Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KOAX 260527 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1127 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014 RELATIVELY WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES-MS RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN PLAINS REGIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS AT 20Z OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN DAKOTAS AND MOVING SOUTHEASTERLY. UP TO 145KT JET WAS REINFORCING BEHIND THE TROUGH...WHILE UP TO 170KT JET EXTENDED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. 850MB LOW WAS CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY...AND A FEW TROUGHS UPSTREAM IN CANADA/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ND...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN SD/WESTERN NEB TOWARD THE KS/CO BORDER. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA...AND CLOUDS INCREASING THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A WARM START AND BE SLOW TO FALL NEAR THE SURFACE UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. REGIONAL 12Z OBS INDICATE A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR TOP-DOWN SATURATION TO OVERCOME THIS EVENING. BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN NORTHEAST NEB AROUND 00-03Z...BEGINNING PRIMARILY AS RAIN BEFORE WET-BULBING TEMPERATURES DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE PROFILE TO SUPPORT A RAIN-SNOW MIX LATER IN THE EVENING...AND LIKELY SNOW AFTER 06Z. AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...EXPECT SIMILAR TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW...WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN IA AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN NEB...WITH A GRADIENT IN WESTERN IA TO HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL IA AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DESCENDS THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO IA. FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS RANGE FROM JUST A TENTH OR TWO IN EASTERN NEB...TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE EASTERNMOST CWA. AMOUNTS ARE SENSITIVE TO THAT CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN WESTERN IA IF RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW MORE QUICKLY TONIGHT. IN WAKE OF THE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST POST- FRONTAL WINDS...IT WILL FEEL LIKE A BLUSTERY DAY. SURFACE HIGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF WELL INTO THE TEENS...BUT RETURN FLOW COMMENCES ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD MILDER READINGS. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...WITH BLACK FRIDAY EARLY-MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-20S AND TEMPERATURES RISING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S AND 50S ON FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014 MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER SUSTAINED WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW AND NEARLY ZONAL JET. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER IS PROGGED TO DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL US...BRINGING ABRUPTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A COLD SUNDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...RETURN FLOW INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND RECOVERING TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014 SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN AS RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. A MIX OF RA/SN CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS WE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP SFC TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH THROUGH THE AREA...AND HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KOFK. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL GUST AT OR ABOVE 30KTS AND THESE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MAYES LONG TERM...MAYES AVIATION...KERN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.