Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 232319 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 619 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SHORT TERM...(tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Early-afternoon water vapor imagery and 12z upper-air analysis showed mid-level ridging along the spine of the U.S. and Canadian Rockies with a weak downstream perturbation moving into the upper Great Lakes. This upper-air disturbance is associated with a cold front which moved through our area earlier this morning with 18z surface observations indicating modest cold advection occuring in the wake of the frontal passage. A surface ridge axis currently over the western Dakotas will build through the mid Missouri Valley tonight, yielding favorable conditions for radiational cooling. Further amplification of the aforementioned mid-level ridge is forecast Monday into Monday night, before heights begin to lower in response to the progression of an impulse from the central Rockies into mid Missouri Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night. The 12z runs of the ECMWF and GFS suggest that a this disturbance will be associated with a weak surface low which will develop from western Kansas into eastern Nebraska, while an associated warm front lifts north through eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Both forcing for ascent and moisture/instability will increase ahead of the migratory mid-level trough and attendant surface low, supporting increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday into Tuesday night. Forecast soundings within the system warm sector suggest that an overlap of modest instability and vertical shear will exist to support a few strong storms Tuesday afternoon into evening. Showers may linger across our western Iowa counties Wednesday morning before shifting to the east of the area by afternoon. We will see high temperatures in lower to mid 60s on Monday with strengthening low-level warm advection boosting readings into the 70-75 degree range by Tuesday afternoon within the warm sector over southeast Nebraska. Highs will fall back into the 60s by Wednesday with the passage of a cold front. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016 Mid-level heights will once again build along the Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the middle to latter part of the upcoming workweek. In the low levels, a lee trough will become established over the High Plains, supporting west-southwest downslope winds. This pattern will yield above-normal temperatures, especially on Thursday and Friday where highs could reach the lower to mid 70s. A cold front is expected to move through the area late Friday or Saturday with cooler temperatures expected by next weekend. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle. An area of high pressure over the Northern Plains will continue to sag southeast and skirt the TAF sites through the overnight. Return flow will bring southerly winds to the area by Monday late morning.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mead LONG TERM...Mead AVIATION...Kern is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.