Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 291120 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 620 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 216 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016 Departing upper level shortwave to our northeast will leave nearly zonal flow in it`s wake allowing fairly quiet conditions for a short time period. At the surface this morning, a broad area of high pressure was present to our southeast with a very weak/broad area of low pressure across the High Plains. With little in the way of upper level forcing, a few scattered showers were sliding east across Nebraska but this activity continues to dissipate as it moves east. Low level warm air advection expected throughout the day with modest mixing to allow temps to max out in the lower to mid 80s this afternoon. Main question for later today is if any scattered convection can develop and if so, where? Main focus seems to be along an east/west low level boundary extending across northern Nebraska by this afternoon. Other potential storms could develop in response to shortwave energy over central Kansas and spread north into southeastern Nebraska through the evening. Fairly low forecaster confidence in either of these scenarios so have broad brushed slight chance pops and hopefully we can refine this throughout the day. A northern stream trough will move into the Northern Plains sending a fairly strong cold front into our area overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorm expected along this boundary Monday night into Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 216 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016 The above mentioned Northern Plains shortwave will continue to slide east into Wednesday morning allowing continued cold air advection across the Central Plains. Dry conditions will follow with surface high pressure building overhead on Wednesday. Region will be under northwest flow aloft into the weekend as an amplified ridge builds across the western CONUS. Temperatures should remain slightly cooler than normal through the extended with mostly dry conditions except on Saturday along a weak front. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 12Z Monday) Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016 Generally look for VFR conditions through the period. Mid clouds will be around this morning then should move east of the area or thin out. Light winds this morning will become south or southwest today mainly under 12 knots. Some fog is possible late tonight... but only mentioned at KOFK for now. Any thunderstorm activity is expected to be too isolated to mention in this set of TAFs. && .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kern LONG TERM...Kern AVIATION...Miller

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