Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 231703 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1203 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Relatively cool and tranquil weather is slated for this weekend. Cold front had moved south of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa early Friday morning, however a few showers and thunderstorms trailed the front, affecting southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa through about 4 AM. More showers were noted across western and central Nebraska drifting to the east. These were tied to mid level shortwave dropping southeast through the Northern High Plains. Short range hi-res models were picking up on this activity, and most drag at least isolated showers into eastern Nebraska this morning before shortwave passes by around 18Z. Otherwise precipitation chances are rather slim through the weekend as moisture is scoured out behind exiting shortwave, and persistent northwest flow at the surface and aloft keep it that way. That flow will also maintain a relatively cool airmass in the Plains as several weak cool fronts settle into the region. 850 temps remain a couple of degrees either side of 10C ahead of and behind those fronts, suggesting surface temps in the 70s for afternoon highs each day today through Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 A return to more June-like weather begins to take shape next week when precipitation chances return and we see temperatures rebound back into the 80s. Core of northwest mid level flow will work east of our area by Monday night with shortwave ridge axis nosing in on Tuesday. That will be short-lived as more zonal flow takes over Tuesday night through Thursday as trough in central Canada begins to settle south. Surface high pressure over the Plains into early Monday will slide east, allowing southerly low level flow to begin northward push of higher dew points. Precipitation chances begin as early as Monday when ECMWF paints a swath of QPF across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa when right entrance region of mid level jet streak induces weak lift on nose of returning moisture. Better chances begin Monday night in our west as low level jet kicks in there, with a gradual eastward expansion of those higher winds Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Therefore generally late night and early morning convection should be favored in this regime. By Thursday, a weak frontal boundary settles into the region, providing a focus for afternoon convection then. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 A fast-moving shortwave trough traversing the mid MO Valley has brought isolated to widely scattered showers to the region which should end at KOMA and KLNK within the next hour or two. Otherwise, expect gusty northwest winds to diminish by early evening with a decrease in mid and high-level clouds.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dergan LONG TERM...Dergan AVIATION...Mead

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