Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KOAX 270452 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1152 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015 ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS IN THE WEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED BEHIND THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TOWARD NEB. 850MB ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW IN WESTERN ONT...WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS MN/CENTRAL NEB TOWARD NM...AND WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -5 TO -10C SPILLING INTO THE DAKOTAS/MN. PRECIPITATION /SOME RAIN AND SOME SNOW/ HAD SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE MILDER WEATHER RETURNS. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRECIP...WITH LIGHT RAIN ABLE TO TURN TO LIGHT SNOW BASED ON WEBCAMS...BUT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION NOTED SO FAR. HAVE KEPT MAINLY RAIN MENTION FOR SOUTHERN CWA 00-03Z...AS TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 50F RIGHT NOW AND WOULD HAVE TO FALL A WAYS FOR SNOW...AND THINK PRECIP WILL LARGELY BE OUT OF THE CWA BY AROUND 03Z. ONCE PRECIP EXITS...THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE STREAM SHOULD SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST. HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD GIVEN WEAK MIXING AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. AFTER SKIRTING INTO NORTHEAST NEB IN THE AFTERNOON...PRECIP SHOULD FOLLOW A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH THE MO RIVER BY AROUND 00Z SATURDAY...SLIDING EAST OF THE RIVER THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AND OUT OF THE AREA. WITH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIMING...AND COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES...PRECIP TYPE SHOULD INCLINE MORE TOWARD SNOW AFTER AN EARLY RAIN/SNOW MIX POTENTIAL...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ALONG/EAST OF THE MO RIVER. ON SATURDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES INTO THE AREA. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS AND SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA...WITH A WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015 MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE DAYS FOR FIRE POTENTIAL...BUT OTHERWISE...WEATHER WILL REMAIN BENIGN. BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE GEM FALLING BETWEEN THE TWO. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING PRECIPITATION...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION FOR NOW AND JUST INCLUDE SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL CONSISTENCY IS BETTER ESTABLISHED. THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL /THOUGH LESS SO/ FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015 VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY...WHICH COULD BRING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO KOMA 01-05Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MAYES LONG TERM...MAYES AVIATION...DEWALD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.