Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 220420 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1120 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014 ALTHOUGH SMALL THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE PREVALENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...MOST LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FOCUS. UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT NEWD ACROSS MID MO VALLEY WITH 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM OAX/LBF/ABR/TOP INDICATING A WELL MIXED ELEVATED LAYER HAD SPREAD OVER FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A STRONG CAP THIS EVENING AND INHIBIT PROBABLY EVERYTHING TONIGHT BUT SOME VERY ELEVATED REMNANT ACTIVITY THAT MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT ROLLS OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF NEBR/KS THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE LAST MINUTE PRECIP INCLUSION. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ATTEMPTING TO WORK INTO WRN ZONES COULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP A LITTLE MORE THAN PREV FCST IF IT WOULD SPREAD A BIT FARTHER E...BUT FOR NOW MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT WITH SOME MID/UPPER 70S POSSIBLE SERN ZONES. STRONGER WAVE LIFTING ACROSS DAKOTAS THIS EVENING WILL SEND A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO NERN NEBR IA LATE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY THRU THE FA ON TUESDAY. COOLING INITIALLY NOT VERY GOOD DIRECTLY BEHIND FRONT AND THUS READINGS COULD PROBABLY STILL REACH MID 90S AS FAR NORTH AS NEAR HIGHWAY 30 DESPITE THE SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS BEFORE 18Z THERE. CURRENT PLACEMENT OF HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS OK AS DEW POINTS COULD LOWER A BIT IN NRLY FLOW DESPITE AIRMASS WARMING. NO CHANGES THERE. LEFT IN SMALL POPS FROM LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING FAR SOUTHERN ZONES EITHER DUE TO COMBINATION OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG HEATING LATE IN THE AFTN OR A DEW POINT FRONT TRAILING COOL FRONT OVERCOMING STRONG CAP. HOWEVER...DID TRIM POPS SOMEWHAT AS DOUBTS PERSIST. DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS TO THE FA WITH LITTLE CHANGES MADE. THETA E ADVECTION COMMENCES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS MOIST LAYER IN H85-H7 BEGINS SHIFTING TOWARD FA. COVERAGE QUESTIONABLE AS UPPER HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COULD BEGIN SHIFTING OVER AREA AT THAT SAME TIME. ALTHOUGH COULD FORESEE POPS NEEDING TO BE SPREAD FARTHER SE THURSDAY...AT THIS TIME KEPT THEM IN NERN NEBR CLOSER TO MID LEVEL CAP/S EDGE. IF CONVECTION AND/OR DEBRIS SPREADS FARTHER SE COULD SEE THE NEED IN TRIMMING MAX TEMPS A BIT...BUT FOR NOW NO CHANGES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014 LEFT IN POPS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR MO RIVER FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COOL FRONT FRI NIGHT. WOULD THINK UNLESS CLOUDS/PRECIP ARE WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY THAT HIGHS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 90 WEST OF THE RIVER AND ADJUSTED UP A LITTLE FROM BLEND. FIRST COOL FRONT SHOULD KNOCK SEVERAL DEGREES OFF HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A REINFORCING FRONT PROVIDING EVEN MORE COOLING BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW LEFT FORECAST DRY WITH SECOND FRONT. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL DEAL WITH TIMING OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. FLOW REMAINS WEAK BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ034-043>045-050>053- 065>068-078-088>093. IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079- 080-090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHERMOK LONG TERM...CHERMOK AVIATION...FOBERT

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