Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 220441 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1141 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017 A large upper level low continues to move north/northeast across the MN/Canadian border this afternoon with a weak shortwave moving east across northern Utah and another upstream shortwave diving south out of southern Saskatchewan per latest water vapor imagery. Clouds have diminished across most of the CWA but a few remain closer to the low across northeast Nebraska and much of western Iowa. The northern Utah impulse will drive east through the High Plains while the Canadian impulse dives south across the Northern High Plains Monday. The western impulse may produce scattered showers across southeast Nebraska late tonight into Monday morning. A break is expected for a bit before the northern High Plains impulse begins to bring scattered thunderstorms into the area Monday with steepening mid-level lapse rates. Surface dewpoints are forecast in the mid 50s south of an afternoon cold front, generally south of I- 80 where instability will be greatest. SPC continues a marginal risk for Day 2. Thunderstorms should exit southeast through Monday evening. Behind this, the region will remain in strong northwesterly flow both aloft and at the surface as the upper low continues to move slowly south/southeast. This will provide continued cold air advection over the region with some scattered showers possible through the day Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017 Dry conditions look likely late Tuesday night through early Thursday as weak upper level ridging begins to build in overhead. A weak mid- level impulse will drift through the area Thursday afternoon which could produce some scattered showers. Otherwise, off and on chances of precipitation remains through the weekend as continued mid-level impulses take aim at the region around a large upper low that will be slowly sliding east across southern Canada. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017 VFR conditions are indicated through the TAF cycle. Showers or thunderstorms may affect all sites Monday afternoon, but confidence is too low in coverage to indicate thunder this early. Have included VCSH mention for now as an early indicator of potential. Should a shower/thunderstorm move over a site, brief reduction to MVFR visibility/ceiling is possible. Winds will be light for much of today, with directions shifting tonight into Monday before becoming consistently westerly to northwesterly in the late afternoon through evening.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kern LONG TERM...Kern AVIATION...Mayes

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