Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 241939 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 239 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(tonight through Thursday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016 Latest water vapor imagery in addition to 12z upper air analysis shows a weak ridge axis moving across the High Plains this afternoon. Also of note off the 12z upper air analysis was extremely dry layer around 850mb, which if realistic, will take quite some time to moisten. Surface high pressure ridge axis currently extends to the east of the region with dry southeasterly return flow increasing across our forecast area. Isentropic upglide will increase overnight in strong low level warm air advection regime but moisture will be a limiting factor to produce any significant precipitation until later on Tuesday. A bit of drizzle/fog can`t be completely ruled out overnight as the NAM would suggest, but do think much of the area will remain dry until later Tuesday. A quick moving and subtle shortwave trough will roll east across Nebraska Tuesday afternoon while a surface low deepens over eastern Nebraska. A warm front is forecast to extend southeast into western Missouri with near 60 degree dewpoints in the warm sector. Forcing for vertical ascent will increase during peak heating as the upper shortwave approaches eastern Nebraska. Short-lived window of opportunity for a few strong storms will exist across far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa as marginal instability works north before sunset. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into late Tuesday night until the upper shortwave trough axis and associated surface low finally push east. Behind this system, unidirectional flow and a tight surface gradient should bump northwest winds up to the breezy category. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016 Upper ridging will build east toward the area by late in the work week with temperatures returning to above normal. A week cold front will slide through the region Friday or Saturday but should come through dry. Return flow increases by late in the weekend with above normal temperatures for next Monday.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016 VFR conditions through the period, although clouds will be increasing by 07-09z. Could also be a few sprinkles or light showers at the TAF locations after 09z, and may consider adding this to later TAF forecasts. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kern LONG TERM...Kern AVIATION...DeWald is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.