Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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686 FXUS63 KOAX 050913 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 313 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY. A MULTI-STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS TO SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES LOOSELY PHASED WITH A INTENSE UPPER LOW TRAVERSING THE WRN/SRN SHORES OF HUDSON BAY. THE MAJORITY OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH THE SRN-BRANCH VORTICITY LOBE. HOWEVER...DCVA RELATED TO A WEAKER NRN-STREAM DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH WARM ADVECTION AT AROUND 850 MB AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE 280-290 K LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ACROSS THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST OVER NERN NEB INTO THIS EVENING WITHIN THE COLD CORE OF THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WHERE 850-500-MB LAPSE RATES WILL APPROACH 7 C/KM. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH. TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL TRACK ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A JET STREAK/VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY ON THE HEELS OF THE LEAD BORDER-REGION IMPULSE...CONTRIBUTING TO CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION OF A BROADER- SCALE TROUGH OVER THE N-CNTRL U.S. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE EFFECTS OF THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION ON SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE SLIGHT WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE SWEEPING SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...STRONG LOWER TO MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL YIELD STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO PROMOTE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGH-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE CONTINUED EVOLUTION OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE COLDER CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING BY TUESDAY. BY MID-WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT MID- LEVEL FLOW BECOME MORE NWLY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016 MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE TAF SITES...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE GENERALLY WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRI MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS AND A PERIOD OF -SN TO THE KOMA/KOFK TAF SITES IN THE MORNING...AND WILL INCLUDE PREVAILING -SN THERE WITH A TEMPO GROUP IN KLNK. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY MOV OUT BY EARLY AFTN WITH MVFR CIGS CONTG THROUGH THE AFTN/EVNG AT KOMA/KOFK. WE WILL ALSO SEE A CDFNT MOV THRU THE TAF SITES LATE TMRW WITH NW WINDS INCREASING IN THE EVNG AT ALL SITES. MAY SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF -SN AT KOFK/KOMA DURING THE EVNG BUT CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MEAD LONG TERM...MEAD AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

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