Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 212322 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 622 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Cold front at 19z extended from Onawa, IA southward into the Omaha metro area, and southward toward Beatrice, NE. A line of shower and storms had developed along the front, individual storms moving northeast while the front itself moving east. High-res CAMs suggest this convective activity will clear southwest IA and southeast NE by about 22z. There may be some showers that develop behind the line, but the severe threat seems essentially be south or southeast of the area where a severe thunderstorm watch is already in place. Otherwise, gusty winds behind the front, but those diminish pretty quickly this evening and back becoming west southwest. Lows drop into the mid 30s in northeast NE, and into the mid 40s southeast NE and southwest IA. Sunday should be a beautiful sunny day. West southwest surface winds 5-10 mph, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Another cold front moves into and through the area Monday night. This will bring gusty northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph to the area, with gusts 30 to 40 mph. Winds could be near advisory criteria in northeast NE, with sustained winds around 30 mph and gusts up to 45 mph. The cold air does lag the front by about 24 hours, so highs still near normal Monday in the mid to upper 60s. The colder air finally arrives on Tuesday. Northwest flow continues, and it will again be a windy day, with northwest winds at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts. Winds may be just slightly lower than on Monday. High temps Tuesday range in the mid to upper 50s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Winds back early in the period becoming west southwest on Wednesday, which should boost temps back into the mid to upper 60s. The warmup is short-lived as another strong front moves into the area by daybreak Thursday, with another surge of colder air and strong gusty northwest winds behind it. Strong northwest winds continue on Friday, with highs only in the 40s. For areas that have not received a freeze yet, we`re looking at sub 32 readings forecast area wide Friday night. Still quite cool on Saturday with highs again 45-50. There are some model differences that do need to be resolved on precip trends. GFS is wetter than the ECMWF which remains dry through the period. Thus are some some spotty slight precip chances next Friday into Saturday, and because of the cold temps, we do have both rain and snow mentioned. However, confidence is pretty low regarding Pop trends that far out. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Surface cold front has pushed through the forecast area as of 23z with gusty northwest winds expected to diminish within the next hour or so. Some mid and high-level clouds will remain across KLNK and KOMA this evening before skies clear. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DeWald LONG TERM...DeWald AVIATION...Mead

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