Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 161106 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 606 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very high fire danger today and Sunday. Near-extreme conditions are expected in northeast NE this afternoon, and a Red Flag Warning may become necessary. - Turning colder Sunday into Sunday night. Warming early next week with growing uncertainty in the temperature forecast by mid week. - Low precipitation chances (20-30%) from Wednesday night into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Today into Sunday night: A vigorous shortwave trough translating through the ND-MN Red River and upper-MS River Valleys early this morning will contribute to the formation of a broad midlevel trough east of the Rockies this weekend. In the low levels, an associated weak cold front is advancing through the Dakotas and MN with that boundary rapidly moving through our area later this morning. Steepening low-level lapse rates within the post-frontal environment will allow for the downward transfer of drier air to the surface amidst strong northwest winds with gusts of 30-35 mph. As a result, fire danger will be very high today with conditions on the margins of Red Flag Warning criteria over northeast NE where less rainfall occurred this past Wednesday night into Thursday. At present, confidence in Red Flag Warning criteria being met is too low for a headline issuance. However, wind and moisture data will be re-evaluated later this morning. Regardless, we encourage people to avoid activities that could ignite a fire. Highs today will be similar to those on Friday; in the mid 50s to lower 60s. A second, stronger front will move through the region tonight, accompanied by a colder low-level air mass. Winds will remain strong from the north-northwest Sunday with highs mainly in the 40s. And even though it will be colder, the strong winds combined with dry conditions will result in widespread very high fire danger during the afternoon and evening hours. Surface high pressure will build into central NE Sunday night, allowing winds to diminish. When coupled with mostly clear skies, the setup should allow for fairly good radiational cooling with lows falling into the teens to low 20s. Monday through Friday: A split-flow, midlevel pattern will be maintained through much of the upcoming week with the mid-MO Valley remaining between the two primary belts of westerlies. In the low levels, the cold air mass which moved into the region Sunday will be scoured on Monday by a strengthening warm advection regime. By about mid week, the global models hint at a fairly strong baroclinic zone developing from the northern High Plains toward mid-MO Valley. In fact, NBM maximum temperature standard deviations depict peak values across SD into northern NE on Wednesday and Thursday, which suggest a considerable amount of model spread in exactly where the front will set up. So while the current forecast will indicate highs in the 50s and 60s both of those days, temperatures, especially across northeast NE, could end up cooler if the front ends up a little farther south. The forecast will indicate low PoPs (20-30%) beginning Wednesday night and continuing into Friday to account for any precipitation development in the vicinity of the above-mentioned boundary lingering in the area. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
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Issued at 559 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Northwesterly winds 10-20 knots are expected at all TAF sites through the forecast period. This afternoon, wind gusts up to 30 knots will be possible, particularly between 17Z and 23Z across northeast Nebraska (KOFK). Low level wind shear will be a concern across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa (KOMA and KLNK) through 13Z, but should quickly diminish over the course of the morning. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites for the duration of the forecast period.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mead AVIATION...Darrah

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