Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 261810 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 110 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015 SHORT TERM UPDATES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION...WINDS WITH FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH THE WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTH WILL LIMIT HIGHS IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF COOL AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH WARM AIR IN THE LOWEST 2KFT. LOOK FOR COOLING TO TAKE PLACE AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW ALOFT WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR LIGHT RAIN AS IT FALLS. ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...TRACE TO 0.05 AND THE MIX SHOULD MELT.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DEAL WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION COMES INTO PLAY IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT WAVE. SOME PRECIP MAY OCCUR AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA FRIDAY EVENING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW. WARMER AIR RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH COMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015 NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH PULLS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GFS AND EURO DIFFER ON TIMING OF FEATURE THIS RUN SO LATER ADJUSTMENTS POSSIBLE. TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES DURING THE PERIOD AS MORE ZONAL PROGRESSIVE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS TIME WHILE ECMWF SHOWS LESS ENERGY. MAIN RESULT IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP SOLUTIONS WITH TREND TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LOW POPS AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015 LOOK FOR THICKENING CLOUDS FL050-100 AND SOME -RASN OR -RA AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-02Z. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ONCE THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 4-11KTS.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

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