Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 262040 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 240 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CU FIELD THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MINIMAL SNOW COVER WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET TONIGHT TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW AT TIMES...BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS BUT DRY. A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND BEGIN TO EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. STILL THINKING WE`LL SEE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 WITH POPS DIMINISHING AS YOU HEAD NORTH TOWARD THE NE/SD BORDER REGION...IN FACT THE NORTHERN EDGE MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH. WINDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVELY STRONG WITH THIS EVENT EITHER. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...A COUPLE OF INCHES ALONG I80...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA. SNOW TAPERS OFF AND ENDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015 TIMING OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY IS IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS BRINGING IN THE NEXT WAVE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF TILL MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD RESULT IN MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLOGENESIS AND THE OVERALL TIMING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ARCTIC PUSH BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THUS...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING OF PRECIP...PRECIP TYPE...AND TRANSITION BACK TO COLD CANADIAN AIR. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015 BRISK NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT ARE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z WITH A DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10KT BY 02Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR FL020 SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z...BUT COULD BRIEFLY GO BROKEN FOR A TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...DERGAN

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