Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 292015 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 TSTM CHANCES/COVERAGE THIS EVENING THEN TIMING OF SHOWERS ENDING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM 12Z SHOWED THE FOLLOWING. AT 500 MB...A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BACK INTO COLORADO. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF 10-30 METERS WERE NOTED. TROUGH AT 700 MB WAS IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. AT 850 MB...MOIST AXIS WITH DEWPOINTS OF 10 C OR GREATER EXTENDED NORTH FROM THE GULF UP INTO MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS...THEN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. COOL AIR WAS NOTED FARTHER NORTH...WITH A -9 C 850 MB TEMPERATURE AT CYQD IN WESTERN MANITOBA. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BACK INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. MUCAPE VALUES WERE UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT THESE VALUES DROP OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER NORTHWEST OF KOFK. SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES WERE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS. SOME INSTABILITY WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS FAIRLY LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE AIRMASS WILL STABILIZE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...BUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER WELL BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. WE WILL HAVE A COOL...BUT MAINLY DRY...FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. 500 MB RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND FOR NOW IT APPEARS ANY PCPN WILL STAY TO OUR WEST OR NORTH. WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TSTMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRACK MAINLY TO OUR NORTH...SO COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THERE. LOOK FOR HIGHS SATURDAY BETWEEN 65 AND 70...68 TO 72 SUNDAY AND THEN IN THE 70S MONDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT...WITH MOST LOWS IN THE LOWER OR MID 40S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL FLATTEN/BUILD SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. RIPPLES MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. TIMING BEST CHANCES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC. MODEL AGREEMENT STARTS TO DROP OFF BY FRIDAY...AND SO DOES CONFIDENCE ON ANY DETAILS BY THAT TIME. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 VFR TO MVFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING AT ALL THREE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST. PERIOD. WIND SHIFT FRONT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. TRANSITIONAL COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS STILL MAINLY ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BUT NOW ENTERING THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER AIR. DUE TO THE STABLE NATURE OF THIS AIR MASS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THUNDER CHANCES. STILL HAVE TEMPO OF -TSRA IN KOMA AND KLNK BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE REACHING THE 15G25KT RANGE AFTER 01Z.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...MEYER

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