Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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542 FXUS63 KOAX 020815 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 315 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016 A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ARE THE PRIMARY WRINKLES IN OUR FORECAST FOR MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO MID WEEK. AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING. SHORT WAVE EMANATING FROM COLORADO SECTION OF TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING EAST TODAY...KICKED ALONG BY ANOTHER AND BIT STRONGER WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA. BOTH OF THESE IMPULSES COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND OVERNIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. A MAJORITY OF HI-RES SHORT RANGE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH BOTH SYSTEMS...SO OUR CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCES ARE ON TRACK. OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S OR CLOSE TO 70. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER CURRENT BAND OF STRATO CU MOVES SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. LOTS OF SUN TUESDAY AS WELL WITH THE BENEFIT OF WEST TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW PROVIDING A PINCH OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DIVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT BRINING A BRIEF STINT OF COOL ADVECTION...WHICH MAY KEEP HIGHS WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016 OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IS STILL ADVERTISED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH RIDGE AXIS SQUARELY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER PATTERN WILL BE BREAKING DOWN BEGINNING SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY AND KICKS MID ATLANTIC CLOSED LOW OUT TO SEA. THIS ALLOWS RIDGE IN THE PLAINS TO FLATTEN A BIT AS IT DRIFTS EAST...MAKING WAY FOR WESTERN LOW/TROUGH TO BEGIN TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION. PRECISE DETAILS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS BREAKDOWN WILL BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL CERTAINLY ENTER THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A FEW 80S LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVNG AND A SC DECK AT FL040-060 WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THIS SHIFTS S AS WELL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CU DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON MON WITH SOME ISO SHRA POSSIBLE...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TO LOW NEAR THE TAF SITES TO INCLUDE CURRENTLY. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...

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