Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 222010 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 310 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014 THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS AND TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THIS PERIOD. UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM 12Z SHOWED THE FOLLOWING. MAIN JET SEGMENTS AT 300 MB WERE NOTED PUNCHING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST (110 KNOTS) OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO (65 KNOTS) AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA...AND FROM MICHIGAN SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC (70 KNOTS). AT 500 MB CLOSED LOWS WERE LOCATED IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON STATE AND IN CENTRAL ARIZONA. THESE WERE EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT COVERED THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. RIDGES WERE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AMPLE MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING AT KOAX WAS 2.00 INCHES...700 MB DEWPOINT WAS 8 DEGREES CELSIUS AND THE K INDEX WAS 40. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE BEEN BUBBLING MUCH OF THE DAY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. SOME STORMS HAD RECENTLY DEVELOPED NORTH OF OMAHA. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTS THAT CURRENT STORMS IN THE AREA WILL TEND TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WOULD BE GENERALLY ALONG OR NORTH OF THE 850 MB WARM FRONT. SINCE THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE....WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS PRETTY DEEP (MOSTLY 11000 TO 13000 FEET) AND CAPE PROFILES SHOULD STILL BE FAVORABLE... EXPECT AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MOST LIKELY SPOT FOR THIS TO SETUP IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS THERE OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 70 AT MOST LOCATIONS. FOR SATURDAY...BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE TRACKING EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS NORTH OF OUR AREA. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW POPS NORTH WITH BOUNDARY POSSIBLY LINGERING THERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER AND MID 90S SOUTH AND UPPER 80S OR NEAR 90 NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. DECIDED TO KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS GOING...BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS BUT AMOUNTS IF ANY SHOULD BE LIGHT. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PATTERN IS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR PCPN IN OUR AREA AS A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB WILL TRACK FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. HEIGHTS BUILD A LITTLE AS THE MID TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYLONE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSOURI/ILLINOIS/ KENTUCKY BORDER REGION. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 80S NORTH TO 90S SOUTH. LOOK FOR MINOR COOLING MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014 MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS AT 500 MB OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY WILL MOVE EAST TO OUR AREA BY MID WEEK AND THEN MOVE MAINLY EAST OF US BY LATE WEEK. THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BUT THEN DECREASE A BIT. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE NORTH OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KANSAS AND MISSOURI. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014 AREA OF CUMULUS CLOUDS HAD DEVELOPED AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME AND WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. BROKEN CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR...BUT SOME FL020 CIGS COULD OCCUR NEAR KOFK FOR A TIME EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS COULD FIRE AT ANY TIME AFTER 22Z BUT LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST KOMA WILL BE MOST LIKELY SITE TO SEE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE EXPECT CHANCES AND AREAL COVERAGE TO INCREASE BY 05Z AT ALL SITES WITH KOFK THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. ATTENDANT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN ANY STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING NORTH OF ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10KT PREVAILING. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...DERGAN

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