Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 270825 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED THROUGH OUR WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES...BUT ALSO MOVING NORTH AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BASED ON HRRR/RAP MODEL GUIDANCE. BELIEVE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...ON THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME...AND TWEAKED FOR TIME OF DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER DUE TO A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN TODAY. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. MONDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014 THE NEXT TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WEST COAST...MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT DOESN`T MOVE IN UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL HAVE POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES...AND THEN LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE NOW FLIPPING WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER MOVING THE PRECIP OUT...WITH THE GFS HOLDING ONTO PRECIP WELL INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING PRECIP OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST. COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY. WENT DRY ON FRIDAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014 SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SPREADING NORTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER WITH RADAR SHOWING SOME RETURNS SOUTH OF KOMA. MAIN ACTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA FEATURES SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL THREE SITES. MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON KOMA FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE IN DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 12Z BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...FOBERT

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