Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 150815 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 315 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017 Initial forecast concerns for today are cloud cover and winds, then attention turns to frost potential for tonight. The system that brought active weather to the area yesterday continued to move east. 300 mb winds in excess of 100 knots were noted last evening from northwest KS to the western Great Lakes region. Trough axis at 00Z was from Manitoba Canada southward into eastern CO. 12 hour height falls were as high as 70 meters across NE at 500 mb. Clouds have been a little slower to clear than earlier expected and will hold onto clouds a bit longer this morning, especially across western IA, where NAM and RAP 925 mb RH is expected to be highest. Those clouds will clear and northwest winds should decrease as the surface pressure gradient decreases and high pressure builds over KS. It will be a cool day with highs mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. For tonight, a surface ridge axis builds east across the northern and central parts of the Plains. Winds probably will stay up a little, but we should see patchy frost to areas of frost. Will not issue an advisory on this shift, but one may be needed later today where frost/freeze headlines are still active, generally along and south of a line from about Seward to Fremont, Blair and Harlan IA. Expect lows in the 30s. During the day Monday, high pressure moves off to the east and southerly winds increase. That will bring in noticeably warmer air, with highs mainly upper 60s and lower 70s. Highs Tuesday should reach the lower and mid 70s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017 Most of this period remains dry, but there are some signals that we could see showers by Saturday night. Longer range models are in excellent agreement with the mid tropospheric pattern into Friday. Some differences start to show up by Saturday, with the 00Z ECMWF a bit faster in moving a trough from the Rockies out into the Plains. Some showers appear possible from late Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning, with the 00Z GFS more suggestive of that than the ECMWF. For temperatures, a weak cold front is forecast to push down into the area Wednesday but then generally stall and wash out. Highs the rest of the week will be mainly 70s, with lows generally mid 40s to mid 50s.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 MVFR conditions at KLNK/KOMA becoming VFR by 07-10z. Northwest winds 19-28 knots diminishing to less than 12 knots by 12-13z. Could see winds increase again 12 to 20 knots at KOFK 19-23z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Miller LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...DeWald

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