Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 202002 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 302 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM. MILD AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER HGTS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. DID TRIM BACK LOWS TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW YET MINIMAL OR EVEN NERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN TOWARD LOWER MO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH A BIT BREEZIER TUESDAY...READINGS REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS NEAR PERSISTENCE...POSSIBLY A DEG OR TWO COOLER EAST DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER SERLY FLOW OFF OF A RETREATING SFC HIGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED ON THIS MORNING U.A. FROM SRN MO/OK AREA SOUTHWARD...H85 DWPTS AT OR > 10 DEG C AND SFC DWPTS IN UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S F...WILL BE RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH ENTERING W COAST MIDDAY TODAY PROGRESSES EWD. BESIDES LIKELY PROVIDING LOW CLOUDS TO CNTRL AND WRN ZONES BY WED MORNING...H85 THETA E ADVECTION IS QUITE STRONG AND COULD GENERATE ISOLD TSTMS LATE TUE NIGHT AS WELL. INTRODUCED SLGT CHANCE WCNTRL/NWRN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. JUST HOW QUICKLY TROUGH MOVES ACROSS PLAINS STILL SLIGHTLY IN DOUBT WITH CANADIAN LAGGING OTHER MODELS. GENERALLY LEANED TOWARD MAJORITY...NAM/GFS AND ECMWF...ALTHOUGH WITH ENERGY LIFTING/REFORMING NEAR U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER KEPT POPS WEST OF ECENTRAL NEBR/MOST OF WRN IA...INCLUDING OMAHA METRO YET DURING THE DAY WED. WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED...ISOLD TSTM MENTION WAS MAINTAINED...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE ACTIVITY A BIT HIGHER THAN ISOLD IF TRENDS PERSIST. HOWEVER...UPPED MOST POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WED NGT. WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PRECIP AS WELL...PREV MAX TEMP FORECAST LOOKED GOOD WED...FALLING MOSTLY BETWEEN COOLER NAM AND WARMER MAV. HOWEVER...AIRMASS IS FAIRLY MILD AND COULD SEE THE NEED TO ADJUST UPWARD IF/WHEN IT BECOMES APPARENT SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE AFTN SUNSHINE. WITH NAM/GFS/ECMWF PROGRESSIVE WITH SRN PART OF TROUGH CROSSING FORECAST AREA...APPEARS BULK OF PRECIP COULD ALSO MOVE EAST OF MUCH OF THE FCST AREA BY THU MORNING. STARTED MAKING NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS...I.E. DROPPING POPS NW AND LOWERING THEM EAST. ALSO BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS AS COOL ADVECTION BEHIND TROUGH IS MINIMAL AND WARM ADVECTION ALREADY COMMENCES BY THU AFTN. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014 EXTENDED STARTS DRY AND MILD ALTHOUGH 12Z ECMWF SLIPS A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST WILL INCLUDE GENERALLY 70S FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LATEST ECMWF WOULD KNOCK NRN AREAS INTO UPPER 60S SAT. ALSO A CASE COULD BE MADE BY 12Z ECMWF/GFS FOR SOME MAX TEMPS REACHING 80 OR BETTER SUNDAY IF NEXT TROUGH CAN APPROACH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PROVIDE INCREASING SWRLY FLOW TO AREA. A DIVERGENCE WAS NOTED BY DAY 7 BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WHICH COULD LIKELY SPELL A DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST BY THAT TIME AND BEYOND. HOWEVER...THEY EITHER SUPPORTED POPS ACROSS ERN ZONES...THE FORMER...OR MAINLY DRY WITH THE LATTER. THUS THIS FORECAST WILL CONTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS IA ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS REFLECTING LAST EVENINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF.
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&& .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHERMOK LONG TERM...CHERMOK AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

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