Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 301708 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1208 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 THE CONTINUATION OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ENDING PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY POINTS OF THIS FORECAST. MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE WAS IMPLIED ON SATELLITE LOOPS ARCING AROUND THE LOW FROM ARKANSAS INTO MISSOURI THEN NORTHWEST AND WEST ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA...COINCIDENT WITH BROAD DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW. MID LEVEL DRYING WAS NOTED FROM KANSAS SOUTH...WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA LATER THIS MORNING...DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND COVERAGE THERE. LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHEAST THEN EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA OVERNIGHT. TROWAL/DEFORMATION REGION IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST QUADRANTS OF THE LOW WILL CONTAIN WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THAT AREA ROTATING NORTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY TODAY AS LOW MOVES EAST...THEN SINK BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AS LOW PULLS EAST THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT. OUR CURRENT FORECAST ADVERTISES THIS TREND NICELY...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED. ONE ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DECREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING THE DAY AS DRY SLOT REGION INVADES THOSE AREAS. WILL STILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON UNDER COOLING ALOFT AS LOW APPROACHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO NEAR 0.75 INCH TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING BELOW A HALF INCH ON SUNDAY. SO EXPECT RAIN AMOUNTS TO GENERALLY TOP OUT AROUND AN INCH IN MANY SPOTS OVER OUR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...BUT SOME LOCAL AREAS COULD CERTAINLY SEE MORE. LOW THEN WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AS IT IS ENVELOPED INTO BROADER TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES...TAKING LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHAT IS LEFT BEHIND FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK IS GENERALLY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE PLAINS ATTENDANT TO GREAT LAKES TROUGH. SOME MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THAT FLOW WHICH COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM MORNING READINGS TODAY GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA COULD SNEAK OUT A FEW MORE DEGREES WHERE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL NOT BE AS GREAT. SAME SMALL DIURNAL CHANGE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WITH A LITTLE BETTER WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S SUNDAY WHEN SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND LOSS OF PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE INSOLATION. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE 60S WITH LOTS MORE SUNSHINE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 MAINLY DRY AND WARMER IS IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK. OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IS STILL ADVERTISED BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK. MOST OF OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER A NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGE BETWEEN UPPER LOWS FIRMLY TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER FROM TIME TO TIME WITH WEAK IMPULSES RIDING THROUGH THE AREA...BUT CHANCES ARE FAR TOO SLIM TO MENTION WITH ANY CONVICTION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE 70S EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND COULD GET EVEN WARMER LATE IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE BULK OF THE STEADIER RAIN IS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES AND DRIZZLE OR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE...5 TO 15KTS AT KOMA AND KLNK AND 10 TO 20KTS AT KOFK. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AT KLNK THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL WILL WORK INTO TO ALL THE TAF SITES AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20KTS AND GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...DERGAN AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

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