Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 051115 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 515 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 .SHORT TERM...(today through Wednesday) Issued at 244 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 Latest water vapor imagery in combination with RAP 500mb analysis shows fast and nearly zonal flow over the region with a potent shortwave trough digging across north central Montana. At the surface, a broad area of low pressure over the northern High Plains continues to move east ahead of the upper shortwave. All eyes are on associated cold front behind this system which will be our biggest weather story of the week. For today, strong southwesterly 850mb flow ahead of the previously mentioned system should allow highs to warm into the upper 40s to lower 50s despite increasing cloud cover. The front will drop through the Dakotas today, reaching our northwestern counties by mid/late afternoon. A few scattered sprinkles/flurries across our northeastern CWA can`t be ruled out as the front dives into the region with gusty northwest winds behind the front. The above mentioned shortwave trough will deepen and close as it moves across the Northern Plains allowing continued cold air advection to ooze south into the Central Plains. A quick moving shortwave currently off the Pacific Northwest coast will drop southeast toward the forecast area late Tuesday into Wednesday. Model guidance continues to vary in regards to whether the strongest associated forcing for ascent occurs primarily over Kansas like the GFS and NAM or near the KS/NE border like the ECMWF. Our model blends continue to go with a middle of the road solution but confidence in any snowfall north of I-80 is fairly low. Storm total snowfall grids give the KS/NE border the highest accumulations of around an inch. The anticipated strong Arctic surge will follow this trough into the end of the week as a 1040mb surface high builds in from the Northern Plains. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 244 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 First Arctic airmass of the season lingers over the area through Thursday with the high pressure ridge overhead by Friday morning, This should be our coldest morning of the season with lows dropping into the single digits for all areas. Strong return flow will set up by early Friday bringing strong warm air advection into the region. The models diverge again with the GFS developing pcpn across the area near a strong warm front while the ECMWF keeps this frontal boundary north of us. Forecast blends put some small pops in our northern counties which seems reasonable at this point. Temperatures over the weekend will be closer to normal with highs in the low 30s and lows in the low 20s. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 513 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016 VFR conditions through the period. There will be some low level wind shear early in the TAF period with winds at 2000 feet around 40 knots from 210-220 degrees. This should diminish by 15-16z. Otherwise, south-southwest winds, that eventually become northwest by 22-02z.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kern LONG TERM...Kern AVIATION...DeWald

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