Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 302331 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 631 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 WARM AND DRIER WEATHER CONTINUES...BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTING TO SHOW ITSELF IN EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OF UP TO 95KT WAS NOTED ACROSS NEB/IA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIRMASS HAS PERSISTED...WITH 850MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEB/EASTERN KS...AND 8C+ DEWPOINTS SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF AN AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST KS AND NORTHERN AR. RETURN FLOW WAS NOSING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...FEEDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST CO. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A FEW CU FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO WESTERN NEB...WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING/NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING/NIGHT. MODELS GENERALLY KEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY/TONIGHT IN CENTRAL/WESTERN NEB AND NOT IN THE CWA...SO HAVE KEPT POPS OUT FOR TONIGHT. INCREASING MID- LEVEL MOISTURE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEB. DESPITE JUST A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...MODELS DEVELOP FAIRLY ROBUST CONVECTION IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEB ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...GROWING UPSCALE INTO AN MCS THAT DIVES INTO KS IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND WITH SOME SHOWERS/STORMS REDEVELOPING ON ITS OUTFLOW IN SOUTHERN IA TO CENTRAL NEB THROUGH MORNING. HAVE REFLECTED SOME OF THIS TIMING/PLACEMENT IN REFINING POPS. AFTER A BIT OF RECOVERY TIME...ALMOST THE SAME PATTERN APPEARS...WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT...AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA...GROWS UPSCALE INTO AN MCS...THEN DROPS SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MO OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ON BOTH DAYS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH MOISTURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED. WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WOULD BE A NON-FACTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH SATURDAY...ASSUMING THAT THE FRIDAY NIGHT MCS CLEARS WITH AMPLE TIME FOR RECOVERY...BUT AM LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT RECOVERY AND WARMING ON SUNDAY GIVEN CONTINUED NORTHWEST UPPER- LEVLE FLOW BUT ALSO SOME RETURN FLOW SNEAKING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEXT WORK WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AS RIDGE SLIDES A BIT EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AND MODELS INDICATE A FEW WAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE. ANY OF THOSE WAVES COULD GENERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL AS REINFORCE SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES AS GRADIENT HANGS UP NEAR THE CWA. ALL IN ALL...HAVE SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIP MENTIONED...WITH TEMPERATURES LINGERING BELOW NORMAL...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY GIVEN DAY. && .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SWD THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVER THIS PERIOD...BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME ISO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP FRI AFTN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM...BUT MOST LIKELY WOULD AFFECT LNK NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD IF THESE DO OCCUR. CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MID AND HIGH LEVEL.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MAYES LONG TERM...MAYES AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

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