Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KOAX 270800 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD...WITH PCPN CHANCES GENERALLY 14 PERCENT OR LESS. CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB THAT WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WAS OVER THE SERN CORNER OF MANITOBA AT 00Z WITH AN 80-90 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB NOTED SOUTH OF THE LOW NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER. MAX 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB WERE ESTIMATED AT AROUND 70 METERS. WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE LOW CONTINUED TO DROP SEWD AND WAS OVER NRN MN. A LITTLE CG LTNG WAS NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE COLD POCKET. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD AND BECOME MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES...CHANGING OUR MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FROM W/NW TO MORE NW/N. THIS WILL ALLOW SEASONABLY COOL AIR TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BE GUSTY FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO LATE AFTN. SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BUT BE MOSTLY SCT. THESE WINDS WILL BRING IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR...THEN DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE DKTS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY MAINLY FROM 80 TO 85 AND LOWS TONIGHT 55 TO 60. MONDAY...SOME 850 MB MOISTURE WILL TRY TO WORK INTO THE NERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY WEAK ML CAPE IN OUR AREA BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS TO OUR WEST AND TO OUR EAST. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE SHALLOW...SO DID NOT MENTION ANY PCPN. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH PCPN CHANCES OFF TO OUR WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS BRING SOME SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT FOR NOW THIS APPEARED TO BE TOO FAR EAST. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL AND THE SURFACE AND THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OR LARGE SCALE FORCING IN OUR AREA. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 GENERALLY STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND IN THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN OUR WRN/SWRN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGESTED THAT SOME LOW POPS WERE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SO FOLLOWED THAT TREND. 00Z ECMWF ALSO HINTED AT A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN FRIDAY. PATTERN OF A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST REGION WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ONLY SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THEN CLEAR SKIES AND NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY 15Z THROUGH 00Z BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10KT AFTER 00Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...DERGAN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.