Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 172312 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 612 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017 Pleasant fall conditions continued today as highs have climbed into the 70s across the forecast area with a south breeze. Diffluent westerly flow aloft dominated the Plains, helping to support the dry conditions, and while there was a weak mid level trough evident in water vapor imagery dropping across Nebraska this afternoon, the system was moisture starved and will result in littler more than a few high clouds. Farther west, a stronger storm system was over British Columbia, moving quickly east. This strong trough will approach Lake Superior by Wednesday afternoon, pushing a cold front into the local area by this time as well. Temperatures will drop off a few degrees while wind shifts out of the northwest, but otherwise expect another pleasant fall day on Wednesday. Surface high pressure behind the weakening front will be centered over the area by Thursday morning, and lows will fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Thursday into Friday will feature ridging over the Great Lakes, and a deepening trough over the northern Rockies with strengthening southwest flow aloft over the local area. Will see an intensifying surface low in the lee of the Rockies with a strong pressure gradient locally supporting warmer temperatures and gusty south winds. By Friday, wind speeds will probably be gusting toward 40 mph while overnight lows are expected to hold in the upper 50s to around 60. Wind speeds and Thursday night low temperatures were targeted for improvement in this forecast due to those factors. Do expect dry conditions through Friday and will have to consider potential for heightened fire danger on Thursday and Friday afternoon as RH drops and winds increase given relatively dry fields and grasses this time of year. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017 Friday night into Saturday evening will feature the upper trough crossing the Plains. It is likely to take on a positive tilt which should force a rather strong cold front quickly south. The speed of the front will play a substantial role in both high temperatures and precip chances on Saturday, and at this time favor a slightly faster progression of the surface front. Could see some scattered thunderstorm activity across much of the area Friday night but would not expect everyone to see precipitation. Then on Saturday...again dependent on front timing...expect the best chance for thunderstorms to be along and south of a Seward to Onawa line but given that it`s a solid 4 days away and timing could change, did not get too specific with the official rain chance forecast. Could see a few strong storms along the cold front, but this seems more likely farther south...especially given the current expectation for a relatively early front passage prior to peak heating. Cooler temperatures and generally dry conditions are expected through the remainder of the forecast with a northwesterly flow pattern taking over aloft. This would suggest additional cold fronts will be in the near future, with a rather strong one scheduled for Monday and additional cold air surges seemingly likely later next week. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 607 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017 VFR conditions expected thru the fcst pd.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch LONG TERM...Barjenbruch AVIATION...DEE

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