Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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091 FXUS63 KOAX 281154 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 654 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SHORT TERM...(today through Monday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016 Thunderstorm chances/precipitation amounts will provide the main forecast challenges. Storms last evening were efficient rain producers and there were some locally heavy amounts. 300 mb winds at 00Z last evening were generally 70 to 90 knots from eastern Kansas across our area and into Minnesota last evening. This was ahead of the closed low at 500 mb which was in western Kansas. Main area of height falls with that feature was over Oklahoma. Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning showed the closed low had moved to northern Kansas...to the southwest of Lincoln. Models are all in fairly good agreement... tracking the low into southwest Minnesota by early evening. That will lift away from our area tonight...as some energy starts to move our of the trough over the Pacific northwest and another closed low forms off the California coast. Today...will generally follow recent runs of the high resolution experimental HRRR for timing of showers/thunderstorms. Heaviest rain should be over northeast Nebraska...tied to deformation zone but some storms will affect parts of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Surface low should move to northwest Iowa this afternoon with our winds increasing from the west or northwest. Have rain chances mainly 30-60 percent this afternoon as things destabilize a bit. Coverage of showers/storms should decrease this evening. Models hint at light precipitation possible late tonight in parts of eastern Nebraska. NAM is a little farther north compared to the GFS. Forecast soundings show enough elevated instability that if something occurs...it will probably have thunder. Otherwise...it looks like the atmosphere should destabilize more during the afternoon with mixed layer CAPE values reaching 1500-2000 J/KG. 0-6 km bulk shear is expected to be fairly weak though...so not expecting much storm organization at this time. Similar situation is likely on Monday. Locally heavy rain also seems possible on Monday. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016 Chance for showers/storms will continue through Wednesday...then tried to show a mainly dry forecast from Wednesday night through Friday. Models by mid week have a ridge developing over the western United States and a trough moving through the plains. With time...both features move eastward. Hopeful that this will allow for things to dry out a bit locally. && .AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 12Z Sunday) Issued at 650 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016 Overall VFR conditions are expected as upper disturbance moves east of the area. A few MVFR ceilings continue to pass over TAF sites this morning but do expect this to improve. Scattered showers possible mainly at KOFK through afternoon.
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&& .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Miller LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...Kern

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