Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 190328 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1028 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016 .SHORT TERM...(tonight through Friday) Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016 A small chance for showers Wednesday or Wednesday night, then cooler temperatures gradually warming Friday, are the primary forecast concerns. Surface high pressure settling into the Plains this afternoon has kept mostly sunny skies and light northwest winds across our part of the country. Temperatures at mid afternoon were mainly in the 60s with a few lower 70s noted. Scattered clouds in northeast Nebraska and west central Iowa displayed a cellular look on satellite, and are expected to dissipate around sunset. Meanwhile at mid levels, broad trough was sliding into the Rockies with a 100-120kt 300mb jet extending from Utah into eastern South Dakota and the Great Lakes region. Mid level trough is forecast to drift into the Plains on Wednesday with trough axis shifting just east of our area by 12Z Thursday. Mid level warm advection ahead of axis is forecast to commence in western Nebraska this evening, then spread across eastern Nebraska on Wednesday, and eventually southwest Iowa Wednesday afternoon and evening. Layer moisture will be somewhat limited with forecast soundings showing scant moisture below 850 through Wednesday night. However moisture in 850 to 500 layer will be sufficient to squeeze out scattered showers as upward motion is maximized beginning in the morning in northeast Nebraska, then spreading southeast across the rest of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa by the afternoon. Any precipitation should be east or southeast of southwest Iowa by 12Z Thursday. Otherwise we should be seeing cooler temperatures Wednesday and Thursday as Canadian air spills into the region, characterized by 850 temperatures dropping from 8-11C this afternoon to 2-4C by Thursday afternoon. Clouds and precipitation will help halt warming on Wednesday as well. Have highs Wednesday still in the 60s, with 50s expected Thursday. A return to rising mid level heights and light southerly low level flow by Friday suggests highs back into the 60s then. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016 Our rather tranquil weather pattern is forecast to continue this weekend into early next week with little if any precipitation chances. Broad mid level ridging is forecast to dominate the middle of the country at least into Monday night before southwest flow sets up in the High Plains Tuesday. We could see an impulse ride into our area then, promoting warm advection shower chance. But the main weather story Saturday through Tuesday will be generally clear skies and high temperatures mainly between 65 and 75 on average. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle, with light and variable winds becoming northerly at around 5 kt this afternoon. Should see ceilings lower from cirrus to mid-levels (around 10-15kft) this afternoon at KOFK. Potential for showers around KOFK remains low confidence, with some models dry, some producing showers in the area in the afternoon to evening, and some producing showers in the evening to overnight. Have left mention out of KOFK for now, given the uncertainty, but would think showers would still be in VFR range of visibility and ceilings.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dergan LONG TERM...Dergan AVIATION...Mayes is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.