Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 241954 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 254 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 252 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 Water vapor imagery this aftn showing a well define upper circulation gradually approaching the wrn Dakotas. Ahead of this system scattered TSRA has developed right along a cold front with the leading edge roughly stretching from cntrl KS to the ern Dakotas. Environmental moisture is quite stout up against the bndry with PWS around 2". Meanwhile sfc obs are revealing a secondary surge of upstream CAA over ern MT/ern WY attendant to sfc low pressure centered in wrn ND. Main issue to contend with is timing pcpn activity coming to a close tonight. All indications per RAP13 suggest bndry on the wrn periphery will move little thru this evening...but progs pcpn activity to gradually shift into wrn IA shortly after midnight as axis of upper level trof enters crosses the nrn plains...coupled with approach of synoptic cold front. Given the slow nature of ewd progression...generous rainfall amounts...particularly over our IA CWA...will likely be realized by events end early Sunday morning. Otherwise...dry and cooler conditions will prevail thru mid week with near normal max temps/slightly below normal lows. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 252 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 Both GFS/ECM/CMC in pretty good agreement well amplified upper ridge situated over the cntrl conus will keep conditions dry and relatively cool heading into next weekend. Small pcpn chances return Friday late aftn/night as several minor impulses eject from the swrn states into the cntrl plains. There is some QPF timing differences...GFS the quicker solution/ECM lagging behind by roughly 12 hrs. Otherwise...near normal temps expected thru the extended pds. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.) Issued at 1241 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 Radar mosaic TSRA showing areal coverage of TSRA increasing over ern Neb this aftn just ahead of a cold front generally stretching from KHJH-KOFK-KONL. Expect activity to continue thru the majority of this aftn with occasional MVFR conditions accompanying the stronger TSRA. Activity should push then into wrn IA by late aftn/early evening. VFR the remainder of the fcst pd. && .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...DEE

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