Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 110402 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1002 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016 .UPDATE...
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ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016 03Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE WARM FRONT WHICH HAD REACHED WRN AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON HAS SINCE SURGED SWWD AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH CNTRL NEB INTO N-CNTRL KS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO THE EAST. 2-3 MB/2-HR PRESSURE RISES AND MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED OVER ERN NEB AND WRN IA...AS IS A STEADY SWD MOVEMENT OF LOW CLOUDS. BASED ON 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE...WE HAVE RECENTLY UPDATED THE FORECAST IN FAR NERN NEB TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW A LITTLE EARLIER TOMORROW AFTERNOON(THU). OTHERWISE...NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WERE MADE.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016 A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST OF THE THESE WAS CURRENTLY SEEN IN NRN BC AND WILL DIVE SEWD TMRW ALNG THE STG THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH STATIC STABILITY IS FAIRLY HIGH MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD LEAD TO AN AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE AND A WEAK FRONTAL CIRCULATION DVLPS WITH SOME -SN BY AFTN OVER THE N STREAKING SEWD INTO WRN IA ON THU EVNG WITH A HALF INCH OR SO ACCUM. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE MID MO RVR VALLEY FRI NIGHT/SAT MRNG WITH BELOW NORMAL TMPS. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVES IN FOR SAT AND COULD SPREAD MORE LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY THE NRN CWA DURING THE DAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016 PREFER THE EC/GEM TO START THIS PERIOD AS THE GFS APPEARS OVER- DONE WITH FORCING/QFP FOR SUN WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR N/E. AFTER SUN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO NORTHWEST/WEST AND WE SHOULD SEE WARMING TMPS INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIFFER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ON HOW WARM AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CLIMO WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016 EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS CURRENT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING. SOME VSBY RESTRICTION POSSIBLE WITH FOG LATER TONIGHT...BUT STILL LIKELY 3 MILES OR HIGHER. CEILINGS MAY RISE A BIT LATE THURSDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE INCREASING THOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR KOFK AND KOMA. DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF SNOW AT THIS TIME. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MEAD SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD AVIATION...MILLER

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