Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 062336 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 636 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014 SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AT 19Z. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CU DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO FAR BUT NOTABLY DRIER AIR BEHIND IT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S. CONVERGENCE RATHER WEAK AS FRONT DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER THIS EVENING AND WASHING OUT OVERNIGHT. HAVE CARRIED SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE AREA FOR TONIGHT WHERE RAP MODEL SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL BUT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED IT STORMS DO DEVELOP. A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT AS FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST HELPING TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS FOR THE SOUTHERN BORDER AREA MONDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS STORMS TAKE ON A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS WARM AND DRY FOR TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY WITH LESS HUMIDITY AROUND AS FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014 MOISTURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. SERIES OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DURING THE PERIOD INDICATED BY MODELS AS RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN IN THE WEST WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STORMS FOR THE AREA PRIMARILY DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS MID SUMMER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. && .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014 CONSIDERATIONS FOR TONIGHT WOULD BE ANY STORMS NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/ APPEAR TO BE KEEPING ANY DEVELOPMENT AT BAY WITH THE WINDSHIFT MOVING THROUGH KOMA/KLNK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. CONSIDERED FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LACK OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE LARGE ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE...HOWEVER WILL RE- EVALUATE WITH THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. MONDAY AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH SOUTH...MEANWHILE...A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH AND STRENGTHEN. FOR NOW ONLY MENTIONED A PROB30 AT KOFK. WILL RE- EVALUATE FOR KLNK/KOMA WHEN EVENING DATA IS IN.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

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