Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 292312 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 612 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014 MODELS FOR THE MOST PART APPEAR TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN RESPONSE TO LIFTING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE TROF. IMPRESSIVE 500MB HGT FALLS AROUND 100M ARE PROGGED TONIGHT AHEAD OF VERY POTENT VORT MAX AS IT EJECTS OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS AND INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BEFORE TIGHT CIRCULATION AND SFC REFLECTION REACHES SD ON TUESDAY. WARM SECTOR PCPN IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INVOF THE NEB PANHANDLE THEN EXPAND EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIRES ARW/NMM ADVERTISE ACTIVITY REACHING OUTSKIRTS OF THE WRN CWA SOMETIME SHORTLY AFT 12Z. MODELS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE NRN CWA INVOF TRIPLE POINT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW IN SD...AND SHOULD BE PRIME LOCATION FOR SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TUES AFTN. THUS AREA INCLUDED IN SPC DAY2 SLGT OUTLOOK. BY WED AFTN...REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN EXPECTED AS COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CWA. TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONTAL BNDRY SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE OMAHA METRO SOMETIME LATE WED EVENING. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE BNDRY TO TAP INTO...AND APPEARS THAT GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE REALIZED MAINLY OVER THE SERN CWA BY THUR MORNING. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THEN THUR AFTN WHEN SECONDARY SHOT OF CAA FILTERING IN SHOVES COLD FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014 PCPN CHANCES THRU THE EXTENDED PDS APPEAR TO BE RATHER SMALL AT BEST THUS ONLY ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS TEMPS. GENERAL AGREEMENT UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL NUDGE CNTRL CONUS TROF EWD TO INTO THE ERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THUS WARMING TREND ON TAP GOING FROM LOW/MID 60S ON FRI TO LOW/MID 70S NEXT SUN/MON. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014 A DISTURBANCE OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD SEND A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME WEAKENING POSSIBLY BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT TO THE MISSOURI RIVER BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THUS THE PREVAILING TSTM MENTION WITH THE 00Z TAFS AT KOFK AND KLNK AND THE TEMPO GROUP FOR KOMA. REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WAS HANDLED WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT THIS TIME. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...CHERMOK

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