Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 250437 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1137 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Expect that showers and thunderstorms will be scattered over all of the area for the overnight. Did increase POPs a bit earlier in the evening. Cold front continues to push east and should move out of southeast NE and southwest IA overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Large scale flow turns more progressive the next several days as strengthening ridge off the west coast kicks downstream trof eastward out of the rockies. Before then...morning soundings indicated PWS values were anywhere from 125-150% of norm ahead of a stalled thermal boundary currently extending from about western MN to southwest KS. Regional 88D indicating narrow band of pcpn was accompanying the front. Surface obs are indicating the boundary is already reached the western periphery of the CWA with a smattering of cells popping up. Just a matter of time now before the pcpn activity becomes more widespread as the front slows and stalls early this evening from northwest IA to n-cntrl KS. With the quasi-stationary boundary pretty much remaining parallel to flow aloft...an extended period of transverse ageostrophic forcing will be in place to tap into a moisture rich environment. Conditions for excessive rainfall look quite favorable given continuous theta-E advection pushing KI values to around 40. Models are in decent agreement suggesting amounts up to 3" to 4" inches may be realized by events end late Tuesday morning. Noticeably cooler temps will invade the region then Monday with highs only topping in the mid/upper 50s north of the I-80 corridor with low/mid 70s south. Tuesday highs will push into the low/mid 60s. A bit of a rebound on WEdnesday with highs in the lower 70s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Upper ridging/large surface high over the nrn/cntrl Plains will translate to dry and and mild conditions heading into next weekend with highs generally in the U60s/L70s and lows in the M40s. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 KOFK should be in MVFR or IFR ceilings much of the period, with some lower visibility at times with SHRA or TSRA. Conditions should deteriorate at KLNK and KOMA and north or northwest winds bring cool and moisture air into the area. Ceilings should become MVFR the next few hours and then be MVFR to IFR most of the rest of the period with SHRA and TSRA. Winds will remain mainly from the north or northwest at 5 to 12 knots.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...Miller SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...Miller

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