Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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366 FXUS63 KOAX 281954 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SHORT TERM...(tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Cluster of storms in southeast NE appear to be firing on the combination of daytime heating, but also within a very subtle surface trough as indicated in an objective 19z MSAS analysis. A couple of showers were also popping up further north along the Platte river. Question is how far north these could develop yet this afternoon and evening. CAMs are all offering differing solutions, with High-res ARW/NMM perhaps the furthest north. Believe there is still some northward shift yet this evening, before they weaken and diminish by mid to late evening. Remainder of the overnight may be dry, but may start to see slight chance of showers/storms spread in from the south, but chances remain slim. Should have a better chance of rain over the next couple of days as the 500mb circulation now over the 4 corners region fills and drifts northward into the mid Missouri River valley. This, combined with increasing moisture in what appears to be a weak tropical moisture connection that can be traced back the western coast of Mexico. PW values increase from around 1.3" to around 1.8" through time. Will not have continuous rain over the next couple of days, but rain chances certainly are on the upswing. Have rain chances in the 30-50% range through time, although certain areas will occasionally see likely pops, which can be fine tuned as we get a little closer. A weak trough moving through the northern CONUS late in the period should begin to shift rain chances south of the area by Wednesday into Wednesday night. Current models suggest moisture may be south of the area by Wednesday evening, so may begin adjusting pops toward a drier regime by then. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Drier weather expected for Thursday and Friday with ridging developing across the Plains. Rain chances return Saturday into Sunday as the next trough moves onto the plains, with moisture increasing again. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.) Issued at 1211 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Deep-layer moisture will increase across the region through the forecast period ahead of a mid-level low currently over the Four- Corners Region. This will yield persistent high-level clouds, boundary-layer-based cumulus through the peak of the diurnal heating cycle and isolated showers and thunderstorms. Confidence in convection affecting any TAF site remains too low to warrant mention at this juncture. Increasing low-level relative humidity and decreasing winds overnight could result in visibility restrictions due to fog toward 12z Monday, especially at KOMA and KOFK. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail. && .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DeWald LONG TERM...DeWald AVIATION...Mead

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