Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 230944 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 344 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015 SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL MAINLY BE TEMPERATURES AND IF WE WILL SEE ANY SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER REMAINS ON THE QUIET SIDE AS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT TERM WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE U.S. WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO WARMING AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST AND THE HRRR/RAP ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS. THE SHORTWAVE TROF DRAGGING THROUGH THE FRONT...IS TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO/QUEBEC. PER THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAIC/METARS...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT 09Z...THE WIND SHIFT WAS NEAR BISMARCK ND. JUST A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE NEAR FARGO. TODAY...THE WINDSHIFT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY. WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE WIND SHIFT WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS MORNING AND THE OMA/CBF/LNK AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS DO NOT LOOK TOO STRONG...MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT. CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SECOND...STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM MINNESOTA INTO IOWA AND THEN OHIO WITH A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE SECOND WAVE ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE 150KT JET AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND COULD RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN. THE NAM IS THE DRIEST...GFS HAS MAINLY SPRINKLES AND THE EC/GEM SHOW SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE (0.05 OR LESS). ADDED SPRINKLE MENTION AND LEFT ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN MENTION IN. THE FORECAST AREA IS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION...SO ANY AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT. H9 WINDS OF 40 TO 45KTS WILL RESULT IN BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 50S. LOWERED HIGHS TO A RANGE OF MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR SUNDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTH WINDS AND MAY HAVE TO LOWER FURTHER. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015 WE START OUT THE EXTENDED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN TUESDAY. A WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S/50S CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY...JUST NOT AS MILD BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FRIDAY AND BEYOND WITH THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. THE MORE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES ARE FARTHER NORTH FOR NOW. THIS IS STILL A LONG WAYS OUT...AND TIMING/LOCATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015 STILL LOOK F0R VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT THEN MID CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS WELL ON FRIDAY. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...MILLER

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