Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 121710 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1210 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 This mornings water vapor imagery showed a deep longwave trof over the Pac NW with strong moisture flow on the front side into the northern Plains. At the surface...a low pressure trof down along the northern/central high Plains. Models are in good agreement pcpn will develop along a stalled surface boundary which is progged to extend from central WI to western KS morning Friday. However...with brunt of mid layer QG forcing focused to the northeast through the day...bulk of rainfall is likely to fall over northern IA. Thus, will focus POPs over eastern portions of the CWA. With upper flow oriented SW-NE...models depict the boundary slightly meandering over the CWA through at least Friday night/Saturday afternoon, allowing for persistent forcing via mid layer ageostrophic ascent. Strong moisture advection in the meantime will equate to PWS around 1.5" or so pooling over the southern CWA. Both the NAM/GFS show axis of max omega over the southern CWA Saturday night. Thus potential for highest accumulations should generally be south of I- 80 with up to an inch possible by Sunday morning. In addition to this, the combination of deep layer shear along with strong instability would indicate the possibility for severe storm development late afternoon Saturday over the southern CWA. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 GFS/ECM are in agreement near zonal flow will prevail through the extended periods with dry conditions prevailing with near normal highs in the mid/upper 60s, and slightly above overnight lows in the mid 40s. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 An IFR stratus deck which has affected KOMA this morning is quickly dissipating with the onset of deeper boundary-layer mixing. Expect prevailing VFR conditions this afternoon with gusty south winds. Tonight, a cool front will advance southeast through the area with winds switching to north-northeast. Model guidance suggests that MVFR ceilings will become increasingly probable behind the front Friday morning from KOMA to KLNK. Some light showery precipitation is possible at that time as well.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...Mead

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