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF ACCUM...ONE OVER ERN SD AND THE OTHER OVER ERN KS/MO. ON THE OTHER HAND...ECM/CMC BOTH LAY BULK OF PCPN MAINLY OVER ERN KS INTO MO. NOTE...THE ECM IS SHOWING A SECONDARY AXIS OF APPRECIABLE ACCUM OCCURRING OVER CNTRL NEB. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT PLACING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF OVER MT/WY AT 06Z LATER TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT/DPVA INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. PCPN PROGGED TO BREAK OUT THEN ALONG WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY AXIS FROM ABOUT WRN SD TO NRN MO. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MOISTURE RICH WITH PWS VALUES AROUND 1.5". GIVEN SLOW NATURE OF LIFTING BNDRY COUPLED WITH STRONG 325K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR HVY RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY OVER THE NRN CWA. ON TUES MODELS PROG SECOND AREA OF PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER KS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT. TUES NIGHT/WED PCPN PROGGED TO EXPAND NWD AND ENCROACH THE CWA. NEXT ROUND OF PCPN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WILL A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 MODELS PERSIST SHOWING A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE PREVAILING ACROSS THE CONUS. PCPN CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED PDS INVOLVE A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT/MOIST 315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AFTN HIGHS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 06Z TO 12Z AT KOFK AND KLNK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...FOBERT

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