Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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018 FXUS63 KOAX 011118 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 518 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(today through Saturday) Issued at 247 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 No active weather progged heading into this weekend. Good agreement amongst the medium range models a Pac NW shortwave trof moving into the Central Plains will induce the next round of pcpn Saturday night. Pcpn initiation is progged to occur generally over wrn KS Saturday aftn then expand newd toward the CWA. However..expansion of activity though will be curbed as it approaches the I-80 corridor where condensation deficit become increasing unfavorable to allow for saturation to occur. Thus will gear POPs to reflect this. As for pcpn type...wet bulb temps suggest RA/SN mix during the evening hours...then SN aft midnight with no significant accumulations expected. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 247 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 ECM/GFS/CMC solutions in one degree or another advertise the potential for a potent winter storm system affecting the Central Plains next Tues/Wed/Thurs. Because of model consistency the last couple runs indicating the possibly of this event...confidence at this point is somewhat higher. However...there it is still too much uncertainty with respect to timing/SN amounts/placement to try and pin down details. As for temps...the bottom falls out heading into next week as both the ECMMOS/MEX/EKDMOS all prog lows in the single digits come Thursday morning at KOMA.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 518 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 As of 11z, surface observations indicated the western edge of MVFR ceilings stretched from KONL to KLNK to KFNB. This cloud edge has oscillated longitudinally overnight, but a concerted eastward advance is anticipated today into this evening. Expect prevailing VFR conditions at KLNK by about 18z, and closer to 00z at KOMA and KOFK. Winds will be lighter than previous days; at around 10 kt from the northwest.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...Mead

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