Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 180448 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1148 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014 POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS TONIGHT...WARMER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH COLD FRONT SATURDAY ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. AREA OF STRATUS COVERING THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA THIS MORNING HAS FINALLY BROKEN UP THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAD PUSHED TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ALL AREAS TODAY. HIGH DEW POINTS WERE JUST ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER WHERE UPPER 60S READINGS WERE NOTED IN KANSAS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BRING THAT MOISTURE NORTH...LEADING TO SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND FOG. HAVE INSERTED THIS MENTION IN THE GRIDS. ALSO...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...FOCUSED MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WILL GENERATE SOME CONVECTION THERE AS WARM ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THOSE COULD WORK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST AND LINGER IN THE WEST DURING THE MORNING. THEN WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION IN CHECK IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET CAUSED BY UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL AGAIN PRODUCE ELEVATED CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA WHERE SPEED CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. MILD LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A GOOD WARMUP ON FRIDAY AS SUNSHINE AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK. AS NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR CWA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS STILL LOOKING LIKE IT WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS KANSAS...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCAPES TO TOP 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF FRONT SATURDAY. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE AS FRONT SETTLES INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. HAVE FAIRLY HIGH POPS THEN. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014 WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR LINGERING CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR SOUTH...BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY. THEN A SOMEWHAT COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING CANADIAN AIR INTO THE PLAINS. BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE THE 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO WANDER INTO THE PLAINS BY MID WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014 INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS BAND OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SPREAD SOUTHEAST. A PERIOD OF STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z AT ALL THREE SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ON BACKSIDE OF GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...FOBERT

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