Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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454 FXUS63 KOAX 251759 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1259 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017 WV imagery this morning showing revealing a well amplified upper ridge building into the nrn/cntrl Plains with a stout vort max in southwestern Canada moving along the U.S.?canadian border. Both HRRR/RAP13 suggest a series of impulses/cold pockets associated with the northern tier upper low will contribute to popping off a few showers mainly this afternoon and evening as steepening mid level lapse rates envelop the region. However...given limited moisture/instability along with stiff condensation pressure deficits to overcome...showers will likely be isolated in nature. Late Friday afternoon...models in good agreement focusing the development of a cluster of storms in the southwest Neb panhandle within region of cyclonic turning low level geostrophic winds intersecting with 850mb frontogenetic forcing. Storms...possibly forming into a weak complex...are progged to eventually reaching the CWA shortly after midnight. Reasonable to assume a few locations will see generous rainfall accumulations through Saturday afternoon given PWS 1.5" and KI 35-40. Expect lingering precip will be at a close Saturday evening. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017 The medium range models appear to be in agreement dry conditions will prevail Sunday through Tuesday with max temps hovering just a bit below normal in the mid 70s. Wednesday/Wednesday night...a few impulses riding down the front end of an upper level ridge situated over the western CONUS may pop off another round of isolated showers. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with isolated thunderstorms possible from 06Z-12Z. Area of thunderstorms that is forecast to develop over western Nebraska after 21Z will spread east after 00Z. Potential exists for a period of thunderstorms across parts of eastern Nebraska after 06Z as surface cold front moves into eastern Nebraska with some support aloft from weak short wave trough.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...Fobert is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.