Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 301823 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 123 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS SETTLING INTO THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST NORTH OF THE FRONT. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 80S AND HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ESPECIALLY AT THE HOTTER AIRPORT LOCATIONS OF KOMA/KLNK AND KOFK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT REACHING THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS THEN WASHES OUT BY SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING DURING THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH IN PLACE IN THE UPPER PATTERN. PERIODIC CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS. MAJOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO DURING THIS TIME WITH MORE ENERGY AND FLATTER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EURO. AS A RESULT HAVE LIMITED POPS TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE AREA WITH SOME INCREASING MID CLOUDS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TODAY. THIS AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS FL100...SOME SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FRIDAY WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE. SPOTTY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRY TO FORM. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW IN TIMING AND LOCATION TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

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