Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 201748 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1148 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014 SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY. FARTHER OUT...POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING WAS SATURATED FROM 1.4KFT TO 2.8KFT WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A 100KT+ H3 WAS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WITH A SECOND JET STRETCHING FROM BAJA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. COMPLEX H5 PATTERN WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW. AT 00Z...THERE WAS A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER LONGER WAVE TROF HEADING FOR THE PLAINS TODAY AND SUNDAY. OF NOTE ON THE H85 CHART WAS THAT THE COLD AIR WAS WELL TO THE NORTH FROM MANITOBA AND ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH MILD AI THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR FOR SOME TIME THIS AFTERNOON. DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL MOVE IN AGAIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DROPPING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR.R ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. HIGHER H85 DEWPOINTS WERE APPROACHING CENTRAL CANADA WITH ANOTHER AREA SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. WITH A MOIST SOUTH FLOW...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS NEAR ONL AND HASTING WITH SOME CLEARING WORKING NORTH THROUGH MARYSVILLE. DENSE FOG WAS NOTED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS. THIS CLEARING IS LIKELY DUE TO SOME RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS IN THAT LOCATION AND A 25KT LOW LEVEL JET. VISIBILITIES WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DENSE FOG AROUND ONL TO AURORA AND PATCHY REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES...YET OTHER LOCATIONS ABOVE SIX MILES. THERE WAS SOME MIST OR FREEZING MIST WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING AROUND 28 TO 30 IN WESTERN IOWA AND AROUND 30 TO 32 IN EASTERN NEBRASKA. COLDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE FOUND FARTHER WEST WHERE IS HAD CLEARED OUT. THE CLEARING TO THE SOUTH WITH THE INCREASED MIXING SHOULD FILL BACK IN AS THE WINDS RELAX. THE SHORTWAVE AT 12Z SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER CENTRAL IOWA WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BETTER LIFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO WILL ONLY MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA. A FEW OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS DECREASE THE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD LINCOLN AND COLUMBUS AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE...SO WILL MAINTAIN TREND OF WARMER TEMPERATURES THERE. MOST HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE TODAY. THERE IS SOME LIFT WITH THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION IS WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. TONIGHT WITH THE LIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION DO INCLUDE FOG/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE NEXT TROF DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY APPEARS STRONGER AND HAS MORE COLD AIR TO WORK WITH. LOOKS LIKE INCREASING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014 A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE LINGER MONDAY...THUS LINGER THE CHANCES FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR LIGHT SNOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY. IT TAKES A WHILE FOR THE TROF TO MOVE EAST...HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME STRENGTH DIFFERENCES...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THIS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WIND. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S. AND 30S.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014 ONCE AGAIN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL BE UNDER DREARY GRAY BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE. LIFR AND IFR CLOUD DECK EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF KONL TO JUST WEST OF KHSI AND KHJH. WEST OF THAT LINE SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS YOU APPROACH THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW...DO NOT EXPECT ANY BIG IMPROVEMENTS AT ANY OF THE THREE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DID PUT IN BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 22Z BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THAT FORECAST AND BY03Z OR 04 Z WOULD EXPECT IVF AND LIFR TO SETTLE IN AGAIN. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION -FZDZ AT THE THREE TAF SITES TONIGHT AS IT WILL BE VERY PATCHY IN NATURE IF THERE IS ANY AT ALL.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...MEYER

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