Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
763 FXUS63 KOAX 271735 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1235 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 349 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 WV imagery this morning showing northwest flow aloft with an upstream shortwave ridge over the northern high Plains followed by a a shortwave trof currently moving ashore over the coastline of British Columbia. Also noted was scattered convection riding atop aforementioned ridge in MT. At the surface...large area of high pressure was in control over the central CONUS. Models are in pretty good agreement potential for severe storms will exist over the next several days along with a good chance for a prolonged period of precipitation for some location. Increasing low level theta-E advection coupled with daytime heating will allow for quick destabiliation as a warm front lifts northward this afternoon. But with strong cap in place...convection will likely be held in check until late afternoon. At any rate...initiation is progged on nose of steep sfc-3km lapse rates/edge of cap over swrn SD/nrn Neb panhandle. Line of convection will increase in intensity/areal coverage this evening as it pushes eastward with onset of strengthening low level jet. Activity will likely be in the form of a QLCS when it reaches the CWA shortly before midnight...leading to a probable damaging wind event. Precip into Wednesday most likely to be found over the eastern CWA as a cold front moves in from the west. Models prog this cold front to stall from about s-cntrl IA to n-cntrl KS Wednesday night...and remain in the vicinity of the southern CWA all the way into Thursday night. This...in addition to a shortwave trof approaching from the northwest will lead to the potential for an additional round severe storms and generous rainfall. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 349 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Precip chances return to the region next weekend with better chances coming early next week in association with a Pacific NW trof pushing into the central Plains. Otherwise...expect max temps to be just below normal over the weekend with near normal temps early next week. && .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Winds and storms will be the primary concerns during the TAF period. Gradient winds ahead of storms will be southeast at 15 to 28 knots through much of the period. Strong and potentially severe storms arrive in KOFK by 04-06z, and in KLNK and KOMA by 05-08z. Stronger winds in excess of 30 to 40 knots will the concern with storms.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...DeWald

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.