Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 022038 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 338 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016 THE FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL AFFECT OR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY/METARS/WSR-88D...HEATING TODAY INTO THE 60S HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY CUMULUS TO DEVELOP. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS TO AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A STRONG 90KT JET IS DIVING SOUTHWESTWARD TONIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF POCKETS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND OMEGA INCREASES...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 4KM WRF SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND TAKES THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MENTIONED SPRINKLES FOR NOW AND EVENING SHIFT CAN ASSESS HOW THESE ARE HOLDING TOGETHER. TUESDAY...CLOUDS COULD LINGER EARLY IN THE SOUTH...OTHERWISE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HEATING TO AROUND 70 SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW CUMULUS TO RE-DEVELOP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY...AFFECTING WISCONSIN. THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES/SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. THERE IS BETTER H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOME FRONTOGENESIS. FOR NOW HAVE THE CLOUDS MENTIONED AND CAN ADD POPS IF MOISTURE IS SUPPORTED FARTHER WEST. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016 ...WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED ALONG WITH MORE RAIN LATER THIS WEEKEND... THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE TOPS THE RIDGE AND COULD GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK QUITE MILD FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A FRONT SLIPS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE MODELS...SO WILL BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS...AND REFINE AS THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE ON HIGHER POPS.
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&& .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SCT-BKN DECK AROUND FL050-060 IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND AN ISO SHRA CAN`T BE RULED OUT IN THE AREA...BUT THE CHCS STILL APPEAR TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAF SITE. A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THEN DECREASING ON TUE MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

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