Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 030401 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1101 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 MAY SEE SOME A SPOTTY SHOWER TRY TO POP UP NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 40KTS OVERNIGHT...AND ADDED A FEW MORE MID CLOUDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 WARM AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNDER DEVELOPING TROUGH WEST/RIDGE EAST PATTERN. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. WESTERN UPPER LOW WAS INDUCING 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 80M IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST..WHILE A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSED THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW...WITH THE NEAREST ONE FROM WESTERN WI TO CENTRAL IA AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM NEAR THE UT/AZ/NV BORDER. 110-KT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WAS COMING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. MOISTURE AT 850MB WAS WIDESPREAD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD...WITH A 30-35KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THROUGH THE MID-MO RIVER VALLEY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS STARTING TOMROROW NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...BELIEVE STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND LACK OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS AT BAY...DESPITE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM CO TOWARD EASTERN SD...AND HAVE MAINTAINED POPS IN NORTHEAST NEB. SHOULD BE A BREAK AFTER THAT WAVE...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS THREATENING THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW STARTS TO SLIDE EAST AND NEXT POSSIBLE WAVE EJECTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE AND CONTINUED WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN US INTO NORTHWESTERN ONT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING FOCUSED HIGH-CONFIDENCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING AND DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW SHOULD QUICKLY BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE PLAINS AND A RETURN OF AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. REINFORCING COLD PUSH...AND THE ARRIVAL OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES...LOOKS LIKELY TO ARRIVE AROUND TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD STABILIZE THE AIRMASS QUITE A BIT...WITH SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THAN STORMS BY TUESDAY EVENING...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL AND STAY BELOW NORMAL BEGINNING TUESDAY BEYOND THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY SHORT TERM...MAYES LONG TERM...MAYES AVIATION...KERN

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