Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 191749 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1249 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014 INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MODESTLY STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING EWD NEAR CANADIAN/U.S. ND BORDER AT 08Z. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO NWRN ZONES THIS AFTN...SRN OPEN TROUGH NEAR CA/AZ BORDER AND ANY MOISTURE/ENERGY EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF IT APPEARS TO BE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT IN NRN ZONES THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF WEAKENING/SLOWING FRONT NRN ZONES THIS AFTN...APPEARS BETTER CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BE WSW ZONES THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING AHEAD OF SRN TROUGH INTERACTS WITH AFTN HEATING ALLOWING LATE AFTN DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR SW OF AREA. THAT AREA HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY BY NAM/GFS WHICH HAS ALSO INFLUENCED THE SREF MEMBERS...FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW. MOISTURE AND SHEAR...HOWEVER...ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR OUR FA...BUT IF WE CAN MANAGE TO HEAT TOWARD OR ABOVE FORECAST MAX TEMPS NEAR 80...MODEST CAPES WILL DEVELOP WITH STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HRS. MADE LTL/NO CHANGES TO MAX TEMPS TODAY...GUID/PREV FORECAST LOOK GOOD. IF THE EXPECTED SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPS NEAR/SW OF FA THIS EVENING...WOULD EXPECT IT TO SPREAD/DEVELOP INTO ERN/NERN ZONES TOWARD MORNING IN SWRLY UPPER FLOW AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO SWRLY. THUS EXPANDED LIKELY POPS FROM WRN ZONES THIS EVENING ENE THROUGH 06-07Z. RELATIVELY HIGH POPS SEEM IN ORDER THEN FOR SUNDAY AS SRN TROUGH MOVES INTO WRN KS/WRN OK REGION. FORECAST A DIURNAL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN LULL IN HIGHER POPS BEFORE ANY HEATING INTERACTS WITH MID LVL MOISTURE/TROUGH TO BRING AN INCREASE IN EXPECTED COVERAGE BY AFTN/EVENING. AIRMASS WILL BE MILD SO ANY BREAKS IN OVC/PRECIP SHOULD ALLOW HEATING INTO 70S...ESPECIALLY SERN ZONES. STILL COULD BE A SMALL AREA WHERE READINGS FAIL TO GET OUT OF LOW 60S BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO CHANGE HIGHS ANY NRN ZONES. FORECAST DEEP SHEAR EVEN WEAKER FOR AREA ON SUNDAY WITH INSTABILITY LESS...SO STRENGTH OF STORMS DO NOT CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE AN ISSUE. ALTHOUGH SRN TROUGH AND ASSOCD MOISTURE/LIFT WILL INFLUENCE MAINLY SERN 2/3RDS OF AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH IN NRN STEAM MOVING ALONG CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A REINFORCING PUSH TO CDFNT INTO NRN ZONES LATE. THIS COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM THREAT BEHIND MAIN PRECIP AREA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING INTO SERN ZONES BY MONDAY MORNING. WOULD EXPECT ALL ZONES TO DRY OUT MONDAY AFTN AND THAT PERIOD WAS CONTINUED DRY...WITH HIGHS A DEG OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 70. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014 AFTER A QUIET PERIOD TUESDAY ACTIVE WEATHER STILL ON TAP FOR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS NRN ROCKIES. WARM ADVECTION PRECIP LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER FA TUE NGT INTO WED PERIOD AS A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH. IF PRECIP IS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH WED...WHICH HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY ECMWF FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH MEX NUMBERS WHICH WERE A CATEGORY OR SO WARMER THAN ECMWF. FOR NOW LEFT PREV FORECAST/MODEL BLEND IN PLACE WHICH WERE GENERALLY NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW MEX. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WED COULD ALSO ALTER COVERAGE OF SEVERITY OF STORMS OVER FA BUT UPPER SYSTEM STRENGTH ALONE WILL PROBABLY ALLOW AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA BECOMING UNDER SLIGHT RISK AREA IN WED- MIDDAY THU PERIOD. HOW EFFICIENT/QUICKLY UPPER LOW CLEARS OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THURSDAY WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE POPS/PSBL TSTM STRENGTH THAT DAY...AND WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF IT LINGERING FOR A WHILE THU...WILL PROBABLY KEEP SOME MENTION IN HWO. COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THEN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FA. && .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO STALL. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR 02-10Z AND AGAIN AT KOFK FROM 12-18Z SUN. MORE SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KLNK AND KOMA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHERMOK LONG TERM...CHERMOK AVIATION...KERN

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