Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 251140 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 640 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Saturday) Issued at 322 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016 Forecast challenges in the short term will be how far north of the surface front will the precipitation spread into the forecast area each period...then precipitation becoming more widespread Friday and Friday night...along with cloud cover and temperatures. Surface high pressure was over the Western High Plains with the surface front near Wichita and Kansas City. We are on the cool side of the front with temperatures in the 50s and 60s with similar dewpoints. The h5 trough extended from the lowest pressures over Manitoba southward toward Colorado and back toward Idaho. Shortwave trough energy tracks across Kansas through tonight. Through tonight...the PWAT values around 1.5 inches are generally over the southeast parts of the state and begin moving northward Friday. h85 dewpoints reflect this with moist 12 to 16 degree C values across parts of Kansas and Missouri with 8 to 12 degree dewpoints in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, with drier conditions farther north. Southwest flow aloft will transport the moisture north of the front into our county warning area. The latest runs on the hires models continue to support the highest pops through tonight near the Kansas border and more isolated showers toward I80. As the trailing trough deepens Friday, south flow increases and the h85 front lifts northward. The theta-e axis over Kansas lifts northward into South Dakota and Minnesota through Friday night. As this shortwave pushes through Friday and Friday night...have high pops across the area. With a more zonal flow for the weekend...still some chance for isolated precip. Cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s...then some warmer 80s for parts of the area Saturday. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 322 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016 Warmer highs in the 80s are forecast for the extended with periodic chances for thunderstorms. The pattern does not have any strong fronts push through. Did mention some patchy fog Saturday night and Sunday morning. Much of the weather attention will probably center on the track of tropical activity heading toward Florida Sun-Wed.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.) Issued at 640 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016 Generally expect VFR conditions...especially for KOFK and KOMA through the period. Some MVFR visibilities are likely and MVFR ceilings possible in the precipitation. Radar loop early this morning showed an area of SHRA and TSRA moving northeast into far southeast Nebraska. The chances for rain today are the highest at KLNK and will include a TEMPO group for SHRA there. Main area of thunder could stay just to the south...but will amend if needed. Rain chances farther north seemed too low to include in the TAFs at this time.
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&& .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Zapotocny LONG TERM...Zapotocny AVIATION...Miller

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