Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 141110 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 610 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 The primary forecast concerns in this period are the chance for showers and thunderstorms today into the evening, winds this evening and tonight, then potential for frost - mainly for Sunday night. Generally strong upper level winds continue punching south across western Canada into the Pacific Northwest, and there were also winds in excess of 100 knots from UT/CO/WY northeast into Ontario Canada. We will get some lift from the right entrance region of the second jetstreak today, and there is also some fairly strong mid level frontogenesis. Trough at 500 mb last evening stretched from western MT into eastern OR. 700 mb thermal gradient was moderately strong from the central Rockies to the western Great Lakes. 850 mb moisture had increased somewhat with dewpoints in the teens C from TX into eastern KS, much of MO and southeast IA. Water vapor loop early this morning showed that the 500 mb trough mentioned earlier had progressed a little to the east and a vort max was moving toward western WY. Radar looped indicated that showers and thunderstorms developed fairly fast to our west and were spreading into the area. These should be most widespread over the southern half of the forecast area into mid morning. Recent runs of the available convection allowing models (CAMs) have not done a great job, but in general suggest this activity will mostly move east of the area by around mid morning. Question then becomes will it just be cloudy with some drizzle, or will there still be some areas of light rain/rain showers around the area. Forecast soundings indicate some elevated instability still in place, with parcels originating around 6000 ft AGL. The 00z runs of the NAM and GFS were also not quite as aggressive with precipitation after about mid morning for parts of the area (compared to yesterday) but were still wetter than most of the CAMs. So, did make some adjustments to POPs, but more adjustment is likely to be needed through the day. Raised highs just slightly for some areas, mainly south of the Platte River. Precipitation chances will generally be on the downturn this evening, but some wrap around moisture could keep some showers going in our northern zones (associated with a deformation zone). Winds will turn to the west this afternoon as the main surface low tracks toward south central IA. Pressure gradient also tightens and winds will increase. Did not go with a wind advisory at this point for tonight, but it may be needed at some point. Otherwise look for lows tonight to drop into the mid or upper 30s in northeast NE and mainly upper 30s to mid 40s elsewhere in the local area. Sunday will be sunny but on the cool side with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. That sets us up for a cool night Sunday night. No headlines at this point, but some of the area that did not see a freeze earlier in the week may have frost. More on that in later forecasts. Southerly winds Monday should help boost highs back to the upper 60s and lower 70s. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Most of the upcoming week looks dry, with seasonable temperatures. Look for highs mainly in the 70s. Lows should be in the 40s Monday night but then mid 40s to mid 50s the rest of the week. A mid level trough will be digging over the western United States by Friday, which could set us up for rain chances again by Saturday night or Sunday of next weekend. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Mainly IFR conditions are expected for KOFK and KLNK into the mid afternoon, with improving conditions after that. It will likely remain IFR at KOMA much of the daylight hours with potential for -SHRA or -DZ. Highest chances for TSRA will be south of KOMA and KLNK but will include some mention of thunder at least early this morning. Conditions will improve as a strong cold front moves in with gusty northwest winds late this afternoon and evening.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Miller LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...Miller

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