Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 251736 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1236 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(today through Friday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016 Cluster of convection that moved out of northeast KS early this morning continues to move through western Iowa, and may still be producing wind gusts to 40 and some pea sized hail. Meanwhile, the convection moving through north central Nebraska is already moving into our area in northeast NE. This trails west southwest along the Interstate 80 corridor all the way to northeast CO. High-res convection allowing models (CAMs) all suggest that we`ll see widespread showers and thunderstorms early this morning, but then push this out of the area by noontime. thus have adjusted morning pops to reflect this trend. Severe threat seems low this morning. For the afternoon, am thinking it may be another dry day as no significant shortwave is showing up on water vapor moving out of the Rockies. CAMs suggest a dry afternoon as well, although convection may try to fire along the weak surface trough in north central NE by 21z, which could begin to move into northeast NE by 00z. High res ARW/NMM models suggest storm chances could continue in northeast NE this evening, and also a small chance in extreme southeast NE and southwest IA. the surface trough does move into northeast NE by midnight and beyond. Additional storms could develop along/south of I80 midnight and beyond on the nose of the low level jet. Any storms that develop this evening or overnight would have a slight risk of becoming severe. Thursday could be an active weather day even though the upper trough is still spinning across the Rockies. The surface trough takes up residence across our area, extending east northeast from the lee cyclone that persists across the front range of Colorado. Storm chances increase through the afternoon and may become focused along the frontal boundary, with the potential for heavy rain with training of storms along and south of the I80 corridor by Thursday afternoon and night. Severe storms seem likely Thursday with the entire region in a slight risk of severe weather, and even an enhanced risk of storms southwest of Lincoln. The stalled frontal boundary appears to get pushed northward on Friday as the upper trough begins to move onto the plains. Storm chances remain likely Friday into Friday night, with a continued marginal risk of severe storms. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016 Storm chances continue Saturday across the region as the upper trough finally begins to transition northeast and out of the area. Believe Saturday night and Sunday morning should be mostly dry as we are in between systems. We may begin to see the influence of the next wave coming out of a mean southwestern US trough by Sunday afternoon through Monday, with storm chances again in the forecast through Tuesday.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 18Z Thursday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016 VFR conditions are forecast through Thursday morning, outside of any isolated thunderstorms that manage to pop up. That chance is slim so was not mentioned in forecasts, but an unstable atmosphere suggests hit-and-miss storms could fire late this afternoon and evening. Otherwise a general south to southwest flow at or below 12kt can be expected with scattered to broken clouds between FL050 and Fl120.
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&& .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DeWald LONG TERM...DeWald AVIATION...Dergan

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