Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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831 FXUS63 KOAX 070352 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1052 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily storm chances (20-50%) continue tonight and persist through the week. Repeated rounds of rainfall could lead to localized flooding concerns. - A few strong to severe storms will be possible Monday across eastern NE and Tuesday across southeast NE and southwest IA. - Expect relatively cooler weather by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 The latest 500 mb analysis shows large-scale troughing over the central United States and a weak trough reflected at the surface. An MCS to surviving longer than anticipated and moving into eastern Nebraska. A few strong to severe storms are possible next couple hours. Short-term convective allowing models show a rapid decrease in coverage and intensity of these storms and overall MCS by early evening. Another MCS may move out of the Nebraska panhandle this evening and move into the western CWA. It too though is expected to weaken dramatically as it moves into eastern Nebraska. For tonight expect quiet weather as weak ridging takes the place of the exiting trough. By Monday afternoon another round of storms may form as lee troughing develops over the central Plains. At present the strongest storms are expected in western Nebraska but will propagate into the far western portions of our County Warning Area. To the east, shear and instability parameters are not as robust which should allow storms to weaken as they progress east Monday evening. With these storms the damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the primary hazards, though a brief tornado can`t be ruled out. The SPC currently includes much of eastern NE and west-central IA in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for northeast Nebraska. Longer term (Tuesday into next weekend)...Expect an active weather pattern to continue as a series of shortwaves translate through the forecast area. This allows for precipitation chances most days. Temperatures will be cooler for next weekend as a strong low pressure system passes to our north, brining relatively cooler air with it. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
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Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 VFR conditions expected overnight and into Monday morning with some passing mid-level clouds and perhaps a few clouds around 2500-3500 ft agl. Light easterly winds will become southeasterly through the day, but should mostly be under 10 kts outside of storms. Regarding storms, guidance continues to suggest potential for some scattered storms from late morning into mid-afternoon, but confidence in one hitting a TAF site is too low to include mention. Higher storm chances arrive for the evening and overnight with a line of storms moving through. Still some questions on exact timing and how far southeast they`ll make it. For now, only included mention at OFK, as it has the highest chances of seeing anything prior to 06Z.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Pearson AVIATION...CA