Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 230910 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 410 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1252 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016 8Z subjective surface analysis indicates a cold front situated along a line from KONL to KEAR to KHYS. Temperatures were quite mild with many places reporting around 70 degrees, nearly 15 degrees above normal. A line of showers and thunderstorms have migrated into northeast Nebraska but are losing their surface based characteristics virtually ruling out any severe weather threat early this morning. Expect this line of showers and thunderstorms to continue to diminish this morning as it waddles east. Aloft broad southwesterly flow was noted ahead of an upper level western conus trough. This trough, as it shifts east, will be a major weather maker for our area by the end of the work week and looks to dominate our weather into the weekend. New precipitation development is expected later this morning and into the afternoon ahead of a weak shortwave progged to pass through this evening. Overall severe weather parameters aren`t great, but can`t rule out stronger storms as the atmosphere destabilizes this afternoon. The severe weather threat continues into Tuesday as a more prominent shortwave moves through. For Tuesday it`ll be a question of timing and if the shortwave timing coincides with peak heating, which could very well place the better severe weather threat further west towards Hastings and Kearney. On Wednesday we should see a break, albeit a short one, in the precipitation chances as the boundary layer dries out. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1252 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016 An unsettled weather pattern is expected through this period as broad southwesterly mid-level flow dominates ahead of the main system by Friday. To start Wednesday evening some low-level drying continues from earlier in the day allowing for a continued break in precipitation. By late in the evening the first of a couple of shortwaves propagate through, potentially bringing a return of precipitation as well. Guidance differs a bit on the location and track of these features. Overall confidence in Wednesday night precipitation isn`t very high as a result. Thursday evening marks the beginning of the period where we could see the best heavy rain potential. Recent guidance suggests areas along the Nebraska/Kansas border and into southwest Iowa will be under the gun for the heaviest rain. Model predicted precipitable water, which tends to be overestimated, is around 1.6 inches in these areas Thursday night. If this were to verify it would be a near record value based on past data collected at the Omaha NWS office. Thursday night will need to be watched for a potential flash flood watch, especially given some rain, possibly heavy, will have fallen in the days prior. By late Friday morning the heavy rain pushes east into central and eastern Iowa as the main upper low traverses the forecast area. As this and the corresponding surface low track through the central Plains, the chance for severe weather on Friday seems increasingly likely. At the moment the better potential would be south into Kansas, but our area will need to be monitored. Thereafter remnant southwesterly flow along with modest available moisture will allow for precipitation chances through Sunday.
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&& .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 06Z Tuesday) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016 Conditions are expected to deteriorate through 09z as line of storms over central Nebraska moves east in advance of a cold front. MVFR cigs and vsbys are expected with the storms as they move into the area with cigs remaining MVFR into the morning through about 16z. Short range models stall front over eastern Nebraska after 16z so improvement in conditions may be slow in coming with potential for additional storms especially for KLNK and KOMA after 21Z. && .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Pearson LONG TERM...Pearson AVIATION...Fobert

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