Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 230443 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1143 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH WRN NEBR PER EARLY AFTN SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS KICKING OFF AN INCREASING CONVECTIVE BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT 20Z...FM NEAR WAYNE TO JUST WEST THEN SW OF COLUMBUS. STRONGER ACTIVITY WAS IN ADVANCE OF A COOL FRONT THAT WAS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES...OR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH...E THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT AS STRONGER UPPER ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. PER HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC/HRRR CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE SPREAD FROM W TO EAST THROUGH THE FA THIS EVENING WITH SOME TRAILING REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING NEAR FRONT KEEPING POPS IN FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER AFTER INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND PASSES. WITH ALL OF THE PRECIP AND ASSOCD CLOUDS MOVING INTO OR EVEN EAST OF FAR SERN ZONES BY MORNING...CLEARING SKIES...RESIDUAL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND COULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AND AREAS OF SUCH WERE MAINTAINED. THE REST OF SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY. A TRAILING WAVE ON THURSDAY COULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND WITH WEAK WINDS...MIXING COULD BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD EITHER BE EARLY ...LINGERING BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM SE...OR ARRIVING LATER IN THE AFTN WITH THIS NEXT WAVE. ALSO AIRMASS SEEMS WARM ENOUGH THAT HIGHS NEAR 70/LOWER 70S SHOULD AT LEAST BE OBSERVED PER NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS MIXING ONLY TO NEAR 900 MB AT KOMA. WARM ADVECTION INCREASES LATE THU INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH BULK OF SUCH WOULD APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST ACROSS THE FA WHICH COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS IF CIRRUS IS THICK ENOUGH...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FRIDAY BEING QUITE MILD. SWRLY FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND SOME MID/LOWER CLOUDS THU NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH LITTLE OR NO COOL ADVECTION FRIDAY AS WAVE TRAVELS ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS BETTER MOST AREAS. WEAK COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE AND N/NERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE REGION. STILL APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL REACH AT LEAST LOWER 70S PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS NOT MUCH MIXING WAS NEEDED TO REACH THAT LEVEL. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY STRONG...COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE ON SATURDAY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY AND COULD KEEP HIGHS ON SUNDAY NEAR SATURDAYS LEVEL. LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE FROM EARLIER FORECAST/MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...IF FLOW TURNS MORE SWRLY OR EVEN SRLY COULD SEE NEED FOR BOOSTS IN LATER FORECASTS. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WITH NEXT TROUGH CROSSING THE PLAINS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH BOTH 12Z RUNS GENERATED LITTLE PRECIP ACROSS OUR FA. DID MENTION SLGT CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS APPARENT CURRENT SMALL CHANCE. ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE FA...BUT COOL ADVECTION WAS DELAYED SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A LITTLE WARMER READINGS...SPCLY SE...ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. AS VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS SLIDE EAST...AN EXPANDING AREA OF FOG WILL SPREAD EAST AS WELL. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW LOW TO GO IN REGARDS TO CIGS/VISIBILITIES AT OUR TAF SITES...HOWEVER LIGHT WIND AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER EVENING RAIN WILL WARRANT SOME MENTION. WILL LEAVE TO AMENDMENTS IF CONDITIONS DROP BELOW IFR OR BECOME LIFR.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHERMOK LONG TERM...CHERMOK AVIATION...KERN

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