Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 272216 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 415 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015 QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING BY DAYBREAK. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MIXING IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOS GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM DIFFERS BY 21 DEGREES AT OMAHA TOMORROW. THE NAM BRINGS IN A SLUG OF LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW WHICH LOOKS SUSPECT AND THUS HAVE DISCOUNTED. WE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORDS WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST JUST BEHIND THIS FIRST WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BUT THIS SHOULD BE A QUICK SHOT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015 SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EAST AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST INTO FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL DIG IN BEHIND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS INITIALLY WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM SATURDAY...THEN IN OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD BEGIN AS SNOW EVENT IN OUR SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A RA/SN EVENT DURING THE DAY. ONCE THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DROPS DOWN...WE WILL TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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ISSUED AT 332 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015 A RIVER JAM APPROXIMATELY 1.4 MILES LONG REMAINS IN PLACE ON THE PLATTE RIVER SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92...ROUGHLY BETWEEN Q AND F STREETS. THE PAPIO NRD FLEW THE RIVER TODAY AND MENTIONED THE RIVER WAS ICE FREE UPSTREAM TO THE HIGHWAY 77 BRIDGE. A WEAK RISE IN THE PLATTE CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM COLUMBUS DOWNSTREAM AS WATER FROM THE LOUP POWER CANAL WAS DIVERTED INTO THE LOUP RIVER. THE JAM COULD LAST A FEW DAYS SO THE FLOOD WARNING WILL CONTINUE. AN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DOWNSTREAM OF THE FLOOD WARNING IN THE EVENT THE JAM SHOULD BREAK FREE. THE WARNING AND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NE...NONE. IA...NONE.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...DEE HYDROLOGY...KERN/PEARSON

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