Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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438 FXUS63 KOAX 290814 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 314 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Friday) Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Prolonged rain event now underway across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa this morning. Strong northward moisture transport was in place across eastern Kansas and western Missouri at 07z with models maintaining this trend through the day as moisture area broadens and axis shifts eastward into Missouri. Southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa still appear to have best chance to receive the most significant rainfall today as the main weather system over the southern Rockies tracks into south central Kansas by late afternoon. Although rain will gradually diminish tonight into Thursday as the main moisture axis shifts east ahead of the slow moving system, light to moderate rain is expected to continue as isentropic lift remains over much of the forecast area through tonight. System continues its slow track east on Thursday reaching central Missouri by late Thursday afternoon. Lingering showers are likely for much of the day Thursday especially in the east before ending Thursday evening as the system moves further off to the east. Clouds may decrease enough on Friday for at least a peek of sunshine but the next system will be moving into the southern Rockies Friday afternoon poised to bring another round of rain to the area for the weekend. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 As mentioned above, another strong upper trough will move into the southern Rockies and then the southern plains Friday night into Sunday bringing another chance of rain to the area for the weekend. Main difference this time is that models are similar in taking this system further south with the more persistent rainfall also dropping south so some chance of sun by late Sunday afternoon. Dry conditions then for Monday but some chance of rain again by Tuesday as next trough moves into the region.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 RA is spread into the TAF sites late this evening. This trend is expected to continue into the overnight hours with intensity increasing late tonight and into Wednesday morning. MVFR ceilings continue at KLNK/KOMA and are expected to move into KOFK late tonight. The heaviest rain of the rain is expected during the morning at KOMA/KLNK with MVFR/IFR visby expected. The rainfall is expected to become showers during the afternoon. There is some small chance of thunder at KOMA/KLNK late in the afternoon or evening the evening on Wednesday, but chances appear to low to include in the forecast currently. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fobert LONG TERM...Fobert AVIATION...Boustead

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