Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 302326 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 526 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015 PCPN TYPE AND PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD... ESPECIALLY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. PCPN SHOULD TURN TO MOSTLY SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND LATEST RAP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER REGION EARLY THIS AFTN. THIS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THIS TROUGH THOUGH AND MOVE UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER...WITH LIGHT PCPN PROBABLY MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE 12Z. HAVE LOWS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER 30S SOUTH. THE PCPN TYPE MAY BE A MIX LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DID MAKE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO SNOW AMOUNTS...MAINLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ON SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT IF WE GET ANY ACCUMULATIONS...THEY WOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. FARTHER NORTH...PCPN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON BUT AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHTER. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL APPEARED TOO COLD...AND WENT CLOSER TO A BLEND OF SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE SREF. NORTH WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AS THE COLUMN COOLS...PCPN WILL CHANGE TO MOSTLY SNOW AND WILL START TO ACCUMULATE. A SEPARATE SYSTEM WILL DROP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING GOOD LIFT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. IT APPEARS ANOTHER LOBE OF LIFT WILL DROP DOWN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT SOME MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW GOING UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE COLD WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DECREASING WINDS. LOWS SHOULD DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WE MAY SEE SOME BELOW ZERO NUMBERS FROM HARTINGTON AND WAYNE TOWARD TEKAMAH AND HARLAN. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY AND IT DOES APPEAR THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW IN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. COULD NOT ARGUE WITH THAT TOO MUCH SO WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR NOW AND WILL FINE TUNE THAT LATER. MEASURABLE LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN IOWA MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY 20S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015 SOME MILDER AIR WILL SPREAD IN BRIEFLY FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT FOR HIGHS. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW SEEMS POSSIBLE BASED ON THE PATTERN...PLUS BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BIT OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...THEN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. && .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 522 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015 VFR CONDITIONS BECOME MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RAIN DEVELOPING INITIALLY...THEN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE RAIN CHANCES BEGIN IN THE KLNK AREA BY 10Z...AND 14-15Z AT KOMA/KOFK. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE BY 20-21Z.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN/MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...DEWALD

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