Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 140808 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 308 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014 SATL IMAGERY THIS MORNING WAS SHOWING A ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE TROF SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WITH POTENT VORT MAX JUST EAST OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION. UPSTREAM THEN...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER THE WRN CONUS/WRN CANADA. AT THE SFC...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NRN IL WITH LEADING EDGE OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHING DEEP INTO THE SRN PLAINS STATES. OTHERWISE AREA OF -SN HAS FINALLY PUSHED OUT OF ERN NEB AND INTO SWRN IA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF THOUGH BY MID MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MEAN TROF WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THRU THE NEAR TERM PDS WITH NEXT SHOT FOR PCPN COMING WED/WED NIGHT WHEN NEXT PAC NW SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. UNTIL THEN...TEMPS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH. DEEP TROF ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN AN IMPRESSIVE TEMP SWING OVER THE REGIONS OVER THE LAST 24HRS...AND AT THIS POINT COLD AIRMASS EXPECTED TO HANG IN TIGHT AT LEAST THRU TONIGHT. COLD THEN TODAY WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW 40S. FURTHERMORE... GUSTY NW WINDS/COLD WIND CHILL INDICES WILL ENSURE LOUSY CONDITIONS THRU THE DAY. AS FOR HIGHS TUES/WED...MODERATE REBOUND ADVERTISED BUT STILL JUST BELOW NORM. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014 WED AFTN/NIGHT NEXT ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING DEEP LYR QG FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE AT TIME OF FROPA. PCPN TYPE INITIALLY RA...THEN POSSIBLE RA/SN MIX WED NIGHT/THUR MORNING WHEN BRUNT OF CAA ARRIVES. FOCUS FOR PCPN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THRU FRIDAY AS BEST DYNAMIC FORCING EXITS THE REGION. SAT NIGHT/SUN...ECM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF OVER SRN NEB/ERN KS IN RELATION TO 295K UPGLIDE/LOW COND PRES DEF. GOING FCST ALREADY HAS THIS COVERED WITH SMALL POPS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND ON TAP THRU THE EXTENDED PD WITH LOW 70S ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014 AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP CIGS TO NEAR FL010 AND VSBYS BETWEEN 1SM AND 2SM IN THE KLNK AND KOMA THROUGH THE 04Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. THAT PRECIPITATION AND CIGS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA NEAR AND AFTER 06Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER 08Z. STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 35KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 02Z THEN DECREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE. EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...DERGAN

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