Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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677 FXUS63 KOAX 251431 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 931 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 927 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016 Updated the forecast to slow down the arrival of precip. Latest HRRR/RAP/ESL HRRR/Nam models generally suggest that precip chances will hold off until after 6 pm. Highres NMM/ARW Nam models from 00z still suggest that isolated storms could develop in northeast NE late this afternoon, but it seems the better chances will hold off until tonight and have adjusted grids accordingly.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(today through Thursday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016 Latest model solutions confirm going fcst over the next several days is in pretty good shape. The feature of interest this morning remains shortwave trof ejecting out of the central Rockies with convective development expected later this afternoon. Good agreement amongst the models increasing DPVA induces leeside surface low pressure with impressive boundary layer theta-E advection for this time of the year ensuing. By late this afternoon the RAP13 progs rapid destabilization with MLCAPEs peaking around 2000 J/KG. However...the RAP13 is also suggesting initiation will probably be delayed until until late afternoon and occur on the edge of the cap extending roughly from nern Neb to w-cntrl IA. At this point it appears to be at least a marginal threat for severe storm development mainly south of the I-80 corridor along a lifting warm front where effective shear/instability will be maximized. Pcpn activity will likely expand then in areal coverage during the evening hours with onset of llvl jet. In is quite possible locally heavy rainfall will be realized come early Wednesday morning given environmental moisture will be plentiful with well above normal PWS values peaking around 1.5". Dry and quite pleasant conditions on tap then Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016 No significant changes needed in the extended periods as the medium range models continue to advertise benign weather into next weekend along with above normal temps. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016 VFR cigs near FL050 and southeast winds increasing to 15kt will be the story of the first half of the TAF period through 00Z. There is a small chance an isolated shower could develop near KOMA during the day, however. Low pressure will move into eastern Nebraska this evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected near KOFK and KOMA, but may develop northeast of KLNK area. There will be a several hour period between 00Z and 06Z when storms could affect all TAF sites with attendant MVFR cigs/vsbys. Most precipitation potential will be east of TAF sites by 06Z. After 06Z, MVFR cigs near FL015 are expected to spread southeast across KOFK and KOMA areas, but again should remain northeast of KLNK. There is a chance cigs will lower to IFR by 12Z at KOMA and KOFK with areas of MVFR fog. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...DeWald SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...Dergan is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.