Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 110845 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 245 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 240 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016 SIMILAR SITUATION THIS MORNING WITH YESTERDAY MORNING AS NEXT BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TRACKS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN IOWA DURING THE DAY. YESTERDAYS EVENT WAS MUCH FASTER THAN FORECAST WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE SHOWS MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH NO SURFACE REPORTS OF SNOW UPSTREAM OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 08Z. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH AND EAST OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A PERIOD OF WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM TO NEUTRAL ADVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY PERIOD FOR THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE ALSO SHOWS SIMILAR TRACK AND LOCATION OF THE SNOW BAND DURING THIS TIME. ALSO LIKE YESTERDAY IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF IOWA WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. COLDER AIR THEN MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS MAIN CORE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THIS TIME THEN STARTS TO PUSH EAST AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. THE WARM ADVECTION AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 240 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016 TREND TURNS TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF WARM ADVECTION BRINGING SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG WARMING INDICATED BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION.
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&& .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016 MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM 09Z TO 15Z. INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS AT KOFK AND KOMA FOR LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. MVFR CEILING MAY CONTINUE INTO THU EVENING. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...MILLER

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