Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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561 FXUS63 KOAX 251108 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 608 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017 WV imagery this morning showing revealing a well amplified upper ridge building into the nrn/cntrl Plains with a stout vort max in southwestern Canada moving along the U.S.?canadian border. Both HRRR/RAP13 suggest a series of impulses/cold pockets associated with the northern tier upper low will contribute to popping off a few showers mainly this afternoon and evening as steepening mid level lapse rates envelop the region. However...given limited moisture/instability along with stiff condensation pressure deficits to overcome...showers will likely be isolated in nature. Late Friday afternoon...models in good agreement focusing the development of a cluster of storms in the southwest Neb panhandle within region of cyclonic turning low level geostrophic winds intersecting with 850mb frontogenetic forcing. Storms...possibly forming into a weak complex...are progged to eventually reaching the CWA shortly after midnight. Reasonable to assume a few locations will see generous rainfall accumulations through Saturday afternoon given PWS 1.5" and KI 35-40. Expect lingering precip will be at a close Saturday evening. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017 The medium range models appear to be in agreement dry conditions will prevail Sunday through Tuesday with max temps hovering just a bit below normal in the mid 70s. Wednesday/Wednesday night...a few impulses riding down the front end of an upper level ridge situated over the western CONUS may pop off another round of isolated showers. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 608 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017 Lower to mid-tropospheric warm advection along a nocturnally veering low-level jet has fostered a north-south band of widely scattered showers which were advancing into eastern NE as of 11z. We will include a mention of VCSH for the next couple of hours at KOFK and KLNK, however confidence in this activity reaching KOMA remains low at this time. Thereafter, expect gusty south winds to develop by mid morning and continue into early evening with scattered to broken mid and high-level cloudiness. Thunderstorms developing over the central High Plains this afternoon could affect KLNK and KOMA late tonight. Confidence in this scenario remains too low to mention in the current forecast.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...Mead

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