Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 250447 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1147 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Did a minor update to late afternoon and evening precipitation grids earlier. Area of shower/isolated thunder covered much of southwest Iowa and a decent part of eastern Nebraska as of 6 pm. Closed mid tropospheric low was over western Oklahoma. That should track east/northeast overnight toward northwest Arkansas. Expect that precipitation should be fairly widespread over at least the southeast half of the forecast area overnight. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Expect showers to continue through early evening as isolated thunderstorm potential wanes under decreasing instability. The southward progression of a surface boundary situated across southeast Nebraska has acted to limit the northward push of convection today and we expect this trend to continue. The current weather is associated with an upper level closed low that will continue progressing through the central plains through Saturday. This leaves our area in an overall unsettled pattern through at least late Saturday afternoon. Despite this system pulling out by Saturday evening quite a bit of moisture remains within the profile allowing clouds to persist. Weak mid-level ridging on Sunday should allow for light winds and an overall pleasant end to the weekend though daytime temperatures in the mid 50s. On Sunday night the next mid-level shortwave skirts across central Kansas. Have opted to maintain some low precipitation chances for southeast Nebrsaka associated with this feature. Dry weather is anticipated for Monday ahead of the next weather maker progged to move into the area by Tuesday night. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Ahead of the Tuesday night feature, quiet weather will rule with mid-level ridging in place. Monday night lows should remain above freezing, despite light winds, with temperatures on Tuesday reaching well into the 60s. On Monday night a mid-level trough will eject out of the four corner region before becoming a closed upper low by Wednesday. The latest model guidance suggests this feature will slide to our south, similar to the current system. Though with plenty of moisture in place and some coupling with a northern stream shortwave, there is plenty of dynamics in place to warrant an increase in precipitation potential Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. By Thursday how long the system lingers depends on how quickly the upstream flow moves. Thus for now, have lingered precipitation into Thursday but could see this move out quicker depending on how fast heights rise behind this low. Daytime temperatures through the work week are forecast in the 50s as 850mb temperature remain in the low single digits above zero. Through at least next week, the cold air is nowhere in sight allowing temperatures to remain near normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Expect that IFR ceilings will dominate the overnight hours and into Saturday morning. Ceilings just above 1000 feet will be possible for a few hours, mainly at KOMA. Coverage of showers may decrease through about 11Z then increase into mid morning across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Ceilings may improved to MVFR Saturday afternoon, then go back to IFR in the evening. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...Miller SHORT TERM...Pearson LONG TERM...Pearson AVIATION...Miller is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.