Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KOAX 170110 AAA AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 810 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014 .UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISSUED AT 810 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014 LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM BUT A FEW SITES MAY BE AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO DECREASE THOUGH AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. DROPPED LOWS A FEW DEGREES AND INCREASED CLOUDS SOUTH...OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014 FRONT IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND TEMPS BEHIND IT HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S WITH 30S NOT TOO FAR AWAY. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE WIND AND FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT WILL TRIM BACK A FEW COUNTIES WHERE THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. IT`S ALSO WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL PROBABLY LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW SPRINKLES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH 6PM. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE 4 CORNERS REGION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI...WHILE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST. OVERALL POOR MIXING ON THURSDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED. A WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST FLOW COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT BETTER FORCING EXISTS FURTHER NORTH. RETURN BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WHICH SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AT PEAK HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FELT THE NAM WAS TOO FAST WITH IT`S FRONT ARRIVING ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS TOO SOON. WILL KEEP SATURDAY MORNING DRY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014 THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD I80. THERE IS SOME INSUPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014 WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER BUT BASED ON CURRENT OBS WENT AHEAD AND PUT OUT A WIND ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS. SOME WINDS ARE SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUST OVER 40 MPH. ALSO LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW NOTED NOW FROM KOFK TOWARD KSUX AND KTQE. SCT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR TOWARD KOMA AND KLNK. TABILITY...AND GIVEN SEASONAL TRENDS...THERE`S PROBABLY AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT WEAK. MODEL DISCREPANCIES MANIFEST BY SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS GFS IS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH...BUT ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER...WHICH WOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES WELL INTO SUNDAY AND EVEN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY UPSTREAM KICKER...AM INCLINED TO GO WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE ECMWF. BY MONDAY...GFS HINTS AT ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW OVERALL. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN FOR TUE. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE DEPICTED BY BOTH MODELS...THUS COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOMETHING DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM BACK IN TO THE MID/UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014 STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25KTS SUSTAINED WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z...THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO KOMA AND KLNK. MVFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE PREVALENT THROUGH 12Z.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NE...NONE. IA...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ UPDATE...MILLER SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.