Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 190914 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 314 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(today through Saturday) Issued at 310 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017 Low clouds working slowly north at 08Z from western and central Kansas into central Nebraska in advance of 850mb trough over western Nebraska. 500 mb closed low was also in the area centered over south central Nebraska. Cloudy skies are expected to gradually overspread the forecast area today as upper low moves toward northeast Kansas with short range models showing some slight deepening during this time. Temperatures remain above freezing across the area early this morning and are expected to climb into the 40s by afternoon. Will only mention patchy fog for a time this morning and mainly in northeast Nebraska where latest short range models spread the stratus. Temperatures will likely have a more limited diurnal range in areas where clouds arrive first this morning. Have also removed mention of drizzle for today as low level moisture comes in slower than indicated by previous days models. Periods of drizzle and fog become more likely tonight into Friday as the upper system works north across the area with lingering low level moisture in advance of the next wave moving into the area on Friday. With better moisture and forcing associated with this second system rain chances increase Friday night then decrease from south to north on Saturday as the system lifts into the upper midwest. Temperatures again are expected to remain above freezing Friday night keeping precipitation all liquid. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 310 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017 Remainder of the weekend into early next week looks dry with temperatures remaining above seasonal normals. Change comes into the picture by Tuesday however as another strong upper level system comes out of the central Rockies and onto the plains. This system will have colder air available with wintry conditions expected to return to the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. There will be a chance of snow for northeast Nebraska on Tuesday with rain changing to snow in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa by Tuesday afternoon or evening extending into Tuesday night. Snow diminishes on Wednesday as the primary system moves off to the northeast.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 Variable conditions are expected at the TAF sites through the next 24 hours beginning with VFR at all 3 sites. Conditions are expected to deteriorate through the early morning hours. Will need to watch the area of dense fog across south central Iowa as it spreads north/northwest. Model guidance does keep this out of KOMA but not sure if that will be the case. Otherwise, expansive mid deck continues to stream north out of Kansas. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected by sunrise and will continue into the afternoon and evening. Will keep any pcpn mention out of the TAFs at this point with better chances after this TAF cycle. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fobert LONG TERM...Fobert AVIATION...Kern is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.