Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 150306 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1006 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014 A COMBINATION OF AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF...EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD 0.76 PWAT...HOWEVER KTOP HAD 1.24...SO NOT QUITE A HIGH AS FORECAST. SHOWERS WILL VARY FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND SHOULD GENERALLY BE MOVING OUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014 EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDC A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTNDG FM SE MN SWWD INTO NRN NEB. THIS FNT WILL MOV SEWD THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER ERN MT PER AFTN WV IMAGERY/ MOVS SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE PLAINS CONTS TO BE LIMITED...AND BELOW SOME FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED ON THE 12Z RAOBS FROM KDNR/KLBF. THIS MAKES CONVECTIVE COVERAGE A BIT UNCERTAIN OVERNIGHT. 12Z NAM/GFS POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEVER COMPLETELY REMOVE THE MUCIN OVERNIGHT. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING /ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA/ AS THE SHRTWV NEARS AND THIS...ALONG WITH PERSISTENT UPGLIDE ON THE 305 K ISENTROPIC SFC WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A VERY SLOW INCREASE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY LATE EVNG. NEAR OR JUST AFTERNOON MIDNIGHT SOME CAMS DO INDC CI TAKING PLACE...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE MO RIVER AND WILL CENTER OUR HIGHEST POPS NEAR THIS TIME AND OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FA WHERE THE MOISTURE PROFILE ARE THE DEEPEST ALLOWING FOR THE WEAKEST MUCIN. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR FA ON MON MRNG WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE FA FOR MON/MON NIGHT. THIS AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR AS CHILLY AS THE ONE ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AND FROST DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ON MON NIGHT...BUT SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SIMILAR TO SAT MRNG. THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE FA ON TUE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN INCREASING. MODELS...NAMELY THE GFS/GEM...INDC SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN BY TUE NIGHT FOR SOME ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS APPEARS TO BE A BIT OVERDONE BUT WE WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF OUR SCHC POPS TUE NIGHT LIMITING THEM TO GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF I80 AND WAIT FOR BETTER AGREEMENT TO INCREASE. ANY CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO WED MRNG BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014 GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA ON FRI NIGHT/SAT MRNG. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR THU/FRI WITH TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 80 BY FRI. WILL INCREASE THE POPS FOR THE FRI NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH THE MODELS INCDG MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE FA ON SAT MRNG WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SAT AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014 VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 04-07Z. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 11-16Z. COULD BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE RAIN...BUT SHOULD SCATTERED BACK TO VFR BY 15-17Z. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS INITIALLY...THEN BECOMING EAST...NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ALSO INCREASE TO ABOVE 12 KNOTS BY 11-12Z...AND COULD SEE GUSTS BY THEN UP TO 18 KNOTS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD AVIATION...DEWALD

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