Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 251751 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1251 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Scattered showers with a few isolated thunderstorms will continue to spread over portions of the forecast area this morning ahead of an approaching upper-level shortwave trough over central Wyoming. A surface cold front has pushed through a majority of the forecast area this morning and is expected to extend just to our southeast across northeast Kansas and southwest Iowa through a good portion of the day as surface low pressure along the Kansas/Oklahoma border works its way slowly northeast along the front. Additional widespread showers are expected through the day ahead of the upper wave as it pushes east across South Dakota. In addition, strong cold air advection will continue today with highs in our northern counties only rising a few degrees with highs forecast in the mid to upper 40s. Precipitation should end from northwest to southeast Wednesday as the upper-level trough axis finally shifts east of the area. A few snowflakes could mix in with the rain along the South Dakota border early Wednesday morning but no accumulation is anticipated. Have continued mention of patchy frost in our northern counties Thursday morning with lows in the low 30s. Will continue to monitor for any headlines that may be needed. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Dry conditions are expected Thursday before a series of upper troughs swing through the region through the weekend. Significant differences continue with the medium range models with the 00z GFS giving the area significant precipitation Friday while the 00z ECMWF remains fairly light with its QPF by keeping the strongest forcing to our south. Heading into the weekend, the pattern will remain cool as a deepening mid/upper level trough digs across the Four Corners region and quickly moves into eastern Nebraska by Sunday. Continued precipitation is expected with this system with cold air working south. Some mix with light snow is possible before the system exits to the east on Monday. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017 IFR to low MVFR cigs will overspread all eastern Nebraska TAF sites between 18Z and 00Z, and continue through most of the TAF period. Cigs should generally average FL008 to FL015 with north winds 15 to 20kt. Scattered showers in northeast Nebraska will initially dissipate early in the TAF period, then redevelop by 00Z and continue through about 06Z. Southeast development toward KOMA and KLNK is in question, and would expect only isolated showers at these sites.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kern LONG TERM...Kern AVIATION...Dergan

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