Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 181743 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1243 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014 A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THE LATTER HALF...AS WEST COAST SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. HOWEVER...BEFORE THEN TEMPERATURES ARE PRIMARY FOCUS INTO SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING OVER PLAINS TODAY WILL PROVIDE WARM ADVECTION AS NRN SECTION OF WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH BRINGS FALLING PRESSURES OVER WRN PLAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE FA...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON. THIS IN TURN SHOULD BRING AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER TO AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS COULD RECOVER A BIT TODAY...LOWERING THEM TOWARD GUIDANCE DID PROVIDE A PERIOD OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 30 PERCENT. PREV FORECAST TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE AND WERE SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT SOUNDINGS/MODEL GUIDANCE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET COULD KICK OFF A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS IN NWRN ZONES SATURDAY MORNING AS ANY ENERGY ON SRN SIDE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH INTERACTS. HOWEVER...AS THAT TROUGH DEPARTS WOULD SUSPECT BETTER CHANCES OF ANY CONVECTION WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE FEEDS NORTH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN SRN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH REGION. BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS OF GFS/ECMWF...H85 MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST THRU SAT AFTN COMPARED TO LAST SATURDAY SO MAIN ACTION MAY WAIT FOR DIURNAL LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING. THUS ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A DECREASED CHANCE MANY AREAS SAT AFTN/EVENING WITH BEST CHANCES GENERALLY FOCUSED AFT 06Z. BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT SERN ZONES AHEAD OF WEAK BOUNDARY AS H85 TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM AHEAD OF IT. SUNDAY BECOMES MORE TRICKY AS SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH BEGINS EJECTING ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN PLAINS BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO IMPACT FA. WITH H85 TEMPS INITIALLY ANYWAY PRETTY MILD ANY BREAKS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD PROVIDE A QUICK BOOST INTO 70S WHILE AREAS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PCPN COULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 60/MID 60S. IN GENERAL FOCUSED COOLER TEMPS GENERALLY WHERE GFS/ECMWF FOCUSED QPF AXIS ACROSS WRN ZONES AND ALSO BOOSTED POPS MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY PARTS OF THE WEST. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014 DEPARTING ENERGY EARLY MONDAY COULD PROVIDE SERN ZONES WITH SMALL MOSTLY MORNING POPS MONDAY OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY MON AFTN THROUGH TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS THE PLAINS. SINCE THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD PROVIDE AN ACTIVE MID/LATE WEEK...REMOVED SMALL POPS WITH WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY. BOOSTED READINGS A BIT ON WED AS THAT WILL BE SECOND DAY OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS NEXT THROUGH ALTHOUGH IF WARM ADVECTION PRECIP IS WIDESPREAD/LINGERS MUCH OF THE DAY THIS WOULD BE IN ERROR. OTHERWISE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO PREV FORECAST/MODEL BLEND TO TEMPS. DECENT RAIN/TSTM CHANCES RETURN IN LATE WED-THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY NEW DAY 7 PERIOD IF UPPER TROUGH CLOSES NW OF AREA PER GFS INSTEAD OF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF. IN ANY EVENT...LOOKS LIKE DECENT CHANCE MANY AREAS COULD SEE DECENT 7 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS WITH ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND+NEXT WED/THU PERIODS. && .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. MORNING SMOKE AND HAZE HAS MIXED OUT AND VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS INCREASE AND GUST TO NEAR 30 KTS. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM NEAR 06Z THROUGH 15Z OR SO AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHERMOK LONG TERM...CHERMOK AVIATION...KERN

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