Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 130845 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 245 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THIS PERIOD. MAIN FEATURES NOTED FROM THE UPPER AIR CHARTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JET STREAK OF AROUND 145 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. WINDS OF ABOUT 100 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WERE OVER OREGON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF CONCERN. AT 500 MB...12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 100 METERS WERE OVER SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA...WHILE A RIDGE STRETCHED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION UP INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT WAS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AT 700 MB AND 850 MB. COLDEST VALUES AT 850 MB WERE AROUND -39 C ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF JAMES BAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWED A RIDGE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA DOWN INTO OUR AREA. WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTHEAST OR EAST...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. PRESSURE FALLS WERE HIGHEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. RADAR ECHOES HAD BEEN INCREASING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA. TODAY...EXPECT THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW SEEMS HIGHEST THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...WHERE UP TO AROUND HALF AN INCH OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE. DRIER AIR OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD LIMIT PCPN THERE. A BAND OF SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON AN AXIS FROM AROUND YANKTON TO DENISON BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW BEING THERE TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. OUR AREA WILL BE IN THE FRINGES OF THE BEST DYNAMICS FOR SNOW. 00Z NAM WAS PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO BULLISH WITH ITS SNOW AMOUNTS IN OUR AREA TONIGHT... BUT WILL GO WITH UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN SOME OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOULD LINGER SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WESTERN IOWA...BUT THAT QUICKLY MOVES EAST. EXPECT A DECENT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN TO THE WEST. CURRENTLY HAVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DRY FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 00Z RUNS OF ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING PCPN IN THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE LIKELY RAIN OR A MIX...BASED ON MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW. PCPN CHANCES SEEMED TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK... BUT MAY NEED TO ADJUST THAT LATER. A FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED. MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY SHOULD BUILD EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY...WHILE A TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO THE 40S AND 50S...WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 VFR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT BECOMING MVFR AT KOFK BY 15Z. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 12 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 12 KNOTS OR GREATER BY 15-20Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...DEWALD

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