Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 170536 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1136 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017 Surface gradient over the central plains region will continue to tighten into tonight as high pressure moves off toward the Ohio Valley and a cold front approaches from the northern plains. Southerly winds will bring increasing moisture and warmer temperatures into the area tonight into Friday in advance of the cold front. Some light rain or drizzle may reach parts of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa by daybreak on Friday then shift east of the area by early afternoon as the cold front moves into the southeast portion of the forecast area. A better chance of rain or a rain snow mix is expected Friday night as the area comes under stronger forcing aloft associated with a jet max moving across Kansas and ahead of an upper trough over the northern plains. Temperatures are expected to fall into the lower 30s over northern parts of the area late Friday night bringing some chance of light snow or a rain snow mix to parts of northeast Nebraska into early Saturday morning before ending. Any snow that does fall is expected to result in only minor accumulations, generally less than an inch, and melt quickly during the day as temperatures climb into the lower 40s with skies clearing by afternoon. Clear skies and light winds Saturday night will allow temperatures to fall into the lower and mid 20s, but another period of warming returns on Sunday as the mean trough moves quickly east and flow becomes more zonal over the plains region. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017 Fast upper flow punctuated by intermittent short waves continues in the extended period with strongly split flow developing by Tuesday. This puts the area between the cold northern stream flow from the northern plains into Great Lakes region and the moist southern stream across the southern plains and lower Mississippi Valley. This results in dry weather for the area leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday with normal to above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1131 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017 Conditions are forecast to deteriorate to IFR at all eastern Nebraska TAF sites between 08Z and 12Z as low level moisture streams north. Cigs below FL008 are expected, with areas of fog and drizzle pushing vsbys to 2SM at times through 16Z. Some improvement to MVFR conditions are forecast by 18Z, then to VFR during the afternoon when a cold front turns winds to the northwest. Lowering of cigs is possible toward the end of the TAF period as an area of rain moves in from the west, but this mostly likely will occur just after this TAF period.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fobert LONG TERM...Fobert AVIATION...Dergan

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