Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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209 FXUS63 KOAX 241154 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 654 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(today through Monday) Issued at 259 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 Precipitation chances will be increasing through the day with strong and possibly severe storms affecting the area later this afternoon through early evening. An accas field noted on recent 11-3.9u satellite imagery was moving through the forecast area, with radar now picking up a few very small but potent showers in northwest/southeast oriented band. Most recent HRRR model runs picked up on this well, with best forcing continuing to lift northward through the forecast area before 12z. Meanwhile, the eastward advancing north/south band of thundershowers across central NE and western KS oriented ahead of an advancing cold front should make progress eastward into at least eastern NE 12-15z, although these should not be particularly strong. By mid morning, we may also see new development in the warm sector across eastern KS, which may move into our southern forecast area south of I80 15-18z. Beyond then, thunderstorms should become more numerous through the remainder of the afternoon as instability builds, eventually reaching 2000-2500 J/kg as surface dewpoints peak near or in the lower 70s. Bulk shear of 30-35 knots and more unidirectional hodographs should support multicells, with at least a marginal risk of severe storms. NSSL WRF 4km model suggests hail in some of the strong storms could reach 1-1.5", which may be a bit greater probability than latest Day outlook from SPC. PW values also increase to around 2" during the afternoon and early evening...which is 2-3 standard deviations above normal. Thus locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Storms should be progressive, but some areas could see 1-1.5" before all precip comes to and by daybreak Sunday. Much cooler and drier weather for Sunday and Monday. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 259 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 Dry weather through Thursday as upper ridge builds across the Plains. Temps do warm back into the mid to upper 70s during this time. Rain chances increase by Thursday night and Friday as the next upper wave moves out of the central Rockies, although timing is off between the models with GFS about a day faster than the ECWMF. && .AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.) Issued at 642 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 An upper level storm system over Wyoming will track toward Canada through tonight with a warm...moist...and unstable airmass ahead of the cold front. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today. Generally vfr conditions...however mvfr conditions will be possible with heavier precipitation. Rain chances will decrease at KOFK after 21z and KOMA and KLNK after 03z.
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&& .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DeWald LONG TERM...DeWald AVIATION...Zapotocny

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