Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 211727 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1127 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 .SHORT TERM...(today through Thursday) Issued at 315 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 After a warm start to the period, pattern will begin a transition toward more seasonal conditions by Thursday. Strong near zonal flow aloft will continue to pump warm air into the region through Wednesday before an upper trough digs into the western CONUS on Thursday. Very warm and dry conditions will be the main focus today and Wednesday providing the potential for elevated fire weather concerns across the area. A Red Flag warning will be in effect for western parts of the forecast area this afternoon where low humidity and gusty winds are expected. Similar conditions are possible again on Wednesday for western parts of the area. Surface cyclogenesis develops over eastern Colorado western Kansas by Thursday morning with strong baroclinic zone near the southern Nebraska border by afternoon. A mix of rain and snow develops during the day and expands across Nebraska by late Thursday afternoon as the upper trough moves into the region. Most of the area will be in the warm sector through the day although a part of northeast Nebraska may see the rain change to snow by late afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 315 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 A return to winter conditions will occur across the area Thursday night into Friday as the surface low pressure lifts from northeast Kansas toward northeast Iowa. The low will pull a strong cold front south of the area by Friday morning with snow spreading south across the forecast area. Latest indications are for a band of snow to develop across northeast Nebraska Thursday night into Friday morning with amounts ranging from 3 to 6 inches in the north half of the area and from 3 inches to less than an inch in the south by Friday afternoon. Colder temperatures then look to hang over the area through Saturday before a warming trend returns by Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1125 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 Southwest wind 15-23 knots at KOFK through about 23z. Southwest winds at KLNK/KOMA 11-13 knots through about 23z. Otherwise VFR conditions through the period, with winds eventually becoming westerly and eventually northwesterly at KOFK toward the end of the period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ011-012- 016>018-030>033-042>044-050-051-065. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fobert LONG TERM...Fobert AVIATION...DeWald

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