Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 210432 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1132 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Transitionary period as upper ridge over the western CONUS flattens and strong near zonal flow develops across the northern plains and upper Midwest. Combination of embedded impulses in the upper flow and quasi stationary surface boundary that hangs up across the area Wednesday into Thursday will result in periodic convection during that time, primarily during the late afternoon and overnight. Strong upper trough digs into the upper Midwest late Thursday night into Friday driving surface boundary and associated precip south of the area with cooler temperatures coming in behind the trough. Some scattered convection is possible late tonight into early Wednesday morning as warm advection zone lifts across the area. Another chance of storms will develop Wednesday afternoon and evening as a surface trough approaches eastern Nebraska then stalls Wednesday night. The stalled boundary begins to push south Thursday afternoon and Thursday night as the upper trough drops into the northern plains. Instability will increase along the boundary from northeast into south central Nebraska Wednesday afternoon with sufficient shear for the potential of some severe thunderstorms into the evening. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Broad upper trough then becomes the dominant feature in the extended period with cooler temperatures and some chance of periodic showers and thunderstorms for the area in the northwest flow. Upper ridge over the western CONUS begins to shift east into the plains on Tuesday with warmer temperatures starting to work back into the area. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 VFR conditions are likely through the TAF cycle, with clear to scattered cirrus skies and unrestricted visibility. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the late afternoon to early evening, especially affecting KOFK. Have included a VCSH mention for now to hint at potential. Should a shower/storm happen to pass directly over the site, it could temporarily restrict visibility or lower ceilings. Guidance has become inconsistent and sporadic regarding low-level wind shear potential both tonight and Wednesday evening, so for now, have left out mention. Light winds overnight will increase to around 10-15kt out of the south at all sites by late morning to midday.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fobert LONG TERM...Fobert AVIATION...Mayes

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