Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 270523 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1123 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 316 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014 MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIP EVENT FOR TONIGHT. MRNG UPPR AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED POTENT 130 KT H25 JET ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS WAS DOWNSTREAM OF SHRTWV TROF OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA. THE TROF WAS ASSOCIATED WITH 40-60 M H5 HEIGHT FALLS. THIS SYSTEM WILL EJECT NEWD THIS EVNG THROUGH NEB AS THE POSITIVELY-TILTED LARGE-SCALE TROF SHIFTS EWD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK...AND FOR THE MOST PART TIMING /GFS WAS A TAD TO FAST/ WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND OVER-ALL LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS NECESSARY. LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL OVER-SPREAD THE CWA THIS EVNG WITH THE MAX VERTICAL MOTION INDICATED BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z TIME FRAME. IT APPEARS THIS LIFT WILL BE MOST EFFECTIVE NEAR THE H7 FRONT WHERE MODERATE MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESIDE. OVER-ALL STABILITY IS FAIRLY HIGH...AND LIFT IS FAIRLY QUICK. NEVERTHELESS A GOOD 6 HOURS OF LIFT IS EXPECTED...AND WITH 3 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FEEDING INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE WE SHOULD SEE A BAND OF SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES. THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR IN NE NEB FROM AROUND KBVN-KLCG AND NORTHWEST. GOING ADVRY MAY BE A TAD EARLY...BUT WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO TIMING OR AERIAL EXTENT. THE ONLY OTHER FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT IS FOR THE CNTRL AND ERN CWA WHERE THE MID-LEVEL SATURATION EITHER IS LIMITED IN NATURE...OR DOESN`T OCCUR UNTIL LATE EVNG. HERE A SATURATED LOWER-TROPOSHERE AND LIFT ABOVE THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PATCHY FZDZ AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS EVNG. THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY SAT MRNG WITH SKIES CLEARING FM WEST TO EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WEATHER APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS MOV INTO THE WESTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE THE MID-LVL FLOW BACK OVER THE CNTRL US WITH THE LOW- LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACRS THE CWA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A NICE RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOW-FREE AREAS OF THE CWA AND HAVE INCREASED HIGHS/LOWS IN THAT AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE WRN TROF WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO DEVELOP AND MOV SWD THRU THE FA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COLDER AIR TO START THE NEW WEEK. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS FAIRLY STRONG WITH THIS FRONT...BUT STABILITY IS HIGH AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCHC POPS SUN NIGHT INTO MON MRNG FOR SOME -SN...BUT THIS WILL MOST LIKELY BE FLURRIES. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 316 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014 THE EXTENDED LOOKS PRETTY CHILLY TO START AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CNTRL US. THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST APPEARS DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN SNOW-COVERED AREAS OF THE NORTHERN CWA. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LOW WILL CUTOFF IN THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THIS MAY EJECT EWD INTO THE PLAINS TO END THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OR TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND THUS WE WILL LEAVE DAYS 6-7 DRY AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014 SNOW AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THAT SHOULD END BY 09Z AT KLNK...10Z AT KOMA AND 11Z AT KOFK. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY MVFR...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR UNTIL THE SNOW ENDS...THEN SCATTERING OUT BY 16-21Z. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 12 KTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 23-01Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>033-042-043. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD AVIATION...DEWALD

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