Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 010753 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 253 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015 UNSETTLED/ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER IS UPON US. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED IN UT...WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED IN THE GREAT LAKES. TOP OF THE RIDGE WAS FLATTENING A BIT...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 60M IN MT. UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK UP TO 115KT HAD SHIFTED EASTWARD...DIVING FROM NORTHERN MN INTO IA. RIDGE AXIS AT 850MB EXTENDED FROM EASTERN OK/EASTERN KS THROUGH THE IA/NE BORDER AND EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH ABUNDANT 8C+ MOISTURE ACROSS MHCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MO/MS RIVER VALLEYS. SURFACE HIGH AT 07Z HAD SHIFTED EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHWESTERN NEB. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEB INTO MO...WITH SCATTERED POCKETS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE IN THE DAKOTAS/NEB. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALIGNED WITH AN 850MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...WITH INCREASING 850MB FLOW IMPINGING ON THAT BOUNDARY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO FESTER TODAY...BUT ALSO SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD AS 850MB WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER. WOULD EXPECT SOMETHING OF A LULL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THAT ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...BEFORE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND DRAGS A BROADER SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY...POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ON FRIDAY...PUSHING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AND LEAVING A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS EASTERLY SURFACE WIND COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE 80S IN TIME FOR SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015 THOUGH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES THE FLOW A LITTLE MURKY...PRESENCE OF SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP WEATHER QUIET THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER=LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO COLLAPSE AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US AND DRAGGING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL US. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCREASES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THAT FRONT APPROACHES...WITH CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA AS THE BOUNDARY BECOMES EAST-WEST ORIENTED AND STALLS SOMEWHERE NEAR KS/MO. FRONT SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AFTER A MODERATING TREND SUNDAY/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH POCKETS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MAYES LONG TERM...MAYES AVIATION...FOBERT

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