Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KOAX 131728 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1228 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014 CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS MORNING...PCPN AMOUNTS AND PCPN TYPE FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT ARE MAIN FCST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM. THREE MAIN JETSTREAKS WERE NOTED ON 300 MB ANALYSIS LAST EVENING. ONE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA...ONE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND A THIRD JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE. TWO AREAS OF 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE NOTED AT 500 MB. ONE WAS IN SOUTHERN IDAHO...AROUND AN 80 METER MAX...AND ANOTHER OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO... WITH MAX AROUND 50 METERS. AT 700 MB...A MODEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS NOTED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS BACK TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 850 MB ANALYSIS SHOWED AN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH VALUES RANGING FROM -8 C AT KGGW TO 24 AT KDDC. A FAIRLY NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE AT 850 MB EXTENDED FROM TEXAS UP INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF PCPN AS LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES THIS MORNING AND LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES. PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND AN INCH OR MORE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS MORNING...THEN THESE WILL SLOWLY DROP AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE AND THE AIRMASS COOLS. EXPECT SOME BANDING OF PCPN AS A COUPLE OF AREAS OF ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS ARE EXPECTED. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE BY 7 PM MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SEWARD TO FREMONT AND ONAWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGHT ABOUT A WIND ADVISORY BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARED MARGINAL AND WILL PASS THINKING ON TO NEXT SHIFT. THEY CAN ISSUE ONE IF NEEDED. AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...SNOW SHOULD SPREAD FARTHER TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH INTO THE OMAHA/COUNCIL BLUFFS METRO...BUT HIGHS AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. LIFT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT...BUT KEPT PCPN CHANCES GOING UNTIL AROUND 12Z IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FCST AREA. MONDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND CONTINUED NORTH WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE 10-15 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014 A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST BY WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF A FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AND PCPN DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE A BIT AFTER THAT AND CONFIDENCE DROPS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PCPN FRIDAY OR SATURDAY BUT THOUGHT TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. THURSDAY WILL BE COOL AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S...MAINLY 50S FRIDAY AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BY SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED OVER SERN NEBR AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED SE OF KLNK/KOMA BY 2 OR 3 PM CDT. OTHERWISE STRONG NNE SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING. COLDER AIR SPREADING SE INTO ERN NEBRASKA WILL LIKELY TURN RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO NERN NEBR...INCLUDING KOFK...WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW LIKELY LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. DUE TO ONGOING INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD ALSO BE SLEET MIXED IN WITH SOME OF THE PRECIP THROUGH MID AFTN AS WELL. COLDER AIR SHOULD ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KOMA AND KLNK THIS EVENING...IF NOT A PERIOD OF JUST SNOW...BEFORE PRECIP ENDS AT THOSE 2 SITES LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT. IN GENERAL IFR OR NEAR IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PRECIP BEFORE CIGS IMPROVE A FEW HOURS AFTER PRECIP ENDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ033-034-044-045- 051>053-065>067-078-088-089. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ016-017-030>032- 042-043-050. IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...CHERMOK

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.