Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 301730 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015 CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS. GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PCPN CHANCES COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND POTENT VORT MAX MIGRATING ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSES WITH PCPN POTENTIAL. AND WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAKENING OF LOW/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...TOKEN 20S SEEM REASONABLE. TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY STRONG 310K UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADV. GIVEN NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON HAND...SEEMS REASONABLE TO JUST CONTINUE SMALL POPS AT THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015 LARGE SCALE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF PREVAILING WEST AND RIDGING EAST WITH ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED. SMALL PCPN CHANCE WED NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE ERN CWA WHERE POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. AS FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL GIVEN RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE UPPER PATTERN AND PREFER TO AGAIN GO WITH TOKEN 20S. && .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015 WHILE FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AT KOFK WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING AT KOMA AND KLNK BY AROUND 22Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING REMAINS LOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KOFK THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWER VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AS MORE FOG DEVELOPS.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...KG

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