Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 180815 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 315 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(today through Saturday) Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016 Main forecast concern in the short term will be timing of cold front on Friday. At 07z the cold front was just starting to enter the northern plains region with a stronger push southward across eastern Montana. Low pressure was located over northwest South Dakota. A few isolated thunderstorms had also developed over south central Nebraska and north central Kansas in pocket of elevated instability indicated by models. May include a broad area of slight PoPs for this morning to cover activity currently developing in western portion of the area. Another hot and humid day is expected across the forecast area in advance of the cold font. Models show similar timing in bringing the front into southeast South Dakota and northwest Nebraska by 00Z. After that, at least for tonight, the front slows its southward progression into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa as it becomes oriented parallel to the upper flow with a better push south into western Nebraska as initial piece of short wave energy drops into the region ahead of the main trough. Will go dry across the area after mid morning although an isolated pop-up storm not out of the question. PoPs increase tonight starting in northern parts of the area then spread south with the front on Friday into Friday night. The front is currently forecast to reach the southeast corner of the area by late Friday afternoon with potential for severe storms in most of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Heavy rain is also likely with PW values of 2.00 inches or better and deep saturated layer indicated on forecast soundings for Friday evening. System is expected to move off late Friday night as progressive upper trough sweeps through the region. Dry and cooler conditions follows the front for Saturday. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016 Cool and dry conditions continue through the weekend as high pressure moves across the region. Warmer temperatures return by early next week as the high noves off to the east and ridging redevelops over the central U.S. in advance of another strong trough over western Canada. The strong southerly flow and short wave troughs associated with the western Canada system will bring another chance of storms to the area by Tuesday and continue into Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2016 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Southwesterly surface winds will increase Thursday afternoon and gust to around 20 kts by 20Z. && .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fobert LONG TERM...Fobert AVIATION...Kern

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