Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 302000 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 300 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 RAINY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE PREVIOUS 18 TO 24 HOURS...AN ADDITIONAL ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH IS FORECAST...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG/NORTH OF I80. HEAVIER STEADIER RAIN SHIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. REPLACING THE STEADY RAIN HAS BEEN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR ON/OFF SHOWERS WITH COOL TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S. UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT INTO OUR AREA...THEN EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THIS MOVES IN...WE DO EXPECT MORE HEAVIER SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AGAIN WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION WHICH WILL AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF I80. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE AZ/CA/NV BORDER REGION OPENS AND SKIRTS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT AFFECT THE NE/KS BORDER REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BUT CURRENT MODELS KEEP ANY PRECIP ACROSS KS. A VERY WEAK REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY COMING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO PARTS OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HINTING OF AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 BY LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE IT SCOOTS OUT OF THE ARE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME IMPORTANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES THAT BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY WITH WARMING TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH A WESTERLY WIND. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE DRY WITH PRETTY DECENT AND NEARLY OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SMALL PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BASED ON THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY WITH A STRONGER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE DETAILS. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE BULK OF THE STEADIER RAIN IS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES AND DRIZZLE OR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE...5 TO 15KTS AT KOMA AND KLNK AND 10 TO 20KTS AT KOFK. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AT KLNK THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL WILL WORK INTO TO ALL THE TAF SITES AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20KTS AND GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

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