Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 020453 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1153 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015 OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA REALLY FOULED THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY. THE CONVECTION RESULTED IN A MESO HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THAT...COMBINED WITH EXTENSIVE BLOWOFF CLOUDINESS HAS REALLY LIMITED THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. COORDINATED WITH SPC EARLIER IN THE DAY TO LOWER THE RISK CATEGORY AND THIS STILLS SEEMS ON TRACK. LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MAKE EAST SOUTHEAST PROGRESS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE WEAKENING AND THEY COULD VERY WELL FALL APART IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THERE IS A ALSO DEFINITIVE BACK EDGE TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION...WITH NOTED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS AS THIS BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD I80 THIS EVENING...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE QUITE LIMITED. BETTER STORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WHERE MUCH STRONGER INSTABILITY EXISTS...AND THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS A SUBTLE UPPER WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND WHILE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE...IT MAY REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT WESTERN IOWA LATE TONIGHT AS IT ROLLS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL FELT NAM/GFS HAD A VERY POOR HANDLE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...THUS USED A BLEND OF HRRR/RAP/HIRES ARW/NMM MODELS FOR POP TRENDS TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...WE SHOULD HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. WITH COLD FRONT ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 AT PEAK HEATING...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THOSE LOCATIONS...WITH ALL ACTIVITY PUSHING JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...OR STALLED ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER. AREAS ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS...WITH COOLER TEMPS THAN SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015 THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A DAILY CHANCE OF STORMS AS THE REGION REMAINS GENERALLY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...THAT IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. A REINFORCING FRONT MID WEEK BRINGS MORE RAIN CHANCES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY THE END OF THE WEEK IS RELATIVELY LOW AND PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE WANING BY SATURDAY...BUT MODEL BLENDS RESULTED IN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS BY THEN. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015 NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 8000 FEET. BEST CHANCE OF TSRA WOULD BE WITH WIND SHIFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...MILLER

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