Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 261721 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1221 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Slow moving mid-level cyclone that we have been dealing with for a couple of days is moving through eastern MO early this morning per WV imagery. The central and eastern CWA remain in an area of deformation around 700 mb though, and has resulted in some light showers or sprinkles this morning. Short term models indicate this trend may continue to around 14-15Z this morning and we will continue to mention this in the northeast CWA. The 07Z objective surface analysis indicated a ridge axis from western MN into central KS. Weak flow within this ridge axis will allow for the low clouds currently in place across the CWA to remain through the day today. Thus we have lowered highs a bit most areas. Early morning WV imagery also indicated that the next vigorous shortwave trough was moving through the 4-corners and into NM/CO. This is expected to quickly move across the central and southern Plains today. Although the bulk of the sensible weather associated with this system will stay to the south of our CWA, weak isentropic upglide into the southern FA may prove sufficient for some showers this evening into the overnight hours. Otherwise the clouds will continue to hang tough tonight over the FA. As this system passes to the east on Monday we may finally get enough flow to erode the clouds from northwest to southeast across the area, although confidence is not great. If clouds do clear we may see temperatures get back to near normals with highs in the mid and upper 50s. The next trough will be moving through the Great Basin and dropping into the southern Rockies during the day on Tuesday. The bulk of the CWA and day looks to be dry with easterly low to mid level flow keep some dry air feed and holding of precipitation for most of the day, but there remains some chance in the far west of some showers toward the end of the day. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Although there have been some changes in the models solutions over the last 24 hours with the GFS and the EC starting to trend toward a consensus, both global models still have significant differences for the mid to late week system. The EC/GEM continues to be a wetter and cooler pattern while the GFS now indicates some precipitation, it still takes the bulk of the system to the south of our FA. Confidence though is growing that rain is likely at some point during the WED/THU time frame. Forecaster confidence remains low though on amounts, duration, and exact placement. We will continue with high chance to likely pops in the WED/THU time frame though. In addition it appears that with the clouds and at least some light rain we will see below normal temperatures and we have lowered highs closer to the operational EC during this time as well. The active pattern continues after the mid week system though with another trough expected next weekend with a chance of rain and continued cool temperatures. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Mesoanalysis at 17z depicts surface lows over the northern TX panhandle and northwest IL with the forecast area in light north to northwest winds. Moisture wrapping around the IL cyclone is resulting in continued IFR ceilings which should gradually lift to MVFR (FL010-012) as the boundary layer deepens this afternoon. A weak inverted trough noted from KBIE-KOFK-KONL has been the focus for lingering fog, and visibilities in these locations should improve over the next couple of hours. The northeastward advance of the southern Plains cyclone will maintain a moist low-level air mass in place across the region with MVFR conditions prevailing through the remainder of the forecast period.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boustead LONG TERM...Boustead AVIATION...Mead

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