Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 230445 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014 WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN REVEALING THE NEXT FEATURE OF CONCERN IN THE FORM OF AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROF OFF THE PAC NW. MEANWHILE A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE DOME WAS CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. MODELS IN AGREEMENT POTENT PAC NW VORT MAX WILL COME ASHORE LATER TONIGHT THEN PUSH INTO S-CNTRL CANADA LATE FRIDAY. QUITE IMPRESSIVE 500MB HGT FALLS PRECEDING THE SYSTEM NOTED. PCPN CHANCES WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY REVOLVING AROUND A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CROSSING THE REGION. INCREASING DPVA ALONG THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS THURSDAY MORNING WITH ATTENDANT THERMAL BNDRY PROGGED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS TO WRN KS. SFC BNDRY BEGINS SHIFTING EWD THEN AS A WARM FRONT AND IS PROGGED TO REACH THE CWA THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN FRIDAY AFTN. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE TSTM INITIATION WED NIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED SOMEWHERE NEAR SW SD WHERE LLVL THETA-E CONVG/2" PRECIP WATER WILL BE FOCUS. EXPECT COMPLEX WILL MOVE ALONG THE SD/NEB AND SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE NRN CWA THUR MORNING. NEXT ROUND OF PCPN THEN ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GIVEN HIGH ENVIRONMENT MOISTURE CONTENT...APPEARS THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY HIGH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION MAINLY FROM NE NEB INTO W-CNTRL IA. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014 MODELS SUGGESTING NO ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH IN THE EXTENDED PDS. LARGE SCALE PATTERN ADVERTISED TO BECOME STAGNANT WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND UPSTREAM RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH NW FLOW PREVAILING ALOFT...EXPECT MAX TEMPS OVERALL TO HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 80S && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING INTO NW NEBRASKA AT 05Z WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING MID CLOUDS AFTER 00Z AS WARM ADVECTION SPREADS EAST FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NE...NONE. IA...NONE.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...FOBERT

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