Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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186 FXUS63 KOAX 282316 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 616 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE AN MID-LEVEL LOW ALONG THE MN-IA BORDER AND AN UPSTREAM CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL BUILD THROUGH THE N-CNTRL U.S. TONIGHT...PROMOTING THE MAINTENANCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SAME AREA. WHILE LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY...CONSENSUS OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z/FRIDAY. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO ERN NE/KS AND WRN MO. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THESE UPPER-AIR FEATURES WILL DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW FROM WRN TX INTO NERN KS BY 12Z/SATURDAY...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY. HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL YIELD AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW (FRI) WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE SHIFTING EWD/SEWD AND BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO A BROADER-SCALE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THE MID- LEVEL COLD POOL AND LOCALLY ENHANCED VORTICITY ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS...CONSIDERABLE RUN OFF IS EXPECTED...RESULTING IN RISING AREA RIVERS. THE CLOUDY...WET CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO STUNT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016 A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FEATURING A LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA. IN THE WEST...A REX BLOCK WILL TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WHICH WILL SHIFT FROM THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE CNTRL U.S. BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS...GENERALLY DECREASING CLOUDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016 GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING AT KOMA AND KLNK WITH VFR CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY CIGS AND MAINLY AT KOFK. CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP A BIT FRI AFTN...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY DID NOT PUT THAT IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MEAD LONG TERM...MEAD AVIATION...MILLER

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