Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 241121 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 621 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014 TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES SHOULD PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THIS PERIOD. PATTERN AT 500 MB AT 00Z FEATURED A CLOSED LOW JUST OF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN ANTICYCLONE WITH A CENTER AROUND 599 DM OVER COLORADO AND A TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. THE HIGH OVER COLORADO WILL PUSH DOWN INTO NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z SUNDAY. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO INHIBIT CONVECTION TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME MODERATE ELEVATED MOISTURE JUST TO OUR WEST (6 DEGREE 700 MB DEWPOINTS NOTED AT BOTH KLBF AND KABR) ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. RECENT HOURLY SHORT RANGE MODELS... HRRR AND RAP13...DEVELOP CONVECTION INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY AROUND 12Z OR SO. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON WHAT EXACTLY WILL HAPPEN BUT WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS MAINLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. THERE WERE NOT ANY RADAR ECHOES IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF 330 AM...BUT THERE WERE SOME CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 9500 FEET. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND AMEND GRIDS/FORECAST PRODUCTS AS NEEDED. EXPECT MOST HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY...WARMEST WEST AND COOLEST EAST. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A COMBINED RESULT OF CLOUD COVER AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION TONIGHT IN OUR AREA. 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 14-16 DEGREE C RANGE SO CHANCES SEEM LOW. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...IN CASE ANY STORMS THAT FORM TO THE WEST DRIFT EAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS AT 14 OR LESS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...EVEN THOUGH A FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM...SO EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO STAY CAPPED. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S NORTH AND 95 TO 100 SOUTH. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 100 TO 105 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT NO HEADLINES EXPECTED FOR THAT AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING...AND THEN TRY TO ROLL EAST/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 81 AND KEPT THAT THINKING. 00Z NAM MODEL MAY HAVE BEEN A BIT OVERDONE WITH PCPN SATURDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS MOST AREAS. SOME LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE PRESENT BASED ON RECENT NAM AND GFS RUNS. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO SHIFT SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD VARY FROM MID 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014 OUR AREA WILL GENERALLY BE IN MODEST NORTHWEST MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FOR DAYS 3 TO 7. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL. CHANCES FOR PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK MINIMAL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN...SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW. AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...PCPN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE. HAVE ADDED SOME 20-30 PERCENT POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KOFK AND KOMA FROM 15Z THROUGH 20Z...THEN OVER ALL THE AREA AFTER 06Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT TAF SITES...AVERAGING 15 TO 25KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CAUSING CONVECTION IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE EAST AND KEEP THUNDERSTORMS WELL AWAY FROM TAF SITES. BUT ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT COULD ALSO TRIGGER STORMS...BUT WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...DERGAN

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