Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 212017 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 317 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 315 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Models are advertising a rather progressive pattern over the next several days with ern conus trof quickly shifting east while upstream Pac NW trof pushes inland by mid-week and treks along the U.S./Can border. This wave will be responsible for dragging the next cold front into the central plains. Thrust of llvl theta-E advection begins in earnest Monday night and continues through the day on Tuesday. NAM/GFS/ECM seem to be in decent agreement showing elongated surface low pressure extending from the ern Dakotas to wrn KS with pcpn activity developing Tuesday afternoon just south of the CWA in response to increasing DPVA and mid layer WAA working in concert. The NAM though deviates from the GFS/ECM/CMC at this point by showing pcpn pretty much remaining south of the CWA while GFS/ECM/CMC shows TSRA expanding nwd into the CWA Tuesday night just ahead of the cold front approaching the nrn CWA. Believe that the potential for heavy rainfall is high over the nrn CWA...but not as much as what the GFS is suggesting/convective feedback. At any rate...cold frontal boundary is progged to drift swd on Wednesday/Wednesday night...thus best chance for pcpn south of I-80 corridor. As for temps....cold front will bring below normal max temps with a gradual downward trend going from highs in the upper 80s on Monday to upper 70s/low 80s on Wednesday. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 315 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 GFS/ECM/CMC in good agreement relatively cool conditions will prevail through the extended periods over the region with max temps generally in the mid/upper 70s. Next round of pcpn appears possible late Friday through into Saturday night. However...latest GFS and ECM are showing some discrepancies with QPF timing/placement. Going fcst has small pops in place...and given low confidence see little reason to make any changes.
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&& .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.) Issued at 1222 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Surface high pressure will cross the area today with the winds at the TAF sites becoming south/southwest with time. A low-level jet will develop tonight and likely bring LLWS to KOFK, but will leave it out of KOMA/KLNK. We may also see FEW-SCT mid-level clouds develop toward Monday morning at KOMA/KLNK. && .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...Boustead

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