Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 251743 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1143 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 105 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. IMPRESSIVE 220 METER HEIGHT FALLS WERE OBSERVED OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. LEE SIDE SFC REFLECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WAS PROVIDING STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WHICH HAVE BEEN BLANKETING THE AREA FOR OVER A WEEK HAVE FINALLY MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL STILL ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE ALBEIT FILTERED. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TODAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR NORTH TO NEAR 50 IN OUR SOUTH. SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00Z TONIGHT. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL EJECT TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT. POST FRONTAL PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY SPREAD INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVELS SATURATE ACROSS OUR CWA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH COULD CAUSE A BIT OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH BROAD AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL MOTION. STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO NOSE OF 125KT 300MB JET STREAK. THIS STRONG FORCING CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD SET UP A BAND OF HEAVIER QPF FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT AS MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING. OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE A SUB-ADVISORY SNOWFALL WITH ANYWHERE FROM 0.5" IN OUR SOUTH TO NEAR 2" IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 105 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014 SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT PROVIDING WEAK RETURN FLOW INTO SUNDAY. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW TO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FRIGID TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO MID NEXT WEEK AS A 1045MB HIGH SETTLES INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. && .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014 TIMING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS UPON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THE MAIN AVN CONCERNS WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. LATEST SFC SHOWING SFC LOW PRES CENTERED IN ERN CO WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CNTRL MN TO NW KS. BNDRY HAS BEEN STAGNANT THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE BNDRY THOUGH SHOULD BEGIN MAKING A PUSH SWD BY EARLY EVENING AND THROUGH ERN NEB OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT...AT KOFK AROUND 02Z...AND KOMA/KLNK AROUND 05Z. IN ADDITION...HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE PROB30 GROUPS EARLY FRI MORNING FOR POSSIBLE -SN/IFR. AS FOR SN ACCUM THRU 18Z FRI...LESS THAN AN INCH AT KOFK...LITTLE IF ANY AT KOMA/KLNK.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...DEE

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