Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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200 FXUS63 KOAX 162115 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 315 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 Complex forecast with headlines changing this forecast package. It has been a challenging event. Roads and other surfaces refreezing for the upcoming overnight period is a concern. Upper air charts from 12Z this morning had the following features of interest. 300 mb jet streaks of around 100 knots were noted over New England and across west Texas. The 12 hour height fall center at 500 mb was over northern Oklahoma (around 140 meters). Last evening the height fall center was over Midland TX. Closed low was near the Oklahoma and Kansas border. At 3 pm...the center of the closed mid tropospheric circulation was over northeast Kansas...with a weakening deformation zone extending from northeast Nebraska into southern Minnesota and Wisconsin. Fairly tight deformation zone had a rather intense band of radar returns across northeast Nebraska. Farther south, there were areas of drizzle and some scattered showers. Overall, we look for precipitation intensity and coverage to decrease through the evening. Will drop any headlines here shortly for areas near the Missouri border where temperatures have been in the lower to mid 30s. Warning headlines will remain in place for parts of the area until 7 pm, then will take those down to a winter weather advisory and keep that until 3 am Tuesday. Will let the next shift or two decide if an extension is needed. The primary surface low should continue to track northeast with north or northwest low level winds in our area increasing mainly into the 8 to 15 knot range. Any measurable precipitation should end by midnight or 1 am, but can not rule out a bit of drizzle or patchy freezing drizzle after that. Clouds will decrease from west to east later tonight and on Tuesday, with surface high pressure building over the area. Highs should reach the 30s so look for some improvement with the ice that is in place. Dry weather is expected then into Thursday. There are hints at Highs should be mainly in the 40s for both Wednesday and Thursday. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 We will need to monitor for some light precipitation potential for Thursday night as low level moisture returns. Did not mention anything at this time. For Friday into Sunday night, we will carry some chance of rain and snow. Depending on temperatures there may be some freezing rain. Models are in decent agreement showing a modest closed low at 500 mb lifting northeast across parts of the region Thursday into Friday. A blocking ridge over parts of Canada slows down the flow of over the central Plains over the weekend so in does look unsettled. Daytime highs should be mainly 40s or upper 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1127 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 Mosaic radar data as of 1715z indicate the primary deformation axis of the mature synoptic cyclone from central IA to n-cntrl KS. This feature will continue to pivot northeast this afternoon with freezing rain eventually mixing with sleet and snow before changing over all light snow at KOFK by late afternoon. At KOMA and KLNK, more continuous rain will transition to rain showers or drizzle as the deformation axis shifts north. IFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through 17/06z, before ceilings and visibilities begin to improve from west to east across the area late tonight into Tuesday morning. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Tuesday for NEZ044-045- 050>053-065>067-078. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM CST Tuesday for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042-043. Ice Storm Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for NEZ015-032>034- 042-043. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for NEZ088. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for NEZ011-012- 016>018-030-031. IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Tuesday for IAZ055-056- 069. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM CST Tuesday for IAZ043. Ice Storm Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for IAZ043. && $$ SHORT TERM...Miller LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...Mead

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