Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 281738 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1238 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015 PCPN CHANCES TODAY AND THEN TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP IN COMBINATION WITH RECENT 500 MB RUC MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB WERE UP TO ABOUT 50 METERS. ATMOSPHERE WAS ALSO QUITE MOIST. 700 MB DEWPOINTS OF 4-8 DEGREES C WERE NOTED FROM THE DESERT SW UP INTO WRN KS AND SWRN NE AT 00Z LAST EVENING...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PW VALUES ARE AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST AREA OF LIFT AND HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...KEPT SOME POPS GOING MUCH OF THE DAY. A WEAKER AREA OF LIFT SHOULD SPREAD SEWD OVER THE REGION AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SOME INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AT 20-30 PERCENT AFTER EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY ENDS. RECENT HRRR RUNS AND EVEN THE 00Z NAM SUGGEST PREVIOUS SCENARIO... WITH AT LEAST ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA IN OUR FAR SERN ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. KEPT SOME MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND BOTH GFS MOS AND NAM MOS SUGGESTING AT LEAST PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. DID NOT MENTION FOG SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE AREA AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR. RETURN FLOW WITH S/SE SFC WINDS SHOULD THEN STRENGTHEN SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015 MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NWRN MEXICO UP INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND A TROUGH FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE NWRN UNITED STATES WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. RIDGE WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SEWD AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST DIGS. WEAK RIPPLES MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE REGION COULD BRING SOME TSRA...WITH BEST CHANCES BEING TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OR ALL OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015 CEILINGS HAD TRENDED TO MVFR AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AS OF 17Z. THOUGH SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS LINGER NORTH OF KOFK IN SOUTH DAKOTA...LIFTING AND THINNING OF CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z. THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND COMBINED WITH RECENT RAIN AND SURFACE MOISTURE EXPECT IFR VISIBILITIES AND CIGS TO SET IN AFTER 10Z AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...MEYER

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