Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 042330 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 630 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A QUITE NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALL THIS IN PART TO NW FLOW ALOFT BRINGING A CANADIAN AIR MASS INTO THE LOWER 48 WITH THE BRUNT OF CAA DROPPING DOWN THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PCPN CHANCES IN THE NEAR TERM REMAIN DEPENDENT UPON INTERACTION BETWEEN SFC BNDRY MOVEMENT/SERIES OF VORT MAX OVER THE REGION. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH PCPN EXPANDING OUT OF KS AND INTO THE CWA TONIGHT AND WED WHERE VERY STOUT 315K UPGLIDE/LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED. EXPECT HIGHER RAINFALL RATES OVER THE SRN CWA DURING THIS TIME WHERE MAX OMEGA/PWS APPROACHING 2" INCHES WILL PHASE WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL WARM LYR. WED NIGHT...PCPN ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS EASTWARD. ON THURSDAY...AFTN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG DRY LINE WITH MLCAPES OF 3000J/KG PROGGED OVER CNTRL NEB. NAM12/GFS20/ECM ALL SHOW CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN CWA WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING THRU THURSDAY EVENING. RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 GFS/ECM/CMC IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE DOMINATING THE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH METEOGRAMS OVER THE CWA ARE CLEARLY SHOWING A WARMING TREND OVER THE CWA NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BELIEVE SUPERBLEND MAX TEMPS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE. GIVEN THIS FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO NUDGE AFTN HIGHS UP A BIT. OTHERWISE CURRENT POP FCST LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW AND PLAN ON ONLY MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. && .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 KLNK APPEARS TO HAVE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AT ALL THREE SITES WITH PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY TOWARD 12Z AND AT KLNK OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...FOBERT

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