Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 040845 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 345 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 WARM TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS TRIGGERING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS A GOOD PART OF NEBRASKA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL. ISOLATED CELLS WERE POPPING UP HERE IN THE EAST AS WELL. EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH SUPPORT OF SEVERAL SHORT RANGE HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA WILL SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN/DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS FARTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS MAY HINDER WARMING A BIT THIS MORNING...BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND A RELATIVELY WARM START SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WILL AGAIN BE REALIZED. LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHWEST U.S. BEGINS TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR WA/OR/ID BORDER...KEEPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS. AGAIN LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO IGNITE ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT. LAYER THETA-E PROFILES POINT TO A SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LINE FOR BEST PRECIP CHANCES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON...WITH CONVECTION AGAIN WANING AS LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES. LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN UNCHANGED AS WELL...SO HIGHS AGAIN AT OR ABOVE 90 ARE FORECAST. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NORTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LOWERING HEIGHTS IN THE PLAINS. SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL PERSIST NEAR THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SATURDAY WILL FINALLY BEGIN A PUSH SOUTHEAST...REACHING EASTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR ALOFT OVER SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...AND WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION IGNITING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE-BASED CAPES SHOULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY WITH BULK 0-6KM SHEAR OVER 30KT...SUGGESTING SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. EXACT TIMING OF FRONT AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE PROFILE IS STILL IN QUESTION REGARDING SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN OUR AREA AS MODELS CURRENTLY KEEP BETTER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE JUST TO OUR NORTH. BUT STILL A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 CONVECTION TIED TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THIS FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUR SOUTHEAST CWA BY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROLLING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL INDUCE A QUICK RETURN FLOW SCENARIO ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTER THAT WAVE PASSES MONDAY NIGHT...A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW OVERRUNNING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THEN WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR. HAVE HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THE MOST PART ON MONDAY...DROPPING INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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&& .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY SKIM BY KOFK OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...KERN

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