Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KOAX 181746 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1246 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017 .SHORT TERM...(today through Monday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Northwest flow aloft today with some thin cirrus overhead initially, which should push east through the day and thin. Surface high pressure overhead with light northerly winds, becoming southeast this afternoon results in a cooler day than yesterday, with highs in the lower 50s to lower 60s, but still above normal. Isolated thunderstorms could develop late tonight in eastern KS and western MO as low level moisture returns to the region, but should remain south of the forecast area into Sunday morning. Southerly breezy winds prevail Sunday, which should help boost temps back into the 70s, with partly sunny skies. Any significant fire danger threat should mostly be mitigated by increasing low level moisture. A cold front moves into northeast NE late Sunday afternoon, then through the forecast area Sunday evening. Models still suggest precipitation threat would be ahead of the front, just east of the forecast area, thus will keep the forecast dry at this time, but will continue to monitor later model trends to determine if we need to pull some Pops back into southwest IA. Temps will be cooler Monday behind the front, with breezy northeasterly surface flow. Highs Monday in the mid 50s to mid 60s, but may feel slightly cooler because of the winds. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Rain/snow chances return Monday night into Tuesday as Pacific moisture along with a weak impulse move out of the central Rockies. Another wave moves across the Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing a small chance of rain/snow. A deepening trough across the western CONUS by this time will also induce height falls aloft by Wednesday night into Thursday, which allows some gulf moisture to begin working northward into the Plains. This results in increasing precip chances to overspread the region, moving into the 60-80% range by Thursday. Instability also will increasing by Thursday afternoon thus will also have a mention of thunderstorms through the evening. A new cold front moves into the region on Friday, although models are not in agreement on the timing, thus forecast confidence in the details is quite low by next Friday. && .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Atmospheric river at or above 120AGL stretched across forecast area early this afternoon, and will gradually move eastward with progression of upper level flow. Clearing skies expected at all three TAF sites. Some mixing is expected, but not enough to produce any substantial wind gusts. Main forecast concerns occur during the last 12 hours of the forecast. Low to mid-level southerly flow will return to the area this evening as surface and H8 ridge moves east. Short term models show increasing LLJ during the overnight hours at H8 with decoupled surface. Nose of LLJ will encroach CWA during overnight hours, bringing low VFR cigs into southern sections of the CWA, impacting LFK & OMA. Moisture likely will not stream far enough north to affect OFK. LLWS a concern, but for time being, only included for OFK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DeWald LONG TERM...DeWald AVIATION...Fortin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.