Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 202055 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 255 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 250 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017 Not much change to forecast trends during the period with timing of cold front tonight the main concern. A cold front was pushing into western parts of the Dakotas at 20Z with surge of warm air out ahead of the front over the central plains. Latest model guidance puts the front through most of the forecast area by 06Z with strong cold advection in place by 09Z and increasing into the morning. Have added some mention of sprinkles or flurries from this time into the middle part of the morning as models suggest some potential for light precip as lower layers saturate with band of frontogenetic forcing moving through the region. Lower layers dry out quickly by afternoon however with strong subsidence coming in behind the system. Windy conditions will also accompany the colder air on Tuesday with gusts to around 30kts indicated by model forecast soundings through the morning before diminishing in the afternoon. High pressure then settles over the area Tuesday night before moving off to the southeast on Wednesday. Warmer temperatures will begin to return on Wednesday and continue into Thursday as the surface high moves east and upper ridging develops over the western half of the nation. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 250 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017 Warm air remains over the area Thursday night into Friday before another cold front moves through the region late Friday and Friday night. High temperatures on Friday may approach record levels in some spots depending on the timing of the cold front with strong mixing indicated and very warm H850 temperatures in place ahead of the front. Cooler but still at or above seasonal normals through the weekend into early next week with no precipitation indicated at this time as area looks likely to be more under the influence of the warm western ridge then the cold eastern trough.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1129 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Southwest winds 10-16kts gusting to 20-25kts this afternoon...diminishing to under 10kts and veering to the southwest overnight. The first front switches the winds around to the northwest 08-12Z with increasing northwest winds 10-20kts and gusty Tuesday. Patches of bkn- ovc high clouds fl200-250 through tonight then some lower cigs fl050-100 Tuesday with the reinforcing cold front. There may be some sprinkles Tuesday morning with these lower clouds...however too low a confidence to include in the TAFs. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fobert LONG TERM...Fobert AVIATION...Zapotocny

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