Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 132323 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 623 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms expected tonight into Thursday, with a 5-15% chance for severe storms tonight between 8 PM - Midnight. - Cooler, dry weather expected going from the weekend into early next week. - Temperatures may warm back up toward the latter half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Short-Term Forecast (This afternoon - Thursday): Our surface low has developed over southwest KS and the Oklahoma Panhandle this afternoon, and we`re seeing the warm front lifting north through central Kansas. Expect convection to start to initiate across north central and northeastern Kansas around 5 to 7 PM this evening as the surface low moves into central Kansas. A line of west to east showers and storms should develop along the warm front and lift north into southeast Nebraska around 8 PM. Supercellular structures appear likely initially as we see 40+ kts of 0-6 kt bulk shear, and over 100 m2/s2 of SFC to 3 km SRH. The warm front to our south stalls right along the KS/NE border, with storms crossing north of the boundary as they move into SE Nebraska this evening. This should limit any surface-based severe storms making it very hard for tornadoes to develop. Biggest threats with these storms this evening as they move into southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa will be hail up to golf-ball size and damaging winds. As the line of storms continues its trek northward toward I-80 and the Omaha/Lincoln areas, we should see a weakening trend as we see a decreasing trend in elevated instability. This confines the greatest threat for severe weather south of a line from just south of Lincoln east to Clarinda, IA. There is still a marginal (5%) threat for severe storms as far north as Omaha, as the warm front could set up a bit farther north than we anticipate. Once the line of showers and storms shifts north, areas in southeast Nebraska may see a lull in shower activity, though a 20 to 30 percent chance for showers will continue overnight into Thursday morning. Areas to the north will see the band of showers and thunderstorms stall overnight along a line from Columbus to Tekamah. These areas will likely see our highest amounts of rainfall from this event, with amounts up to an inch or more possible. Thursday, we`ll see the winds shift to northerly during the early morning hours and ramp up through the day. This will keep temperatures cooler with highs in the 50s across most of our area. Shower chances continue across our area through the morning hours (30 to 80%), tapering off late in the day (10-40% during the afternoon and evening). Rain should clear out of the area after midnight Friday morning. Long-Term Forecast (Friday - Tuesday): Looking at the broader upper-level pattern going into the weekend, we see a low cut off and retreat westward over California setting up a rex-blocking pattern along the west coast. Over the Northern Plains, we will see shortwaves injecting periods of cooler weather down as far south as Nebraska and Iowa and southeast into the Ohio River Valley. Temperatures Friday and Saturday stay fairly mild as the first surge of colder air won`t arrive until Sunday-Monday. High temperatures these afternoons will peak in the 50s to low 60s. Dry air out of Canada streaming into the region will keep weather dry and allow for humidity during the afternoons to drop down into the 20 to 35 percent range by Saturday afternoon. Sunday we see an increase in northerly winds behind a dry cold front which will lead to highs in the 40s to low 50s. Despite the cooler temperatures, we still see humidity during the afternoon drop down into the 20 to 35 percent range, which could mean very high fire danger. Monday the winds relax a bit but temperatures remain cool with highs in the low-to-mid 50s. Tuesday starts the warming trend that will continue into the latter half of the week as the stubborn upper-level trough over the Great Lakes finally pushes off to the east and we see the upper-level ridge expand eastward into our area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
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Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Storms are still expected to impact the area tonight (around 04Z to 08Z), but latest trends are keeping TS farther south, so ended up removing mention from OFK. Expect MVFR conditions with any thunderstorms and some potential for IFR visibility with any stronger thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings will then persist with off and on showers at OMA and LNK into Thursday afternoon, though ceilings could stay a little higher at OFK. Rain looks to come to an end Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, expect relatively light northeast winds tonight (outside of thunderstorms) before gusts of 20 to 30 kts pick up Thursday morning.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...CA

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