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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KOAX 111821
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
121 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

WITH THE MORNING UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS/TEMPS/CLOUDS PER TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...BUT ADJUSTED THEM DOWNWARD WHERE
CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGER AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENTS IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PLATTE
RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH ACTIVE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES GENERALLY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...WITH BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.  OVER TOP OF THE
RIDGE...75-85KT UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS NOTED NEAR THE MT-ND/CANADA
BORDER.  850MB LOW WAS ROUGHLY OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH WAS NEAR
THE OH/MS RIVER CONFLUENCE...WITH SOUTHERLY 850MB WINDS DRAWING
WARM/MOIST AIR OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CONVECTIVE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.  MORNING SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH THE
AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING...MAINLY SKIRTING ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY
30.  GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY...SHOULD
SEE DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...REINFORCING A WARM
FRONT/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA.  SOUTHERN CWA SHOULD
MIX OUT BOUNDARY LAYER AND REMAIN WELL CAPPED...WHILE REMAINDER OF C
WA IS NOT LIKELY TO SEE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS CAP REMAINS. EXPECT INCREASING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG THE
850MB FRONT IN NORTHEAST NEB...WITH VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET DRIVING
CONVECTION NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST
MORE OF A MULTICELL THAN SUPERCELL TYPE OF CONVECTION...WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS LOW-END SEVERE HAIL.  COULD
SEE SOME TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD LOCALLY
ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS.

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION ON SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD EXIT THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING
AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONCE
AGAIN...BULK SHEAR IS NOT PROGGED TO BE VERY STRONG...BUT WITH
COOLING MID/UPPER LEVELS...HAIL WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRY WEATHER SHOULD
OVERTAKE THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY...SPARKING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME
THUNDER IN NORTHWEST IA/NORTHEAST NE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
HAVE INCLUDED AN ISOLATED MENTION UP THERE FOR NOW...BUT DID
REMOVE POPS FROM THE REST OF THE AREA GIVEN WEAK HIT-OR-MISS
PRECIP POTENTIAL AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK IS THE DEEP AND COLD UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PROGGED TO DESCEND OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY TO MID-WEEK.  CORE
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD DESCEND THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY...AND GIVEN THE FALLING 500MB HEIGHTS AND PRESENCE
OF A MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDER ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK IS DRY
AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERTAKES THE PLAINS.  GIVEN ADVECTION OF
DRIER DEWPOINTS INTO THE CWA...AND BEING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE GREAT LAKES LOW...THINK DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING MAY BE A
LITTLE BROADER THAN PROGGED.  HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS ON SEVERAL
MORNINGS THROUGH MID-WEEK...BUT EITHER HELD MAX TEMPS NEAR PREVIOUS
VALUES OR RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY...THOUGH READINGS ARE STILL PROGGED
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.  RECORD COLD MAX TEMPS FOR JULY 14-16 ARE
AROUND THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND CURRENT FORECAST WOULD
APPROACH BUT NOT THREATEN THE RECORDS.  RECORD COLD MIN TEMPS FOR
JULY 14-16 ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND CURRENT FORECAST
WOULD APPROACH AND POSSIBLY THREATEN THOSE RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

KOMA MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE...
LOOK FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE FOR KOFK
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR NOW MENTIONED AFTER
03Z...WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...BUT MAY SEE SOMETHING
DEVELOP EARLIER...JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP BEFORE THEN. SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS AT KOMA AND KOFK AND
AGAIN LATER SATURDAY MORNING. COULD ALSO SEE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY