Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
250 FXUS63 KOAX 242035 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 335 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SHORT TERM...(tonight through Monday) Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Expect showers to continue through early evening as isolated thunderstorm potential wanes under decreasing instability. The southward progression of a surface boundary situated across southeast Nebraska has acted to limit the northward push of convection today and we expect this trend to continue. The current weather is associated with an upper level closed low that will continue progressing through the central plains through Saturday. This leaves our area in an overall unsettled pattern through at least late Saturday afternoon. Despite this system pulling out by Saturday evening quite a bit of moisture remains within the profile allowing clouds to persist. Weak mid-level ridging on Sunday should allow for light winds and an overall pleasant end to the weekend though daytime temperatures in the mid 50s. On Sunday night the next mid-level shortwave skirts across central Kansas. Have opted to maintain some low precipitation chances for southeast Nebrsaka associated with this feature. Dry weather is anticipated for Monday ahead of the next weather maker progged to move into the area by Tuesday night. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Ahead of the Tuesday night feature, quiet weather will rule with mid-level ridging in place. Monday night lows should remain above freezing, despite light winds, with temperatures on Tuesday reaching well into the 60s. On Monday night a mid-level trough will eject out of the four corner region before becoming a closed upper low by Wednesday. The latest model guidance suggests this feature will slide to our south, similar to the current system. Though with plenty of moisture in place and some coupling with a northern stream shortwave, there is plenty of dynamics in place to warrant an increase in precipitation potential Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. By Thursday how long the system lingers depends on how quickly the upstream flow moves. Thus for now, have lingered precipitation into Thursday but could see this move out quicker depending on how fast heights rise behind this low. Daytime temperatures through the work week are forecast in the 50s as 850mb temperature remain in the low single digits above zero. Through at least next week, the cold air is nowhere in sight allowing temperatures to remain near normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Mainly MVFR ceilings are expected to persist through the TAF cycle, with periods of showers that may reduce visibilities to around MVFR range. KOFK will see showers mainly this afternoon, while KOMA/KLNK should see rain this evening through Saturday morning. Have removed thunder mention as sites are solidly in cooler/stable airmass. Winds will remain northerly to north- northeasterly at about 12-15kt, with some gusts possible at KLNK as they remain closer to the low pressure center. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Pearson LONG TERM...Pearson AVIATION...Mayes is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.