Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 192109 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 3:10 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014 .DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...THEN RAIN/SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WERE HANGING TOUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA TODAY. HOWEVER SOME CLEARING WAS NOTED IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA WORKING EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY GET INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...BUT PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE POINTS TO A REINFORCEMENT OF CLOUDS/FOG OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SIMILAR IN MOIST/CLOUD DEPTH COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN A DEEP LAYER JUST ABOVE CLOUD TOP SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT 04Z TO 12Z. TEMPERATURES WILL SLIP BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS...SO FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LIKELY. HOWEVER EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS SUGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. SIMILAR SITUATION IS FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF OUR AREA. CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE MOST PART ON SATURDAY AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT CONTINUES. THUS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S FROM MORNING LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 20S OR LOW 30S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER TOP OF SURFACE FRONT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING IN OUR WEST IN THE EVENING AND SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES COMBINED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE PROGS POINT TO MAINLY A RAIN EVENT THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY. NAM IS COOLEST OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WOULD CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA BEFORE ENDING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION WING ALOFT. HOWEVER COULD SEE LINGERING RAIN IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C MOST OF THE CWA. MID LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON MAY IGNITE SNOW SHOWERS THERE. TEMPS MONDAY SHOULD HIT HIGHS IN THE MORNING NORTH AND EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH BEFORE FALLING AS STRONGER COOL ADVECTION INVADES. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING ON TUESDAY. CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL RESULT DURING THIS TIME. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY POTENT STORM SYSTEM SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SHALLOW UPPER RIDGING WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPS SOMEWHAT. BY THURSDAY...INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OR EAST WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS IS WEAKER THAN ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM AND JUST BRUSHES NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF HAS A MORE WOUND UP SURFACE LOW WITH A FAVORABLE SNOW-PRODUCING TRACK THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND PAINTS ABOUT A HALF INCH OF QPF ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLES OF GFS/ECMWF ARE OFFERING WIDE VARIATION IN POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...SO HAVE BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN LATE WEEK FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS ONE FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR A TRAVEL-HEAVY WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014 REGIONAL OBS REPORTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN NEB THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...FALSE COLOR SATL IMAGERY REVEALING BACK EDGE OF CLEARING OVER CNTRL NEB WAS MAKING ITS WAY EWD. GIVEN TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...APPEARS THAT ALL SITE WILL SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID AFTN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THOUGH EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER TONIGHT WITH FLGT CAT DROPPING INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KOFK AND KOMA...AND MVFR AT KLNK BTWN 10Z- 14Z SAT MORNING. SHOULD SEE QUICK IMPROVEMENT THEN TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...DEE

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