Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 142017 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 317 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014 EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDC A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTNDG FM SE MN SWWD INTO NRN NEB. THIS FNT WILL MOV SEWD THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER ERN MT PER AFTN WV IMAGERY/ MOVS SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE PLAINS CONTS TO BE LIMITED...AND BELOW SOME FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED ON THE 12Z RAOBS FROM KDNR/KLBF. THIS MAKES CONVECTIVE COVERAGE A BIT UNCERTAIN OVERNIGHT. 12Z NAM/GFS POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEVER COMPLETELY REMOVE THE MUCIN OVERNIGHT. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING /ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA/ AS THE SHRTWV NEARS AND THIS...ALONG WITH PERSISTENT UPGLIDE ON THE 305 K ISENTROPIC SFC WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A VERY SLOW INCREASE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY LATE EVNG. NEAR OR JUST AFTERNOON MIDNIGHT SOME CAMS DO INDC CI TAKING PLACE...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE MO RIVER AND WILL CENTER OUR HIGHEST POPS NEAR THIS TIME AND OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FA WHERE THE MOISTURE PROFILE ARE THE DEEPEST ALLOWING FOR THE WEAKEST MUCIN. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR FA ON MON MRNG WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE FA FOR MON/MON NIGHT. THIS AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR AS CHILLY AS THE ONE ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AND FROST DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ON MON NIGHT...BUT SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SIMILAR TO SAT MRNG. THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE FA ON TUE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN INCREASING. MODELS...NAMELY THE GFS/GEM...INDC SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN BY TUE NIGHT FOR SOME ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS APPEARS TO BE A BIT OVERDONE BUT WE WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF OUR SCHC POPS TUE NIGHT LIMITING THEM TO GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF I80 AND WAIT FOR BETTER AGREEMENT TO INCREASE. ANY CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO WED MRNG BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014 GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA ON FRI NIGHT/SAT MRNG. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR THU/FRI WITH TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 80 BY FRI. WILL INCREASE THE POPS FOR THE FRI NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH THE MODELS INCDG MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE FA ON SAT MRNG WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SAT AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014 AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO NEBRASKA BY LATE EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KOFK...KEPT MENTION JUST AT KOMA AND KLNK WHERE CHANCES APPEARED A LITTLE HIGHER. KOFK COULD BE MORE IMPACTED BY A SECOND PRECIP AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD OUT OF SD AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD SW MN BY MONDAY MORNING. THE CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT SE OF TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING AS THE WAVE CONTINUES SE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD AVIATION...CHERMOK

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