Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 201116 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 516 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 513 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 Should be able to clear a few counties out of the winter weather advisory in northeast NE by 6am where precip has ended for the day. Will continue the advisory where patchy freezing drizzle continues.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Thursday) Issued at 310 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 Mixed precip across the area early this morning is expected to be winding down and ending between 12Z and 16Z as main instability and forcing shifts east. Will continue advisory through the mid morning expiration for now. Surface high builds into eastern Nebraska this afternoon and tonight helping to dry things out for a bit before moving east into the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. Main forecast concern for late Wednesday into Thursday will be timing of energy ejecting from persistent western trough and overrunning warm advection and moisture from stalled frontal boundary over the southern plains. Models show similar solution in bringing increasing PoPs into southern parts of the forecast area by Wednesday evening then spreading it north into Thursday. Thermal profiles would suggest a continued likelihood of mixed precip for most of the area with mainly snow in the northwest. Amounts look to be on the lower end and due to uncertainty in placement no headlines at this point. Daytime temperatures do moderate in the south for Wednesday and Thursday as highs reach at or above freezing by Thursday. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 310 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 Extended period will continue see additional energy coming out of the western trough and a chance of more precipitation late Friday into Saturday with another round of mixed precip likely. Temperatures however are forecast to warm above freezing in the south during the day both Friday and Saturday so rain is likely there in the afternoon on Saturday with a mix in the north. Sunday and Monday are dry for now but some uncertainty due to model solutions in handling of the upper waves during that time.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 513 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 Precip has ended at KOFK, with VFR conditions expected. Freezing drizzle or light flurries continue at KLNK/KOMA until about 13-14z, otherwise MVFR, transitioning to VFR through the afternoon. Northwest winds 12 to 20 knots through the day.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NEZ011- 012-015>018-031>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for IAZ043- 055-056-069-079-080-090-091. && $$ UPDATE...DeWald SHORT TERM...Fobert LONG TERM...Fobert AVIATION...DeWald

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