Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 220405 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1105 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. ALOFT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NRN TX INTO SASKATCHEWAN. UPSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE IS A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS CONTINUES TO EJECT LEAD SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FRIDAY MORNING BUT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS CLOUDS. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL COME EARLY TOMORROW AND SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR WESTERN CWA IN THE MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN MAY MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE MISSOURI RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT DRIZZLE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST. THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE THEN PASSES LATE ON FRIDAY WHILE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SATURATED ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SATURDAY IS A COMPLICATED FORECAST BUT HAVE TRIED TO BACK OFF ON POPS JUST A LITTLE BIT. THE 2ND IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION LATER ON SATURDAY BUT FEEL A MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON MAY SEE LITTLE IF ANY PCPN. WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF DRIZZLE BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE THICK CLOUD COVER. INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY WEAK SO WILL ONLY MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL ROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE ASSOCIATED LEE SIDE SFC LOW DRIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION OF COLORADO. STRONG/MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF PW`S TO MUCH OF OUR EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA WHICH COULD LEAVE OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA DRY FOR SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR ANY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL BUT THAT IS QUITE A WAYS OFF FOR RIGHT NOW. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY. ON AND OFF PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE CONTINUOUS PCPN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THIS WILL SPREAD INITIALLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRI...BUT THESE WILL BE STEADILY LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY WITH MID CLOUDS BY AFTN AND THE CEILINGS COULD NEAR MVFR RANGE BY FRI EVENING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE TAFS DRY ATTM...THOUGH SOME SCT -RA DOES BECOME POSSIBLE FRI EVNG. PRECIP SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE TAF SITES THOUGH SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE SE AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS DURING THE DAY ON FRI...BUT GENERALLY BE AOB 12 KT.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

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