Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 271739 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1239 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015 SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WITH SEVERAL ASSOCIATED IMPULSES CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN WYOMING WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO PER MOST RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN NOTED. SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND ARE SPREADING INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AIDED BY NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET. WITH CONTINUED STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THIS MORNING...MAY SEE THESE THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MID-LATE MORNING. HAVE BOOSTED HIGH TEMPS TODAY WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE. GOOD MIXING WINDS AROUND 850MB AND INCREASING WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PUSH READINGS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY...DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. IN ANY CASE...INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70S SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD PROVIDE A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT THE MAIN SHOW LOOKS TO BE WITH THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE MOTION FOR ASCENT AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES LATER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LIKELY AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ALONG AN APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST IOWA WITH FORCING FROM INCREASING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. PW`S IN THIS AREA CONTINUE TO RANGE AROUND 2.00" SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO FINALLY SWING THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z FRIDAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW LINGERING PCPN ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. STRATUS MAY LINGER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF FRIDAY AND ALL OF SATURDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ONCE AGAIN. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015 DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A TRANSITION TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR WEST. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN WEST OF THE TAF SITES AND WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT ALL 3 SITES STARTING THIS EVNG AT KOFK AND OVERNIGHT AT KOMA/KLNK FOR THESE. MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS ACTIVITY. SFC CDFNT WILL BE MOVING SEWD ACRS THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MRNG SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW AT ALL SITES. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR CIGS...BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE THIS AT KOFK BUT WILL INCLUDE JUST A SCT DECK FOR KOMA/KLNK AT THIS TIME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

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