Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KOAX 012114 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 314 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 313 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015 POTENTIAL MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH STRONG STORM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY REMAINS THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST. RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DECENT MIXING WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE PUSHED TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 30S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS BEFORE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE COULD TRIGGER A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS REALIZED IN SHORTWAVE RIDGING REGIME. INCREASING CLOUDS MAY LIMIT WARMING...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP HIGHS AGAIN REACH THE 30S ACROSS THE CWA. THEN WE TURN TO TUESDAY SYSTEM. TREND OF MODELS OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO HAS BEEN TO AMPLIFY AFFECT OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS WHILE DAMPENING AFFECT OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA COAST. NET RESULT APPEARS TO BE A MORE NORTHERN TRACK TO SURFACE LOW THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY...SHIFTING RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW LINE NORTHWARD AS WELL. ALSO...A MORE SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. AND SPEED OF SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON DRY. STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE MONDAY NIGHT IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH SURFACE LOW EJECTING INTO NORTHERN KANSAS OR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL COMING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW ENTERS THE PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER UNDER INCREASING LIFT...SUGGESTING A LIKELY DRIZZLE SCENARIO IN MUCH OF OUR AREA MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE BELOW FREEZING...BUT ROBUST MOISTURE INFUSION WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 BY MIDNIGHT... CORRESPONDING TO LIKELY ORIENTATION OF WARM FRONT. CONTINUED THETA-E ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO EXPANSION IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF WARM FRONT. SOUNDINGS HERE SHOW A SWATH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. FARTHER NORTH SUFFICIENT DEPTH OF COLD LAYER POINTS TO ALL SNOW. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO WESTERN IOWA EARLY TUESDAY...THEN INTO EASTERN IOWA BY 18Z. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE WILL SWITCH ALL PRECIP TYPES TO SNOW RATHER QUICKLY...BUT WILL ALSO DRAG PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST QUICKLY AS WELL. SO UPSHOT OF THE ABOVE POINTS TO A PERIOD OF POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BEFORE RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE. A COUPLE OF COUNTIES NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE WILL SEE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP...AND COULD SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW IN THE MORNING. FARTHER NORTH...SAY ALONG AND NORTH OF NELIGH TO WAYNE LINE...MAINLY SNOW IS FORECAST WITH DURATION OF SNOW LEADING TO AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. SOME ACCUMULATION OF SNOW SOUTH OF THIS LINE IS LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL BE LIMITED AS PRECIP ENDS SHORTLY AFTER THE CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IS REALIZED. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BY LATE IN THE DAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD SQUEEZE OUT LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGHS IN TEENS AND 20S ARE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 313 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015 THE LONGER TERM PERIOD STILL LOOKS DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL ROTATE TO AND OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST IN THE PLAINS. AFTER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA THURSDAY MORNING...MILD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S THURSDAY SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 40S FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST SFC WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP EARLY MONDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...KERN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.