Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 302332 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 632 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014 DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS CU FIELD DISSIPATES WITH SUNSET. THERE IS A VERY WEAK/SUBTLE WAVE JUST NOW BEGINNING TO CROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND THIS FEATURE BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVING OUT OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST AREA ON EARLY FRIDAY. ALL MODEL SUITES SEEM TO TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED 20 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO INCREASE TO 30/40 AS IT GETS CLOSER. SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014 DRY WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NE/SD BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...WHILE THE GFS IS GENERALLY DRY. KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN COMES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVING OUT OF CANADA FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. HAVE 30/40 PERCENT POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A MINOR WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW APPROACHING FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHICH THE MODELS BRING INTO THE KOFK AREA AROUND 17Z. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT SO ADDED VCSH TO THE KOFK TAF AND WILL NOT GO ANY STRONGER FOR NOW. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...MEYER

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