Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 242043 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 243 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015 CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS WE DEAL WITH A CLIPPER MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT WILL BRING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS IN RESPONSE TO A CLIPPER WITH 50 TO 80 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS. WILL LIKELY SEE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EAST SOUTHEAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SURFACE LOW THEN MOVES TO NEAR I80 IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MIDDAY AND INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. ON THE NORTH/BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW...TEMPS ALOFT CRASH QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...WITH SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASING WINDS TO 20 TO 30 MPH THAT SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS ARE VERY COMPLEX WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION THEN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE MORNING RUSH SHOULD BE FINE FOR THE MAJOR METRO AREAS OF LINCOLN...OMAHA AND COUNCIL BLUFFS ALONG I80...BUT THE EVENING RUSH WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE CHALLENGING. THE SNOW DOES END FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD PROBABLY END ALTOGETHER BY MIDNIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE MIXED PRECIPITATION...HAVE CUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT...RANGING FROM NEARLY NOTHING IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE PRECIP PROBABLY STARTS AS RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...TO AROUND 3-4 INCHES FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. HAVE 1-2 FOR NORFOLK TO OMAHA...LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTHWEST AND HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTHEAST. WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A FEW COUNTIES THAT HAVE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE A FREEZING RAIN MENTION IN THE FORECAST...FEEL THAT THE SHORT DURATION IS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS TO NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY FURTHER WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND THEN SUB ZERO LOWS AGAIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD TEMPS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL AGAIN DROP TO 10 TO 20 BELOW BOTH WED NIGHT/THU MORNING AND THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015 THE NEXT BIG WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT TODAY BRINGING SNOW CHANCES BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY THEN ENDING SUNDAY. STILL ONE DAY TO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC ON SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT PLOWABLE SNOW SEEMS LIKELY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. MODELS TODAY ARE DEFINITELY SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER ON QPF THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. THEN ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COULD AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS ARE HAVING A SLIGHTLY MORE DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THIS FEATURE THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FORECAST DETAILS. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 12-15 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP AT KOFK AS EARLY AS 10Z WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ONSET OF SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LATE MORNING FOR KOMA AND KLNK AS THE LOW LEVELS ARE SLOW TO SATURATE. MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION...IF ANY AT ALL...THROUGH 18Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ015-034. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ055-056. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ069-080-091. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...KERN

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