Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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150 FXUS63 KOAX 110835 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 335 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES...
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- There could be some lingering flooding this morning in portions of northeast Nebraska. - There is a 20-40% chance of additional storms today and a 5% chance of severe storms. The main threats would be damaging winds and hail. - Temperatures cool slightly on Saturday before warming up Sunday through Tuesday. Active weather returns next week.
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&& .DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Showers and storms continued across the area early this morning as a shortwave trough continued to push through with a surface boundary stalled across southern IA and into southeast NE and west-central KS and surface low along the central NE/KS border. Expect some lingering showers and perhaps a few isolated storms this morning as the surface low continues to push east toward the NE/KS/IA/MO border region, though they should generally be in a dissipating stage. However, by this afternoon we should see some redevelopment along the surface boundary, though latest guidance suggests it should be just southeast of our forecast area. Still, it`s worth keeping an eye on, especially with 2000-3000+ J/kg of SBCAPE per HREF guidance and potential for a few stronger to severe storms, though weak deep layer shear should somewhat limit storm organization if we manage to get something to develop in our area. The main threats would be damaging winds and some hail. The good news is that if we do get any heavier precipitation, most of it should fall south of where we saw the heaviest rain overnight, so the overall flooding risk should be on the lower side. Then as we head into the late evening and overnight hours, a surface cold front currently stretching northeast to southwest across ND and into MT and WY will push into the area and bring some additional 20- 30% chances for rain. Latest CAMs suggest coverage in our area could be somewhat limited with dissipating trends as the front pushes southeast. We should dry out Saturday morning with mid-level height rises and surface ridging sliding through. This should lead to a pretty nice day with highs mostly in the lower to mid 80s and fairly "manageable" humidity, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. We`ll rise back into the mid 80s to lower 90s on Sunday as southerly flow returns on the back side of departing high pressure. Guidance suggests some shortwave energy passes by both just north and just south, but good agreement that we stay dry. The warming trend will continue into Monday with persistent southerly flow and highs in the 90s for most. Active weather looks like it could return by Tuesday as a cold front starts to approach from the north and some shortwave energy slides by to our south. Still some spread in frontal passage timing with various ensemble members pushing the front through our area by Wednesday morning and others holding off until Wednesday night. Guidance is in decent agreement that a shortwave will then follow behind the front at some point and give us a another shot at rain. Severe weather chances currently appear to be on the lower side with strongest deep layer shear remaining well to our north. However, depending on timing of the front/wave, we could have quite a bit of instability in place to yield some isolated severe storms. For what it`s worth, various machine learning severe weather probabilities keep our chances below 5%. Otherwise, temperatures behind the front should be pretty comfortable, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s for at least a couple days.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Strongest of thunderstorms have pushed east into western Iowa with SHRA and -TSRA expected to linger through about 09Z at KLNK and KOMA. Have added some BR to KOFK from 10Z to 14Z. Currently have visibility remaining in VFR category (5 miles) but that may certainly dip lower than that as cigs dip into MVFR category through about 17Z. Friday afternoon brings another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms, but confidence in their timing and location is too low to include in TAF issuance at this time. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NE...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for NEZ012-015-017-018- 031>034-042>045-050>053. IA...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043-055-056-069.
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&& $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...Nicolaisen