Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 242316 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 616 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014 MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS FORECAST IS IN THE SHORT TERM. TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT WAA PATTERN CONTINUE TO RIDE THE EDGE OF THE INCREASING CAP THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY CONT TO AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF OUR WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS BEFORE THE CAPPING INVERSION BECOMES TO STRONG FOR OUR CWA. OTHER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GET GOING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEE TROUGH WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOWER 100S...AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR CI. SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY WANT TO TRY AND MAKE IT INTO NE NEB LATE THIS EVENING BUT WE FEEL THIS APPEARS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE INCREASE CAP AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF DEEP MIXING. THUS IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET BUT WARM NIGHT WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN THE CDFNT TIMING FOR FRI AS THE NAM HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE EC/GEM OF YESTERDAY. THUS HIGHS IN THE CNTRL/SRN CWA SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN CAPPED OVER THE FA GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER ON FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING MOISTURE LOCKED INTO THE FA. TSRA MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FRI AFTN AND ATTEMPT TO ROLL ALONG THE EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL CAP/INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER NRN NEB/SRN SD FRI NIGHT. THE NAM/EC ARE THE STRONGEST WITH THIS PATTERN AS THE GFS SCOURS OUT MORE OF THE MOISTURE POST FRONTAL. CURRENTLY WE PREFER MORE THE EC/NAM LOOK TO THE PATTERN AND WILL CONT WITH SOME POPS AFTER 09Z FRI NIGHT. SOME CONVECTION MAY TRY AND LINGER INTO THE DAY ON SAT OR REGENERATE GIVEN THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INVERTED TROUGH SLIDING SEWD THROUGH THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES FAVOR SOME CONVECTION ON SAT...EITHER A CONTINUATION OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY OR NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH DURING THE AFTN. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT AN ISO SVR THREAT IF THIS PATTERN ENDS UP DEVELOPING. ONCE THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA ON SAT EVENING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK TO END FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVS INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014 MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL APPEARS QUIET WITH SEASONABLY COOL AIR IN PLACE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S APPEAR LIKELY FOR MON/TUE BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL. AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BY MID WEEK WE WILL CONT TO MENTION THE CHANCES FOR MAINLY NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014 VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES. WINDS INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND 170-150 DEGREES AT 14-16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. GUSTS DROP OFF BY 02Z...BUT WINDS REMAIN AROUND 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND SLOWLY VEER TO WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND 210 DEGREES BY 13-15Z...AND THEN 240-270 DEGREES BY 17-19Z...AND THEN 300-330 DEGREES BY 20-24Z.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ065>068-078- 088>093. IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ079-080-090- 091. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD AVIATION...DEWALD

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