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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 262324
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
524 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

DOMINATE FEATURE THIS AFTN PER SATL PIX IS WELL AMPLIFIED/STAGNANT
UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS FORMING INTO A REX BLOCKING
PATTERN. MEANWHILE VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT NO ACTIVE WX TO CONTEND WITH THE NEXT SEVERALS
DAYS ALONG WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...HIGHS AROUND 60 WEST/LOW
50S EAST...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A NOTICEABLE CHANGE THOUGH COMING WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE REALIZES
WHEN SFC LOW MOVING INTO THE OH/TN VLYS DRAGS A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF THE
CAA...MAX IN THE LOW 40S WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING POSSIBLE PCPN EARLY NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT CANADIAN AIRMASS INTRUSION INTO THE LOWER 48.
HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A WIDE DISCREPANCY AMONGST THE ECM/GFS/CMC WITH
RESPECT TO SFC FEATURES...TIMING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
PROBLEMATIC AT BEST WITH METEOGRAMS ILLUSTRATING THIS WELL. CMC
PROJECTS THE BNDRY INTO THE OMAHA METRO AROUND 12Z SAT...GFS 06Z
SUN...ECM 12Z SUN. GIVEN ALL THIS...AM CONTENT WITH FOLLOWING
SUPERBLEND WITH THE FROPA BTWN 12Z-18Z SAT. AS FOR PCPN...THERE IS
GENERAL AGREEMENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE
SRN CWA FRI NIGHT/SAT TIME FRAME. THUS WILL CONFINE SMALL POPS TO
THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KERN

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office