Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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719 FXUS63 KOAX 271956 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 256 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(tonight through Saturday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016 Cold front extending from central MN into northern NE will push into the area tonight. Water vapor shows one short wave across western IA with a cluster of thundershowers from Red Oak to Atlantic will mainly affect central IA late this afternoon and could just brush southwest IA. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery indicated another short wave moving through western SD, with thunderstorms developing across western through south central SD. These were moving east southeast and could very well remain west of the forecast area overnight. Thus precip chances across the area remain slim at best tonight but with the front moving into the area, will still maintain a 20% chance, with all precip chances winding down by daybreak Thursday as high pressure continues to build into the area. The HRRR and RAP try to develop convection, but HighRes NMM/ARW remain dry. The Nam and GFS hint at spotty precip, while the ECMWF remains dry. Will go dry for Thursday with high pressure and northerly flow, with below normal temps in the lower to mid 80s. All precip chances remain well west of the forecast area across the High Plains. The area remains in weak northwest flow through the remainder of the short term. Weak disturbances could affect the area late Thursday night through Saturday with a continued small 20-30% chance of rain. Friday could see temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Saturday back to the lower to mid 80s. All below normal. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016 An upper ridge builds back across the plains which allows temps to head back into the 90s Monday through Wednesday of next week. In that transition, there may still be a small rain chance Sunday, but then dry for Monday. Models hint at weak front trying to move in under the ridge Monday night into Tuesday. Models unclear what happens to the front 7 days out, thus confidence is low in forecast details that far out.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Isolated storms possible east and south of TAF sites as upper short wave and weak surface cold front move across the area through 06z. && .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DeWald LONG TERM...DeWald AVIATION...Fobert

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