Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 242120 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 320 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY... THEN SNOW CHANCES MAINLY FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT PCPN TO THE AREA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT CONTINUED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUED TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD AS SHOWN BY RECENT METAR OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPS. HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION AGREE THAT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...FAIRLY THICK HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO STAY FAIRLY HIGH WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS AT LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER AND MID 20S. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WAS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TODAY (12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 12Z AT 500 MB WERE AS HIGH AS 160 METERS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST) WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY. MOST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER UTAH WITHIN THE TROUGH. LOCALLY...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA THURSDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOME PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. LARGE SCALE FORCING HOWEVER IS BETTER/STRONGER FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING (AS SHOWN BY MID/UPPER LEVEL LAYER AVERAGE Q VECTORS...700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND MID LEVEL OMEGA VALUES. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW LOOK LIKE THEY COULD REACH THE 0.5 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014 FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE STARTS TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY. PATTERN TURNS STRONGLY MERIDIONAL AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 130-140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE UP INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY. THIS FORCES TROUGH TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE RIDGE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE FORCED SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA INTO MID AMERICA FOR THE EARLY AND MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TRANSITION...MAINLY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THOSE PERIODS SEEMS TO AGAIN BE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. GAVE THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL THE MOST WEIGHT IN REGARDS TO PCPN POTENTIAL AND AMOUNTS (POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR THE AREA). NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LIGHT SNOW EVENT FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA (AS SHOWN BY 12Z ECMWF). SIGNALS ARE HIGH ENOUGH HOWEVER TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THOSE AREAS. WE WILL WATCH MODEL TRENDS AND CAN ADJUST LATER IF NEEDED. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS NORTH/20S SOUTH...THEN HIGHS IN THE TEENS ARE LIKELY ALL AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE COLD AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS...BUT SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014 TREND LAST SEVERAL HOURS PER SATL PIX SHOWING A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF LOW LEVEL CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST OVER CNTRL NEB WITH THE BACK EDGE OF CLEARING SITUATED FROM ABOUT KONL TO KHJH. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM MVFR/IFR TO VFR AT KOFK AND KLNK SOMETIME BTWN 22Z-24Z THIS AFTN...AND AROUND 02Z THIS EVENING AT KOMA. NO AVN CONCERNS THEREAFTER WITH VFR PREVAILING REST OF THE FCST PD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...DEE

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