Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 260436 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1136 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE SURFACE LOW WAS ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER REGION BETWEEN KONL AND KANW...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST NORTHEAST...AND COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND ALONG THE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE SD BORDER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY IS NOW APPROACHING 2000 J/KG OF CAPE...HOWEVER WIND SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THERE ALSO IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING AS ENERGY MOVES UP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS. SLIGHT RISK SEEMS ON TARGET AS A PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MOVES OVER THE REGION. FAVORED WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WOULD ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EXTREMELY WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT OVERALL TORNADO THREAT SEEMS LOW. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 50 TO 70 PERCENT POPS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. .SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015 GOOD MODELS CONSENSUS THAT LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS WEEK WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE SWRN STATES AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. ON TUESDAY...LINGERING PCPN ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN CWA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTN HOURS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL FINALLY BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 70S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015 SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE GOING FCST AS THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS RELATIVELY SLOW UPPER LVL LONGWAVE TROF CROSSING THE CNTRL CONUS ALONG WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRIVING DEEP TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IS LOW PINNING DOWN ANY MEANINGFUL POP DETAILS...OPT TO JUST MAINTAIN POPS THRU THE MAJORITY OF THIS WEEK. REGARDING TEMPS...HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. RATHER CHILLY CONDITIONS ON TAP THEN NEXT WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015 VARIABLE CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTION BUT A CHANCE WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER WAVE. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...FOBERT

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