Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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612 FXUS63 KOAX 152028 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 328 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017 ...Chilly Start Then Above Normal the Rest of the Week... Forecast challenges in the short term will mainly be the low temperatures tonight and coverage of frost. Most locations in northeast Nebraska have experienced freezing temperatures and farther south, the frost has been hit or miss. We have a nice explainer related to where and when we will still be issuing frost/freeze headlines on our nws office web site and social media. Basically, we are nearing the end of the growing season in east central and southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, but are not quite there yet. A weak surface trough is pushing across the Northern Plains and drier dewpoints from the mid 20s to the lower 30s are working eastward with mixing helping to dry things out. The h85 thermal trough is over the Great Lakes and although there is weak warm air advection aloft. Thus...the synoptic pattern is not perfect for the coldest temperatures. Despite this...forecast soundings support the development of a very steep low level inversion with favorable low level radiational cooling near the surface. Dewpoints should range from around 30 to 35 degrees. Any light wind will make the temperature go up, so will count on a good variance from location to location due to wind and cool air drainage differences and winds from calm to 5kts. The MET/MAV guidance is lower in the know cold spots (LCG 29 and OLU 32) and have trended forecast lows toward guidance. Most lows should range from 33 to 37...however the cool spots in northeast Nebraska could dip to the upper 20s to 32 and hilltops/urban areas could stay in the upper 30s. With the above in mind, we have a frost advisory for all of our county warning forecast area that we are still issuing headlines for...including east central and southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. The active weather Monday will be along the East Coast. Although there will be weather systems tracking across the Northern Plain...warm and dry air will prevail. As of Oct 10th, harvesting was running behind last year or near the five year average in all crops, so looks like a great week for the fields to dry up and the field harvest operations to catch up. Our normal highs are in the mid 60s and normal lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Through Wednesday...highs should top out in the 70s both Tuesday and Wednesday. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017 Thursday through Saturday, we continue to experience above normal temperatures. By Friday night, we do have a cold front pushing into the Western High Plains with shower/thunderstorm chances returning Friday night into the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle, with clear skies and unrestricted visibility. Winds this afternoon will reach around 10 mph out of the northwest, becoming lighter at around 5 mph tonight as direction shifts to southwesterly. Wind speeds should increase again to around 10 mph by mid to late morning. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Monday for NEZ044-045- 051>053-065>068-078-088>093. IA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Monday for IAZ055-056-069- 079-080-090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...Zapotocny LONG TERM...Zapotocny AVIATION...Mayes

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