Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 101738 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1238 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Main concerns are morning fog along with chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Visibilities across south central Nebraska continue to drop this morning with some locations reporting a quarter mile. Will continue to watch any eastward progression this morning. Latest water vapor imagery shows a sharp shortwave trough dropping southeast into western Minnesota this morning with associated surface low pressure currently moving across the Mississippi river into northwest Wisconsin. A cold front extended southeast from this low and has been slowly drifting south through our northern counties overnight. The front is forecast to continue slowly sagging south across the forecast area today. Meanwhile, a weak mid-level impulse currently over eastern Colorado is forecast to slide southeast and into our forecast area this evening. Latest several runs of the CAM`s indicate some pcpn spreading into the forecast area as early as this afternoon near the boundary and dropping south through the evening as the mid-level impulse approaches the region. High pressure builds overhead Friday with continued cooler than normal temperatures and dry conditions. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Return flow develops to our west by Saturday morning with best isentropic upglide remaining across central Nebraska. Some of the pcpn could move into our far western counties through the day but will most likely just give the area increasing cloud cover. Medium range models continue to diverge early next week in regards to pcpn chances. Model blends indicate hit and miss chances of pcpn but overall a continued cool pattern. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 VFR conditions are indicated through the TAF cycle. Ceilings should remain above 5000ft at all sites, but the possible exception could be at KLNK if it is affected by showers/storms in the late afternoon/early evening. Current forecast primarily keeps showers/isolated storms south of KLNK, thus no mention in the TAF. Also kept visibility unrestricted at all sites, but with light winds, cannot rule out brief MVFR visibility at all sites close to dawn. In short, the TAF set reflects the optimistic outcome projected by the model blend, but other less optimistic scenarios are possible.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kern LONG TERM...Kern AVIATION...Mayes

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