Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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783 FXUS63 KOAX 011142 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 642 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 GRADUALLY ENDING OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS LATER TODAY...A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RAIN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WAS DRIFTING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND LOW CENTER AND DEFORMATION ZONE ACTIVITY WAS LEADING TO CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING BEFORE LOW BEGINS FILL AS IT TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS IOWA. DECREASING FORCING AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SUGGESTS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN WILL LIKEWISE DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO BE SEEN IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TODAY. A SECONDARY MID LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WILL ALSO TRANSLATE EAST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MOVING ACROSS KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA REGION AT MID DAY MONDAY. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA. THEN ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT. BY THIS TIME...MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THUS BESIDES FOR ALL AREAS TODAY...AND IN OUR SOUTH MONDAY...WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. WITH THE TENDENCY TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND A POTENTIAL GLIMPSE OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 50S ALL AREAS. MORE SUNSHINE IN MUCH OF OUR AREA MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 60S LOOK ON TRACK. THEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A REBOUND IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ON TUESDAY SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES APPROACH 70. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL FOCUSING IN ON AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SETTING UP THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH UPPER LOWS GRADUALLY FORMING OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. IN THE MIDDLE...RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OUR AREA BY SATURDAY. THIS OVERALL PATTERN SOLIDLY POINTS TO DRY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA THROUGH THE WEEK. FINER DETAILS IN GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE TRYING TO DRIFT THROUGH RIDGE AXIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...TRIGGERING A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HERE. HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING ANYTHING OF CONSEQUENCE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE BACKGROUND OMEGA PATTERN...BUT CERTAINLY CAN NOT RULE IT OUT. SO WILL MAINTAIN OUR SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS THEN. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GAIN A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK AND AVERAGE THE 70S FOR THE MOST PART. && .AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 12Z MONDAY) ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 EXPECT TO SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BEGINS TO WORK EAST AND WEAKEN. UNTIL THEN IFR TO MVFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR ALL THREE SITES. VSBY HAS BEEN SURPRISINGLY GOOD SINCE 06Z AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...FOBERT

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