Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 300443 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1143 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM WILL BE ANY LIGHT SPRINKLES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN TEMPERATURES...AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF INTEREST WAS THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER ONTARIO CANADA WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. OF NOTE ON THE H3 MAP WAS THE H3 JET OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT H5...THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW IN CANADA AND THESE TRAILED SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS NOTED AT H5 AT KLBF ON THEIR 12Z SOUNDING. THE BETTER H7 AND H85 MOISTURE WAS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS.H85 DEWPOINTS OF 14-16 DEG C FROM NEW MEXICO INTO TX/OK/SOUTHERN KS. THERE IS A POCKET OF WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION/WEAKENING H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS WITH PATCHY MID LEVEL CUMULUS AND A FEW SPRINKLES. ALSO HAVE SOME WEAK RIGHT ENTRANCE JET LIFT. HAVE ADDED SOME SPRINKLES WITH THESE FEATURES. MOST OF THE MODELS WERE DRY...HOWEVER THE HRRR AND THE HRRRX DID HINT AT THIS IN THEIR ASSIMILATED REFLECTIVITY FIELDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGH THURSDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO EAST INSTABILITY AXIS DEVELOPING AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS AXIS. WE ARE IN NORTHWEST LOW ALOFT AND THE FORCING IS WEAK. INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE TO 2000 J/KG THURSDAY NIGHT AND 4000 J/KG FRIDAY. DO MENTION ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WEAK FORCING IN THIS PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO THE WEST WITH THE MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF TO OUR EAST AND WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE EC TRIES TO BRING A DEEPER WAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MORE ROBUST PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...KERN

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