Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 271100 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 600 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE MOST PART WITH SAME GENERAL CONCERNS OF TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES. STRONGEST AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING WITH IR LOOP SHOWING WARMING TOPS ACROSS NEBRASKA. LATEST RAP DECREASES AND ENDS CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING WITH CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BACK TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME LINGERING SLIGHT POPS FAR SOUTHEAST TUESDAY EVENING THEN DRY BY LATE TUEDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BUT HEAT INDEX EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA SO NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HANG ON OVER THE AREA UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA STILL FEELING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 EXTENDED MODELS MAINTAIN GENERAL TRENDS FROM PAST RUNS AS UPPER HIGH CENTER RETROGRADES WEST AND TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EAST. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC CHANGE OF STORMS. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A NARROW BAND OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VISBY EXTENDS ACROSS NE NEB AND IS IMPACTING KOFK...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED WITH VFR CONDS BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS LIKELY AT KOFK/KLNK WITH SOME SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS /AOA FLO120 FT/ FOR ALL SITES. THERE IS SOME THREAT OF RA VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE TO LOW CURRENTLY TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

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