Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 281945 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM AS AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY POP UP DURING AFTERNOON HEATING NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ASSIGN POPS DUE TO LIMITED NATURE OF THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 SAME GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BY THE GFS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. GFS MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY BE OVERDONE AS ECMWF DRIER AND ALSO FASTER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE UPPER WAVE SO LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
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&& .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 ALTHOUGH HEATING DRIVEN CUMULUS OVER ERN NEBR SHOULD DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING...AN AREA OF A LITTLE THICKER LOW CLOUDS COULD PERSIST THROUGH AND POSSIBLY EVEN AFTER SUNSET NEAR AND EAST OF OMAHA. ALTHOUGH CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OVER FL030...A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTN AT ALL SITES AND THEN THIS EVENING NEAR/E OF OMAHA. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...CHERMOK

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