Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 271205 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 605 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014 ENDING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...THEN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. SHORTWAVE THAT EJECTED THROUGH THE PLAINS BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF SNOW WAS MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THE MORNING. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WAS BASICALLY OVER FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES FOR AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE SATURATED DENDRITIC TEMPERATURE LAYER BEGINS TO DRY OUT. LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED A LITTLE EARLIER. SNOWFALL APPEARED TO AMOUNT TO ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG INTERSTATE 80...AND NO MORE THAN A DUSTING IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. WILL GET A BETTER READ ON EXACT AMOUNTS LATER THIS MORNING WHEN COOPERATIVE OBSERVER REPORTS COME IN. WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY AS CLOUDS SCOUR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST IN SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND EXITING WAVE. ALREADY SEEING CLEARING IN OUR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. COLD ADVECTION EARLY THEN WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOWCOVER IN PLACES...WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SUNRISE TEMPERATURES DESPITE SUNSHINE. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. A RELATIVELY MODEST WARMUP STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIED TO SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE ROCKIES AND THE WEST. SNOW COVER AND INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY LIMIT HIGHS TO BELOW MODEL OUTPUT...BUT SHOULD SEE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO ENTER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OOZE SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 850 TEMPS DROP 10C FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEP TROUGH SLOWLY SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THICKENING CLOUDS AND INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR SPILLING SOUTH BEHIND FRONT SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP FALLING THROUGH THE DAY IN OUR NORTH...AND GAIN ONLY A FEW DEGREES IN THE MORNING IN THE SOUTH BEFORE FALLING. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN THE MORNING TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BY AFTERNOON. MOIST AND DEEPENING DENDRITIC TEMPERATURE LAYER TRAILING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT CENTERED AROUND 750MB WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH AND SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH WEAKENING WITH TIME AS WELL. BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT/MOISTURE WILL RESIDE OVER OUR NORTH WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF FLUFFY SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014 COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE SOME SLIGHT MODERATION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AXIS OF BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...WESTERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF AN UPPER LOW WHILE EASTERN HALF PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST THEN EAST. THE RESULT FOR OUR PART OF THE WORLD WILL BE FOR THERMAL TROUGH TO MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS WITH MODEST HEIGHT RISES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...LEADING TO SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK. BEFORE THAT...POTENTIAL FOR FRESH SNOWCOVER FROM MONDAY SNOWS COMBINED WITH COLD AIRMASS WILL YIELD SUB-ZERO LOWS...AT LEAST FOR OUR NORTHERN CWA...BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO LATE IN THE WEEK...WESTERN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL NEED TO BE NAILED DOWN WITH TIME...BUT THE CHANCE FOR DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS AS PER GFS FORECAST FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS TREND. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 602 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014 VFR CONDITIONS HAD DEVELOPED FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS UPPER WAVE LIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. KOMA STILL HOLDING ON TO MVFR CIGS AT 12Z BUT EXPECT CLEARING TO REACH THE SITE BY 14Z. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...FOBERT

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