Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 250446 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1146 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 252 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 Water vapor imagery this aftn showing a well define upper circulation gradually approaching the wrn Dakotas. Ahead of this system scattered TSRA has developed right along a cold front with the leading edge roughly stretching from cntrl KS to the ern Dakotas. Environmental moisture is quite stout up against the bndry with PWS around 2". Meanwhile sfc obs are revealing a secondary surge of upstream CAA over ern MT/ern WY attendant to sfc low pressure centered in wrn ND. Main issue to contend with is timing pcpn activity coming to a close tonight. All indications per RAP13 suggest bndry on the wrn periphery will move little thru this evening...but progs pcpn activity to gradually shift into wrn IA shortly after midnight as axis of upper level trof enters crosses the nrn plains...coupled with approach of synoptic cold front. Given the slow nature of ewd progression...generous rainfall amounts...particularly over our IA CWA...will likely be realized by events end early Sunday morning. Otherwise...dry and cooler conditions will prevail thru mid week with near normal max temps/slightly below normal lows. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 252 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 Both GFS/ECM/CMC in pretty good agreement well amplified upper ridge situated over the cntrl conus will keep conditions dry and relatively cool heading into next weekend. Small pcpn chances return Friday late aftn/night as several minor impulses eject from the swrn states into the cntrl plains. There is some QPF timing differences...GFS the quicker solution/ECM lagging behind by roughly 12 hrs. Otherwise...near normal temps expected thru the extended pds. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.) Issued at 1142 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 KOFK is behind the rain and soon will be post-frontal, and VFR conditions are expected. Rain will affect KOMA/KLNK for the next couple of hours, along with the potential for at least brief MVFR visibility and MVFR to IFR ceilings. Decreasing clouds will follow through the morning. Wind shift will reach KOMA/KLNK before daybreak, with winds becoming increasingly gusty at all sites by late morning to midday.
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&& .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...Mayes

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