Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 230517 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1117 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014 THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TONIGHT AND RESULTANT FOG AND LOW CLOUD RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL?...SECONDARY BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND FLURRIES/CHC LIGHT SNOW WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR FOR MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH WINDS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S WERE COMMON LOCALLY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE BANK OF STRATUS HAS BEEN ERODING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S. EVEN 50S WERE NOTED IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA UNDER THE STRATUS. ONE STORM SYSTEM IS PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM...IT WILL PULL DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE...LIGHT RAIN AND SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WINDSHIFT/COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z AND IS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WITH WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...6.5-7 DEG C/KM WITH OMEGA INCREASING. SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH AND THE SREF HAS A 5-10% PROB FOR PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW POPS WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AND MAY INCLUDE A FEW HOURS FOR THE SPOTTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE HAS BEEN THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER IDAHO...SO DID INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FRONTOGENETIC BAND AND CAN FURTHER REFINE POPS AS NEEDED. MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD ALL RAIN...HOWEVER COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO HAVE A RAIN SNOW MIX. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. SUNDAY NIGHT...REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVES IN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. ADDED FLURRIES AND ALSO COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH COLDER HIGHS IN THE 30S. FOR NOW HAVE WINDS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014 TUESDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION. COLD HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS FOR FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF SOMEWHAT FOR SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014 CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED BY 11-13Z AT KOFK...14-17Z AT KLNK/KOMA. UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS...AND COULD BECOME IFR WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AT KLNK/KOMA BY 09Z THAT LINGERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. SOUTH WINDS 8-14 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FROPA...AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 28 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY 22-24Z.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...DEWALD

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