Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 292051 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 351 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016 The main concerns in the short term will be location of spotty thunderstorms and temperatures...then more organized thunderstorms with the frontal passage Monday night. On this morning`s OAX sounding we did have some sprinkles around with some moisture around 10K ft and 0.92 PWAT. The latest visible satellite imagery shows and area of cumulus to the northeast and a few thunderstorms over northern Iowa. These are associated with a departing weak shortwave trough on the backside of the stronger h5 trough over the Great Lakes. Additional thunderstorms were developing over southwest Nebraska and parts of Kansas. This is tied to some deeper moisture...a weak shortwave...surface heating...and frontal boundaries in the area. Over the Carolinas of note was tropical depression Bonnie. Tonight...some mid level ridging is forecast...however a shortwave trough is forecast to move into western Kansas this evening and parts of the central Plains by 12z. Each model tends to key in on a slightly different locations for where spotty storms may develop in our area. The best chance for storms will be over Kansas and possible into southwest parts of the forecast area...and then tend to weaken. By midnight...the HiRes ARW/NMM hint there could be storms in northeast Nebraska into the early morning hours. Will keep isolated pops going and include chance pops for these other slightly more favored areas. Memorial Day looks warm and muggy with most highs 78 to 85 and highest dewpoints in the 60s. The shortwave trough tracking across the Northern Rockies is forecast to close off inducing surface low pressure to develop over parts of South Dakota and western Nebraska with a cold front in the western part of Nebraska. h85 moisture increases and with heating...kept low pops for storms in for the morning with thunderstorms chances increasing during the afternoon ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm chances increase Monday night with thunderstorms likely ahead of and along the cold front. Some locally heavy rain will be possible with 1.25 to 1.5 inches of PWAT pooling ahead of the front. The slight risk for severe storms is generally west of the area for Day 1 and Day 2...however may include parts of the area with the cold front. Temperatures for Tuesday will be cooler...in the 70s. Showers and thunderstorm should generally move out of the northwest part of the forecast area during the morning...lingering...and re-firing Tuesday afternoon with the front. Cooler...drier air pushes in behind the front for Tuesday night and Wednesday. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016 A subtle shortwave may affect the area thursday night and another weather shortwave passage Friday night. Each one of these could bring some isolated showers and thunderstorms with them. The northwest pattern aloft is drier than we have been. Highs should be in the 70s and 80s.
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&& .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 18Z Monday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Isolated thunderstorms are possible after 06z as short wave energy begins to approach from the west but expect activity to remain rather spotty until more organized and better forcing arrives later on Monday beyond the end of the period. && .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Zapotocny LONG TERM...Zapotocny AVIATION...Fobert

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