Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 230450 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1150 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015 EVENING UPDATES HAVE MAINLY BEEN TO TWEAK POPS WITH BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA...LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND OTHER SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. BETTER FORCING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW AND DEEPENING OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER THETA-E ADVECTION/WARM ADVECTION...HI RES NMM TREND SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. DO MENTION FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015 TONIGHT LATEST SFC OBS THIS AFTN INDICATE MID LEVEL CIGS...ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT RAIN...WAS GRADUALLY PUSHING INTO THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. MAIN ISSUE THOUGH IS DETERMINING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE PCPN TONIGHT. RAP13 ALONG WITH HIRES AWR/NMM ARE ADVERTISING BRUNT OF ACTIVITY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE FOCUSED OVER THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WHERE 305K UPGLIDE/LOW COND PRES DEFICITS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. THERE IS AT LEAST THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME MEASURABLE PCPN MAKING ITS WAY INTO WRN IA OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH TOKEN 20S TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...RAP13 SHOWING NIL INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO MENTION OF THUNDER NOT NEEDED. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS FILLS IN THUS SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY MEAGER. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL ALSO BE MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SOUTH OF I80 SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER SATURDAY EVENING...WITH JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS FURTHER WEST OR EVEN AREAS OF DRIZZLE. AGAIN...INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY MARGINAL...AND THIS WOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERS...BUT H850 LIFTED INDEX VALUES ARE JUST SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...THUS COULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES TRY TO SCOUR OUT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT THERE REMAINS DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THUS STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 70S AND INSTABILITY FINALLY REACHES THE AREA WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS WILL ALSO BE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015 THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STILL BE IN THE FORECAST ALONG I80 TUESDAY...WHILE THE NEXT WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD GIVE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS STILL. WAVE SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TO GO DRY BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015 CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH 12Z BUT WILL PROBABLY TREND INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY SATURDAY MORNING. PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WHEN COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE WITH SOME RESTRICTION TO VSBY. IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY AT KOFK AND KLNK.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...MILLER

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