Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 140556 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1156 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 541 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 Updated the forecast for deteriorating fog conditions. Moist southwest flow is forecast to continue and HRRR/RAP/other short range guidance has dense fog re-developing overnight. May have to adjust timing and area as the evening goes on, however issued a dense fog advisory for parts of eastern Nebraska through mid morning Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 Nearly zonal flow aloft continues over the nation`s mid-section with moist southerly return flow at the surface. Areas of dense fog this morning have finally burned off however low-level stratus deck remains overhead. Near-term models are indicating a return of low visibilities overnight as strong low-level theta-e advection moves over the area this evening. Will mention fog into Tuesday morning for much of the area, some of which could be locally dense. Patchy drizzle or light rain remains possible across southeastern portions of our CWA Tuesday morning in warm-air advection regime with a better chance over the same area later Tuesday night as a cold front begins to sweep through the CWA. Clouds should clear fast behind the cold front into Wednesday morning. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 Temperatures will remain slightly above normal for much of the week ahead of our next upper-level trough which should begin to affect the area late Thursday. Warm-air advection regime could induce light pcpn ahead of the system before a strong cold front behind the system brings additional pcpn chances into early Saturday. With colder air behind the system, we could see a bit of a mix toward the tail-end of the system. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1148 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 Variable conditions across the area tonight with the stratus expanding into west central Nebraska and some improving conditions for the TAF sites early on. The winds have been a little stronger and are forecast a little stronger overnight. This may help keep vsbys/cigs more elevated, however low level moist advection continues...although there is drying aloft. MVFR/IFR conditions forecast early on to deteriorate to IFR with some LIFR/VLIFR possible toward morning. Southeast winds 6-12kts tonight becoming south to southwest 10 to 14kts after 16Z...then northwest Tuesday evening.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NE...Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CST Tuesday for NEZ016-017- 030>032-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088-089. IA...None.
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&& $$ UPDATE...Zapotocny SHORT TERM...Kern LONG TERM...Kern AVIATION...Zapotocny

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