Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 131147 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 647 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017 The primary forecast concerns are in regards to the chance for showers and thunderstorms through Saturday, and potential for any severe storms. Main features noted from the upper air charts last evening included the following. At 300 mb, jet streaks were noted diving south from western Canada toward the Pacific northwest and from Wyoming into the Dakotas. Second jetstreak had a max of around 120 knots and we should see some effects of that (divergence from right entrance region) as it tracks northeast. Models also suggest some lower and mid tropospheric frontogenesis for mainly central and southern parts of the forecast area until around 18z. Main area of height falls at 500 mb was over the northern Plains and into southern Canada, which will continue to lift northeast. Modest 850 mb moisture was noted from the Gulf coast up into parts of KS and even up into MN, ahead of the 850 mb cold front. At the surface, a decent cold front continue to push through eastern NE and southwest IA. That feature should push out of the area by late morning. North of the boundary there is some potential for mainly light rain, based on forecast soundings. The deeper 850-500 mb moisture and lift shift more toward northern IA this afternoon. Instability will be in place very early this morning ahead of the front, but that looks weak or non- existent by mid to late morning and early afternoon. Some instability is possible down along the KS and MO borders later this afternoon. Cut back high temperatures today just a bit, with most highs from around 60 to the mid 60s. Areas near KFNB may reach near 70. There does appear to be a narrow window of opportunity for a few strong storms in far southeast NE and maybe the far southern part of southwest IA late this afternoon into the early evening. Will keep some chance of thunderstorms there at those times. Later in the night, will keep some slight to chance POPs going and then chances ramp up quickly (with thunder possible) across southeast NE and southwest IA from about 4 am to 8 am local time. Some strong storms appear possible with fairly strong lifted noted around 700 mb on the nose of a 40 knot low level jet. Left likely to categorical POPs much of southeast NE and southwest IA for Saturday, decreasing from northwest to southeast during the afternoon and evening. Later Saturday night into Sunday should be dry. It does look windy Saturday night behind the front, but probably not strong enough for an advisory. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017 This period looks mainly dry, with rain chances possibly returning by late Friday. Highs will be mainly upper 60s to mid 70s (with some potentially warmer days when the mid level flow turns to southwest later in the week). Lows should drop into the 30s Sunday night, with mainly 40s to lower 50s the rest of the week. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 642 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017 Cloud cover trends and model guidance continues pointing to MVFR cigs at LNK within the next few hours, and probably at OAX as well. Believe ceiling heights will increase or scatter by the afternoon, but will build down to IFR at LNK and OAX through the early morning hours. OFK will be VFR for the majority of the TAF but will probably have lower MVFR or IFR cigs build into the area by very late in the TAF. Otherwise, a few showers are possible around LNK/OAX today but should be mostly dry.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Miller LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...Barjenbruch

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