Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 271955 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MOST RECENT RADAR RETURNS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANAS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO EASTERN NEBRASKA MUCH BEFORE 06Z AS THE CURRENT AIRMASS IS QUITE STABLE. DECIDED TO GO FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC WITH THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER AS THE FIRST OF TWO WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TRACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE REALLY ISN`T A DRY PERIOD IN THE FORECAST UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...BUT DID LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RAMPING THEM UP AGAIN WHEN THE SECOND SHORTWAVE FINALLY TRACKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING. AS MENTIONED WE EXPECT A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER TO BEGIN SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESURE TAKES HOLD AND 500MB HEIGHTS RISE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A BIT OF DIP...THOUGH REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING...ALLOWING SATURDAY MORNING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH AND EAST. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 THIS FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA STILL IN PLACE. THIS LULL IN PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY MID- WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FURTHER EAST AND WESTERN CONUS TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASS THROUGH BRINGING RAIN BACK IN THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY THEREAFTER.
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&& .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF IT MAKING IT TO THE TAF SITES...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING ON THU. CLOUD BASES WILL CONT TO LOWER ON THU MORNING BUT SHOULD STAY AOA FL040 THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PEARSON LONG TERM...PEARSON AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

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