Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 251730 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1130 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015 SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE ENDING OF RAIN/SNOW... STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS/WIND HEADLINE...AND TEMPERATURES. THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS ON TRACK AND WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION (RAIN/SNOW/MIX)...COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO A MAJOR WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING WAS SATURATED ABOVE 740MB AND DURING THE EVENING THE FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN MOVED THROUGH. THE 160KT H3 JET WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONTANA INTO COLORADO AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. AT 09Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF DES MOINES WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC/METARS SHOWED LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW WAS BEING REPORTED. THE COLD POCKET IN THE THERMAL PROFILES NEAR WAYNE AND NORFOLK HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN THE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS HAVE PICKED UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED-SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MAX LIFT IS EAST OF THE AREA AND OMEGA IS ON THE WANE. ONLY AN ADDITIONAL TRACE TO LESS THAN 0.05 IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY/PROTECTED SURFACES WOULD BE SLIGHT AND SHOULD MELT FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE CORE OF THE STRONGER WINDS IS MOVING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ADVISORY TO ACCOMMODATE THIS. THE OMAHA METRO WAS ON THE FRINGE AND FET HAD BEEN BACK AND FORTH WITH WINDS 25-28KTS...SO INCLUDED ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. AT LAST CHECK LNK WAS 29G40KT AND NEBRASKA CITY 25G31KTS HOWEVER THE WINDS HAVE BEEN QUITE VARIABLE. THE HEADLINE RUNS UNTIL 9AM. THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS BY 6PM. SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST. MID LEVEL RIDGING AND WESTERLY FLOW USHERS IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE FOR MONDAY. COULD WE SEE RECORD WARMTH? PROBABLY NOT. RIGHT NOW WE ARE LOOKING AT HIGHS MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE RECORDS ARE 68 SET IN 2002 AT BOTH OMAHA AND LINCOLN AND 74 AT NORFOLK SET IN 2002. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INHIBIT THE MIXING...THUS TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S AND 60S...JUST NOT FULLY REALIZING THEIR MAX TEMP POTENTIAL. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015 MORE WARM TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WEATHER SYSTEM IS PRETTY DRY...SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE ANY RAIN MENTIONED WITH IT. COOLER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS...HOWEVER THESE WINDS SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS/EC/GEM ARE CONSISTENT FRIDAY IN THAT A MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF WILL EXTEND FM MONTANA SOUTHWEST TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA. THEY DIFFER ON HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY EVOLVES AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY GETS CUT OFF AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON IT/S PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND NOW KEEPS IT TO THE SOUTH. THE EC ALLOWS AN ARCTIC FRONT WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO IMPACT THE PLAINS EARLIER.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015 MVFR CIGS NEAR FL015 WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF SITES INTO THE EVENING. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER CLEARING WILL WAIT UNTIL THE EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY 06Z AT ALL SITES. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NE...NONE. IA...NONE.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...DERGAN

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