Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 251143 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 643 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Early morning water vapor imagery indicated that deep slow moving mid-level cyclone was located over northeast OK. Short term models are in good agreement this morning in taking this low across MO over the next 24 hours. Latest regional radar mosaic indicates that rainfall early this morning has become spotty in nature, but we are expecting intensity and coverage to increase again this morning as next lobe of DPVA works northeast into the southeast CWA. Steady rainfall should continue through the morning over southeast NEb/western Iowa with decreasing coverage expected this afternoon, becoming sprinkles this evening and mainly dry after midnight. We expect little change in temperatures today with the clouds and rainfall in the area with highs in the mid 40s most locations. The 07Z objective surface analysis indicates that the ridge axis extends from western MN into western NEb. This is expected to slowly develop east tonight with the low-level flow becoming east and then eventually southeast into Sunday as the mid-level shortwave ridge, currently over the high Plains this morning, crosses the area. This is expected to keep the widespread low clouds across the area through the day on Sunday, which again will limit highs. If some clearing does make it into the northwest CWA tonight we may see some fog develop, but we will anticipate the widespread low clouds to continue and limit the flog threat. Upstream from the previously mentioned shortwave ridge is another trough moving into central and southern CA this morning. Latest guidance indicates that this system will generally go south of our area across KS/MO on Sunday night into Monday, but we will maintain some low chance pops along the KS/MO border for some showers associated with this system. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 We may finally see some sunshine on Tuesday in the wake of the Monday system, but this is expected to be short-lived as the next large-scale trough shifts into the Plains. Models continue to struggle with the evolution of this system. The models appear to be struggling with how to handle additional energy moving into the western US by the end of the week. The EC/GEM would indicate that the mid week system would bring another good chance of rainfall to the region while the GFS is indicating a more southern/slower track to the system with the upstream energy entering the western US not diving into the southwest like the EC/GEM indicate. Analysis of various ensemble progs adds little forecaster confidence to any particular solution. Thus we will maintain the chance of rainfall from mainly Wed into Thu and wait for better consistency before increasing/decreasing the chances for rainfall during this time frame. If the EC/GEM prove correct our highs for the time period are to warm, and if the GFS verifies we are to cool. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys in rain and fog are expected to prevail through most of the period as weather system over southwest Missouri tracks toward central Illinois. Gusty north winds also expected through at least 18Z before diminishing in the afternoon.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boustead LONG TERM...Boustead AVIATION...Fobert

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