Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 111821 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 121 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014 WITH THE MORNING UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS/TEMPS/CLOUDS PER TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...BUT ADJUSTED THEM DOWNWARD WHERE CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGER AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENTS IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014 WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE...75-85KT UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS NOTED NEAR THE MT-ND/CANADA BORDER. 850MB LOW WAS ROUGHLY OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH WAS NEAR THE OH/MS RIVER CONFLUENCE...WITH SOUTHERLY 850MB WINDS DRAWING WARM/MOIST AIR OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CONVECTIVE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AGAIN ON SATURDAY. MORNING SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING...MAINLY SKIRTING ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY...SHOULD SEE DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...REINFORCING A WARM FRONT/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA. SOUTHERN CWA SHOULD MIX OUT BOUNDARY LAYER AND REMAIN WELL CAPPED...WHILE REMAINDER OF C WA IS NOT LIKELY TO SEE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAP REMAINS. EXPECT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG THE 850MB FRONT IN NORTHEAST NEB...WITH VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET DRIVING CONVECTION NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST MORE OF A MULTICELL THAN SUPERCELL TYPE OF CONVECTION...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS LOW-END SEVERE HAIL. COULD SEE SOME TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD LOCALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION ON SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD EXIT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...BULK SHEAR IS NOT PROGGED TO BE VERY STRONG...BUT WITH COOLING MID/UPPER LEVELS...HAIL WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRY WEATHER SHOULD OVERTAKE THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY...SPARKING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER IN NORTHWEST IA/NORTHEAST NE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED AN ISOLATED MENTION UP THERE FOR NOW...BUT DID REMOVE POPS FROM THE REST OF THE AREA GIVEN WEAK HIT-OR-MISS PRECIP POTENTIAL AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014 MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK IS THE DEEP AND COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW PROGGED TO DESCEND OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY TO MID-WEEK. CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD DESCEND THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND GIVEN THE FALLING 500MB HEIGHTS AND PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK IS DRY AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERTAKES THE PLAINS. GIVEN ADVECTION OF DRIER DEWPOINTS INTO THE CWA...AND BEING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW...THINK DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING MAY BE A LITTLE BROADER THAN PROGGED. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS ON SEVERAL MORNINGS THROUGH MID-WEEK...BUT EITHER HELD MAX TEMPS NEAR PREVIOUS VALUES OR RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY...THOUGH READINGS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. RECORD COLD MAX TEMPS FOR JULY 14-16 ARE AROUND THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND CURRENT FORECAST WOULD APPROACH BUT NOT THREATEN THE RECORDS. RECORD COLD MIN TEMPS FOR JULY 14-16 ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND CURRENT FORECAST WOULD APPROACH AND POSSIBLY THREATEN THOSE RECORDS. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014 KOMA MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE... LOOK FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE FOR KOFK THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR NOW MENTIONED AFTER 03Z...WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...BUT MAY SEE SOMETHING DEVELOP EARLIER...JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP BEFORE THEN. SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS AT KOMA AND KOFK AND AGAIN LATER SATURDAY MORNING. COULD ALSO SEE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY SHORT TERM...MAYES LONG TERM...MAYES AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

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