Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 152041 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 341 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES...
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- High to very high fire danger is possible Saturday and Sunday. Will keep a close watch for the potential for some extreme fire weather conditions in the northern half of the forecast area. - Dry conditions will continue through much of the forecast with some light precipitation potential by day 7. - Cold overnight lows in the teens to low 20s possible Monday morning. Temperatures gradually warm back up toward the latter half of next week.
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&& .DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 337 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Surface high pressure continues to build east across the area this afternoon which has produced a fairly nice day in the 50s with only a few clouds and winds under 12 mph. An upstream mid/upper level trough currently dropping southeast across northern Manitoba will quickly dive south/southeast into Ontario and towards the Great Lakes region tonight. This will allow a surface cold front to slide through the forecast area Saturday morning. Northwesterly winds could gust to 25-30 mph behind this front on Saturday with high temperatures reaching the mid 50s in our north to the low 60s in our south. Cold air advection will continue into the remainder of the weekend as a northern lobe of this trough pushes a secondary cold front through the region. Gusty northwest winds of 30-35 mph look likely throughout the day. With highs only in the 40s, wind chill values throughout the day will be in the 20s and 30s. In regards to fire weather concerns over the weekend, beneficial wetting rains covered much of the southeastern half of the CWA which has helped fuels for a couple of days. Minimum RH values on Saturday are expected to remain above 20% and Very High Fire danger is possible in our northwestern half of the CWA. If drier RH values are able to move into the area, we may need to consider Red Flag conditions. On Sunday, a cooler airmass will be in place and minimum RH values are expected to remain above 20% again but fuels will be more dried out and so will need to monitor for Very High to Extreme fire conditions for Sunday. By Monday morning, cold, Canadian high pressure will build overhead dropping Monday morning lows into the teens and 20s. Cool upper troughing over the Great Lakes will push toward the eastern CONUS early next week allowing upper ridging and a warmer airmass to spread east across the western CONUS and toward the central Plains. A gradual warm up is expected across our area which could lead to continued fire weather concerns. Northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to persist into the end of next week keeping highs in the 60s. A trough coming out of the desert southwest will begin to eject into the southern Plains by the end of next week keeping a majority of any promising moisture well to our south. A more active pattern is setting up for the central Plains into next weekend with hints of a strong low moving across the central CONUS but that`s quite a ways out.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 VFR conditions are expected throughout the period with a few scattered fair-weather cumulus clouds this afternoon. These should diminish with sunset. North/northwest surface winds will gust to around 15kts this afternoon before subsiding to below 10kts overnight. LLWS is possible for a few hours at KOMA overnight but is not anticipated to last long. A cold front will turn surface winds to the northwest through Saturday morning and gusts behind this front could be up to 25kts. A few thin high clouds are possible throughout the day Saturday. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kern AVIATION...Kern

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