Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 190903 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 403 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Forecast concerns in the short term will be sprinkles and clouds this morning...winds and temperatures this afternoon...potential for thunderstorms Tuesday-Wednesday night and severe weather threat Wednesday and Wednesday night. At 00Z...there was a strong 80-120kt jet aloft with an elongated area of h5 vorticity in the northwest flow aloft and h7 moisture resulting in a showers and sprinkles. The 00Z sounding was dry adiabatic with a sfc-3km lapse rate of 10 deg C/km. The latest WSR-88d radar mosaic showed the enhanced radar echoes west of Hebron. This was where the better h7/h85 moisture resided. The shortwave in the flow over the Northern/Central Plains pushes through this morning and included some sprinkles. Otherwise, once again, temperature are forecast to mix out this afternoon with the northwest flow aloft. Surface winds are not quite as strong as yesterday, however still increasing from the northwest 10-20mph with some higher gusts. Highs Sunday were in the 70s and 80s and should be a touch warmer...but still in the 80s. A shortwave is forecast to rotate in the flow through the Great Lakes Tuesday...meanwhile...there is a ridge and hot air over the Southwest U.S. We are in between and depending on how far north the pooling of h85 moisture occurs with the increasing southerly h85 flow over KS/h7 moisture/waa over southern Nebraska...could see some thunderstorms develop with heating. Some models raise the pwat to 1.5 inches Tuesday afternoon. Convective temperatures are forecast to be reached. Added thunderstorm mention Tuesday afternoon near the KS border. Highs Tuesday should be in the 80s to lower 90s. Tuesday night...the warm front continues to lift north and should see additional storms. Wednesday the hot air builds in ahead of a cold front. Moisture pools along the front (with 1.5 to 2 pwat) with an upper level shortwave in the flow aloft Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon as instability increased to 4000+J/kg. The storms should become more widespread with the h85 low level jet at 30 to 35kts in the afternoon increasing to 50-60kt Wednesday night. Severe weather appears a good bet with all modes of severe weather possible. Locally heavy rain will also be expected with the thunderstorms. Details in the frontal and surface low track will need to be worked out as they vary from northern Iowa to southern MN as being a little more enhanced related to the surface low track. Highs Wednesday should be in the 90s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 The shortwave pushes through, however the front hangs up over the forecast area Thursday. This will allow thunderstorm chances to linger Thursday and Thursday night for parts of the area. Cooler weather with a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday. Highs in the 70s and 80s with mostly 70s for the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017 VFR conditions through the period. There will be some mid clouds around 10000` early in the TAF period, and there may be a few sprinkles moving through the area, but not significant enough to mention. Northwest winds less than 7 knots initially, but winds do increase to 12 to 22 knots by 16-17z, diminishing by 23-24z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Zapotocny LONG TERM...Zapotocny AVIATION...DeWald

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