Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 252012 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 312 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Slow-moving low continues to push rain into the area. Subjective 12Z upper-air analysis indicates upper-level low centered in eastern KS/western MO, with 100m 500mb height falls ahead of it. Another trough was just off the west coast, with 110m height falls into southern CA. The 850mb low center was nearly stacked under the upper low, with closed circulation encompassing an area from southern MN to northern TX and western KS to the MS river. Moisture had wrapped behind the low across IA/eastern NE/KS. Surface low at 19Z was centered in southeastern MO, with stratus deck back into central NE/central KS. Main forecast concern is the stratus vs fog dilemma tonight, then return of rain chances on Sunday night/Monday at least to the southern CWA. For tonight, dilemma remains that stratus will preclude dense (<1SM) fog formation where it lingers tonight, though light visibility restrictions are possible. If clouds were to break, then dense fog formation would occur, given the abundant low-level moisture and light winds. That scenario would be more likely in northeast NE than anywhere else. That said, forecast soundings among guidance products do hold onto stratus through the night. Have continued to play the forecast that the stratus wins the battle. Clouds will linger through much of Sunday, with just a short break in weather as upper-level ridge slides through ahead of the next trough/low upstream. The surface low is forecast to remain well south, moving across OK to AR/MO, and most precipitation also should remain well south. We do have a small area of chance POPs in the southern CWA on Sunday night to the southeasternmost CWA on Monday morning. In wake of that system, a broader upper-level ridge will move into the central US, with more residence time ahead of the next upper low. Blends have included rain in central NE just getting into the northwestern CWA on Tuesday afternoon, but better bet is likely to remain dry. In fact, Tuesday might be the nicest day in the next seven, with potential for temperature recovery and a few peeks of sun. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Main forecast concern in the long term is the impact of a slow- moving upper-level low Wednesday through Friday. Another slow-moving low is progged to rumble across the southern Plains to Mississippi River valley, with a considerable amount of discrepancy remaining among model solutions regarding its placement and timing. Have left blended rain chances Tuesday night through Thursday night, but did cut rain out of the blended grids on Friday and Friday night, as GEM was the lone outlier still producing rain in the area. Once again, it looks likely that NE/IA will remain on the cool side of the low, with precipitation remaining plain rain as it is too far north to be convective and too warm for frozen types. Temperatures are likely to be just as impacted as precip chances by the low placement, with further north GEM-like solution warmer than further south ECMWF/GFS solutions, and have maintained blend temperatures for now until models exhibit better consistency/agreement. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 IFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites as deep moisture remain in place associated with an upper low pressure system. Opted to include some mention of LIFR ceilings overnight. The big question will be how visibility will lower, if at all, overnight. Decided to start a trend toward lower visibilities, with the idea it may not happen at all given low confidence cloud cover/winds would allow it. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mayes LONG TERM...Mayes AVIATION...Pearson

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