Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 181655 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1155 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1155 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017 Main area of showers and storms has mostly moved out of the area and weakened, but there is still a small potential for some additional development this afternoon. Weak cold front should continue to slide a little farther to the southeast before it stalls. Made some minor changes to clouds, temperatures and winds for this afternoon. Storms could develop tonight as low level jet increases and lift develops north of the front.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017 Main issue to contend with is convection this morning then possible severe storms Wednesday aftn. 88D mosaic already showing narrow line of storms advancing eastward across cntrl SD/n-cntrl Neb along a surface trof associated with low pressure centered in cntrl SD. Sfc obs were showing a decent moisture feed fueling the convection with Tds in the lower/mid 50s. RAP13/HRRR indicated storms will hold together as they push into the CWA later this morning. As of now...it appears that the nrn CWA will see the brunt of accumulations with around a quarter inch possible before dissipating by early aftn. Next round of pcpn comes after midnight tonight with the approach of shortwave energy ejecting out of the cntrl Rockies. Increasing DPVA induces leeside low over ern CO early Wednesday morning with convection developing along attendant warm front extending across Neb into IA...but quickly dissipate by aftn with onset of CAP. Sfc low is progged to move into wrn IA by late aftn with a trailing cold front sweeping in. Environment quickly destabilizes with continuing influx of llvl moisture...MLCAPES 1200 J/kg. NAM/GFS/NMM are in quite good agreement storms will begin popping along/south of I-80 on nose of steep llvl lapse rates coincident to axis of llvl theta-E convergence. Regarding severe storm development...is reasonable to assume a few large hail producing storms will form over SE Neb/SW IA given steep mid lvl lapse rates atop moist bndry layer will be in place. However...appears that the environment will be more favorable to support widespread severe just east of the CWA where sfc-6km shear/ML SRH/instability will be most prevalent in addition to nose of llvl jets trajectory into srn IA. Dry and cooler conditions then late Wednesday night thru Thursday night. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017 GFS/CMC/ECM are in reasonable agreement a Pacific NW shortwave will strengthen as it digs toward the cntrl Plains and bring the next round of pcpn Friday aftn thru Saturday. Given the track of the system will be across KS/OK...will focus higher POPs generally over the srn CWA. Severe potential looks minimal at best.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017 Clouds have scattered out at KOFK and conditions should remain VFR there until Wednesday morning. MVFR ceilings possible at least temporarily for KOMA and KLNK this afternoon, but then mainly VFR from late afternoon into the evening. Chance of SHRA and TSRA will increase tonight, with MVFR conditions possible, mainly after 05z. MVFR or lower conditions should become dominant at KLNK and KOMA after 09z.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...Miller SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...Miller

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