Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 202100 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 300 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017 Main concerns in this period are precipitation chances from Tonight into Saturday morning, then temperatures through the period. Fog could become an issue, but will not go with an advisory at this time. Primary features of concern from the 12Z upper air charts included the following. At 300 mb...strong winds were noted in the eastern Pacific (up to 175 knots) which were punching toward northern Baja. A secondary jet max of over 100 knots was lifting north/northeast from western Montana. At 500 mb, one shortwave trough was lifting northeast from the Dakotas and Minnesota, while another was over Colorado. 12 hour height falls with the second shortwave were as high as 120 meters. That feature will be lifting northeast through the local area tonight, with measurable precipitation, and also into Saturday morning. Precipitation type tonight should be mainly rain, but some snow could mix in. The mix would be mainly across northeast Nebraska and at this time, no accumulation is expected. Looks for lows tonight mainly in the 30s. Clouds should decrease across the area Saturday, with highs reaching into the mid 40s to lower 50s. If clouds are slower to clear, it may end up being cooler. North or northwest winds Saturday night into Sunday should bring some cooler air back into the area which will last into Monday. At least for now, expect any precipitation Saturday night would stay south of our area. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017 We will be watching this period closely. The longer range models are in decent agreement with the large scale features, but details vary. Low pressure should intensify over the high plains Monday night, then track east or northeast through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Warm advection/isentropic upglide, start Monday night but any saturation appears to stay to our north in that period. Highest probabilities for accumulating snow from the 12Z GFS model are over the northern half of the forecast area. The 12Z ECMWF is similar, but has higher snow amounts that cover most of the area. It is too early to get specific or to jump on one model solution over another. Will bump pops upward slightly and will have some likely wording for snow.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday morning) Issued at 1155 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017 Variable conditions across the TAF sites with LIFR cigs and MVFR/VFR vsbys. Moisture remains in place through the TAF period with continued mid/upper level support as surface low pressure develops over the region and shifts east into Iowa Saturday morning. Have deteriorating conditions later this afternoon and overnight with LIFR/IFR vsbys and cigs with fog/drizzle/light rain. Between 12-15Z low level moisture/shows improvement through 18z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NE...None. IA...None.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...Miller LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...Zapotocny

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