Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 280800 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM. MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JET STREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS NOTED OVER IL. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB WHICH HAD 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF AROUND 80 METERS OVER SERN MI. A RIDGE AT 500 MB WAS CENTERED NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND UP INTO CANADA. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL ONLY UNDERGO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD. 500 MB HEIGHTS LOCALLY START OUT AROUND 5850-5880 METERS TODAY...FALL ABOUT 30 METERS TUESDAY AND FALL JUST A BIT MORE WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WITH MIXING IS THAT HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ALL THREE DAYS. TODAY...THERE IS SOME SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS WRN IA. IR STLT LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS ERN SD AND THE NERN CORNER OF NEBRASKA. CLOUD BASES WERE MAINLY 3000 TO 6000 FEET AGL. MODELS INDICATE THIS MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP SWD TODAY...MAINLY AFFECTING WRN IA. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING WITH HEATING TODAY AND WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR BUILDUPS. PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE VERY SMALL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS INDICATED MAINLY FROM PARTS OF MN INTO NERN IA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP13 ALSO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL TODAY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY INTO THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THIS IS QUITE A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME LIGHT PCPN DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OFF TO OUR WEST FROM SWRN SD INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF SHOWERS IN LATER FORECASTS. THE 00Z NAM IS THE ODD MODEL OUT COMPARED TO MOST OF THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...AND SEEMS OVERDONE WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN OUR AREA. THE GFS... ECMWF AND SREF ARE DRY...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 14 OR LESS FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 PCPN CHANCES LOOK SMALL IN THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN OF A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE... BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO EXPAND A BIT INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN MAY BE NEEDED AROUND FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AROUND 12Z AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG OR BE WIDESPREAD. THEN ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR FL050 AND NORTH WINDS NEAR 12KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...DERGAN

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