Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KOAX 030453 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1153 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED THE DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE CNTRL US. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY WAS DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF OK/TX WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SD/WRN NEB. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THIS WAVE WAS NOW ROTATING THROUGH NORTHEAST NEB. THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER SRN ALBERTA/ERN WA. THE 20Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE NE NEB SHORTWAVE. THIS WAS ALONG A SFC TROUGH THAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE NE NEB SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND DROPPING THEM SWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AT LEAST THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED SCT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. AS WE GET LATER IN THE EVENING THE SHOWERS SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER. AS THE SFC LOW DROPS SWD OVERNIGHT WE WILL SEE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN BEHIND IT AND ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO GO NEARLY CALM IN THE NORTHERN FA...AND WITH SOME CLEARING AND RECENT RAINFALL WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AND WE HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE THE NEXT TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST DRY BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY GREAT. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT AFTERNOON...BUT STABILITY IS PRETTY HIGH AS MOISTURE IS FAIRLY MEAGER FOR JULY STANDARDS...AND LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO SUBSTANDARD. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SHOWER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA...BUT CHANCES APPEAR BELOW SCHC ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH FRI AND THE 4TH OF JULY. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO SOME ISO TSRA ON SUN NIGHT OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST NEB...BUT MOST OF SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY AND WARMER AS SOUTHERN WINDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 LONGER RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL CONT WITH THE LIKELY POPS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON MON NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR TUE AND WED BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. LITTLE TO NO WINDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE COULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IN ADDITION TO LOW CIGS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEREFORE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z. LIFR OR VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KOFK. VISIBILITIES AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT ALL SITES BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD AVIATION...KG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.