Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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241 FXUS63 KOAX 082127 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 327 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016 LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST. CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z WHEN ALL WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW CRITERIA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NATION`S MID SECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES ARE MINIMAL. WE CONTINUE A VERY SMALL POP IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WITH A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH UPPER TEENS IN OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016 ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH MUCH OF THE STRONG FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES LEAVING OUR REGION IN MORE OF A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG 1047 MB HIGH. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO THE NATION`S MID SECTION ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING A BUNCH OF POPS FOR THE TIME FRAME.
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&& .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016 SOME MVFR CEILING SHOULD LINGER THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO DECREASE CLOUDS BELOW 5000 FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFTER THAT. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT DOES KEEP MVFR CEILINGS WELL INTO THE EVENING...SO THAT IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH GUSTS ENDING OVERNIGHT. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018- 030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043- 055-056-069-079-080-090-091. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069- 079-080-090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...MILLER

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