Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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657 FXUS63 KOAX 101816 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1216 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016 SHORT TERM TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW PUSHING EAST. 18Z SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TRACKING SOUTHEAST WITH A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF IT BOOSTING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 30S AND 40S ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS. LOW CLOUDS WILL TRY TO RETURN AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST ONCE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO KANSAS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016 TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD AS AREA REMAINS UNDER STRONG AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST. REGIONAL RADARS AT 08Z SHOWING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WORKING SOUTHEAST ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE IOWA NEBRASKA BORDER. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ARE INDICATED AT THIS TIME. SNOW THEN MOVES OFF THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY. EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN SEE THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016 COLD AIR LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS AND A MORE SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE EAST. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016 VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS TO THE SOUTH AND FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST...SHOULD PULL BACK MVFR CIGS IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES/SATURATION TEND TO KEEP THE FLURRIES EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL THE NEXT CLIPPER APPROACHES LATER THURSDAY. VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY 10KTS OR LESS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

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