Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 202016 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 316 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Warm and very windy conditions this afternoon with surface winds just below advisory criteria. Wind gusts this past hour have reached 30 to 40 mph, and this will continue for another few hours late this afternoon. When the sun goes down around 635 pm, we should lose the high end of the wind gustiness, but sustained southerly winds overnight still remain high at 20 to 28 mph. Next concern overnight will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as the first southern-latitude trough, now exiting the TX panhandle, moves into the region. Moisture will be increasing tonight, along with a slight increase in the low level jet. Latest ESRL HRRR/Operational HRRR/Rap suggest that most of the evening should be dry, so Friday night football games will probably not be affected. However, by 04-05z, convection chance should increase, eventually reaching 40-60% across the central part of the CWA in a SW/NE corridor through daybreak. Overnight lows remain very mild lower to mid 60s. Whatever convection develops overnight could be lingering in the morning as it lifts northeast of the area. At the same time, the cold front will begin moving in from the northwest, which will help trigger additional showers/rumbles of thunder from northwest to southeast through the day. Cold front crosses the MO river by 19-20z, and should begin to clear the forecast area to the east by 22-01z. SPC has the extreme southeastern FA in a slight risk of severe storms with wind the primary hazard. Thus, while there will instability over the area tomorrow with a 40-80% chance of showers and storms, right now, the best severe threat appears to be setting up southwest IA and a handful of counties in southeast NE, but a higher threat of severe just east and southeast of our counties. Precip should clear the forecast area altogether in the early evening. Return southerly flow sets up quickly behind the front for Sunday, but another cold front arrives by daybreak Monday, which shifts our winds back to the northwest. Dry weather for both Sunday and Monday with near normal highs in the mid to upper 60s. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Colder air behind the previously mentioned front settles in for Tuesday, with much below normal highs in the mid to upper 50s. A brief slight warmup occurs on Wednesday with temps back to the mid to upper 60s. However, another sharp cold front arrives early Thursday. This brings a small chance of rain to the forecast area, with h85 temps making a strong push for below zero values by daybreak Friday. If any precip lingers south of I80 early Friday morning, it could end as rain/snow mix with H85 well below zero. Sharply colder temps into the area for Friday with Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Gusty south winds are expected at all sites today, continuing into tonight. MVFR ceilings are likely after midnight as showers move into the area. There may be embedded thunder tonight, but confidence on coverage is too low to mention until closer to morning at KOMA, then in the late morning at KOMA/KLNK. A wind shift to northwesterly will move into the sites late in the TAF period, with winds remaining gusty. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DeWald LONG TERM...DeWald AVIATION...Mayes

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