Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 310438 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1138 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO DEAL SOMEWHAT WITH CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT. UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM 12Z SHOWED THE FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JET STREAK OF AROUND 120 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING NORTHEAST FEAR THE NORTHEAST ONTARIO/NORTHWEST QUEBEC BORDER. THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB TROUGH THAT HAD 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 150 METERS. CLOSER TO HOME...A WEAK TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM WISCONSIN BACK INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. A BROAD AND FAIRLY FLAT RIDGE WAS TO OUR WEST. 700 MB TROUGH WAS TO OUR EAST BUT SOME MOISTURE AT THIS LEVEL WAS LINGERING. AT 850 MB...RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED FROM MANITOBA INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SINGLE DIGIT 850 MB TEMPERATURES WERE NOTED FROM CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ZERO DEGREE C ISOTHERM WAS AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. DRIER DEWPOINTS CONTINUED TO MOVE IN WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS. TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LINGERING NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER AREA THIS EVENING. SOME OF THOSE CLOUDS COULD MOVE BACK TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO START TO PUSH TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TONIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S. SUNDAY...LOOK FOR VARIABLE CLOUDS AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. MIXING WILL NOT BE THAT DEEP AND CLOUD COVER MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK SOME TOO...SOME PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD. CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS... BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO BE BETTER TO OUR WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SO FOR NOW...WENT DRY IN THOSE PERIODS. DID KEEP SOME LOW POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT NIGHT IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. FOR TUESDAY...HAVE POPS 20 TO 30 PERCENT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NATION AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THROUGH THURSDAY...THAT TROUGH WILL DIG FROM OREGON SOUTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. RIPPLES WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS FROM THAT WESTERN TROUGH. CHANCES LOOK HIGHEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 AN EXTENSIVE MVFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS IOWA CONTINUES PUSH WEST TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER. DID ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR A BROKEN MVFR DECK BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY TO SEE IF IT GOES LOWER OR OVERCAST. THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...KERN

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