Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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385 FXUS63 KOAX 201735 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1235 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016 ...It`s Summer and We Have a HEAT WAVE... Forecast concerns over the next several days will be the Excessive Heat and humidity, heat headlines, monsoonal moisture and chances for thunderstorms. Will maintain Excessive Heat Warning today through Friday and future shifts can decide if the headline is extended. Our current forecasts has highest heat index values from 102 to 112 through Friday and 98 to 106 on Saturday. High temperatures will range from 91 to 101 each day through Saturday. Surface dewpoints should mostly range from the lower 70s to spots in the upper 70s and even some of our high spots could have 80 with soil/crops in full evapotranspiration mode. Sometimes people wonder while all the fuss. It has been a hot summer so far...in the top 12 for overall temperature for Omaha for heat. Heat waves can be deadly, however heat related deaths are preventable. It helps to stay hydrated...and limit strenuous outdoor activities and you can plan ahead. Similar to Monday and Tuesday...there is always a degree of uncertainty with convective activity...outflows and cloudiness can always affect the high temperatures. Typically when a large area of high pressure is over the area, the heat will shut down the local thunderstorm activity. The area of the h5 high is centered over Kansas and Oklahoma and water vapor satellite imagery continues to show a fetch of mid level monsoonal moisture into the Plains. This moisture plume does not push south of the forecast area until Sunday...thus the prolonged period of heat and humidity will also bring some areas thunderstorm chances. Thunderstorms developed overnight and the HRRR/RAP/NAM show these should last into this morning and possibly early this afternoon for parts of northeast Nebraska. Increasing south winds and very warm temperatures are still on track for today for the rest of the area. Isolated thunderstorms may develop Thursday in northeast Nebraska with scattered thunderstorms spreading eastward from western Nebraska Thursday ahead of a boundary that moves into northeast Nebraska. Thunderstorm chances linger into Friday and this could hold temperatures down. Forecast soundings show a lot of elevated instability some strong to severe storms are possible. Thursday night and Friday have inverted v shapes supportive of wind damage. The ridge builds back with the front lifting north Friday afternoon. Thunderstorm chances increase Friday night with the 40kt jet across Kansas nosing into the forecast area. Still hot for Saturday ahead of the approaching cold front. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016 A stronger shortwave in the Northern Plains pushes southward Saturday night with scattered thunderstorms and eventually is enough to scour out the deep moisture. This is shortlived as the moisture returns for Monday and Tuesday and a boundary will be in the area. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016 VFR conditions through the period. Southerly winds at 14 to 24 knots, with gusts diminishing by 23-01z. Non convective LLWS develops 05-06z...then diminishes by 14-15z.
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&& .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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NE...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. IA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for IAZ043-055-056- 069-079-080-090-091.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...Zapotocny LONG TERM...Zapotocny AVIATION...DeWald

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