Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 200804 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 304 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(today through Monday) Issued at 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016 Isolated showers or sprinkles will be possible northeast NE and western IA early this morning, but should be east of the forecast area by 15z. Experimental 3km HRRR and 4km NSSL WRF models hint at some instability showers developing this afternoon underneath relatively cool temps aloft, but that may also just be a cumulus field that should develop, but will monitor and adjust the forecast if any sprinkles develop by mid afternoon. Otherwise, it will be much cooler than normal today with breezy northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph and highs only in the lower and mid 70s. High pressure begins to settle over the forecast area this evening, resulting in clearing skies and diminishing winds. Temps tonight drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s, or typical normal nighttime temps for the beginning of Fall instead of mid Summer. It should be a beautiful day Sunday with Southerly flow slowly returning with abundant sunshine, highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and light winds less than 10 mph. Winds become breezy again Monday with a south-southwest component, with speeds 15 to 20 mph and gusts 20 to 30 during the afternoon. Should still be a beautiful day with a lot of sunshine with highs in the mid 80s to near 90 once again. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016 Thunderstorm chances re-enter the area Tuesday through Wednesday as monsoonal moisture moves northward as a new trough crosses the rockies pushing a cold front into the area. Will see a chance of storms Tuesday, with highest areal coverage Tuesday night. Rain chances should be over before daybreak Thursday, with dry and cooler weather for Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper 70s.
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&& .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.) Issued at 1148 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016 As of 04z, a band of mainly rain showers stretched from west- central Iowa into southeast Nebraska, behind the initial surface cold front, and likely along the elevated frontal surface (near 850 mb). This activity will likely continue to impact KOMA through about 20/07z with temporary MVFR ceilings. A secondary, stronger cold front currently from eastern South Dakota to central Nebraska will move through the area late tonight into early Saturday. The best precipitation chances associated with this boundary will likely remain north of KOFK, though there could be a period of MVFR ceilings toward 20/12z. Expect winds to become gusty from the northwest by late morning/early afternoon Saturday as the boundary layer deepens and mixes down higher-momentum flow aloft. && .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DeWald LONG TERM...DeWald AVIATION...Mead

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