Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 151810 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1210 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018 The first front is to the south of the forecast area and the reinforcing cold air will build in this afternoon and tonight. Tricky temperature forecast with readings in the lower 50s in the south near the KS/MO borders and lower 30s in the north. 4mb pressure rises behind the surface low pressure over northern Missouri and north winds picking up. Temperatures are rising or steady in a lot of spots, however later this afternoon, should drop off. We have a lot of upper level support and some mid level frontogenesis, however there is a bit of drier air to overcome. It will try hard to flurry and snow, however the hi-res models keep the light snow in northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa. The timing was a little slower and held on to the light snow a little longer, so made some adjustments for that and will need to see how the rest of the afternoon goes with the snow developing. Look for increasing clouds and north winds late this afternoon and tonight with the reinforcing cold air.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 322 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018 A short-wave trough from the northern Inter-mountain region into Great Basin early this morning will advance east into the northern and central Plains later today into tonight, where it will phase with a higher-latitude system progressing along the U.S.-Canadian border. In the low levels, 08z mesoanalysis placed a weak surface low near Concordia, KS with an associated warm front stretching east-northeast through southwest Iowa. Light winds and higher moisture content along and to the immediate north of that boundary have contributed to patchy fog early this morning over far eastern NE and southwest IA. The surface low is forecast to track east into northwest MO by mid morning with winds across the area switching to northwest with it`s passage to the southeast. The patchy fog will likely linger awhile after sunrise before dissipating. Meanwhile, a strong cold front stretching from northwest MN to central MT as of 08z will advance south today, reaching northeast NE this afternoon. While a large plume of mountain-wave-induced cirrus will limit daytime heating ahead of the front, temperatures should warm into the 40s south of I-80 with mid to upper 30s to the north. The best chance for measurable precipitation will reside along the SD border this afternoon where low-level frontal uplift will be augmented by deeper-layer forcing for ascent associated with the aforementioned short-wave trough. Winds will strengthen markedly from the northwest with the passage of the front tonight, ushering a continental-polar air mass into the region. Lows tonight will dip into the single digits above zero across the northern half of the area with generally 10 to 15 above in the south. Highs on Friday will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Friday night into Saturday, a fast-moving short-wave trough will track through the mid-MO Valley in tandem with a weak surface front. Highs on Saturday will warm into the upper 30s north with upper 40s south with gusty northwest winds developing during the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 322 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018 Developing low pressure to our north on Sunday will yield warm and breezy conditions with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s. On Sunday night into Monday, a cold front will advance southeast through the area, ahead of an amplifying mid-level trough over the Interior West. Increasing low-level heat and moisture fluxes ahead of the front will aid in the development of showery precipitation late Sunday night into Monday morning. Warm-sector precipitation type will be rain showers with some freezing rain possible in a transition zone and light snow in the north. Precipitation should gradually transition to all snow as the cold air deepens within the post-frontal environment. Highs on Monday will be dictated by how quickly the front moves south with the current forecast indicating readings ranging from 20-25 north to around 50 in far southeast NE and southwest IA. The western U.S. trough mentioned above will begin to shift east into the Plains Monday night into Tuesday when we will indicate some potential for light snow. Temperatures will likely remain below normal through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018 MVFR conditions moving in 20-24Z with increasing clouds. Could be some IFR conditions, but unsure if the coverage will maintain itself enough to include as a prevailing group. Some of the -sn may hold together to affect KOFK this evening. Should see some improvement to VFR possibly by 06Z. North winds 10 to 20kts increasing to 15 to 30kts. The winds are forecast to drop to 10-15kts mainly after 10-14Z.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...Zapotocny SHORT TERM...Mead LONG TERM...Mead AVIATION...Zapotocny is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.