Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 292030 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 330 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 A RAINY AND COOL WEEKEND IS IN STORE. KEEP THOSE UMBRELLAS AND RAIN JACKETS HANDY. UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES HAD 50 TO 70 METER HEIGHT FALLS AND A 110 KNOT JET ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WIDESPREAD RAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO NORTHEAST KANSAS. INSTABILITY REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF I80 AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOMEWHAT DRY NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY INHIBIT THE RAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...BUT WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY SATURATE QUICKLY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING ALL AREAS TONIGHT AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS...COMBINED WITH EXIT REGION OF AN THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING OVERHEAD. THE INITIAL BAND OF RAIN/SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A DRY SLOT MAY HELP TO MAKE THE STEADIER RAIN BECOME MORE SHOWERY SOUTH OF OF I80 DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONTINUES PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THERE ALSO REMAINS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY SOUTH OF I80 DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY EVENING SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE A DEFORMATION BAND AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN BEGINS TO WANE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE OPENS AND RAPIDLY MOVES EAST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COMING IN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY COULD RANGE FROM 0.75 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST NE/SW IA...TO 2.5" IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SINCE THIS IS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THAT IS SPREAD OUT OVER A COUPLE OF DAYS...FEEL THAT WE CAN HANDLE IT OK DESPITE SOAKING RAINS LAST FEW DAYS. ALSO...IT SHOULD BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA...WITH SNOW JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES...BUT OPENING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES ON MONDAY. THIS COULD BRING SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE NE/KS BORDER REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS ALSO BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO ANOTHER WAVE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 NOT GREAT OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. ECMWF TAKES THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND MOVES IT SOUTHWEST OVER THE ROCKIES. THE GFS MEANWHILE MOVES IT INTO OUR AREA THEN QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION. BOTH MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WE FINALLY DRY OUT DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT FOR DIFFERENT REASONS. THUS...NO REAL CONFIDENCE IN THE DAYS 4-7 PERIOD RIGHT NOW. WILL KEEP MODEL BLENDS GOING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH/DEVELOPING FROM KANSAS IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS AND SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TOWARD 12Z...AND WILL NEED TO ASSESS THUNDER POTENTIAL AT KLNK AND KOMA. NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10KTS TO 20KTS AND GUSTY AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE EAST AT KLNK AND KOMA AT 35 TO 45KTS.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

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