Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 271742 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1242 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 A RARE DRY DAY WILL GRACE US WITH ITS PRESENCE...BEFORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO END THE WEEK. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK LOW HAD SLID INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN ID/NORTHEAST OR/SOUTHEAST WA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE QUITE WEAK...WITH SCANT AREAS OF 50+KT EVEN AT 300/250MB. SURFACE HIGH AT 07Z WAS CENTERED IN CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND AS SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST...RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST PLACES. HAVE SIGNFICANTLY SLOWED TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. MAIN RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET...AND AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MO RIVER VERY WELL COULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE WEAK IN THE CWA...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AIMED INTO CENTRAL NEB...BUT DID KEEP THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR NOW. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME..WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES LIKELY RIPPLING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH WEAK FEATURES...AND WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY IMPEDED BY ONGOING CONVECTION...THINK SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAIRLY ABRUPT...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED THE EXIT OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS AIRMASS STABILIZES AND DRIES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSECUTIVE DRY DAYS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL US...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD. FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY...WITH HINT OF POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF IT MAKING IT TO THE TAF SITES...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING ON THU. CLOUD BASES WILL CONT TO LOWER ON THU MORNING BUT SHOULD STAY AOA FL040 THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MAYES LONG TERM...MAYES AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

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