Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 300445 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1145 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 THE REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT. A SUBTLE WAVE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY HAD 20 TO 30 METER HEIGHT FALLS AT H50...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL SOUTHWARD TONIGHT ALLOWING A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. MOISTURE IS MEAGER AT BEST...WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BENEATH A MID CLOUD DECK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS IOWA OVERNIGHT...AND ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF OUR CWA. OTHERWISE...VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SMOKE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. THICKER SMOKE WAS NOTED ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS NOTICEABLE AFTER DARK. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED 594 DM RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE VISIBLE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND DIVING INTO THE MEAN EASTERN US TROUGH. THE FIRST OF THESE WAS LOCATED OVER WRN NEB/ERN CO AT 12Z...WITH THE NEXT OVER MN AND EVEN FURTHER UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WAVE MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. ANY EFFECTS FM THE MN SHRTWV WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FA BY 12Z ON TUE...BUT THE PAC NW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND HEADING FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DECENT H85 TO H7 WAA WILL GET GOING FROM SD INTO NEB BY LATE MORNING...AND INTENSIFY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. STRONG LIFT IS INDICATED ON THE 310 K SFC DURING THE AFTERNOON IN A NW TO SE ORIENTED BAND INTO NE NEB BY AFTERNOON WITH CON PRES DEF DROPPING BELOW 50 MB. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN ISO/SCT TSRA BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION OF STRONGER LIFT. AS THE ACTUAL QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUE NIGHT TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE THAT LIFT FURTHER INCREASES...PEAKING DURING THE EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS ON TUE NIGHT INTO THE LIKELY CAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE SOUTH ON WED MORNING BUT WILL LINGER SOME POPS INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE LIFT SHIFTS SEWD. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON WED AFTN AND WED NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA ON THU. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THIS SYSTEM APPEARS STRONGER THAN THE TUE NIGHT SYSTEM...BUT STATIC STABILITY WILL ALSO BE HIGHER...AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE PROVIDING OUR FA WITH A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR. NEVERTHELESS THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD OVERCOME SOME OF THE DRY AIR AND LEAD TO A CHC OF SHOWERS FM NE NEB THU AFTERNOON SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE AREA ON THU NIGHT. HAVE ALSO COOLED THE HIGHS FOR WED THROUGH FRI WITH THE CWA WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST...AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. WE SHOULD AGAIN SEE A DRY PERIOD AFTER THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RECOVERING...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE NEAR THE AREA ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE REGION. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FOR NEXT MON WITH THE GFS WASHING THIS FRONT OUT AND ALLOWING FOR HOT CONDITIONS WHILE THE EC HAS THE SUNDAY FRONT SETTLING TO THE SOUTH AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH CLIMATOLOGY GIVEN THE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST AND DRY. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PATCHY MVFR VSBY IN HAZE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH 18Z AS THICK SMOKE LAYER HANGS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z MAINLY ALONG THE EASTERN NEBRASKA BORDER INTO WESTERN IOWA AS SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE REGION. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD AVIATION...FOBERT

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