Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 281113 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 613 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT STARTING ALONG THE NORTHWEST IOWA BORDER. COLD FRONT LAGGED THE CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LONG THIS COMPLEX HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TODAY ALTHOUGH BECOMING MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY...BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP MOVES FRONT INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 13Z THEN REACHES FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA BY 23Z. RAIN COULD JUMP PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY BEFORE THE CHANCE INCREASES AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE. HOT AND HUMID TODAY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS DURING THE PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCE IN AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN. GFS INDICATES MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS SOLUTION WITH EURO SHOWING A FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP COMES AROUND SUNDAY WHEN NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH GFS SHOWING STRONGER COOLING WITH ITS MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 SCATTERED TSRA CONTINUE MAINLY FROM NORTH OF KOMA TO NORTHWEST OF KLNK. ACTIVITY MAY HANG AROUND INTO MID MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP LATER AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE TSRA FOR LATE AFTERNOON SO WILL JUST HAVE A PROB GROUP FOR -SHRA. FORECASTS WILL NEED ADJUSTMENT LATER AS THINGS EVOLVE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT KOFK BY AROUND MID DAY AND THEN FOR KOMA AND KLNK BY EVENING.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...MILLER

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