Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 280455 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1155 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 749 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016 Upped precip chances overnight. Storms have been very efficient rainfall makers, and have already issued one flash flood warning. Will do a quick assessment for training of storms, and may have to issue a flash flood watch for some counties in southeast NE where heavy rains fell last night. && .SHORT TERM...(tonight through Monday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016 Periods of showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through at least Saturday as upper level system works its way across the region toward the upper midwest. Area looks to be on the edge of better instability to the south and east from Kansas into Missouri this afternoon with a weak surface boundary from northeast Kansas into south central Iowa. Some convection already showing up on radar in this area at 19Z with an increase in coverage expected through late afternoon with activity spreading northeast tonight as the upper trough begins to lift toward eastern Nebraska. Not planning on any headline for flood issues at this time with progressive northward movement expected this afternoon and evening with storms and better moisture transport indicated east of the area. Should then see a break in the wet weather for a time Saturday night into Sunday on the back side of the trough before the next system approaches from the northern Rockies on Monday with the potential for another round of storms. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016 Northern stream energy becomes the main feature in the extended period with main uncertainty regarding southward extent of a cold front that moves into the region wednesday night and thursday. Models differ in handling this upper system with GFS closing off an upper low over Kansas on Thursday while ECMWF continues with an open and progressive trough that drives the surface front well south and east of the area. Have kept small pops in through the period for now but later adjustments possible depending on model trends. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 06Z Sunday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to make their way out of the region early on in the TAF period. Expect just a few spotty showers possible at KLNK before visibilities reduce early Saturday morning. Precipitation should also be quick to exit KOMA...however showers and reduced visibilities may linger at KOFK through the early morning hours. Otherwise winds will become westerly with VFR conditions expected by Saturday afternoon.
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&& .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...DeWald SHORT TERM...Fobert LONG TERM...Fobert AVIATION...KG

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