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843
FXUS63 KOAX 101032
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
532 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms continue across the area this
  morning. Expect the storms to take a break before redeveloping
  later this afternoon or evening.

- Severe storms remain possible on Friday afternoon and evening,
  too.

- Temperatures cool slightly on Saturday before warming up
  Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Water vapor imagery reveals a flattened ridge over the Four
Corners region and quasi-zonal flow over the Intermountain West.
A significant shortwave has lead to two separate MCSs combining
into one line of storms over this CWA. This resultant QLCS has
been producing severe gusts over the past hour or two as it
pushes into an airmass with more buoyancy. Still, it continues
south and east and is pushing past the borders of this forecast
area.

Also of note is the thunderstorm complex just south of the
Elkhorn River in north-central Nebraska where guidance has
consistent indicated thunderstorm development (check) and a
drifting east over the morning hours (check). That may bring
enough cloud-cover to play (temporary) spoiler for Thursday`s
convection.

.THIS AFTERNOON and TONIGHT...

Global guidance and CAMs still produce convection tonight in
what`s looking like another unstable atmosphere (SFC CAPE
2500-4000 J/kg). Hodographs, representing veering winds, look
capable of producing supercells capable of large hail or a
tornado early in the event.

Regardless as to whether there are supercells ahead of the lee
trof / shortwave, the significant forcing for ascent should be
enough to initiate or expand coverage as storms grow upscale and
the primary threat transitions to wind gusts. These storms will
also produce heavy rain. WPC has issued a slight (15%) risk for
excessive rainfall later tonight with the forecast development
of a convective complex that pushes out of Nebraska and into
Iowa. PWAT values of 1.5" will be common as southwesterly flow
at H8 and H7 continue to pump moisture into the complex as it
treks east late Thursday eve. Rainfall totals of 2-3" are
possible, with best chances in western Iowa (10%).

.FRIDAY...

Thunderstorms are possible again on Friday with CAPE forecast to
be high again (2,000 to 3,000 J/kg). Confidence in placement is
low thanks to Thursday`s convection leaving boundaries strewn
about. An H5 low should provide enough forcing for ascent to
produce likely PoPs (50-80%). Expect highs (mostly 80s) to be a
couple degrees cooler than today.

.THE WEEKEND...

Dry northwesterly flow at H5 sets the stage for an easy
opportunity to get outdoors. Saturday looks pleasant with highs
another step cooler (lower 80s) under partly cloudy skies and
northerly winds of 5-15 mph. Sunday will be a bit warmer thanks
to the southerly return flow.

The next best chance of precipitation looks to be on Tuesday
night as a surface low ejects out of the desert southwest and
brings 50% PoPs to the CWA as it pushes northeast. Pattern
recognition already points to a flash flood threat with this
approaching system.

This surface low will conspire with a positively tilted
H5 trof working along the US/Canadian border to help change the
overall pattern and allow cooler air to filter in from the
north. By mid-week, highs are forecast to peak only in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 526 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

VFR conditions are favored this morning before precipitation
chances increase this afternoon. Southerly winds will increase
above 12 kts by the afternoon, with midday gusts up to 25 kts.
Precipitation chances through the period remain a bit uncertain.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible (20%
chance) through 19Z, with low confidence in their coverage.

A chance for strong to severe storms moves in late in the
afternoon and into the evening. Confidence is highest in
impacts at KOFK by 23-02Z, though this time may be refined with
future issuances. Confidence in timing and impacts at KOMA and
KLNK remain low at this time and will be refined in future TAF
issuances.
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&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Wood