Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 271727 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1227 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014 FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN LOCATION/TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ALONG WITH HEADLINES. THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD INCREASED TO 1.74 INCHES OF PWAT WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND 1000J/KG. AT 06Z...A LOOK AT THE WSR- 88D RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED THE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WAS IN THE UPSLOPE REGION OF THE WESTERN PLAINS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED ECHOES...LOCALLY. BY 08Z...CONVECTION HAD INCREASED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THIS WAS WHERE PWATS WERE THE HIGHEST ALONG WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY. THE 00Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED THE CLOSED H5 LOW OVER UTAH WITH SOME LEADING SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY IN COLORADO. H7 DEWPOINTS WERE POOLED OVER EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS...WITH SOME 4 DEG C DEWPOINTS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE H85 DEWPOINTS AT KOAX WAS 10...BUT 15 DEG C AT TOP. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE 60KT H3 JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. THERE IS SOME THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE BEST IS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/LARGE SCALE LIFT CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION...INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFTS NORTH AND EAST AFTER 06Z. WE ARE LACKING THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY IS WEAK...BUT INCREASES THIS MORNING THIS AFTERNOON. THE H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SLOWER TO EVOLVE AND LESS PRONOUNCED THAN FORECAST 24 HRS AGO...THUS PRECIPITATION EVOLVING SLOWER LOCALLY AND MORE FOCUSED TO THE WEST. CURRENTLY HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LAST WEEK AND WHERE 2 INCHES INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. ALTHOUGH SLOW TO DEVELOP...THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS DO INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLOODING...THE AIRMASS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THUS WILL LEAVE THE WATCH IN EFFECT. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS MULTIPLEROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL MAKE FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION. FORCING INCREASES THIS EVENING AND EXPANDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA CAN BE ASSESSED DEPENDING ON HOW THE MORNING ACTIVITY DEVELOPS. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTH INTO MINNESOTA...HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THE SURFACE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO STILL IN THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. FRIDAY...THE NAM IS THE ODD MODEL OUT...AS THE GFS/EC HOLD ON TO SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION...THUS HAVE KEPT THE RAIN MENTION IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLE...IN THE 70S/80S EACH DAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014 A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT SATURDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. THERE IS STILL SOME POCKETS OF MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. LIFT INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF AFFECTS THE AREA WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014 VARIABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SITES. DO EXPECT A BREAK IN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE RAIN AND THUNDER MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NE...NONE. IA...NONE.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...KERN

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