Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 021137 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 537 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SHORT TERM...(today through Sunday) Issued at 209 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016 ...First of Three Weather Systems Will Impact the Area Saturday afternoon/night... Seasonable conditions prevail today with weak ridging across the Plains as the area will be ahead of the next trough which continues to take shape over the southwestern US. Highs today will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s, just slightly below normal, but with dry conditions. Moisture will significantly increase through the day Saturday, with rain chances increases by Saturday afternoon along and south of I80. This should develop into a wintry mix by early Saturday evening, although temps aloft are not especially cold, with even some warm air advection noted in the models through the night. Thus will have a rain/snow/freezing rain/drizzle mix for parts of the area, especially on the tail end of the system 6-12z Sunday as deep layer saturation shifts off to the east. QPF remains quite light for this first event, generally 0.07" or less for southeast NE and southwest Iowa. Precipitation will probably not even make it to northeast NE at all. Temps Sunday rebound nicely and warm back to the mid to upper 40s, well above normal as zonal flow aloft again prevails across the Plains. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 209 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016 ...Two More Weather Systems Impact the Area, Then Turning Sharply Colder... The extended period will quite active with two weather systems moving through, along with the first real arctic intrusion of air resulting in significantly colder temperatures. There should be one more mild and above normal day on Monday with temperatures in the 40s. It`s your last real chance for easy outdoor holiday decorating before the bottom falls out by mid week. The cold front arrives Monday night. This will bring a chance of rain changing to snow the area across the area, which could linger into Tuesday, although the the ECMWF is definitely a little more progressive, with the GFS/Canadian a little slower. While it`s beyond our period for forecasting specific snowfall amounts, this second system doesn`t look that significant right now. The sharply colder temperatures arrive Tuesday night, as the third weather system to affect the area will begin to move out of the Rockies. This will probably spread snow chances back into the area by daybreak Wednesday, with snow chances continuing through Wednesday evening, but ending by daybreak Thursday. Again, models are a little off, with GFS now ending precip a little quicker than the ECMWF. Temperatures Wednesday will only be in the teens and 20s. Combined with the northwest winds at 15 to 30 mph, it will feel like single digits above and below zero. Welcome to winter! Again, this is well beyond our snowfall forecasting ability, but models suggest a few inches could be possible, with higher amounts to our south. Of course, this could change as the models still seem to be shifting a bit here or there with each run. Wednesday night and Thursday remain quite cold. We trended forecast temperatures down a bit from model blends, but it may not be cold enough given a fresh snow pack. Lows in the single digits Wednesday night and highs mostly in the teens on Thursday. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 531 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016 No aviation concerns this TAF cycle as surface high pressure builds overhead. Surface winds will remain light, primarily out of the northwest with a few mid/high clouds drifting overhead.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DeWald LONG TERM...DeWald AVIATION...Kern

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