Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 220021 AAA AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 721 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND SEVERE WX WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RED FLAG WARNING WILL GO UNTIL 7 PM WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SUBSIDING WITH SUNSET. COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. COULD HAVE SOME UPPER 30S READINGS IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH AROUND 40 TO LOW 40S TOWARD THE SOUTH. VERY HIGH FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES ON TUESDAY SO WILL BE MONITORING FOR ANY POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. BIG QUESTION FOR LATE TUESDAY IS HOW MUCH RETURN MOISTURE WE CAN WORK INTO THE AREA WITH RETREATING DRY AIRMASS. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO BRING NEAR +5 TO +7C 850MB DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA BY 12Z WED. WOULD ANTICIPATE SCATTERED TSTMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LLVL JET/STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME ALONG THIS AXIS AND SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS IN OUR EAST SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING. GFS/NAM/SREF/ECMWF ALL DEVELOP A SMALL VORT MAX THAT RIDES ON TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE CWA BY 12Z WED. THIS COULD BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM POTENTIAL COMPLEX OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT ANY LINGERING MORNING TSTMS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WED MORNING AS THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING NEAR +10C 850MB DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES...AN ELONGATED SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHEASTERN SD SWWD TO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z THU. A FEW IMPULSES EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BE ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO COME TOGETHER...ESPECIALLY LATE WED AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEB WITH SUFFICIENT BULK LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY WEAKENS THE CLOSER WE GET TO THE MO RIVER VALLEY WHERE STORMS MAY BE HIGHER BASED. THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A TRIPLE POINT NEAR THE GRAND ISLAND AREA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E/SE ACROSS THE CWA. STILL A LITTLE WAYS OUT SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WHERE ALL THE FEATURES BEGIN TO COME TOGETHER. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH CENTRAL NEB BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT NEAR THE MO RIVER AT THAT TIME. LINGERING POST FRONTAL PCPN IS QUITE POSSIBLE IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014 WEAK UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...COLD AIR TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH BRINGING NEGATIVE 850MB TEMPS BACK INTO THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014 THE RED FLAG WARNING COVERING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA HAS EXPIRED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NE...NONE. IA...NONE.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...DEE FIRE WEATHER...DEE

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