Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 191951 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 251 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Here comes the rain again. An area of moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms across northeast KS continues to push north this afternoon, now crossing the KS/NE border. The leading edge of this rain should make it Lincoln around 20-21z, and into Omaha around 21-22z, and Norfolk by 23-24z. Rain continues through most of the night as upper low continues to slowly move out of the central Rockies placing most of the forecast area in a favorable diffluent flow aloft pattern. While there will be thunder embedded in the rain over the at least the southern 2/3 of the area, we are not expecting severe weather at this time. There will be areas of heavy rain, and we do have an existing flash flood watch in effect for 3 counties in southeast NE, but flash flood guidance remains quite high and really not confident we`ll see enough rain to create flash flooding. The upper low moves into the area during the day Saturday while the surface low shifts into the mid Mississippi River valley. Morning showers should end across southeast NE, but numerous showers may continue through the day north of I80. Not a lot of instability to work with despite cold core moving overhead, although there appears to be very marginal instability still across western Iowa for a rumble of morning thunder perhaps. Lingering showers pull out Saturday evening, Somewhat chilly temps again Sunday morning in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with a dry and pleasant Sunday with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. A weak weak could bring some showers to the KS/NE border Sunday night. Then a stronger wave with another cold front push moves into the forecast area later on Monday, with increasing chance of showers and storms. Temps Monday into the upper 60s/lower 70s again ahead of the cold front. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Cold front continues to make progress through the forecast area Monday night, with a threat for storms. Instability pushes out of the area by Tuesday, but we remain under the influence of the cool upper trough, thus spotty showers still seem possible. Another cool day with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Then dry through the remainder of the week with warming temperatures.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Mesoanalysis at 17z placed a surface low over northwest OK with an associated surface front stretching through central KS into northern MO. Persistent warm advection and isentropic upglide to the north of this boundary have yielded widespread IFR ceilings with areas of drizzle and fog across eastern NE. Strengthening forcing for ascent downstream from a potent mid-level trough edging into the central Plains will support an uptick in shower and isolated thunderstorm activity which will spread north across the eastern NE TAF sites later this afternoon into tonight. Expect IFR ceilings to persist into Saturday morning with precipitation gradually tapering off by around 15z Saturday. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NE...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ091>093. IA...None.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...DeWald LONG TERM...DeWald AVIATION...Mead

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