Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 291712 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014 SENT OUT A MINOR UPDATE TO GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS EARLIER AND WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE BY 1230 PM. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT IN CEDAR AND KNOX COUNTIES. THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OMAHA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES MAY BE HELD DOWN UP A BIT.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014 SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY...HOW THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA...THEN TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF PRECIPITATION. OUR 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD INCREASED TO 1.16 INCHES PWAT WITH 656 J/KG CAPE AND LITTLE CIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RADAR ECHOES FOR PLACING ISOLATED POPS THIS MORNING...BUT EARLY MORNING RETURNS HAVE BEEN FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. LIGHTNING WAS MOSTLY CONCENTRATED IN CLUSTERS OVER THE BLACKHILLS AREA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND OVER PARTS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. THE UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A LARGE CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEVADA...A RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST...AND A MORE SHEARED OUT H5 TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE WAS ABUNDANT H7 MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES SOUTHWARD TO MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA...TO WHERE HURRICANE RACHEL IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. H85 MOISTURE OF 12-14DEG C WAS POOLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE H85 FRONT FROM MN INTO SD. TODAY...THERE IS SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE H5 CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST TO MONTANA/WYOMING/COLORADO...WITH THE H5 RIDGE SHARPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT NEAR SIOUX FALLS SOUTHWARD TOWARD SIOUX CITY...MEANWHILE...THE UPSLOPE FLOW IS INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 25 TO 30KTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULT OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND FOR THE SHOWERS TO LIFT NORTH NORTH OF ONEILL...WHILE THE SHOWERS CLOSER TO SIOUX CITY ARE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH THE CLOUD BEARING WINDS. THE LLJ WEAKENS AFTER 12Z TO 15KTS...SO LOOK FOR COVERAGE TO DECREASE. A FEW STORMS COULD THEN RE- FIRE WITH HEATING DURING THE DAY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT ISOLATED MENTION FOR SHRA/-TSRA IN FOR A FEW OF OUR NORTHERN PERIPHERY COUNTIES AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW FAR THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH THAT BACKDOOR FRONT AS THIS WOULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SD BORDER INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MAINLY BE 80 TO 85...HOWEVER MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER IN THE NORTH COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. 120M HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND TRACK INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY WITH THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COMBINED WITH H7 OMEGA...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS...SPREADING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY. INSTABILITY INCREASES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AND SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-45KT ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER FORCING QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAVORABLE AND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WINDS TO THE BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE TROF AND A POSSIBLY A THIRD WAVE THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EACH PASSING WAVE. THE HIGHER CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014 MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. && .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014 CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT THE TAF SITES INTO TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 09Z AT KOFK...BY 12Z AT KLNK AND BY 16Z AT KOMA.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MILLER SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...MILLER

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