Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 201747 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...(today through Saturday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 Forecast concerns today will be showers/sprinkles ending, clouds today and Friday along with temperatures, then warmer weather for the weekend. At 06Z...two h7 waves were over eastern Nebraska and the second over west central Nebraska. Ahead of each of these H7 wind shifts were a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms in southeast Nebraska. The Hi-res ARW/NMM picked up on this first area yesterday (although not strong enough) and the HRRR was catching on to the trend of increasing coverage as well. The first band of showers/trailing sprinkles will generally be moving southeast of the forecast area around 12Z or so; the start of forecast period, while the second area has progressed into central Nebraska. During the morning the progs weaken this lagging energy in the northwest flow aloft. The GFS/Hi-res ARW/NMM limp the precip toward Antelope county before dissipating it. Will leave in some low pops/sprinkles/drizzle toward Neligh and adjust as needed per latest WSR-88D/model trends. Low clouds are expected to remain over parts of northeast Nebraska into early afternoon with mid clouds for parts of the rest of the cwa. The OMA forecast soundings are moist this morning through 09z...then dry out...then moisten up again this afternoon and again Friday within the strong warm air advection regime. Much cooler today with highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Cooler temperatures for tonight as the surface high pressure system settles southward. Lows are forecast in the 30s. The growing season has ended with most areas experiencing a freeze earlier this month, no frost/freeze headlines are done for the season. Mid level ridging increases with thickening clouds Friday in an area of h7 warm air advection. A wave tops the ridge across the Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Precipitation should be well to our northeast where the better vertical motion is although there could be some virga with the waa clouds. H85 temperatures start out at 4-6deg C. and by 00Z warm to 8 to 10deg C. Forecast soundings show better mixing in the western part of the forecast area where highs should range from 65 to 70 toward OFK/LNK/OLU and farther east into western Iowa, readings should top out 60 to 65. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 The mid tropospheric ridge is over the Central Plains through the weekend although a shortwave tracking across southern Canada into the northern states does dampen it and drag a front through Sunday. Increased winds behind the front Sunday. Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are forecast through the weekend with highs in the 60s and 70s. Once that shortwave progresses to the Great Lakes, the ridge re-builds for Monday. Monday night into Tuesday unsettled weather begins to return to parts of the Plains with some isolated showers and thunderstorms. The GFS is stronger with the shortwave Tuesday that breaks down the ridge compare to the EC, however by Tuesday night they are in better agreement with the thunderstorm activity from the Missouri River into Iowa. High remain above normal Monday through Wednesday with highs in the 60s and 70s. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 High pressure will settle over the region through 06z then move east thereafter with southerly winds returning on the backside of the high. A period of MVFR cigs likely at KOFK through 00z as secondary short wave trough over the eastern Dakotas shifts east into the Upper Midwest during that time. VFR cigs expected at both KOMA and KLNK into the evening before dissipating with transition of Dakotas trough to the east.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Zapotocny LONG TERM...Zapotocny AVIATION...Fobert is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.