Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 291104 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 604 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST. OVERALL POOR MIXING WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH THE COOLER READINGS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT DON`T BELIEVE ANY PRECIP WOULD GET THIS FAR SOUTH. BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SCATTERED STRATOCU CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. MUCH COOLER AIR THEN SETTLE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH RECENT MODELS TRENDING CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR HALLOWEEN...SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 THE COOL WEATHER LINGERS INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE UPPER 40S. TEMPS DO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR SUNDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH...AND WHERE PRECIP MIGHT DEVELOP. GFS NOW IS THE DRIER MODEL...WHILE THE ECMWF HINTS AT PRECIP POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF EXPECTED WEATHER BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY IS LOW. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH 30/12Z. SFC WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS TAF SITES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI RIVER. LATER TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS ERN NEBR. AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR/BEHIND FRONT ALONG WITH A SHIFT TO NW WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 30/12Z.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...CHERMOK

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