Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 192110 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 310 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014 PCPN CHANCES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THIS PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO A CONCERN. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR FOR OUR WEATHER INTO THURSDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES. TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER AMOUNT IS PROBLEMATIC AND THE LATEST SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL KEEP A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER GOING...FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT THE RAP NAM 925 MB AND 850 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS SUGGEST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. WITH POOR MIXING...IT APPEARS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S NORTH AND RANGE TO LOWER OR MID 30S SOUTH. THE UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A BLOCKING RIDGE AT 500 MB EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES UP ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND THEN INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA. SPLIT FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. THAT ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND THEN EVENTUALLY OUT INTO MID AMERICA. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WE HAVE HAD SOME MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. MOST RECENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF THAT IN OUR AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN FOR CONTINUITY FOR NOW IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THAT MIGHT GET REMOVED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FORCING FOR MEASURABLE PCPN REMAINS VERY WEAK THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHTY BETTER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD SOME LOW PCPN PROBABILITIES GOING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. KEPT THOSE IN PLACE...SINCE EVERYTHING WAS STILL PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRITICAL FOR PCPN TYPE. KEPT A MENTION OF RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH OF AN EVENT FOR OMAHA/COUNCIL BLUFFS OR LINCOLN BUT IT COULD BE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT...AND FINE TUNE THINGS AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014 INITIALLY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO TEXAS...WITH ANOTHER FROM ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN INTO MONTANA. SOUTHERN WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD MISSOURI...WHICH COULD HELP BRING SOME LIGHT PCPN TO PARTS OF OUR AREA. PCPN TYPE WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO OUR AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOW FOR OUR LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF HAD BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY AND WAS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS. THE GFS AND ECMWF LARGE SCALE FEATURES REMAIN SIMILAR FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE. CONFIDENCE DROPS TO AROUND AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW BY WEDNESDAY. IT DOES LOOKS DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT THIS POINT. HIGHS IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY 30S AND 40S BUT LOWS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014 DURATION OF LOW CIGS IN THE NEAR TERM THE MAIN ISSUE. REGIONAL SFC OBS/VIS SATL WERE SHOWING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF ERN NEB WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EXTENDING UP INTO THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE THE BACK EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD ROUGHLY FROM KVTN TO KTOP. TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS SUGGEST THAT THE MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE THRU MID AFTN AT KOFK AND KOMA. DO NOT BELIEVE AT THIS POINT LOW CIGS WILL EXPAND MUCH FATHER WEST AT AFFECT KLNK...SO WILL STICK WITH VFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...DEE

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