Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 041801 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 101 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 MORNING UPDATES MAINLY TO TWEAK HIGH CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. THICKER CIRRUS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FARTHER EAST THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKER AND THE MIXING NOT A STRONG...THUS LOWER AND MID 80S WILL BE MORE COMMON.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 TODAY RAP13 THIS MORNING DEPICTING DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL INDUCE UNORGANIZED SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN. INCREASE OF SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FORCE SLY WINDS TO KICK UP WITH DECENT BNDRY LYR MOISTURE ADV INTO THE REGION. BOTH HRRR/RAP13 INDICATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING FROM CNTRL SD TO WRN KS WHERE CAPPING WILL BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER...WITH CAP PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER STRONG...SUSPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE HINDERED FROM ENCROACHING THE WRN CWA. THUS WILL MAINTAIN GOING DRY FCST. AS FOR TEMPS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S PER BOTH MET/MAV LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW. TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT... GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PROBABLY WOULDN`T LINGER PAST 12Z SUNDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTS EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH...WHICH SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE. A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN. 06Z NAM SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN EVEN MORE AND THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. THUS ADJUSTED ONSET OF PRECIP CHANCES A LITTLE SLOWER SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST EVEN MORE IF OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE FRONT DOWN. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 PRECIP WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SOUTH OF I80 SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DRY. SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BACK IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS GFS REMAINS THE WETTER MODEL...WHILE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. && .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH 06Z. LATER TONIGHT...WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND IF IT MAKES IT INTO PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AT KOFK ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z...SO THIS MAY BE ADDED. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 8-12KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KOFK TONIGHT. STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS 12-16KTS AND GUSTY LATER SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY AFTER 15Z.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

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