Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 281723 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1223 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 A SMOKE PLUME FROM FIRES IN CANADA HAVE MOVED INTO PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING IN A MILKY WHITE CIRRUS APPEARANCE...THUS BUMPED CLOUD COVER JUST A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS JUST A BIT...DOWN IN A COUPLE OF AREAS AND UP IN A COUPLE OTHERS BASED ON DAYTIME TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. NORTH-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ON EVENING UPPER AIR MAPS AND LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH A 90KT 300MB JET KNIFING THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN IOWA. AS EXPECTED...SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRED IN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY AS FAR WEST AS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLIER THIS MORNING. SHORT-RANGE MESOSCALE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY ON WESTERN FLANK OF PRECIP AREA WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN IOWA...AND PERHAPS FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA...THIS MORNING...WITH COVERAGE PRETTY ISOLATED WITH WESTWARD EXTENT. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS INTO MID MORNING BEFORE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WIND SHIFT/FRONTAL REFLECTION SWEEPS SOUTH. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND COULD BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES. SHOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AFTER MORNING COOL PUSH. AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PROMOTE DECENT MIXING. ALL OF WHICH POINT TO TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. PERSISTENCE WILL RULE THE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DECREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY. A SIMILAR PATTERN TO SATURDAY EVENING/SUNDAY MORNING IS SETTING UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO DROP INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER 90KT 300MB JET DIVING INTO THE PLAINS...THIS TIME NOSING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUS WOULD EXPECT A SIMILAR RESULT REGARDING SMALL PRECIP CHANCES. HOWEVER WILL NOT INTRODUCE A MENTION JUST YET AS MODEL OUTPUT IS CONSISTENT AND EXPECTED COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED. WILL INCREASE CLOUDS A BIT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE WAVE/FRONT CLEARS OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. CLEARING SKIES BUT AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL PUT HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 A MORE UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD. SEVERAL IMPULSES ROLLING SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING OFF-AND-ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH VARIED MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...TRACKS AND AMPLITUDE WITH EACH FEATURE. THUS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN WITH ANY CONFIDENCE TIMES WHEN PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS...BUT WILL TRY TO HIGHLIGHT WITH HIGHER POPS TIMES MORE SIGNIFICANT EPISODES ARE EXPECTED. THAT FIRST EPISODE COMES EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS EXPECTED ON STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WITH APPROACH OF FIRST SHORTWAVE. ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WAS FOLLOWED THIS FORECAST. EXPECT CONVECTION TO REALLY GET GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND SHOULD FAVOR THE NORTHEAST HALF OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA...ON COOL SIDE OF NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAROCLINIC ZONE. AFTER THIS CONVECTION TRACKS SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN ECMWF SUGGESTS SHALLOW SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN EXITING IMPULSE AND NEXT ONE SCHEDULED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ECMWF SHOWS A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN TO FOLLOW FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES GOING AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THE FOURTH OF JULY SATURDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM...BUT EARLIER TIMING OF YET ANOTHER WAVE SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE JUST PAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 12 TO 25 KNOTS UNTIL ABOUT 00Z...THEN LESS THAN 6 KNOTS AFTER THAT. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DEWALD SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...DEWALD

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