Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 270249 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 949 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...(tonight through Thursday) Issued at 252 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 Manual analysis of 12z upper-air data revealed an intense mid to upper-level low over Ontario into the upper Great Lakes with an amplified upstream ridge from western Canada into the Great Basin. In the low levels, an elongated anticyclone stretched from the northern Intermountain Region into the southern High Plains as of early afternoon. Diurnal deepening of the boundary layer has promoted the downward transfer of higher momentum flow aloft with gusty west-northwest being observed across the area again this afternoon. Expect these winds to quickly diminish this evening with clear skies allowing overnight lows to fall into the lower to mid 40s. Tomorrow (Tue), west-northwesterly downslope flow in the low levels will allow for slightly warmer high temperatures (compared to today) with gusty surface winds again developing by afternoon. On Tuesday night into Wednesday, an intense vorticity lobe will pivot through the western semi-circle of the Great Lakes cyclone with an associated surface cold front advancing southwest through the mid Missouri Valley during that time frame. Modest cold advection will persist through the day Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 60s. A surface ridge axis will build into the area Wednesday night, potentially allowing temperatures to dip to near 40 degrees in favorable locations over the northern CWA. The surface ridge axis will persist over the region into Thursday with high temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 252 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 A deep-layer cyclone over the Ohio Valley at the onset of the extended period will slowly return north into the Great Lakes by this weekend while an upstream ridge weakens over the Great Plains. This pattern will yield continued dry conditions with daytime highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and overnight lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. By Sunday into Monday, 12z medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement in depicting the eastward movement/expansion of a broad trough through the interior west and Rockies. This upper-air pattern evolution will encourage the poleward flux of a more moist air mass through the Plains with an increasing chance of thunderstorms late Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.) Issued at 948 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle, with clear skies and unrestricted visibility. Light west to northwest winds tonight will become northwesterly at around 10-14kt on Tuesday afternoon, then weaken again after sunset. && .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mead LONG TERM...Mead AVIATION...Mayes

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