Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 241711 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1211 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016 Thunderstorms that had been over parts of southeast Nebraska this morning had moved out and clouds continue to decrease. Made a few changes to grids for this afternoon...decreasing cloud cover but also tweaking temperatures and winds. Looks like better chance of storms will be after mid evening...possibly in some of our western counties. Experimental HRRR will not be available until later this evening. 15z SPC HRRR output seemed reasonable.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(today through Thursday) Issued at 407 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016 Latest radar trends show storms will move out of the County Warning Area by 9z. Along, but mostly south of, the Nebraska/Kansas border storms will continue for the next few hours. The 00z upper air maps indicate the area remains under large scale southwest flow with the main upper level trough just now coming onshore along the western CONUS. Several shortwaves will continue to push through the area, creating an unsettled weather pattern through the week. A significant amount of moisture is in place across the region as +10C 850mb dew points have surged north, well into Minnesota in fact. While a severe threat exists most days this week, the potential for very heavy rainfall shouldn`t be lost. Where the heavy rain and subsequent flooding will occur will depend mostly on where storms develop and if any repetitive storm motions occur. For today the big question is when, and if, new development will occur. The shortwave trough responsible for the previous nights weather will push east into central Iowa early this morning. A temporary rise in mid-level heights should allow for a lull in precipitation this morning. Opted to slowly increase precipitation potential by this afternoon as the next shortwave enters central and eastern Nebraska. Some convective models keep the area mostly dry, while others bring a large MCS across eastern Nebraska and into western Iowa. Despite the uncertainty feel comfortable enough to have high precipitation chances by late this evening through the overnight hours. With little change in the weather pattern on Wednesday or Thursday, expect more of the same. Diminished precipitation chances through the morning, then new development by afternoon with continued storms through the night. A significant heavy rainfall threat will exist these days as well. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 407 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016 For Thursday night the large scale pattern continues to point to a heavy rainfall threat, and probably more so than previous days. A strong low-level jet should allow for significant moisture transport to begin sometime after 03Z Friday. Placement of the surface warm front will be key to pinning down where the biggest threat is. Right now the best available moisture, as shown by high PWAT anomalies, is situated across far eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Thereafter there is little opportunity for dry weather until late Saturday night when the main upper trough has pushed through the area. This appear short-lived as southwest flow develops again as another western trough forms, putting the area once again into an unsettled pattern for Sunday night and possibly into Monday. && .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 18Z Wednesday) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016 Generally look for VFR conditions until thunderstorms move in or develop later this evening. MVFR or lower conditions possible in storms...possibly down into the IFR category especially for visibility. MVFR ceiling could linger much of Wednesday morning.
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&& .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...Miller SHORT TERM...Pearson LONG TERM...Pearson AVIATION...Miller

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