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000
FXUS63 KOAX 151720
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1220 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Have issued a frost advisory for the parts of the CWA that remain
active for frost/freeze headlines. With lows this morning reaching
the lower to mid 30s in areas that cleared out, have heightened
confidence of reaching the mid 30s tonight, as well, and will give
a longer heads-up so that growers can take mitigating actions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Initial forecast concerns for today are cloud cover and winds,
then attention turns to frost potential for tonight.

The system that brought active weather to the area yesterday
continued to move east. 300 mb winds in excess of 100 knots were
noted last evening from northwest KS to the western Great Lakes
region. Trough axis at 00Z was from Manitoba Canada southward
into eastern CO. 12 hour height falls were as high as 70 meters
across NE at 500 mb.

Clouds have been a little slower to clear than earlier expected
and will hold onto clouds a bit longer this morning, especially
across western IA, where NAM and RAP 925 mb RH is expected to be
highest. Those clouds will clear and northwest winds should
decrease as the surface pressure gradient decreases and high
pressure builds over KS. It will be a cool day with highs mainly
in the upper 50s and lower 60s. For tonight, a surface ridge axis
builds east across the northern and central parts of the Plains.
Winds probably will stay up a little, but we should see patchy
frost to areas of frost. Will not issue an advisory on this shift,
but one may be needed later today where frost/freeze headlines
are still active, generally along and south of a line from about
Seward to Fremont, Blair and Harlan IA. Expect lows in the 30s.

During the day Monday, high pressure moves off to the east and
southerly winds increase. That will bring in noticeably warmer
air, with highs mainly upper 60s and lower 70s. Highs Tuesday
should reach the lower and mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Most of this period remains dry, but there are some signals that
we could see showers by Saturday night. Longer range models are in
excellent agreement with the mid tropospheric pattern into Friday.
Some differences start to show up by Saturday, with the 00Z ECMWF
a bit faster in moving a trough from the Rockies out into the
Plains. Some showers appear possible from late Saturday afternoon
into Sunday morning, with the 00Z GFS more suggestive of that than
the ECMWF.

For temperatures, a weak cold front is forecast to push down into
the area Wednesday but then generally stall and wash out. Highs
the rest of the week will be mainly 70s, with lows generally mid
40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle, with clear
skies and unrestricted visibility. Winds this afternoon will reach
around 10 mph out of the northwest, becoming lighter at around 5
mph tonight as direction shifts to southwesterly. Wind speeds
should increase again to around 10 mph by mid to late morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Monday for NEZ044-045-
     051>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Monday for IAZ055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mayes
SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Mayes