Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 180843 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 343 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(today through Thursday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016 Forecast concerns will be any patchy fog in southwest Iowa early this morning then cloudcover/sprinkles? behind a reinforcing cool front today... then shower and isolated thunderstorm chances Wednesday and Wednesday night. The 12Z OAX H7 temperature was so warm Monday, it was a daily max of all OAX soundings since 1948 with 14 deg. C. The previous daily max was 12.6 degrees C. Omaha Eppley ended up breaking the daily maximum temperature for 10/17 with 85 degrees while Lincoln was degree short from the record with 84. By 00Z, the h85 thermal trough had shifted southeast and extended from the Texas Panhandle northeast to northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. 15 deg C. h85 dewpoints were pooled ahead of this area, with a trailing area of higher dewpoints ahead of the secondary h85 boundary near SUX into southern MN. Early this morning, per the WSR-88D mosaic, post-frontal showers and thunderstorms were closer to the mid level support across the Dakotas into the Great Lakes. The clouds and higher dewpoints will be a little more challenging with the reinforcing cold front pushing through...affecting parts of the forecast area. Will consider patchy fog in southwest Iowa. Also will increase clouds this morning and early afternoon for parts of the cwa. Highs should top out in the lower 60s to the lower 70s. The h85-h7 frontogenesis increases to our south along the theta-e axis where the deep moisture resides over Missouri. Best chance for precip will be to our south and toward the eastern Great Lakes...although there may be a few sprinkles in northeast Nebraska per the HRRR. The storm system affecting the Pacific Northwest moves into the Plains late tonight into Wednesday night. All the short-range models are in good agreement with forcing for ascent as the shortwave trough deepens within the longwave trough as is pushes through the Missouri River Valley. 80m ht falls are associated with the wave moving through the Great Lakes and 20 to 40m ht falls are progged to be associated with the wave over Nebraska/Iowa Wednesday increasing to 80-120m ht falls Wednesday night over Kansas and Missouri. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in northeast Nebraska Wednesday gradually shift southeast across the forecast area Wednesday night. It should be mainly dry and cooler Thursday. Highs Wednesday in the upper 50s to upper 60s and in the 50s Thursday. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016 Dry and warmer Friday into the weekend as the h5 ridge amplifies into the Plains. The dry weather should last into Monday save for a spotty shower that may try to develop ahead of a cold front that arrives Tuesday. Highs each day should be above normal in the 60s and 70s.
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016 Visibility has dropped to MVFR at KOFK in a band from northeast NE into southeast SD, but guidance is only just picking up on the signal there. It still suggests visibilities stay above 6SM at KOMA/KLNK, but am concerned that there may be at least a temporary vis restriction. Left out mention at KOMA/KLNK for now. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle. Light winds will become northwesterly but remain under 10kt, with wind shear possible at all sites through daybreak.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Zapotocny LONG TERM...Zapotocny AVIATION...Mayes is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.