Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 051400 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 900 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 900 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS HELPED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING THIS MORNING. SOME OF THAT COULD MOVE DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BEFORE WEAKENING. NEW ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALL GRIDS AND PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND OTHER UPDATES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS AT ALL. THE 00Z HIGH RES ARW DID HAVE SOME IDEA.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITHIN AN AREA OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THE CELLS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT PULSY THIS MORNING LIKELY PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL HALF INCH TO NICKEL SIZE. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND COULD LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO PAST 12Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 MPH...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. RAP/SREF/MODELS DO HINT AT ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS THERE 21-00Z. FOCUS SHIFTS TO INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP IN OUR AREA BY ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT MAY NEED TO DELAY BY ANOTHER 3 TO 6 HOURS AS MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SLOW THINGS DOWN. STILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT. HAVE DOUBTS IF PRECIP WILL MAKE IT TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH A STRONGER ENHANCED RISK ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER AND POINTS NORTHWARD. FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS...BUT MOSTLY CLEARING THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH JUST LINGERING THUNDERSHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BEFORE 03Z. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 DRY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN SYSTEMS. SUBTLE WAVES MOVE BACK ONTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND THEN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING ANY ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES AS MODELS BECOME OUT OF SYNC WITH SYNOPTIC DETAILS...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING LINE OF TSRA EXTENDING FROM SE SD INTO NE NEB SLOWLY MIGRATING TO THE EAST. THE SVR THREAT HAS DIMINISHED BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. AT THIS POINT BELIEVE ONLY KOFK IS AT RISK TO SEE ANY TSRA ACTIVITY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THUS HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP. ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SVR TSRA CHANCES THOUGH LOOK RATHER REMOTE WITH +RA THE MAIN THREAT AT ALL TERMINALS. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MILLER SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...DEE

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