Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 150449 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1149 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014 WITH THE EVENING UPDATE...LOWERED LOWS FOR THE SNOW COVERED AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO THE UPPER TEENS. THE BULK OF THE WET SNOW/FLURRIES HAD DISSIPATED...HOWEVER STILL SOME MID CLOUDS THEN EXPECT CLEARING. DID INCLUDE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTH...WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LOW. NOTE...WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...FOG DEPOSITING ON SURFACES COULD MAKE FOR SLICK CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014 FAST PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ALTERNATING PERIODS OF SPRING TO WINTER CONDITIONS. UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AT MID AFTERNOON WITH SPOTTY INSTABILITY SHOWERS BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES SPREADING INTO EASTERN PARTS OF NEBRASKA BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. QUICK RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP CHANCES STAYING NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO NORTHERN IOWA ON WEDNESDAY IT DRAGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF POPS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DRY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE THEN STALLS ACROSS KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS OVERRUNNING PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO SEE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM GUIDANCE THERE ON THURSDAY AS WELL AS A RESULT OF EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUDS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014 UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING. MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WAVES THAT COME ACROSS OVER THE EASTER WEEKEND SO RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE WITH POPS DURING THIS TIME. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES INDICATED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BOTH GFS AND EURO AMPLIFY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW PATCHY MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FL080-100. SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN INCREASE TO 12 TO 20KTS SUSTAINED AFTER 18Z FROM THE SOUTH. LLWS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A 50 TO 60KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

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