Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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714 FXUS63 KOAX 100839 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 239 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 239 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017 A northwest mid-level flow regime will prevail across the north- central U.S. today ahead of a short-wave trough cresting an amplified ridge over British Columbia. In the low levels, early- morning surface observations indicate a notably warmer air mass (owing to downslope-induced compressional warming) to our immediate west which will overspread the region today. And while we may see some increase in high clouds, afternoon temperatures should warm into the mid to upper 50s over our western counties with upper 40s to lower 50s over southwest Iowa. Winds may become gusty from the northwest with the onset of daytime heating, which combined with the warm temperatures and dry conditions, could yield an elevated fire weather concern across our western counties. Tonight into Monday, the aforementioned British Columbia disturbance will track southeast through the mid-MO Valley with another perturbation on it`s immediate heels. These systems will be attended by a cold front which should move through the area Monday morning. It doesn`t appear that this frontal passage will be associated with a significantly colder air mass. However, winds will become quite strong from the northwest; in the 25 to 35 mph range with higher gusts possible. Given these winds and the indication that the post-frontal air mass will not be significantly cooler (i.e. Monday`s highs in the lower 40s to lower 50s), there could be some fire weather concerns late Monday morning into afternoon again over our western counties. Farther to the north/northeast, available 00z model guidance is suggestive that sufficient moistening and forcing for ascent could foster some light rain or sprinkles Monday afternoon from near the South Dakota border into west-central Iowa. It`s possible some light snow could mix in before ending. By Tuesday, the cooler low-level air which filtered into the region behind Monday`s cold front will be scoured from west to east with highs from the mid 40s west to upper 30s east. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 239 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017 On Wednesday, another short-wave trough and associated cold front are forecast to move through the region, though model guidance remains a bit dispersive with respect to the specific track of the upper-air system. While we will likely see an increase in clouds, precipitation potential remains uncertain due to that model disparity. Therefore, we will maintain a generally dry forecast at this juncture. Similar to the Monday system, winds will strengthen from the north or northwest behind the cold front with a cooler low-level air mass filtering into the region from the north. By Friday into the weekend, medium-range guidance is suggestive that the persistent ridge over western North America will dampen and retrograde into the eastern Pacific with a zonal jet developing over the Pacific Northwest. These data indicate the potential for a short-wave trough to move through the northern and central Plains on Saturday with a chance of light precipitation with the passage of that feature. Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal normals through the long-term forecast period.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1125 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017 Expect VFR conditions through the period with mainly some mid and high level clouds. Winds will turn to the northwest and increase mid to late Sunday morning with some gusts around 20 to 25 knots, then winds will decrease toward sunset. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mead LONG TERM...Mead AVIATION...Miller

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