Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 161120 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 620 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED THE AREA TO RADIATE OUT WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTED...MAINLY IN AND AROUND THE RIVER VALLEYS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. TODAY SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...MILD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 6OS TO AROUND 70 AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A FEW MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT NORTH FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA AFTER 06Z/WED. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AIDED BY A SOUTHWESTERLY NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST ACROSS KANSAS BUT WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR ANYTHING THAT POSSIBLY DRIFTS NORTH. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALLOWING A CONTINUING WARMING TREND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LIKE TUESDAY NIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR AN 850MB WARM FRONT SO WILL COVER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ANYTHING DRIFTING INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014 BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING 20+C 850MB TEMPS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD APPROACH THE MID 80S WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S QUITE POSSIBLE. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO OUR CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT OFF BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT...LINGERING PCPN IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. COMPLICATING THIS SITUATION WILL BE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES FROM THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ODILE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS MOISTURE IN KANSAS...WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF HOWEVER DOES BRING THIS SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA JUST IN TIME TO INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN REGARDS TO BOTH TIMING AND POPS...ENDING PCPN BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH GRADUAL COOLING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPENING TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST DRAGS COOLER TEMPS DOWN WITH IT. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014 FOG...MAINLY AT KOMA...SHOULD LIFT OR DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING... WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THAT. EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDINESS LATER TODAY WITH BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET. SOME FOG COULD FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...MILLER

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