Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 151004 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 404 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SHORT TERM...(today through Tuesday) Issued at 404 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017 ...Significant Ice Storm Still Expected Today Through Monday... Early morning water vapor imagery indicated the closed deep-layer cyclone continued to rotate slowly east through northern Mexico. Downstream the 00Z upper air analysis indicated a 100+ kt H25 jet locked into place from the central Plains into the Great Lakes. Broad diffluent flow ahead of the cyclone and the ageostrophic circulation associated with the entrance region of this jet was creating forcing for large-scale ascent over the Plains with a large shield of precipitation over KS/OK, and even some lighter activity moving along the KS/NEb border. The 00Z KOAX sounding indicated we still had a good deal of dry air to overcome associated with the ridge axis around H85, but we should slowly see this erode through the day today. We will likely see periods of light precipitation in the south through the morning associated with this pattern that will slowly work north through the afternoon. Although the majority of this activity will be light freezing rain we have introduced some mix with rain over the central CWA where we have increased highs in the mid 30s. We have delayed the onset of the warning for today for areas along and north of highway 30 where we have removed pops until after 00Z. Models are in general agree with the period from tonight through Monday although the GFS appeared to dry. We should continue to see the light freezing rain move north through the area this evening associated with the broad isentropic ascent. Late tonight as the cyclone moves into the southern Plains the deformation band will lift northward through KS and into the southern CWA, most likely after 09Z. This band, although weakening in intensity with northward extent, will continue to lift through the area on Monday. We are likely to see our highest ice accumulations during this time. We have lowered going highs on Monday, but this was mainly due to the ongoing precip and clouds. We still expect areas south of a line from HNR-OMA-LNK to climb slightly above freezing during the morning on Monday. To the northwest of this line temperatures should stay at or below freezing through the event. Freezing rain is expected up to around LCG/OFK/BVN line with a mix of some sleet and freezing rain to the northwest. Point forecast soundings are consistent that some cooler air will work into this area during the afternoon with the precipitation becoming snow through the afternoon and evening. We have some 2-4 in accumulations indicated in parts of Knox/Antelope/Cedar counties. The cold air will work southeast through Monday evening with the freezing rain ending as some light snow for the rest of the CWA. We have adjusted some of the higher ice accumulations a bit farther northwest with the most significant amounts from around Fairbury and Seward up through Wahoo and Tekamah, although we have warning criteria for all locations southeast of a line from SUX to OLU. Other than some minor timing changes to the headlines we made no changes with this package. We are not likely to meet warning criteria in the northwest with either snow or ice, but will stay with the warning for now with decent impacts expected. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 404 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017 A marked warming trend is still expected into the middle and latter half of the work week. Longer range models are fairly consistent indicating additional precipitation chances as we head toward next weekend, but little chance to look at this part of the forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1130 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017 Overall, look for decreasing cloud bases overnight and into Sunday. The main precipitation should hold off until the afternoon Sunday, but KLNK could see some freezing rain in the morning. IFR conditions possible at KLNK by late afternoon and IFR conditions possible at KOMA by Sunday evening. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM CST Tuesday for NEZ015-032>034-042>045. Ice Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Tuesday for NEZ065-066-068-078- 088>093. Ice Storm Warning from noon today to 3 AM CST Tuesday for NEZ050>053-067. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM CST Tuesday for NEZ011-012-016>018-030-031. IA...Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM CST Tuesday for IAZ043-055-056. Ice Storm Warning from noon today to 3 AM CST Tuesday for IAZ069- 079-080-090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boustead LONG TERM...Boustead AVIATION...Miller

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