Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 271726 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1226 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SHORT TERM...(today through Friday) Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016 QPF variance amongst the models is making fcst over the next several days problematic at best. Part of the problem is timing differences with respect to embedded impulses in NW flow aloft in conjunction with no significant thermal advection to hang your hat on. Given this...seems best approach is to base fcst on solution means. 88D radar mosaic this morning showing line of convection over cntrl Neb darting SEWD and should be crossing into the wrn CWA periphery any time now. The last several runs of HRRR/RAP13 indicate any pcpn activity over the CWA should be at a close sometime around 12z...so will gear morning POPS as such. Later this evening...area of convection may fire along/south I-80 along leading edge of weak sfc bndry migrating south. Post-frontal pcpn may be possible as well within regime of steep mid-lyr lapse rates/weak mid lyr ageostrophic lift...with destabilization being aided somewhat further by passing weak impulse. On Thursday...pcpn chances look somewhat remote given drier air mass will be building in from the north. Thursday night/Friday...pcpn chances increase from SW-NE in response to another passing shortwave trof. It appears per latest GFS/ECM/CMC the brunt of activity will be found west of the CWA. For Friday night...am content to just go with token small POPS as QPF fields are all over the place. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016 Continuing pcpn on Saturday/Saturday night will finally push to the east on Sunday in response to a low amplitude upper ridge approaching from the west. Dry conditions then the rest of the extend pds. And with increasing hgts progged to encompass the plains...a rebound in temps are expected with max temps once again pushing into the mid 90s Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Isolated storms possible east and south of TAF sites as upper short wave and weak surface cold front move across the area through 06z. && .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...Fobert

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