Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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712 FXUS63 KOAX 230821 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 321 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Ridge of high pressure currently across the Mid Missouri Valley shifts east today resulting in breezy southwest winds. This should easily boost temps into the lower to mid 70s. Surface dewpoints in the lower/mid 30s, and may even mix a little lower this afternoon results in humidity values around 20-25% today, with lowest values in northeast NE. This does help create very high fire danger along and north of I80 today. If humidity goes any lower due to additional mixing as indicated by the RAP, red flag warning conditions could develop for a an hour or two in northeast NE. A weak wave currently moving onto the west Coast moves across the Rockies tonight, and into the area Monday. Increasing high clouds will be present overnight, with temps remaining in the upper 40s. Spotty showers could occur in northeast NE Monday, but elsewhere remains dry, with another wind day with high temps in the lower to mid 70s ahead of an advancing cold front. Surface humidity should be slightly higher on Monday, so fire danger is a little lower. Another wave coming out of the Rockies Monday night brings increasing precipitation chances to the region. There is some instability and thus isolated thunderstorms could also occur across eastern NE. Precip chances increase to 40-70% Tuesday with highest chances north of I80. Little if any rain is expected in southeast NE along the NE/KS border. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Precip chances begin to wind down Tuesday night after midnight. Colder temps are moving into the region, and lows in northeast NE could drop into the mid 30s. If there`s any precip left, it could end as a rain/snow mix, although it seems the better dynamics/moisture are moving out by the time the colder air arrives. GFS/ECMWF are generally dry on Wednesday, but given weak trough and cool temps aloft could result in some instability showers across the region. Wednesday night and Thursday morning should be dry, but the next weak wave moving out of the Rockies could bring more rain chances Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Significantly better chances for rain arrive Friday afternoon and beyond, with 40-60% chances through the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 A surface ridge axis stretching from the mid MO Valley to central High Plains as of 04z will build southeast overnight with winds becoming southerly at the eastern NE TAF sites. By late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon, the onset of deeper boundary-layer mixing and an intensifying lee trough over the High Plains will yield gusty winds which should diminish by evening. Skies should remain generally clear through the forecast period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DeWald LONG TERM...DeWald AVIATION...Mead

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