Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 211725 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1225 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014 TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD AND TIMING OF SYSTEM COMING INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS DURING THIS PERIOD. DID CHANGE TO A FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NAM...GFS AND EURO ALL SHOWING A SIMILAR SOLUTION IN PLACING PRECIP AXIS INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY 12Z THU. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THE PERIOD. LITTLE COOLING COMING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY BACK INTO THE REGION. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014 EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH UPPER RIDGE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THE WEEKEND AND DRY WEATHER. ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH UPPER TROUGH COMING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...APPEARS SOME LOW POPS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO SHOULD TREND COOLER AFTER SUNDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE AREA. && .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014 CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HAVE KEPT CIGS GENERALLY AT VFR BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE...BUT EXPECT STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PRECLUDE LOWER VSBYS. CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE TOWARD THE LATTER TAF HOURS WITH BETTER CHCS FOR PCPN JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...FAY

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