Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 142023 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 323 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014 FAST PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ALTERNATING PERIODS OF SPRING TO WINTER CONDITIONS. UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AT MID AFTERNOON WITH SPOTTY INSTABILITY SHOWERS BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES SPREADING INTO EASTERN PARTS OF NEBRASKA BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. QUICK RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP CHANCES STAYING NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO NORTHERN IOWA ON WEDNESDAY IT DRAGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF POPS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DRY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE THEN STALLS ACROSS KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS OVERRUNNING PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO SEE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM GUIDANCE THERE ON THURSDAY AS WELL AS A RESULT OF EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUDS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014 UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING. MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WAVES THAT COME ACROSS OVER THE EASTER WEEKEND SO RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE WITH POPS DURING THIS TIME. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES INDICATED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BOTH GFS AND EURO AMPLIFY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
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&& .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014 A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE INTO NCNTRL NEBR AT 18Z WILL SPREAD CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS TAF SITES THROUGH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE FL040. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY THE CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT KOFK. A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS COULD PRECEDE DISTURBANCE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING WINDS AGAIN LATER THIS AFTN THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AGAIN. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...CHERMOK

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