Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 230910 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 410 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SHORT TERM...(today through Saturday) Issued at 402 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Latest water vapor imagery along with 00Z subjective 500 mb analysis shows an upper level ridge axis extending over the nation`s mid- section with a potent upper trough digging across the Great Basin. At the surface, an associated lee-side low was centered over eastern Colorado early this morning while a large area of high pressure was moving east across the Ohio Valley keeping fairly dry southeasterly flow over the CWA. 00z 850mb analysis showed strong 850mb warm/moist advection over much of the Central Plains. An extensive stratus deck continues to spread north across central Kansas and is forecast to continue to spread north/northeast through central and eastern Nebraska/southwest Iowa through early afternoon before scattering out mid to late afternoon. Scattered showers or drizzle is possible in association with strong isentropic upglide in low-mid level warm air advection regime. As the clouds do scatter this afternoon, temperatures in our southern CWA should be able to reach the lower 70`s which is a few degrees above guidance. Across areas in our north, did leave temps in the lower 60s where clouds will stick around through peak heating. By 00z tonight, the Great Basin low is forecast to close off and move across southern Colorado with the surface cyclone quickly deepening over eastern Colorado. Ahead of this, a strengthening southerly low-level jet is forecast to increase to around 50-70kts across much of the Central Plains. Steep mid-level lapse rates will spread across western and central Nebraska late this afternoon as the system slides into southeastern Colorado. Despite a lack of rich low-level moisture, convection could develop along strong low-level convergence zone along the frontal boundary extending from sfc low northeast across central and northeastern Nebraska. Latest runs of the HRRR and RAP are beginning to pick up on this as well. SPC Day1 includes a Slight Risk over northeast Nebraska which seems reasonable for big hail into late evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight along and behind the frontal boundary as it drifts south through the northern CWA into Friday morning. Some scattered activity still possible in the warm sector within strong isentropic upglide region. Showers become more likely through the day Friday as the upper circulation drifts east across Kansas with the surface low hugging the Kansas/Oklahoma border. Higher QPF values will remain in bands across our northern CWA with temperatures profiles indicating all rain. A break in activity is expected by later Saturday morning as the system moves southeast into Missouri and weak shortwave ridging builds overhead. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 402 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017 A shortwave trough will slide over the Colorado Rockies and swing into western Kansas by Sunday afternoon with another surface low hugging the Kansas/Oklahoma border. This will bring best chances to our southern CWA into Monday afternoon. Shortwave ridging will build overhead behind this system with a deepening trough over the southwestern CONUS by the end of the period. Model uncertainty remains with the ECMWF bringing this system into Kansas whereas the GFS keeps the system across central Texas. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Continuing influx of llvl moisture into ern Neb will result in deteriorating conditions going from low end VFR cigs to mix of MVFR/IFR cigs btwn 12z-18z this morning. Areal coverage of -RA over ern Neb will be isold/sct in nature and confidence is low any of the terminals will see any pcpn. this will be possible as well mainly during Thursday morning time frame. NIL improvement anticipated this aftn with MVFR conditions prevailing. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kern LONG TERM...Kern AVIATION...DEE is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.