Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KOAX 192321 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 621 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014 BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN LINGERS OVER THE CENTRAL US. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NOTED ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER...IN SOUTHERN CA...AND IN OR/WA. UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS DESCENDING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH STRONGEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...AND WITH SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IN TX/LA. SURFACE LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ONT...WITH WIND SHIFT FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH MN TO NEAR KFSD TO NEAR KLBF TO SECONDARY LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST CO...BUT LITTLE TEMPERATURE OR MOISTURE GRADIENT WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL TO UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...THEN IS REPLACED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE CONTINUED NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND ABOVE-NORMAL MAX TEMPS. SOUTHERN PLAINS MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS IN WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THAT REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WHILE EASTERN NEB AND EASTWARD REMAINS DRY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014 UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL TAP MOISTURE STREAMING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME THUNDER WITH THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS MODELS DO HINT AT SOME MUCAPE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850MB IN ITS WAKE. 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO JUMP INTO THE MID TEENS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MODEL BLEND...BUT BELIEVE CURRENT FORECAST COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ON THE COOL SIDE YET. WARM TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014 VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 9Z AT KOMA/KLNK...BUT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 KNOTS. WINDS THEN GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MAYES LONG TERM...MAYES AVIATION...DEWALD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.