Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 280810 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 310 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIN ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE COULD BE A SUBTLE VOTE LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS IS ALSO COINCIDENT WITH THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET...THUS ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN KAUH AND KYKN. SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT ONLY 250 J/KG OF CAPE ARE WITHIN THE AREA...AND 850 LIFTED INDICES ARE NEUTRAL. THUS...MOSTLY JUST SHOWERS...BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULDN`T BE RULED OUT. VARIOUS MODELS HAVE HANDLED THIS PREVIOUSLY...AND WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WELL BEFORE NOON AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY. OTHERWISE...IT`S ANOTHER DAY VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. A WARM FRONT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT UNDERNEATH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE PESKY CLOSED LOW OVER US NOW OPENS UP AND DRIFTS EAST. SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH. STATUS QUO ON MONDAY AS PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW GIVES US ONE MORE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND SHIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE LEAD IMPULSE COULD MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE MISSOURI RIVER BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BUT LIKELY POPS COULD MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS A KYKN TO KBIE LINE. THE MOIST AXIS AND LEAD TROUGH DO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BUT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS SPREADING WEST TO EAST FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S...BUT COULD STILL REACH UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA. FAR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA MAY NOT SEE RAIN UNTIL VERY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014 LIKELY POPS CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS AFOREMENTIONED MOIST AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT THEN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THUS WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE APPEARS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS DEEPER AND THUS HOLDS ONTO PRECIP EVEN WELL INTO FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT SUCH THAT HIGHS FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SATURDAY REMAINS DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
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&& .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z AS WARM ADVECTION SPREADS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. DECREASING CLOUD COVER AFTER 15Z AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA OPENS AND SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS BACK IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING COLORADO LOW. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...FOBERT

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