Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 201202 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 702 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014 RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY...WITH CLEAR AND MILD WEATHER LEADING UP TO IT. WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT HAD MOVED THROUGH MOST TO THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE SPILLING IN BEHIND. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RULE THE DAY TODAY...WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS COMMENCING LATER TONIGHT. THOSE WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN OVER ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH PLAINS WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE ROCKIES. THIS IS THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING OUR RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF IT...CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO MID AMERICA...WITH RIBBON OF TROPICAL MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL RH AND PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN OR SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS HIGHER MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE MAXIMUM MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO AT LEAST AM EXPECTING A CLOUDY DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BY AFTERNOON. CORE OF UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE/JET SEGMENT ROUNDING BASE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SHOWERS/THUNDER FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014 DEEP MOISTURE ATTENDANT TO UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SETTLE ON A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IN SWINGING BULK OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY HIGH SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. BEYOND THURSDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BEYOND...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST BY MAJORITY OF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO FILL IN BEHIND AND REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND. SO A RETURN TO OUR MILD AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE LOOKS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS WITH 40S TO NEAR 50 FOR LOWS. && .AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...FOBERT

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