Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 181720 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1220 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014 THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN OVERALL CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN HOW POOR MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION. AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS MORNING...WE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN IOWA IN RESPONSE AND EVEN BUILD BACK INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE MODEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS EVENING AND AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED. ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD A DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT A WARMER DAY WITH SOME AREAS PUSHING THE LOW 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014 NO REAL SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST UNTIL THE WEEKEND. WE DO HAVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON WED NIGHT/THURS/FRIDAY AS A COUPLE DIFFERENT MCS/S MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND POSSIBLY SKIRT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. OTHERWISE...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT SEASONABLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND LINGER INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY 00-03Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PEARSON LONG TERM...PEARSON AVIATION...DEWALD

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