Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 220850 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 350 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SHORT TERM...(today through Monday) Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016 Mainly clear and mild conditions are forecast through the weekend, with an increase in clouds the only real change for Monday. Upper ridge was noted from west Texas through the Canadian Rockies this morning, with one potent shortwave noted riding across Idaho and Montana. This wave will move across the US/Canada border today, then drive a cold front south in its wake later tonight. Ahead of the front, we will see sunny skies and southerly winds today, pushing highs into the 70s all areas. Cold front is forecast to move into northeast Nebraska this evening then push through southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa Sunday morning. Cooler airmass will spill into our area as surface high pressure settles southeast into the Upper Mississippi River Valley region on Monday. North winds and cooling low levels will be offset somewhat by abundant sunshine to keep highs at or above normal readings Sunday afternoon. By Monday, low level flow will already be turning around to the south or southeast as upper ridge builds over the Plains downstream of deepening trough in the western states. However increasing mid and high clouds and slow return of warmer air from the south will keep temperatures in the 60s. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016 A potent shortwave moving across the Plains will bring a fairly decent chance for precipitation Tuesday, with a return to our recent tranquil weather pattern following for the end of the week. Models have trended slightly slower with strong shortwave ejecting into the Plains, now bringing highest precip chances into eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa Tuesday night. However our first shot of precipitation will come late Monday night as warm advection intensifies in northeast Nebraska just west of retreating ridge axis. Moisture return will not be robust at this time, so will maintain fairly low chances. Main surface low tied to shortwave will be swinging through eastern Nebraska Tuesday night. Robust moisture return should be well underway Tuesday afternoon as Gulf is wide open and GFS paints a wide swath of 1-1.5 inch precipitable water from Texas into our area, approaching record levels for late October. MLCAPE values increase markedly Tuesday afternoon as well, with near 1000 j/kg noted over a good part of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Thus thunderstorms with heavy rain will become increasingly likely later Tuesday and especially Tuesday night as surface low swings through. With slightly slower timing, will maintain rain chances into at least Wednesday morning before mid level ridging behind shortwave begins to dry things out for the rest of the week. Temperatures through the week will average near or slightly above normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. No appreciable cloud cover is expected, except for high level cirrus streaming over top of H5 ridge axis. Surface pressure gradient increases during the afternoon Saturday due to lee side troughing; however, wind speeds not expected to exceed 12kts. There is some indications of LLWS developing after 23/03 UTC as LLJ strengthens above decoupled boundary layer, but will wait a couple TAF cycles to add. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dergan LONG TERM...Dergan AVIATION...Fortin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.