Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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692 FXUS63 KOAX 221942 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 242 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Early afternoon surface analysis indicated ridge axis from southwest MN into northwest KS. This is expected to develop across the FA overnight. With skies mainly clear, dry air in place, and the light winds we will see a seasonably cool night. Some patchy frost appears possible in the favored cooler areas of the CWA. Return flow gets going on Sunday as the short-wave ridge and associated height rises cross the northern Plains. Mixing to around 850 mb yields highs in the lower 70s most places. With gusty south winds, warm temperatures and dry air we will see very high fire danger across the area on Sunday, but it appears that RH will remain to high for any watches/warnings at this time. The next short-wave trough will start to break down the ridge on Monday with a surface trough moving into the CWA during the day. Good mixing ahead of this feature should boost highs in the mid 70s. Moisture return still looks poor with the surface ridge to the south so the front appears as if it will go through dry. A stronger system associated with strong large-scale forcing for ascent and frontogenesis moves into the area on Tuesday. This should spread widespread rainfall to the area, starting in the northwest in the morning and expanding across the area during the day. The clouds, north winds and rain will likely make for a raw day over the CWA with highs failing to climb out of the 40s in northeast NEb and 50s southeast NEb/southwest IA. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 The Tuesday system will start to exit to the east on Tuesday night, but the rainfall should continue into the evening hours. Surface ridge will then build in for Tuesday night and Wednesday with cool, but dry weather. The latter periods of the forecast continue to look active with a large trough develop over the central US with a number of energetic systems moving through. The first appears will bring rain to the area on Thursday into Friday and then quickly on the heels of this, more rain for Saturday. With the mean trough in place, and several periods of clouds and rain we will see well below normal temperatures through the period.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 VFR conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure dominates the weather pattern during this time. Increasing south winds expected toward the end of the period as surface pressure gradient tightens in advance of next upper trough approaching the southern Rockies. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Fobert

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