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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KOAX 241121
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES SHOULD PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THIS PERIOD.

PATTERN AT 500 MB AT 00Z FEATURED A CLOSED LOW JUST OF THE COAST OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN ANTICYCLONE WITH A CENTER AROUND 599
DM OVER COLORADO AND A TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL. THE HIGH OVER COLORADO WILL PUSH DOWN INTO NEW MEXICO AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z SUNDAY.

WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO INHIBIT CONVECTION TODAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME MODERATE ELEVATED MOISTURE JUST TO OUR WEST
(6 DEGREE 700 MB DEWPOINTS NOTED AT BOTH KLBF AND KABR) ALONG WITH
SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. RECENT HOURLY SHORT RANGE MODELS...
HRRR AND RAP13...DEVELOP CONVECTION INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY
AROUND 12Z OR SO. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON WHAT EXACTLY WILL HAPPEN
BUT WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS MAINLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. THERE WERE NOT ANY RADAR ECHOES IN
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF 330 AM...BUT THERE WERE SOME CLOUDS
WITH BASES AROUND 9500 FEET. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AMEND GRIDS/FORECAST PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

EXPECT MOST HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY...WARMEST WEST AND COOLEST
EAST. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A COMBINED RESULT OF CLOUD COVER AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

DRIER MID LEVEL AIR SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION TONIGHT IN
OUR AREA. 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 14-16 DEGREE C
RANGE SO CHANCES SEEM LOW. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...IN CASE ANY STORMS THAT FORM
TO THE WEST DRIFT EAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

DECIDED TO KEEP POPS AT 14 OR LESS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...EVEN THOUGH A FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM...SO EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO
STAY CAPPED. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S NORTH
AND 95 TO 100 SOUTH. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 100 TO 105 ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT NO HEADLINES EXPECTED
FOR THAT AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY EVENING...AND THEN TRY TO ROLL EAST/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS FORECAST INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 81 AND KEPT THAT THINKING. 00Z NAM MODEL MAY HAVE
BEEN A BIT OVERDONE WITH PCPN SATURDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE SOME 20
TO 30 PERCENT POPS MOST AREAS. SOME LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE
PRESENT BASED ON RECENT NAM AND GFS RUNS. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO
SHIFT SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
SATURDAY SHOULD VARY FROM MID 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

OUR AREA WILL GENERALLY BE IN MODEST NORTHWEST MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
FOR DAYS 3 TO 7. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK MINIMAL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN...SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR
NOW. AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...PCPN CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE. HAVE ADDED SOME 20-30 PERCENT POPS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THERE
ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KOFK AND KOMA FROM 15Z
THROUGH 20Z...THEN OVER ALL THE AREA AFTER 06Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT TAF SITES...AVERAGING 15 TO 25KT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CAUSING CONVECTION IN
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE EAST AND KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS WELL AWAY FROM TAF SITES. BUT ISOLATED STORMS COULD
DEVELOP LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT COULD ALSO TRIGGER
STORMS...BUT WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN