Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 251742 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1242 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 COLD FRONT JUST STARTING TO ENTER NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AT 07Z. RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH A SECOND AREA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SCATTERED SPRINKLES REPORTED SO FAR WITH THE WESTERN BAND OF PRECIP. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT POPS THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING IN THE SOUTH THEN CHANCE POPS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND UVV INCREASES AHEAD OF WAVE MOVING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE COME TOGETHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCH EXPECTED. WAITING ON 08Z METARS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO CHECK ON VSBYS IN FOG. GENERALLY 1/2 MILE OR LESS CURRENTLY. MAY NEED ADVISORY THERE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING BASED ON LATEST HRRR. UPPER WAVE INTENSIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH UPPER PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF SLIGHT POPS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES MAIN UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE ALTHOUGH RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 UPPER PATTERN QUICKLY FLATTENS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW DRIVING UPPER WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST IS DRY NOW BUT 00Z EURO SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL PRECIP AS COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. KLNK IS ON THE NORTH END OF THE PRECIP AREA...AND THIS PRECIPITATION SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA...THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAF. VFR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AS THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOR NOW THERE IS SOME WIND ALOFT THAT MAY KEEP IT MIXED ENOUGH AND CAN RE-ASSESS. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

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