Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 010221 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 921 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS WANED ACROSS OUR CWA AS LINE OF STORMS HAS PUSHED EAST OF OUR AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OVERRUNNING REGIME UNDER UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS. ONE WAVE IN THIS FLOW WAS TRIGGERING STORMS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA NOW...AND HRRR/RAP MODELS INDICATE THOSE WOULD APPROACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA NEAR 06Z THEN SWEEP SOUTHEAST. SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014 CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MOVES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 06Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT SOME CHANCE OF MORE CONVECTION FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUILDS A BIT TO THE NORTH. SOME SLIGHT POPS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FAR SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014 ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH POPS INCREASING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREA AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH. EXPECT RAIN TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO 50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DERGAN SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...CHERMOK

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