Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 181910 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 210 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014 EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED RIDGE AXIS EXTNDD FM SRN MN INTO CNTRL KS. THIS WILL CONT TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW GETTING GOING OVER THE MID MO RVR VALLEY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER NIGHT THAN LAST OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NE NEB. THE NEXT SHRTWV TROF OF INTEREST IS OVER BC THIS AFTN AND THIS WILL TRACK EWD TONIGHT AND THEN DIVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK FRNT TO MOV THROUGH THE CWA ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON MRNG. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY SFC WINDS TURN SW AND WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING AND HIGHS AROUND OR INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH IT OTHER THAN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO AND DEEPENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY A SHARP RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE QUIET FALL WEATHER CONTINUING. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014 THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE A TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE WESTERN US ON TUE AND INTO THE PLAINS ON WED. IT STILL APPEARS THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL US WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE FORCING INDICATED IN MOST MODELS QPF OUTPUT APPEARS OVERDONE IN BOTH THE GFS/EC. NEVERTHELESS WITH THE SHEAR AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON WED AND WED NIGHT SOME CHC POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD APPEAR TO BE NEAR CLIMO.
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&& .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014 MVFR CLOUD DECK IS BEGINNING TO BREAK...WITH INTERMITTENT COVERAGE EXPECTED AT KOMA/KOFK FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO UNTIL CLOUDS SCATTER. CLEAR SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10KT THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 12-14KT MID TO LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...MAYES

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