Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 181133 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 533 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014 MORNING FORECAST FOR LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH SEEMS ON TRACK...AND HAVE IT ENDING ALL COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW AREAS OF MODERATE SNOW MOSTLY REMAINING IN NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI AS OF 09Z...WITH LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THAT AREA. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD GET BRUSHED BY THESE HEAVIER BANDS...BUT DURATION SEEMS SHORT ENOUGH TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET MOVING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH QUICKLY THIS MORNING. STILL APPEARS THAT AROUND 1 INCH WILL ACCUMULATE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS. A LIGHTER BAND ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED FROM ALBION TO NORFOLK. WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL...BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THERE. THE OMAHA METRO AREA AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WHICH SHOULD PROHIBIT THE SNOW FROM REACHING THE GROUND AT LEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. AND THEN BY THE TIME IT DOES SATURATE DOWN THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUT...SO MAINLY JUST A DUSTING IS EXPECTED IN THE OMAHA METRO AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOUNDINGS THAT SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH A SUPERCOOLED SATURATED LAYER...THE VERTICAL MOTION NEEDED TO GENERATE DRIZZLE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME. FURTHERMORE...FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS NOT BEEN REPORTED YET. WE REMOVED THE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. AFTER TODAY...CLOUDS WILL PERSIST BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW. TEMPERATURES UNDERGO A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH 40S ON SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014 THIS PERIOD INVOLVES NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...EACH ONE HAVING SOME OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL AGREEMENT IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT MOST OF THE RUNS SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY WITH AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. ANALOGS OF THIS PATTERN...OR AT LEAST THE GFS SOLUTION FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY...SUGGEST STRONG 850 WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY WINDY DAYS. INTERESTING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND PRECIP TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP WITH THE TROF. SUNDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ARE FORECAST BELOW FREEZING...SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHER AREAS SHOULD JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCE FOR RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. POPS GENERALLY UNDER 50 PERCENT AND ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 526 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014 MAIN AVIATION ISSUES ARE LIGHT PRECIP AND THEN STRATUS. WEAK SYSTEM IN KS/MO HAS SPREAD -SN TO KOFK/KLNK WITH MVFR VISBY...BUT DRY AIR CONTS TO LIMIT PRECIP AT KOMA. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLURRIES/-SN AT KOMA BETWEEN 12-15Z BUT IMPACTS TO VISBY/CIGS WILL BE MINOR. -SN WILL END AT KOFK/KLNK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS WELL. MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL START TO ADVANCE NEWD THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR CIGS AT ALL 3 SITES BY AFTN...THAT WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ATTM WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE. WE WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG AT ALL 3 SITES TONIGHT WITH HIGH LOW-LVL MOISTURE FM CURRENT -SN AND MOISTURE INCREASE WITH THE S WINDS. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...NIETFELD LONG TERM...NIETFELD AVIATION...

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