Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KOAX 260846 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 346 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015 A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WESTERN MONTANA. MEANWHILE...RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION RIDING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WESTERN IOWA AND MISSOURI WHILE A SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY WHILE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FOUR CORNERS SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING/NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY 12Z THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS...STRENGTHENING SFC LOW WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION ALLOWING INCREASING WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE OVERNIGHT...BUT AM CONCERNED FOR THE LACK OF MOISTURE. FEEL WE MAY HAVE RADAR RETURNS SHOWING UP BUT IT MAY BE TOUGH FOR ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND EARLY IN THE EVENT. AREA HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED IN THE MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY ONE THINKING TSTMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SPREAD EAST...AIDED BY STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. BOTH MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE. WILL CONTINUE POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IOWA WHERE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING IN ADDITION TO NOSE OF NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESIDE. PW`S IN OUR REGION ARE AT OR ABOVE 2.00" AND SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO DEPART THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH PCPN LINGERING IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASING NORTHWEST SFC WINDS COULD GET A BIT BREEZY FOR A WHILE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX IN THE EVENING AS A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015 SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AS UPPER RIDGING SLIDES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WITH THE AXIS OVER THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODEL BLENDS DID ADD A SMALL POP TO OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA TUESDAY ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT DO MAINTAIN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTUALLY PANNING OUT. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...DEE

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.