Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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416 FXUS63 KOAX 271852 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 152 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016 SURFACE LOW REMAINS PARKED IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WEST SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBUS AT 18Z. SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH BOUNDARIES NOTED ON KOAX RADAR SHOW THE OCCLUSION POINT WAS BETWEEN LINCOLN AND WAHOO. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE VARIOUS BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS OF HRRR... EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AS NSSL 4KM SUGGEST MINI SUPER CELL STORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM NEAR FREMONT EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THESE WOULD BE LOW TOPPED STORMS. OF SOME CONCERN IS THE TRIPLE POINT WHERE SOME ROTATION MAY BE DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF OUR OFFICE. SURFACE BASED CAPE IS 1000-1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR. 0-3KM CAPE IS 100-125 J/KG...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE COORDINATED WITH SPC EARLIER IN THE DAY TO PULL THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FURTHER WEST...AND ALSO BRING 2 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITIES INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF STORMS OF ABOUT 1-2 HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AS THESE STORMS SHIFT NORTH. FREEZING LEVEL IS LOW...AROUND 8000 FEET. THUS 50DBZ HEIGHTS WOULD BE QUITE LOW FOR HAIL...WHICH COULD BE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016 NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ELONGATE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO TO THE BASE IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC LOW AT 08Z LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TODAY...THE COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TIGHTEN UP AND SHIFT NORTHEAST...SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE SFC LOW. INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR WHAT COULD BE A CLASSIC MINI-SUPERCELL EVENT. THE TRIPLE POINT BY 18-21Z IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. LATEST CAM`S SHOW DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY SPREAD THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEAST AS BOTH THE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW MOVE INTO E/NE EVENING. COOLER AIR...WITH EVEN A FEW HINTS OF 0C 850MB TEMPS...WRAP INTO THIS LOW TONIGHT WITH DEFORMATION BAND SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WILL BE A CHILLY WET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. UPPER LOW EXITS EAST OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON ENDING ANY REMAINING PCPN CHANCES OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DROPS INTO THE AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING LOWS COULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTH. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LARGE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE ROUNDING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT THAT TIME. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016 PCPN CHANCES INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF UPPER LOW. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALSO WILL BE INCREASING IN WAA ZONE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FINALLY ON THE HORIZON FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016 BELIEVE THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT KOMA/KOFK FROM 19-21Z AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ARC NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE...IT`S MOSTLY MVFR INITIALLY...BUT PROBABLY BECOMING IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO A COMPLICATED WIND FORECAST AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DEWALD SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...DEWALD

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