Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 232335 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 535 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014 COLD FRONT IS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES/PLAINS...WITH 145KT JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM OR/WA INTO NV BEHIND THE TROUGH. 850MB COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW IN SOUTHERN MB/NORTHERN ND/NORTHERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NEB/CENTRAL KS/WESTERN OK...WITH 4C+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL AB...COOL-DOWN IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS EARLIER THIS MONTH. SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN EAST-CENTRAL OK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SECONDARY LOW IN WESTERN ONT THROUGH EASTERN MN/CENTRAL IA/NORTHWESTERN MO...AND WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. TONIGHT...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...WITH STRATOCU DECK SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES UNDER THESE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH UPSTREAM VORT MAX PROVIDING JUST A LITTLE ADDITIONAL LIFT...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MAKE SOME RECOVERY ON TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS. THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS REGARDING STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT...MODELS DO SUGGEST A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR COMPACT UPPER LOW DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST WOULD INDICATE A POTENTIAL MIX OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW...BUT AGAIN...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS /IF ANY/ AS SOLUTIONS KEEP THE MORE MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014 COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO SPILL INTO THE PLAINS/MIDWEST IN WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN CARRY A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...EXTENDING FROM WESTERN SD INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEB. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS MATERIALIZING...AND IF SO...WHERE/WHEN...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN CWA. THANKSGIVING DAY IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE IN THE REGION...BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THOUGH BLACK FRIDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE...WITH WARMING ABOVE FREEZING LATER ON FRIDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COLD AIR INTRUSION SOMETIME AROUND THE WEEKEND IN WAKE OF ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 532 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014 VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING MVFR CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP AT KOFK BY 04Z...AND KOMA/KLNK BY 07Z. COULD ALSO SEE SOME FLURRIES AT KOFK 06-10Z. DEPENDING ON HOW THEY DEVELOP...MAY HAVE TO ADD TO KOMA LATER ON...BUT NOTHING MEASURABLE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR BY 16Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL AT 18 TO 24 KNOTS SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 TO 34 KNOTS AT TIMES.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MAYES LONG TERM...MAYES AVIATION...DEWALD

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