Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 250544 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1144 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015 STRONG SHORTWAVE BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN TO START THE WORK WEEK...REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES. STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIVING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS 150KT 300MB JET ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE. BOTH FEATURES WILL MOVE TOWARD OUR AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND PROGRESS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ALREADY OCCURRING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA CAUSED BY WEAK VORTICITY LOBE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...WITH WING OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN/SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF MAIN SHORTWAVE. COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THIS EVENING WITH WESTERN NEBRASKA ACTIVITY...BUT MAIN PRECIP CHANCE WILL COME LATER THIS EVENING WITH NORTHERN PLAINS ACTIVITY. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE MARKEDLY BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA...WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR NORTH WHERE LIFT ASSOCIATED BY MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARM SURFACE LAYER WILL KEEP PRECIP LIQUID PAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN...CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BUT STILL SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARM TO OFFER DOUBT WHETHER PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW EXCEPT FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. WHERE SNOW DOES FALL...QPF LOOKS TO REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH MELTING OCCURRING AS WELL. THUS AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ARE FORECAST NORTH AND EAST OF THE OMAHA METRO AREA...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION SOUTH AND WEST. WINDS WILL ALSO KICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACCOMPANIED BY 50KT 850 JET...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PROMOTING MIXING OF BOUNDARY LAYER...SUGGEST WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND MID SUNDAY MORNING. WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA TO COVER THIS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING BY NOON SUNDAY...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAY. THUS TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY REMAIN STEADY OF FALL MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED. COOLDOWN BEHIND SYSTEM WILL BE BRIEF AS WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS MAY RISE OVERNIGHT AFTER AN EVENING LOW...THEN A WIND SHIFT BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OCCUR EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PROMOTE DECENT MIXING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 850 TEMPERATURES IN THE 8-10C RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD REACH 60 IN OUR SOUTHWEST WITH PLENTY OF 50S ELSEWHERE. A QUICK SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TUESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS NORMALLY NOT A WARM WIND FOR US...SO TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 5 OR 10 DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE A SIMILAR- TO-MONDAY LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE. STILL SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015 ANOTHER WARM DAY WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND LIKELY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER BY NEXT WEEKEND. UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME BRIEFLY ZONAL IN THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER MILD DAY WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PUMPING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 50S. SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS WAVE WITH 850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING SOME 20C BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE...BUT TRACK OF SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURSDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO FAR...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO TOP 40. A LITTLE WARMER FRIDAY AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN BRIEFLY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER GREATLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FORECAST. GFS BRINGS A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING PATTERN TO THE PLAINS WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE. ECMWF KEEPS PRECIPITATION WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND SLAMS THE PLAINS WITH MINUS 20C 850 AIR. FOR NOW OUR FORECAST WILL BLEND THESE TWO SCENARIOS WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015 LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXPECT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID SUNDAY MORNING. CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THIS FORECAST BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE IFR CEILINGS FROM 10-14Z AT OFK AND OMA. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW OVERNIGHT BUT DON/T THINK THESE SHOULD LIMIT VISIBILITY MUCH. BUT THE MAIN STORY SHOULD BE THE WIND AND LOW CEILING POTENTIAL.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018- 030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078. IA...NONE.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...PEARSON

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