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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KOAX 132320
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
620 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE OF WAVES ROLLING INTO THE PLAINS AFFECTING
BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE FIRST WAVE WAS
MOVING OUT OF MONTANA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A COOL FRONT WAS NOTED IN THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS...AND IS SCHEDULED TO SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY HAS DRIVEN TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

THESE RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAD TO RELATIVELY MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME BOTTOMING OUT OF TEMPERATURES
IS POSSIBLE AS WINDS DIMINISH AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STILL LOOKING
AT LOWS IN THE 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL
PROVIDE WEAK COOL ADVECTION...BUT ALSO MODEST MIXING UP TO 800MB AS
PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS MIXING AND SUNSHINE SHOULD OFFSET WEAK
COOLING TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE SWEEPING INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS ONE WILL BE SHARPER THAN THE ONE TONIGHT...AND
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. AHEAD OF IT...SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN BRING MILD TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL INTO THE
LOWER 30S OR UPPER 20S BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN BY SATURDAY
MORNING. SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY COMBINED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 60S IN OUR SOUTH BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE
AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS FORECAST BEHIND
THIS FRONT...BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTH AND THE REST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

WHILE THERE COULD BE LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT BEHIND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BETTER CHANCES COME AS MID LEVEL
WAVE SWINGS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEST MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
POINTS TO BEST LIFT ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHERE Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND OMEGA ARE MAXIMIZED...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIQUID SATURDAY EVENING WITH COOLING
ATMOSPHERE CHANGING PRECIP TO SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET BEFORE WARM WEDGE ALOFT WET BULBS TO SUB
FREEZING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND WITH FAST-MOVING
SYSTEM...DO NOT EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MORE THAN AN INCH OR
SO...WITH THAT MAXIMUM IN OUR NORTHEAST.

SOME LINGERING SNOW OR RAIN IN THE EAST IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THERMAL TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE CWA WHERE 850
TEMPS DROP TO 4 TO 8 BELOW AND SURFACE WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST. THIS PATTERN IS A COLD ONE FOR OUR AREA...SO DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MORE THAN ABOUT 10 OR 15 DEGREES FROM MORNING
LOWS. HAVE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES. THAT TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AT MID
WEEK...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MID
RANGE MODELS. GFS IS QUICKEST...MOVING TROUGH INTO OUR AREA
TUESDAY...WITH ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER GFS HAS A
SECONDARY WAVE THAT MIMICS TIMING OF ECMWF AS WELL. SO BOTH MODELS
SUGGEST THERE IS REASON FOR PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT COULD
START AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AS PER FASTER GFS. RAIN/SNOW LINE WITH
EACH PRECIP CHANCE LOOKS TO ALIGN WITH DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES...FAVORING SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN DURING THE
DAY. WHATEVER THE CASE...NOT LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW AT THE MOMENT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL START MILD MONDAY WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 50S OR 60S AHEAD OF FIRST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
CLOUDS/PRECIP TUESDAY AND COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 40S THOSE DAYS...BUT WE COULD
SNEAK OUT ANOTHER MILD DAY TUESDAY IF ECMWF TIMING WINS OUT. SOME
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN ISSUES ARE WIND AND
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING BUT LLWS IS EXPECTED AS WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR KOMA AND KLNK. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LLWS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD GUST TO OVER
25 KNOTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ016-030-031-
     042-043-050-065-066-078-088>090-092.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MILLER