Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 212311 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 511 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED 3 SYSTEMS OF INTERESTS OVER THE CNTRL AND WRN US. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED OVER ERN CO/WRN KS...THE NEXT OVER THE DESERTS SW...AND FINALLY A SHRTWV TROUGH IN THE GULF OF AK. ALL 3 OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE WX ACRS THE CWA OVER THE SHRT TERM PERIOD. THE CO/KS SHRTWV TROF HAS SHIFTED NEWD PER EARLY AFTN WV IMAGERY AND WAS LOCATED OVER NRN KS. THIS WILL CONT TO TRACK NEWD TONIGHT INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE 12Z 850 MB ANALYSIS INDICATED GOOD QUALITY MOISTURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS /850 MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6 G/KG INTO NRN TX/...AND THIS WAS BEING ADVECTED NWD AHEAD OF THE KS SHRTWV TROUGH. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONT TO STREAM NEWD THROUGH THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FA THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DOES INDC SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE RETURN...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER ERN KS/WRN MO. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP THE SRN CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTN AND INTO THE EARLY EVNG HOURS AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST. HAVE CUT BACK ON THE DZ MENTION THIS EVENING AS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS OF GOOD QUALITY...THE LIFT ATOP THIS MOISTURE QUICKLY EXITS. ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT DOES FALL THIS EVNG IN THE SE CWA WILL BE LIQUID AS TMPS ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY SLICK SPOTS ON SIDEWALKS AND PARKING LOTS AS THOSE SURFACES COULD STILL BE NEAR FREEZING...BUT OTHER ROAD SENSORS INDC PAVEMENT TEMPS ALL ABOVE FREEZING. LATEST SHRT RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO INDCS THAT FOG MAY BE A PROBLEM TONIGHT AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR OVER-RIDES THE COLD GROUND. THE NW CWA...NEAR THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS MAY BE THE FAVORED SPOT FOR ANY DENSE FOG...BUT WILL MENTION SOME FOG EVERYWHERE. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE SW AND THEN W OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE PASSES AND THIS MAY HELP TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE STRATUS/FOG EARLY ON SAT MRNG. THE FORECAST WILL TREND THIS WAY PER GFS/EC/GEM AND HAVE INCREASED HIGHS ON SAT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN SUN EXPECTED. THE NEXT SHRTWV TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SW/ WILL EJECT INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT AND BRING A RETURNED NWD MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE FA. THIS SET-UP APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE FOR DZ LATE SAT EVNG THRU THE NIGHT AS THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS WELL TIMED WITH SEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE. WILL CONT WITH SOME LOW-CHC POPS IN THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FA IN CASE SOME OF THE DZ MEASURES...BUT IT LOOKS MOSTLY LIKE A DZ/FG EVENT. TEMPERATURES AND DEWS WILL CONT TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SAT AND SO NO ISSUES WITH FREEZING PRECIP EXPECTED. THE FINAL SHRTWV TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT AND WILL DRAG A STRONG CDFNT THROUGH THE FA BY EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD AGAIN CLEAR THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE FA WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA ON SUN NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CAA. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A GOOD SC DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDC A GOOD PART OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO FLURRIES ARE A GOOD BET LATE SUN NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING GOES TO OUR NE THOUGH SO WE DON`T EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014 THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL AGAIN BE DOMINATED BY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE FLOW AGAIN GOES TO THE NW OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A SERIES OF WEAK WX DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK SEWD THROUGH THIS FAST FLOW...BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT AT THIS RANGE IS VERY DIFFICULT. THE BEST SHOT AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP APPEARS TO BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY POPS ATTM. WED AND THU MRNG APPEAR TO BE THE COLDEST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING DOWN THE MO RIVER VALLEY. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 506 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014 MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLNK/KOMA THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THEN SCATTERS BACK OUT BY 12-16Z TOMORROW MORNING. MOISTURE THEN RETURNS WITH CONDITIONS BACK TO MVFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE SOUTHEAST OF THESE TWO LOCATIONS...NOT SURE IT WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST. KOFK WILL BE VFR INITIALLY...BUT MVFR DECK SHOULD MOVE INTO THAT AREA BEFORE 06Z...THEN BECOME IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS DO NOT MAKE IT TO KOFK...THEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS AT KLNK/KOMA ALSO BECOME LIFR AND WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD AVIATION...DEWALD

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