Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 192339 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 639 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014 SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE HOW QUICK STORMS WILL FORM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE HEAT WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY AND PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WITH THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE AREA. AT 20Z...THE SURFACE FRONT APPEARED TO BE AROUND HILL CITY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...TO NEAR TOPEKA. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS AROUND NORFOLK. DEWPOINTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. THE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALWAYS TRICKY. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...THERE IS A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...THETA-E ADVECTION...INCREASING OMEGA AND STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH 12Z...THEN LIFT NORTH. ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE...THERE IS A RAMP-UP TIME DURING THE EVENING FOR MOISTURE RETURN. PWAT VALUES DO INCREASE INTO THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN...HOWEVER...HOW FAR SOUTH WITH THE RAIN DEVELOP? WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTH AND CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN-BETWEEN THROUGH THE OMAHA GLENWOOD AND WAHOO AREAS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AT LINCOLN AND DRY IN THE SOUTH. THE HI-RESOLUTION MODELS TEND TO INCREASE THE PRECIP CHANCES AFTER 06Z...SO WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW PRIOR TO THEN.A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE HEAT BUILDS IN. IT SHOULD BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 95 TO 104 AREA. RIPPLES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE WITH CONTINUED HOT WEATHER AND PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. ONE OF THESE WAVES MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH...HOWEVER NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL PUSH. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HAVE HIGHS IN THE 80S NORTH...BUT IN THE 90S SOUTH. IN GENERAL THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE UNLESS STORMS PROPAGATE INTO THE WARM AIR. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014 THE SURFACE FRONT IS STILL IN THE COUNTY WARNING FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE EC IS STILL FASTER WITH THE PASSAGE SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH MONDAY. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL GO WITH A BLEND AND FOR NOW...WE ARE LEANING TOWARD A FASTER PASSAGE...WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR A WARM FRONT THAT WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FEW MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND HAVE CONTINUED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...KERN

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