Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 231130 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 630 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014 ...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES... DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SHOULD DEAMPLIFY AND BECOME RELATIVELY FLAT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR A MINOR SHORTWAVE TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA. THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A COUPLE OF AREAS OF SHEARED VORTICITY MOVING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO IDAHO...WHICH SHOULD END UP BEING THE SHORTWAVE THAT DROPS DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS PER THE 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL BE SOMEWHAT DRY UNTIL RETURN FLOW CAN BE ESTABLISHED ON THURSDAY. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE MOST MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION... TRIGGERED BY SHORTWAVE...OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GENERALLY WE THINK THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL BE TOO DRY AND STABLE TO SUPPORT THIS...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT POPS LOW OR DRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME MENTION ONLY IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE IS INCREASED SUPPORT FOR RAIN CHANCES DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH...AND QUICK RETURN OF HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THIS COMBINED WITH VERTICAL MOTION FROM APPROACHING FRONT AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN EITHER ON-GOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...OR PERHAPS THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION. THEREFORE KEPT GOING POPS ALL AREAS...BUT STILL ONLY 20-35 PERCENT WITH HIGHER CHANCES NORTH IN SLIGHTLY LESS CAPPED AREAS. THE SOUTH FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS HITTING MID 90S AND 70+ DEWPOINTS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014 THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE AND FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE AREA BEING DOMINATED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA...WHICH WILL BE A REFLECTION OF THE REBUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND STABLE ENOUGH TO GREATLY LIMIT ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL WAVE TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD KEEP THAT ACTIVITY WELL WEST OF TAF SITES TODAY. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT COULD TRIGGER MORE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. THESE COULD AFFECT KOFK BEFORE 12Z BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTHWEST.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...NIETFELD LONG TERM...NIETFELD AVIATION...DERGAN

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