Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 110855 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 255 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 255 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 ...Windy Today... An intense vorticity maximum over ND as of 07z will translate through the mid-MO Valley today and into the mid-MS/lower-OH Valleys by this evening. On it`s immediate heels, mid to upper- level jet streaks and a related secondary vorticity lobe will move from the western Dakotas into the central Plains. In the low levels, the former upper-air disturbance mentioned above will be linked to a cold front which will push through the area this morning with strong northwest winds and falling temperatures expected by afternoon. Late morning/early afternoon highs ranging from around 40 north to upper 40s south can be expected before the cold advection begins to overwhelm diurnal heating. Clouds will be on the increase as the stronger forcing for ascent overspreads the region with some light rain or sprinkles possible from late this morning into afternoon. Tonight, a surface high will build south through the High Plains with winds rapidly diminishing. Lingering cloudiness should limit the potential for strong radiational cooling with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. Tuesday, pronounced low-level warm advection could be offset to some extent by cloudiness arising from that forcing mechanism with highs ranging from the mid to upper 40s west to upper 30s to lower 40s east. Wednesday, another short-wave trough is forecast to track southeast through the region along with an associated cold front. Outside of some increase in mid-level clouds, model soundings indicate that the environment will remain relatively dry and the potential for measurable precipitation appears low. Winds will become strong again from the northwest behind the front with highs ranging from the mid 40s north to mid 50s south. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 255 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 Latest medium-range guidance indicates that another short-wave trough will track south through the mid-MO Valley on Thursday in tandem with a surface cold front. Similar to previous systems, moisture will remain limited, so precipitation potential currently appears low. Temperatures will be cooler than previous days with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s forecast. By Friday into the weekend, the persistent ridge over western North America will temporarily dampen and retrograde west as a strong polar jet develops onto the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coasts. The ridge-breakdown-process will be initiated by a short-wave trough which is forecast to move inland across the Pacific Northwest on Friday prior to subsequently translating into the Great Plains Saturday and/or Sunday. The models handle this system differently (namely if and how it phases with a higher-latitude disturbance), leading to uncertainty in timing and impacts on our weather. For now, we will maintain a predominantly dry forecast with continued above-normal temperatures.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1110 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017 Winds will increase a bit from the west late tonight, then increase dramatically Monday morning. A clipper type low pressure system will track across MN and then toward the IA/IL border by 18Z. Northwest winds will become gusty, with some gusts to over 30 knots. MVFR ceilings should move in mid to late morning and probably last into the evening. Spotty light rain or light snow showers possible Monday afternoon, mainly at KOFK and KOMA. Only included a mention of light pcpn at KOFK for now. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NE...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078- 088>093. IA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...Mead LONG TERM...Mead AVIATION...Miller

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