Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 280505 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1205 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SHORT TERM...(tonight through Saturday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016 Cold front extending from central MN into northern NE will push into the area tonight. Water vapor shows one short wave across western IA with a cluster of thundershowers from Red Oak to Atlantic will mainly affect central IA late this afternoon and could just brush southwest IA. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery indicated another short wave moving through western SD, with thunderstorms developing across western through south central SD. These were moving east southeast and could very well remain west of the forecast area overnight. Thus precip chances across the area remain slim at best tonight but with the front moving into the area, will still maintain a 20% chance, with all precip chances winding down by daybreak Thursday as high pressure continues to build into the area. The HRRR and RAP try to develop convection, but HighRes NMM/ARW remain dry. The Nam and GFS hint at spotty precip, while the ECMWF remains dry. Will go dry for Thursday with high pressure and northerly flow, with below normal temps in the lower to mid 80s. All precip chances remain well west of the forecast area across the High Plains. The area remains in weak northwest flow through the remainder of the short term. Weak disturbances could affect the area late Thursday night through Saturday with a continued small 20-30% chance of rain. Friday could see temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Saturday back to the lower to mid 80s. All below normal. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016 An upper ridge builds back across the plains which allows temps to head back into the 90s Monday through Wednesday of next week. In that transition, there may still be a small rain chance Sunday, but then dry for Monday. Models hint at weak front trying to move in under the ridge Monday night into Tuesday. Models unclear what happens to the front 7 days out, thus confidence is low in forecast details that far out. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016 VFR conditions through the period. A few showers will push through the area otherwise variable mid and high level clouds fl050/100/250. The next shortwave will move into the Plains tonight and Thursday. The better forcing and moisture is to the west. Although isolated storms could push into the area late Thursday, will leave out mention for now.
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&& .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DeWald LONG TERM...DeWald AVIATION...Zapotocny

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