Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 162357 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 557 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 249 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014 DOUBLE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A NEW TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING DOWN THE MISSOURI VALLEY HAS ALLOWED SOME CLEARING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY...BUT CLOUDS TO THE WEST STILL HOLDING STRONG. STILL BELIEVE WE MAY SEE CONTINUED THINNING OF THESE CLOUDS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A SCATTERED- BROKEN DECK OF MID CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE ADVANCING SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...CONTINUING THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING TO FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME CONCERN HOW FAR NORTH THE NORTHERN EDGE CAN DEVELOP GIVEN INCREASINGLY DRY AIR. ALSO SOME CONCERN THAT IT MAY TAKE LONGER TO SATURATE IN WESTERN IOWA THUS CUTTING POTENTIAL AMOUNTS THERE. LOOKING UP TO ONE HALF INCH ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES...AND HALF INCH TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES ELSEWHERE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT LESS THAN 10 MPH SO NO MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERNS...OTHER THAN IT WILL BE LIKELY BE SNOWING IN THE OMAHA/LINCOLN METRO AREAS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING RUSH. DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW RETURNING TO THE SOUTH...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 249 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014 AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE ANOTHER VERY WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY MEAGER...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHICH IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SOONER THAN THE GFS. GENERALLY PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS HERE GIVEN NO STRONG UPSTREAM KICKER...THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON PRECIP MENTION UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. BY THIS TIME...SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS UP WITH JUST A MENTION OF RAIN...WHICH MAY END AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 547 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014 MVFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK AND KLNK ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR CEILINGS AFTER 17/04Z AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY RETURN BY 17/12Z AT KOFK.MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS OF 100OVC TO 150OVC WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...SMITH

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