Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 072156 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 356 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(tonight through Saturday) Issued at 345 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016 Forecast concerns this package will be how far south the clouds/flurries will make it later tonight from the Dakotas and Thursday along with temperatures and wind chills. Attention then turns to potential for flurries Friday and the development of a shortwave in the zonal flow Saturday/chance for light snow and flurries. Much colder temperatures for today with temperatures in the upper teens to mid 20s at 3pm and gusty northwest winds resulting in wind chill values in the single digits and teens. The area of snow over south central Nebraska had dropped south into Kansas with decreasing clouds. Although cold surface high pressure is building in, a 30 to 35kt wind at h925 and push of cold air will keep surface winds around 10 to 20kt sustained and gusty through Thursday. h85 temps are around -13deg C. this afternoon and are forecast to stay that cold overnight dropping to around -15 deg. by Thursday evening. Surface temperatures tonight drop into the single digits and lower teens. Wind chills do not hit advisory criteria, so no advisory needed, however lower to 0 to 15 below zero. With most of the snowcover melted and a cold start Thursday, highs should top out in the teens to mid 20s. Ridging over the Rockies Friday results in warm advection across the forecast area aloft with a strengthening 35kt low level jet. This waa combined with forecast soundings showing saturation from top down through the dendritic growth zone could result in some flurries or light snow. The EC does have some light QPF near the SD/Neb border and added flurries to the forecast for Friday along with the thickening clouds. Stronger upper level forcing is forecast for Saturday with a swath of 2 to 4 inches snow across the Dakotas into MN is expected. Right now, northeast Neb is on the southern fringe of the accumulating snow and include some amounts around an inch Saturday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 345 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016 ...The extended remains unsettled with a prolonged period of below normal temperatures... The storm system will be exiting the area Saturday night, however do have some lingering light snow mention along and east of the Missouri River. The EC has a trailing shortwave for Sunday which the GFS does not, so will need to assess this. Once again, a cold push of air builds in behind these weather systems, however, the main brunt of the cold air will be east of the forecast area. The unsettled weather continues into next week, however the location and timing details are a bit out of sync depending on which model is being looked at. High mainly in the teens and 20s with this cold pattern.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1202 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016 VFR conditions are forecast through the period at KOFK, KOMA,and KLNK. Cloud ceilings are expected to improve to SCT100 to SCT150 across eastern Nebraska. Cloud ceilings are expected to lower again by 08/12Z at KOFK as weak upper level disturbance moves across Northeastern Nebraska. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Zapotocny LONG TERM...Zapotocny AVIATION...Smith

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