Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 171552 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1052 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014 LATEST OBS SHOWING LEADING EDGE OF COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE BNDRY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL KS INTO NRN MO TO SFC LOW CENTERED IN NERN IA. ALSO...EXTENSIVE STRATUS SHIELD WAS ACCOMPANYING CAA FILTERING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE RAPID DISSIPATION BY LATE MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN. TOPIC OF INTEREST IN THE NEAR TERM PDS IS POSSIBLE CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ADVERTISE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS FRI NIGHT WILL INDUCE SFC LOW OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. BY 12Z SAT...WELL ESTABLISHED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE AT THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BNDRY. MODELS INDICATE BNDRY WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN IN RESPONSE TO FLOW ALOFT TURNING NEAR ZONAL. MATTER OF FACT...NAM/GFS INDICATE THE BNDRY HOLDING TIGHT OVER THE CWA ALL THE WAY UNTIL LATE SUN. WITH PWS AROUND 1.3"...LIKELY THAT GENEROUS CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WILL BE REALIZED ALONG/SOUTH IF I-80. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014 MODELS MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN DURING THE EXTENDED PDS WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF PCPN COMING NEXT WEEK. STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE WRN DAKOTAS WED MORNING WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS. MOIST WAA ENSUES THEN LEADING UP TO INTENSE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY MORNING. AGAIN...GENEROUS ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE AT TIME OF COLD FROPA. APPEARS THAT DEEP LYR SHEAR/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL FOR POSSIBLE SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY WED EVENING. && .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...AS MVFR STRATUS BANK CLEARS OUT OF KOMA/KLNK BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15G25KT BY MID-MORNING.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...MAYES

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