Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 290548 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1148 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 .SHORT TERM...(tonight through Thursday) Issued at 141 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 Powerful stacked low pressure system centered this afternoon over southeast North Dakota will begin to slowly move southeast overnight dragging colder air into our region along with a small chance for light pcpn in our far northern counties. In addition, a fairly strong pressure gradient behind the system and favorable mixing with unidirectional northwest flow will create blustery conditions for the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Precipitation type will be a mix of rain and snow initially, with a change over to all rain Tuesday afternoon, before mixing again and finally changing over to all snow late Tuesday night. The far southern edge of the precipitation will inch southward into Wednesday but should remain north of Highway 30. Precipitation amounts look light with total QPF only a couple hundredths of an inch which would amount to less than a half inch of snow near the SD/NE border. Cold air advection will continue through mid to late week with highs Wed and Thu only in the 30s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 141 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 The upper low finally begins to move out of the region Thursday with another possible push of cold air advection which the models have yet to agree upon. In any case, a 1030 mb high will build overhead for Friday into Saturday. Models continue to diverge on strength of an incoming upper level trough through the weekend with the EC much more aggressive. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1140 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 The large storm system over the Dakotas and Minnesota will continue to affect the TAFs through 06Z Tuesday night; especially KOFK early on. Surface winds at KOFK should be 10 to 15kt and generally under 10kts through 12Z at KOMA and KLNK. Included LLWS at the TAF sites with 30 to 35kt into Tuesday morning. There will be a push of reinforcing stronger northwest winds Tuesday and these will mix down with WNW winds 12-20kts and gusty. Patchy MVFR conditions are generally just north of KOFK. Will mention patchy MVFR, then prevailing MVFR with the stronger more northwest flow. KOMA/KLNK appear to remain VFR until Tuesday afternoon. May see flurries or sprinkles Tuesday afternoon and included a PROB30 at KOFK.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kern LONG TERM...Kern AVIATION...Zapotocny

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