Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 031130 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 530 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 147 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015 WV IMAGERY REVEALING AN ELONGATED UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM CNTRL CANADA TO JUST OFF THE SRN CA COASTLINE WITH NRN SEGMENT SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND CLOSED SRN CIRCULATION OVER SRN CA. AT THE SFC...LEADING EDGE OF INBOUND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS ERN ND...SW SD...NERN WY WITH REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING AREA OF SNOW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SD AND THE NEB PANH WITHIN AREA OF STOUT 295K UPGLIDE. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WHERE/WHEN PCPN TYPE CHANGE WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING. GIVEN DRY LOW LYR PER OAX SOUNDING...INITIAL PCPN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE SRN CWA UNTIL INFLUX OF BNDRY LYR MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH TO SATURATE THE COLUMN OUT FOR RA OR FZRA TO COMMENCE. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH...GFSLAMP/HRRR PUT THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CWA SOMETIME BTWN 13Z-14Z THIS MORNING. WX TYPE ALGORITHM IS SHOWING -S/FZRA INITIALLY BEFORE CHANGE TO -S/FZRA MIX SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...THEN ALL SNOW BTWN 15Z-18Z. THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF PERIOD FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR AND AT THIS POINT BELIEVE MOST OF THE NRN CWA WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH. GIVEN ALL THIS...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL/ONLY MINOR ROADWAY ICING...NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. ALSO...SFC WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO CONSIDER ISSUING HEADLINE FOR MEETING ADV CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WILL EMPHASIZE THE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THOUGH IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM PDS WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING IN EARNEST ON THURSDAY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 147 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015 NO MAJOR CHANGES NEED IN THE EXTENDED PDS AS BOTH MEX/ECMMOS PROG DRY WX WITH A NICE TEMP REBOUND NEXT WEEKEND AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ALL THE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 528 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015 MESSY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS...AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLNK. COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND SWITCHES WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 35 KNOTS AT KOFK BY 14Z...KLNK BY 15Z AND KOMA BY 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY 19Z AT KOFK AND 21-21Z AT KLNK/KOMA. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...DEWALD

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