Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 042116 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 316 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015 IMPRESSIVE JETSTREAM LEVEL WINDS CONTINUED IN A BAND FROM KOAX AND KTOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NORTHERN MAINE AT 12Z. A MAX OF AROUND 180 KNOTS WAS NOTED AT 300 MB OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. MESSY SITUATION WILL OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET LIFTS EASTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. CLOSER TO HOME...SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN AREA OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CENTER OF THAT HIGH SHOULD BUILD DOWN INTO WESTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA WITH DECREASING WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER. LOOK FOR LOWS MAINLY FROM ABOUT ZERO TO 5 ABOVE. LOWS MAY BE A BIT WARMER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY A BIT COLDER FROM NORTH OF NORFOLK TO EAST OF OMAHA. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THURSDAY...BUT DUE TO A COLD START AND WINDS ONLY SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR MIXING...LOOK FOR HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. WARMEST READINGS WILL OCCUR IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND COOLEST READINGS OVER WESTERN IOWA. BETTER WARMING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN IOWA ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THIS PCPN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA. IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR DOWN INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON...SO LOWERED PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS FOR SATURDAY DOWNWARD JUST SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015 TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE SATURDAY...MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER SOME SPOTS. BETTER WARMING ARRIVES FOR MONDAY AS 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE. THIS MILD AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AND AT LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS START TO HAVE MORE THAN MINOR DIFFERENCES BY THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW WILL FAVOR THE GFS A BIT MORE...SINCE IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN MODEL AND ALSO FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. ALTHOUGH NOT READY TO COMPLETELY BUY INTO THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION... IT DOES SUGGEST SOME PCPN IS POSSIBLE BY DAY 8 (THURSDAY).
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&& .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING BY 00Z AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 03Z. SCT-BKN CU THROUGH 23Z THEN CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...FOBERT

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