Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 052343 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 643 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE COLD FRONT/SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY. AT 12Z...H5 LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA CANADA WITH A BROAD TROF TRAILING SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. H7 MOISTURE WAS POOLED AHEAD OF THE H7 TROF WITH 2 TO 4 DEG H7 DEWPOINTS. 12Z H85 DEWPOINTS HAD RISEN TO 12 TO 14 DEG C ACROSS THE STATE. MORNING CONVECTION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF DISSIPATED BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. THERE WERE A FEW SPOTS THAT RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE ROCKIES. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOW HIGHEST MLCAPE TORWARD FAIRBURY AND LINCOLN AND THE WEAKEST CAP IS IN THIS AREA. MEANWHILE...THE WARMEST MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE BUILDING IN TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE SHORT-TERM HIRES MODELS ARE MAINLY DRY THIS EVENING. THE RAP AND SPC HRRR DO SHOW SOME ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE IN THIS HIGH CAPE/WEAK CAP AREA. WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS IF STORMS BREAK THE CAP...THE COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. TONIGHT...THERE IS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET AND OMEGA WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF. WARM ADVECTION/THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES WITH THESE FEATURES...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA REMAINING WEST OF NORFOLK THROUGH 03Z...THEN SPREAD INTO THE REST OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH THE COLD FRONT. THROUGH 12Z...A PRE- FRONTAL TROF AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST...MEANWHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. CAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG IS FORECAST. DO MENTION SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE ZONE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. DURING THE MORNING...ANOTHER PUSH WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. THE STORMS MAY WEAKEN THOUGH BY THE TIME THEY MAKE IT TO FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND RE-GENERATE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ENDING MONDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAIN IS A CONCERN WITH THE HIGH PWATS. PWATS INCREASE TO 1.8 TO 2.2 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE NAM20 EVEN HAS A RARE 3 INCH BULLSEYE FOR PWAT NEAR FNB AT 00Z MONDAY EVENING. TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AREA POSSIBLE. THE STORMS ARE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH TONIGHT. MONDAY AFTERNOON THE STORM MOTIONS DO DROP DOWN TO AROUND 15KTS...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. MAINLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED WITH A RIDGE AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE TOWARD KOFK BY 04-06Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KOFK BY 10-12Z AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO KOMA AND KLNK BY AFTERNOON.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...KERN

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