Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 260802 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 302 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DEAL WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION COMES INTO PLAY IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT WAVE. SOME PRECIP MAY OCCUR AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA FRIDAY EVENING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW. WARMER AIR RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH COMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015 NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH PULLS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GFS AND EURO DIFFER ON TIMING OF FEATURE THIS RUN SO LATER ADJUSTMENTS POSSIBLE. TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES DURING THE PERIOD AS MORE ZONAL PROGRESSIVE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS TIME WHILE ECMWF SHOWS LESS ENERGY. MAIN RESULT IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP SOLUTIONS WITH TREND TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LOW POPS AT THIS TIME.
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&& .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. COULD BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK 20-01Z...AND AT KLNK/KOMA 22-03Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...DEWALD

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