Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KOAX 250516 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1216 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...(tonight through Friday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016 Latest water vapor imagery and RAP 500mb analysis show weak shortwave ridging overhead this afternoon behind a departing complex now over Missouri. Southwesterly flow continues with a few embedded weak shortwaves of interest. The first is over northeast Colorado with another showing up across western Kansas where a few lightning strikes have been noted. Afternoon surface analysis shows area of low pressure over southeast Colorado with very little in the way pressure differences across all of Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Boundary layer moisture remains in place with surface dewpoints fluctuating this afternoon and falling slightly into the upper 50s across our western counties where surface winds turned more southwesterly along a weak boundary. Forecaster uncertainty remains high as a few waves of convection are forecast to drift through the area as early as this evening. With the lack of a strong forcing mechanism late this afternoon into this evening, we continue to question some of the CAM solutions on developing storms over the area before dark. It seems more likely that storms that initiate across western Nebraska and parts of Kansas would spread east/northeast across the forecast area overnight tonight and continue into Wednesday morning. This being said, with a primed and unstable airmass in place, cannot rule anything out and so will continue monitor any convective developments closely. Thunderstorms that roll through overnight should continue into Wednesday morning and exit by afternoon. The cycle continues as several embedded shortwaves drive through southwesterly flow aloft and interact with several boundaries left over from previous convection. A stronger synoptic front will extend northeast from lee cyclone over western Kansas into southeast Nebraska on Thursday which will be the focus for strong thunderstorms Thursday and again on Friday. As has been the case in the past couple days, high moisture content could lead to very heavy rain in the stronger convection. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016 By Friday night, a shortwave trough is forecast to extend across western Nebraska and Kansas and slide northeast into the Missouri River Valley by 00Z Sunday. Lee surface cyclone will also slide east/northeast across Kansas Friday through Saturday with an eastward extending warm front that will continue to be the primary focus for thunderstorm development. Shortwave ridging is expected over the area by mid day Sunday with persistent southwesterly upper level flow into next week. Sunday looks like our best shot at a dry forecast period with pops entering into the picture again Sunday night as a series of shortwaves roll northeast through the region. && .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 06Z Thursday) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016 A loosely organized bowing complex of storms is spreading northeast across portions of southeast Nebraska, potentially impacting KLNK within the next hour. A second linear MCS over central Nebraska will reach KOFK about 09z, KLNK around 10z and KOMA by about 11z. Have included a mention of MVFR ceilings and visibilities with the passage of these storms. In the wake of the storms, MVFR ceilings could linger into Wednesday afternoon before becoming VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kern LONG TERM...Kern AVIATION...Mead is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.