Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 092021 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 321 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014 MODELS IN RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE CONUS WILL BE NEAR ZONAL WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF RUSHES ACROSS CANADA. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THEN...PATTERN IS PROGGED TO BEGIN AMPLIFYING WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WRN CONUS BY SAT AFTN. MEANWHILE...GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST LATER TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND ALLOWS MOISTURE TO SLIDE UP ALONG THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. APPEARS THAT MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE THEN THRU THE FCST PD. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC WAS SHOWING CLUSTER OF TSTMS FROM S-CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL NEB MOVING SE WITHIN POCKET OF MID LYR ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND EXPAND INTO THE WRN CWA THEN EARLY THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY THE REST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAIN ISSUE IS PINNING DOWN PLACEMENT/TIMING THUNDER POPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...REASONABLE ASSUME ON THUR NIGHT/FRI NIGHT...LLVL JET AND FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/THETA-E CONVG WITHIN BNDRY LYR WILL HELP INDUCE NOCTURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY. AS FOR SVR TSTMS...NAM IS ADVERTISING POSSIBLE SVR DEVELOPMENT THUR NIGHT OVER N-CNTRL NEB WITH MUCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG AND ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR. ALL THIS IN PART TO LEESIDE SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT THERMAL BNDRY EXTENDING FROM ABOUT NERN CO TO NERN SD. GFS INSTABILITY/SHEAR AT THAT TIME THOUGH IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER. NEVERTHELESS...SITUATION BEARS WATCHING. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014 RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN CMC/ECM/GFS EARLY ON THAT AMPLIFICATION WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS. AT THIS POINT DETERMINISTIC ECM/GFS AS WELL AS ECMENS/CMCENS ALL INDICATE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL BECOME STAGNANT AND ALLOW A RATHER COOL AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF THE SEASON TO EXPAND SWD INTO THE REGION DAY 6 AND 7. EXPECT THEN A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL SEE WELL BELOW NORMAL AFTN TEMPS TUES AND WED. GOING POPS IN THE EXT PDS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONE AREA THAT MAY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS IS THE KLNK AREA SHRA AND TSRA IS POSSIBLE IN KLNK AFTER 00Z AND WOULD BE IN THE STRONGER CELLS. SMOKE PLUME FROM FIRES IN CANADA ARE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY IN NEBRASKA AND IOWA. ASIDE FROM SLIGHTLY HAZY SKY CONDITIONS...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON VISIBILITIES. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...SMITH

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