Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 310823 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 323 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 TODAY WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH A FEW VERY WEAK IMPULSES CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER S- CNTRL CANADA WAS STRETCHING ALL THE SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IS CLOUD COVER WITH THE LATEST SFC OBS REVEALING LLVL CIGS JUST EAST OF THE CWA. HIRES HRRR IS ADVERTISING THE LLVL CLOUDS WILL RETROGRADE AND ENVELOP MAINLY THE IA CWA THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. ARW/NMM TIME-SECTIONS THEN SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY AFTN HOURS BEFORE A MID LVL DECK MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. NOTE...NOTICED THAT THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING ISOLATED PCPN CREEPING INTO THE ERN CWA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO BOTHER ADDING ANY SMALL POPS SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A VERY WEAK WAVE MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES COULD BRING SPOTTY SHOWERS TO EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT...THAT COULD LINGER THROUGH MORNING. INSTABILITY IS NON EXISTENT THUS NO NEED TO MENTION THUNDER. TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS FINALLY WARMING BACK TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE IS ANOTHER VERY SUBTLE WAVE THAT RIDGES THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH NUMEROUS WAVES MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL BRING A DAILY CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S...MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SPRING WEATHER. NAEFS MEAN PW MOISTURE PROFILES DO INCREASE TO ABOUT THE 90TH PERCENTILE BY MID WEEK PARTS OF THE PLAINS...THUS POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. COULD ALSO SEE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT EXCESSIVELY STRONG. TIS THE SEASON. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 AN EXTENSIVE MVFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS IOWA CONTINUES PUSH WEST TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER. DID ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR A BROKEN MVFR DECK BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY TO SEE IF IT GOES LOWER OR OVERCAST. THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...KERN

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