Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 241815 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 115 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Temperatures Tuesday and thunderstorm chances mainly from Tuesday night through mid week are the main forecast concerns. Early this morning, surface analysis showed high pressure extending from MN back southwest into eastern NE. Dewpoints locally were in the upper 50s and lower 60s, with temperatures not much higher than that at most locations. Fog had not developed as of 330 am cdt, but still could yet this morning, so will keep mention of at least patchy fog into mid morning. Mid tropospheric ridge remained centered over the Four Corners region, with the northern and central parts of the Plains in northwest flow. That ridge will build southeast toward TX and OK through Tuesday, while a fairly compact shortwave trough/closed low tracks east across southern Canada. This should help a cold front push east through the Dakotas and MN. The boundary will continue to move east/southeast Wednesday, making its way across NE and IA with decent thunderstorm chances. Today, after any fog, it should be sunny to partly cloudy, with increasing southerly flow as high pressure at the surface tracks east away from the area. Highs should reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in the western parts of the forecast area, and mid to upper 80s east. For now, removed the slight thunderstorm chances we had going in parts of northeast NE for tonight. Forcing is pretty weak, and chances are a bit high to our north/northeast. On Tuesday, look for increasing south or southwest winds and those should help push highs into the lower and mid 90s. That will likely be the warmest day of the week. Kept Tuesday, at least during the day time hours, dry as well. Thunderstorm chances do move into our area Tuesday night. Models develop a 30-40 knot low level jet and increase precipitable water values mainly into the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range. There should also be a moderately strong area of Q Vector convergence in the 700-500 mb layer that tracks across our area from northwest to southeast. The 00Z GFS was faster in moving the precipitation out of the area, compared to the 00Z ECMWF. At this time, preferred to use a blend of the timing from both models. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 The chance for a decent rain is highest over east central NE and southwest IA Wednesday night, then that will shift down into KS and MO by Thursday night. Kept thunderstorm chances during the day Thursday generally south of Interstate 80. With probably a decent amount of sky cover, highs may only reach 80 to 85. 500 mb ridge is expected to retrograde back to the four corners region by Friday, and then strengthen over the western CONUS through the weekend. Models differ on exactly how strong that will be, and how much warm/hot air will expand into our area from the high Plains. For now, kept highs in the 80s from Friday through Sunday. There will be some low chances for precipitation, mainly late Friday night into Saturday morning in northeast NE and for the northern half of the forecast area Sunday afternoon/evening. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 VFR conditions at all three TAF sites with variable scattered and broken mid clouds.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Miller LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...Pearson

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