Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 010338 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 938 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 920 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015 WINTER HAS RETURNED. AS EXPECTED...00Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ABOUT 210-280% ABOVE NORMAL. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS RANGED FROM 40 TO 80 METERS ACROSS THE REGION...AND OVERALL THE AREA REMAINS WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO OUR NORTH. SNOW CONTINUES AT THIS TIME...AND WILL DO SO THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY WILL BE WINDING DOWN ON SUNDAY. THE SNOW SO FAR HAS BEEN A VERY HEAVY WET SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS WELL BELOW 10:1. TEMPS HAVE REMAINED JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...WHICH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO ROAD CONDITIONS BECOMING HAZARDOUS...PERHAPS MORESO THAN EXPECTED. WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT CURRENTLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS...THEY ARE BACKING AND BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE BY 12Z AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE KC AREA...WHICH WILL THEN CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. REGARDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...WE CURRENTLY HAVE 5 TO 9 INCHES FORECAST WITH HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT AND THAT TREND SEEMS OK. THE HEAVY WET SNOW IS COMPACTING QUITE A BIT ON THE GROUND. HAVE UPPED AMOUNTS JUST SLIGHTLY BASED ON REPORTS. THUS...THIS WILL LIKELY END UP ON THE HIGH END OF THE ADVISORY CATEGORY. HAVE ALSO CONSIDERED UPGRADING TO A WINTER STORM WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BLOWING SNOW THAT WILL BE TAKING PLACE ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS EASILY APPROACHING 40 MPH. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW VISIBILITIES RESPOND TO THAT AS IT MAY END UP IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN OUTLYING REMOTE AREAS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. WILL DEFER THAT TO THE NEXT FORECAST ONCE WE GET MORE MODEL DATA IN. AS A SIDE NOTE...WE WILL BREAK WATER EQUIVALENT RECORDS AT BOTH LINCOLN AND OMAHA FOR JAN 31. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015 SNOW AND HEADLINES ARE THE MAIN PROBLEMS IN THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE KEPT PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. A 90 KNOT JET MAX WAS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US AT 12Z. ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG WINDS AT 300 MB WAS FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RECENT RAP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOW A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAJA. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND ANOTHER WAVE WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM MONTANA. A 12 HOUR 500 MB HEIGHT FALL MAX OF ABOUT 130 METERS WAS OVER MONTANA AND ANOTHER AROUND 100 METERS WAS NEAR THE MEXICO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. SO THIS IS A FAIRLY COMPLEX SETUP... WITH SOME PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MOISTURE HAS BEEN RETURNING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AREAS OF SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES...ADDING A FEW COUNTIES TO THE WARNING IN THE NORTH. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (850-700 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES 3-4 G/KG AT 6 PM THIS EVENING...FALLING TO 2-3 G/KG BY 12Z SUNDAY) ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW AMOUNTS FROM ABOUT 4 TO 9 INCHES IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST. AS COLDER AIR SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT (WHICH EXTENDED FROM WISCONSIN BACK INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON)...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AND ROADS WILL START TO ICE UP/BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START SLIDING TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. STRONG NORTH SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY ALSO CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY IN NEBRASKA AND UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. IT IS POSSIBLE THESE MAY BE CANCELLED EARLIER THAN THAT...BUT THAT IS WHAT WE WILL GO WITH FOR NOW. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND LIFT PULLS OUT OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND WITH CLEARING SKIES HAVE LOWS FALLING OR AROUND ZERO...OR EVEN BELOW ZERO IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTH WINDS SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OMAHA...BUT NOT A BIG DEAL. A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY. 12Z GFS SEEMED A BIT TOO HIGH ON QPF TUESDAY...BUT WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015 LOOK FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. FAST WEST/NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR EARLY...WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE 20S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 518 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015 WINTER EVENT WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. IFR AND OCCASIONALLY LIFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AT ALL TAF SITES WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 1/2 TO 1 1/2 MILES MOSTLY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST INITIALLY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK BECOMING NORTHEAST...THEN NORTH AND SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASING BY 11-13Z TO 22 TO 35 KNOTS. AT THAT TIME...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ011-016-017- 030>033-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ012-015-018- 034. IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056- 069-080-091. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR IAZ079-090. && $$ UPDATE...DEWALD SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...DEWALD

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