Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 261132 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 632 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...(today through Thursday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016 Models showing relatively good agreement pushing brunt of pcpn activity now to Wednesday/Wednesday evening time frame...thus major POP adjustments will be needed. At any rate...low level moisture advection into the central plains continues through tonight with TSRA development initially over SD where low level geostrophic wind max meets up with the srn extent of 850mb frontogenetic zone. NAM12 and GFS20 are similar showing activity approaching the nrn CWA sometime around midnight. Forcing along mid lyr ageostrophic axis is not as strong as previous runs were showing...so confidence is lower for seeing hvy rainfall accumulations over nern neb overnight. As mentioned...models are much slower bringing forcing/brunt of pcpn thru the rest of the CWA until Wednesday night/Thursday morning when sfc high begins building to the south. Will probably seeing lingering activity Wednesday afternoon over the southern CWA. For Thursday night...am inclined to just go with token POPS on the outer periphery of the CWA given model QPF fields are all over the place. Otherwise...will continue near normal highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016 Large scale flow looking a bit more active during the extended periods with several minor impulses passing through the region...of which any one of them could aid in kicking off convection over the CWA. Token POPS already in place for next weekend still look reasonable...so no changes to POPS anticipated. GFS and ECM are advertising rebounding temps early next week with highs pushing into the low 90s next Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016 Patchy morning fog could reduce vsbys to MVFR through about 14Z at all TAF sites. Then expect clear skies and south to southeast winds under 10kt through the afternoon. An are of thunderstorms is forecast to develop in the High Plains of South Dakota and move toward eastern Nebraska after 06Z. If these hold together, KOFK could see thunderstorms before 12Z, however have left out of this TAF cycle as confidence of occurrence is still low. && .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...Dergan

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