Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 032326 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 626 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE IN REGARDS TO TSTM POTENTIAL FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OUR AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. A FEW SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. THE STRONGEST WAVE WAS MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA AT 12Z THIS MORNING. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE ABOUT 120 METERS IN NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/NORTHERN ALBERTA AND THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A 100 PLUS KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING... ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT... BUT RIGHT NOW DID NOT FEEL IT WAS NEEDED IN THE GRIDS OR PUBLIC FORECAST. THE MID LEVELS WILL BE WARMING DURING THIS PERIOD. 700 MB TEMPERATURES LOCALLY THIS MORNING WERE 5-6 DEGREES C BUT WILL REACH 8-10 DEGREES C BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND HIGHS SATURDAY MAINLY 82 TO 86. FORCING AND MOISTURE AMOUNT ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF SUNDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY...WITH MID LEVELS CONTINUING TO WARM WHICH WILL TEND TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING TSTM CHANCES. TIMING OF STORMS IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...IS CONDITIONAL IF THE CAP BREAKS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHEST AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND TWO INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...SO KEPT POPS MOSTLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH WEAK NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. THAT FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST...AND THEN SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER BY TUESDAY. AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. HIGHS OF 75 TO 80 TUESDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY/ FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S TUESDAY SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT KOFK MAY PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...KERN

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