Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 271727 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1227 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA. BASED ON HRRR/RAP MODEL GUIDANCE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...ON THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME...AND TWEAKED FOR TIME OF DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER DUE TO A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN TODAY. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. MONDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014 THE NEXT TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WEST COAST...MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT DOESN`T MOVE IN UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL HAVE POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES...AND THEN LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE NOW FLIPPING WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER MOVING THE PRECIP OUT...WITH THE GFS HOLDING ONTO PRECIP WELL INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING PRECIP OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST. COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY. WENT DRY ON FRIDAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PESKY UPPER LOW WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AFTER AFTER 12Z. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES AT KOFK AND KLNK. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE HAVE ONLY ADDED VCSH AT THOSE TWO TAF SITES FOR NOW. SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 18-24KT RANGE. WINDS WILL WILL REMAIN SOUTH SOUTHEAST BUT WILL DROP OFF UNDER 10KTS AFTER 00Z.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...MEYER

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