Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 251132 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 532 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015 INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE TYPE AND EXTENT OF PRECIP AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THEN COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SUBZERO WIND CHILLS APPROACHING CRITERIA THURSDAY MORNING. JUST PLAIN COLD FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOATA AT 08Z WITH PRIMARY BAND OF PRECIP FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP SLOWER IN BRINGING THE PRECIP SHIELD SOUTH TODAY WITH PRIMARY BAND STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE AND ALSO REMOVED THE TWO SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THERE FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH BETTER QPF EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA AND BACKED OFF FURTHER ON PRECIP AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AND DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI. A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP...WHICH COULD INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN...IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA BEFORE THE COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE. THE ARCTIC AIR SPREADS RAPIDLY SOUTH TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERN COUNTIES APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL COVER THE COLD IN HWO FOR NOW BUT ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY IN LATER FORECASTS. WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT. SLOW WARMING???? ON FRIDAY AS HIGH MOVES EAST. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015 LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL TRENDS. WEEKEND SYSTEM STILL KEEPS MAIN PRECIP AXIS TO THE SOUTH WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MAIN WAVE COMES INTO THE PLAINS REGION. && .AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 524 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015 SFC CDFNT WILL MOV SOUTHEAST THRU ALL 3 TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING ALONG WITH GUSTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF -RA AT KOFK/KLNK AND A MIX OF RA/SN AT KOMA. SOME MVFR VISBY IS POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT KOMA WITH THE MIX. WE DO EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT ALL 3 SITES FROM LATE MRNG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LIFTING TO VFR OVERNIGHT.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015- 034. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055- 056. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ069.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

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