Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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145 FXUS63 KOAX 211238 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 738 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 Heat headlines and storm chances are the main forecast concerns in the short term. Main jetstream at 300 mb extended northeast from northern CA to north of the ND and Canada border then east/southeast across the Great Lakes region. Ridge at 500 mb was over KS and OK eastward into MO and AR. Hottest temperatures at 700 mb were to our west over WY and CO. The 500 mb ridge is expected to build eastward a bit today as the shortwave trough over British Columbia tracks eastward. The problem is that south/southwest low level winds should affect much of the forecast area today, pushing temperatures to the mid or upper 90s and possibly over 100. This may not be quite as favorable for the recent high dewpoints though. One exception to this could be across northeast NE. Some shower and T-Storms that developed early this morning could linger a bit past sunrise, and there could also be some late afternoon storms there as well. Will leave current heat headlines as is and let the day shift look to see if any changes may be needed. Weak cold front should continue to sag southward tonight, and some storms possible mainly along or north of that boundary. Lows tonight across much of the area should drop to the lower or mid 70s (but might stay in the mid or upper 70s southern quarter). North or northeast winds on Saturday should allow for some cooler air to filter in, with highs mostly 90 to 95. There is some question whether or not the cooler and drier air will work down across all of southeast NE, but for now will not extend the heat headline for Saturday. Will keep some low thunderstorm chances for Saturday afternoon into Saturday night for the far southern parts of the forecast area, but left most areas dry. Sunday may be a few degrees cooler than Saturday, and currently expect highs in the upper 80s or lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 At the start of this period, a 500 mb ridge will be over the central and southern Rockies, with our area in weak northwest mid level flow. That ridge is expected to build east through mid week, allowing our temperatures to increase a bit, but then cool later in the week as heights decrease. Sunday night through Tuesday looks mainly dry, but then there will be some low thunderstorm chances Wednesday into Friday. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 715 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 Isolated thunderstorms early in the TAF period at KOFK this morning, then a chance for scattered storms re-developing later this afternoon and tonight especially at KOFK and possibly spreading southward toward KOMA and KLNK. MVFR conditions along with gusty winds are possible with the storms and have highest confidence at KOFK. It is uncertain how far south the storms will push given the hot air in place along and south of I80. Southwest winds 10 to 20kts and gusty especially at KOMA and KLNK. KOFK is closer to the front, so the winds should not be as strong.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ034- 044-045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ015-018-030>033- 042-043. Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-016-017. IA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ055- 056-069-079-080-090-091. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043. && $$ SHORT TERM...Miller LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...Zapotocny

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