Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KOAX 200807 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 307 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014 PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO MONDAY CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE A STALLED BOUNDARY FROM NEAR COLUMBUS TO SIOUX CITY AT 08Z IS FORECAST TO LIFT A BIT NORTH AND/OR WASH OUT TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN U.S. AND A SRN TROUGH MOVES A LITTLE NORTH OF EAST ACROSS SRN PLAINS. FORECAST AREA GENERALLY REMAINS IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS TODAY/TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A WEAK LOBE APPARENTLY IS/WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT UP INTO FA FROM SRN SYSTEM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS ON LOW SIDE ESPECIALLY BELOW H85 AND ANY MOISTURE THERE IS WAS HAVING A HARD TIME OVERCOMING MODEST CAP CURRENTLY IN PLACE PER 00Z OAX/LBF/TOP SOUNDINGS. MODEL QPF HAS BEEN POOR...GENERALLY OVERDOING PCPN...AND CONFIDENCE IN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS THEY GIVE ARE LOW TO SAY THE LEAST. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES SEEM A BIT MORE THIS MORNING GIVEN MID DECK CIGS AT SOME LOCALS AND ACCAS APPEARANCE TO MORNING STLT IMAGERY. AND WITH HEATING WOULD SUSPECT SOME INCREASE IN POPS ARE IN ORDER LATER THIS AFTN THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN OVERNIGHT AS NRN WAVE SENDS COLD FRONT INTO ECNTRL ZONES. OVERALL THOUGH TRIMMED MOST POPS A BIT. IT ALSO LOOKS LESS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE HELD DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY BY WIDESPREAD PRECIP OR CONTINUAL THICK CLOUDINESS WITH EVEN LAST HOLD-OUT ECMWF COMING AROUND TO WARMER READINGS. GENERALLY BOOSTED A FEW DEGREES. SOME MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LAGS ACROSS SERN ZONES MONDAY AFTN...POSSIBLY EVEN BEHIND WEAKENING COLD FRONT PER NAM. BECAUSE OF THAT LINGERED A SLIGHT CHC FAR SE INTO MID AFTN. OTHERWISE PCPN CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING BEHIND FRONT AS WINDS AND PROBABLY FIRE DANGER INCREASE AGAIN AS DEWPOINTS LOWER INTO THE 30S/LOW 40S AND HIGHS REACH 70 OR BETTER. RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR READINGS TO MONDAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014 WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS AREA IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH. GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WITH LESS COVERAGE FOR PART OF WEDNESDAY AND HAVE RESPONDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES...MOST NOTABLY THE ECMWF. BOOSTED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER PREV FORECAST/EARLIER MODEL BLEND ON WED. ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST FRONT PUSHES DURING THE DAY WED...STILL APPEARS SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST...POSSIBLY A BIT FARTHER SE THAN IT LOOKED EARLIER. ALTHOUGH WE`LL HAVE TO OVERCOME A STRONG WRLY-DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL WINDS BEHIND FRONT ON THURSDAY...HEATING AND SOME MOISTURE LAGS AS MAIN CIRC CENTER...BY THEN THE PROBABLY DEVELOPED...UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN NW OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS THE LINGERING POPS PER PREV FCST STILL LOOK IN ORDER. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS ALSO IN ORDER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EWD...BUT AMOUNT OF WHICH WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS EXACT LATITUDE IT DOES EVENTUALLY SHIFT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. ALSO LATE NEXT WEEKEND...NEW DAY 7...LOOKS POTENTIALLY INTERESTING... ESPECIALLY PER 00Z ECMWF.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR KOFK AND THE WINDS THERE ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWEST AND THE WINDS GO SOUTH SIMILAR TO KOMA/KLNK. SHRA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP AND HAVE REMOVED PRECIP MENTION FROM KOFK TAF...BUT AN ISO SHRA STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. WE DO EXPECT A BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA ON SUN BUT WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES WE WILL LEAVE THE TAFS DRY ATTM. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHERMOK LONG TERM...CHERMOK AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.