Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 310751 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 251 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN THIS MORNING. LOWER CIGS AND VSBY MORE LIMITED AT 07Z THAN WAS THE CASE THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR EARLY PART OF THE MORNING OTHERWISE EXPECT EARLIER DISSIPATION BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF APPROCHING COLD FRONT. NOT A LOT OF PUSH WITH THIS FRONT WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WASH IT OUT ON TUESDAY. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. SOME LINGERING SMALL CHANCE INTO EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE. SIMILAR SETUP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT MAINLY FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LOOK LESS LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FINALLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. IMPACT OF ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT TREND IS TOWARD SOME LOWER 90S IN SOME SPOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW DURING THE PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE REGION AWAITING THE KICK FROM THE UPPER TROUGH BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EXTENDED LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015 VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG 08-14Z AT THE THREE SITES...AND ESPECIALLY AT KOMA WHERE TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS BY 14-16Z...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING BY 01/00Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...DEWALD

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