Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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367 FXUS63 KOAX 302045 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 245 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 .SHORT TERM...(tonight through Saturday) Issued at 245 CST Wed Nov 30 2016 Main concerns in the short term are cloud cover and potential for any light precipitation. Stacked lower and mid tropospheric low centered near the MN/WI border early this afternoon continued to drop slowly southeast. That will become less of a factor with time. A fairly potent trough was moving into the western United States, with 12 hour height falls of up to 170 meters at 500 mb this morning along the WA coasts. Impressive 300 mb winds, in excess of 150 knots, were noted from southwest MO up into ME. Tonight, clouds currently over the area will likely hold tight. The exception to that is over the southwest and far southern parts of the area, where models show lower amounts of moist at and below 850 mb. Lows should be mostly in the mid and upper 20s but could drop lower than that, if skies become mostly clear. Some flurries will be possible, mainly into this evening, especially northern and eastern parts of the forecast area. Moisture depth decreases after that, so flurries would not be as likely. Surface pressure gradient will be decreasing tonight and Thursday as a ridge of high pressure builds east into the area. So, the trend will be for diminishing winds. Temperatures will remain cool Thursday, moderate slightly Friday and then warm a little more for Saturday afternoon. Trough initially digging into the west today should start to form a closed mid level low on Friday near the border of Mexico and AZ. Meanwhile the combination of a trough moving into the northern and central portions of the Plains on Saturday, and some moisture moving up from the south could give us a small chance of rain. The 12Z GFS model was the most bullish with rain potential for our area Saturday, and for now that seemed overdone. Will include a slight chance for our far southeast NE counties for now, and see what later model runs show. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 Have some low POPs in for Saturday night, but not overly thrilled with precipitation potential in our area at that time. Chances do look better farther to the south and east. High temperatures should continue to moderate a little Sunday and Monday, with 40s expected to be common. Farther out, for Monday and beyond, even though there is fairly good agreement with the large scale features - there is a big range in potential for precipitation in our area. The GFS is fairly wet for Monday, while the ECMWF is mainly dry for that period. There is a little better agreement now for precipitation chances Monday night. If it precipitates, it would start out as rain and then could mix with or change to snow. Confidence is still fairly low at this point, since there has been model to model and run to run variation for what may occur in our area next week. There is fairly good agreement showing a trend for colder temperatures, starting Tuesday and continuing for Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1111 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 MVFR conditions are expected to continue at all sites through the rest of today. Can`t rule out a few flurries at the sites, especially KOFK and possibly KOMA, but with visibilities likely to remain at or above 6SM and no accumulation expected, have kept mention out for now. VFR conditions may return to KLNK around sunset, but kept MVFR ceilings through the end of the TAF cycle at KOMA/KOFK. Gusty northwest winds will decrease a bit at sunset and continuing through Thursday morning. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Miller LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...Mayes

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