Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 301744 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1144 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL DEAL WITH IMPACT OF SOUTHWEST SYSTEM COMING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS AS AREA SITS BETWEEN ADVANCING COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH AND EASTWARD TRACK OF THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LOOK TO BE THE MAIN AREA TO RECEIVE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP...MAINLY LIQUID...IN OUR AREA. INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT WITH GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MAINLY RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE TEMPS STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH WHERE DEEPER LAYER OF COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT. LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME DUE TO ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE NORTH. CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE SOUTH EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR SINKS DEEPER SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENT OF SNOWFALL IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHICH WILL PUSH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM EASTWARD. CURRENT MODELS MOVE FEATURE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND LIMITS TIME OF MAX SNOWFALL TO A SHORT PERIOD AROUND MIDNIGHT AS BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SNOWFALL IN 1-2 INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW LINGERS IN THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE COLDER AIR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOWCOVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY MONDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015 VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES UP AND DOWN AS ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WARM AND COLD ADVECTION MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AROUND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE. A STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE END OF THIS CYCLE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH MVFR CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHEAST BEFORE 12Z. PCPN SHOULD MOVE INTO KLNK FIRST AROUND 13-18Z....WITH KOMA FOLLWOING AROUND 16-18Z. PCPN TYPE THROUGH 18Z SHOULD MAINLY BE -RA. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...KERN

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