Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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185 FXUS63 KOAX 071043 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 543 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible (30-45% chance) late this morning into the early afternoon. - A cluster of strong to severe storms is expected this evening into the overnight hours. Damaging wind gusts (60-70+ mph) will be the main threat, especially in northeast NE, though hail, a brief tornado, and locally heavy rainfall are all possible. - Intermittent storm chances persist through the week, with Thursday standing out as another day to monitor for potential severe weather. Repeated rounds of rainfall could also lead to localized flooding. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Today and Tonight... Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a mid- to upper-level ridge centered over the Four Corners region, leaving much of the area under zonal to northwesterly flow aloft. This setup will allow a series of shortwave disturbances to round the ridge and bring multiple chances for showers and storms throughout the week. At the surface, calm winds and a humid air mass will allow for patchy to widespread fog/low-level stratus to develop across the area, which should gradually improve after sunrise. Afternoon highs are expected to range from the mid 80s to low 90s. Today looks to be an active weather day with two round of showers and thunderstorms possible. The first chance arrives in the late morning to early afternoon as a shortwave disturbance and associated vorticity maxima traverse the region. CAMs vary in their depiction of this round, with the HRRR showing minimal development while the Fv3, NSSL-WRF and NAM Nest suggest a quick-moving round of scattered storms. Should storms develop, brief gusty winds and small hail will be possible, supported by 1500+ J/kg of MLCAPE and bulk shear of 20- 25 kts. However, the weaker shear will likely limit storm organization, and cold pools may become quickly unbalanced. PoPs for this round range from 30-45% through the afternoon. The more substantial severe weather threat arrives this evening into the overnight hours. Thunderstorms are expected to initially develop as isolated supercells along a lee surface trough in western NE and SD during the afternoon. These storms are then expected to congeal into an MCS and track east-southeast into northeast NE by the evening and push south across eastern NE and southwest IA through the first half of the overnight period. The severe threat will be maximized in northeast NE as the MCS enters the area. If early-day convection clears in time for sufficient airmass recovery, this area will be primed with steep mid-level lapse rates (7-7.5 deg/km), potent MUCAPE values (2500+ J/kg), and improved shear profiles (35- 40 kts bulk shear), supporting all severe hazards. Damaging wind gusts (60-70+ mph) will be the primary concern as DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg. Hail (up to 1-1.50") will be possible under stronger updrafts, and a brief tornado can`t be ruled out if any discrete or semi-discrete structures persist, given modest low-level curvature in model hodographs. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible, with PWATS ranging from 1.50-1.75" and warm cloud depths of 3-4 km, though the progressive nature of the MCS should limit the potential for widespread flooding concerns. WPC does have the area in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall. The system is expected to gradually weaken as it moves southward, with most of the area clearing out by mid to late morning Tuesday. PoPs with this round peak in the 60-90% range. SPC currently places northeast NE in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather, with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) extending across much of eastern NE and west-central IA. Tuesday and Wednesday... In the wake of Tuesday morning`s MCS, the atmosphere will likely be overworked, favoring drier conditioned across the area. While a few spotty showers can`t be entirely ruled out, this period appears to offer the best window for dry weather this week. High temperatures on Tuesday are expected to reach the mid to upper 80s, with the low 90s possible on Wednesday. Another weak shortwave disturbance and accompanying vorticity maxima is expected to move through the region Wednesday evening into early Thursday, bringing a low-end chance for precipitation (PoPs 15-30%). At this time, the threat for severe weather appears low. Thursday... By Thursday, two separate H5 lows, one currently positioned off the coast of British Columbia and another off the coast of California, are expected to move eastward and eventually merge into a more pronounced mid- to upper-level trough approaching the northern Plains. In advance of an associated surface trough, low-level moisture advection and a tongue of very strong instability is expected to pull into the central and northern Plains. Thursday afternoon is expected to bring the warmest temperatures of the week, with highs ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s. While long-range guidance continues to vary on the exact timing and placement of severe weather, Thursday is shaping up to be a day worth monitoring. GEFS-based machine learning guidance highlights a broad swatch of 10- 15% severe weather probabilities extending from Nebraska into the Dakotas. PoPs currently increase Thursday afternoon, peak Thursday night (PoPs 40-60%), and gradually taper off into Friday. Friday and Beyond... A brief cooldown is expected Friday into Saturday following the departure of the midweek system, with high temperatures dipping into the low 80s. Heading into the weekend, the broad upper-level pattern will remain similar to this week, featuring riding over the southwestern CONUS and zonal to northwesterly flow aloft. This setup will continue to support occasional precipitation chances as weak shortwave disturbances track through the region. Temperatures are expected to return to seasonable conditions with highs generally in the upper 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
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Issued at 537 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Patchy fog this morning is bringing MVFR to even brief periods of LIFR conditions across eastern Nebraska, with the highest confidence in impacts at KOFK before returning to VFR conditions by 13-14Z. Scattered showers are possible (30-45% chance) in the late morning and afternoon, though confidence in coverage was too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Calm northeasterly winds will gradually veer to southeasterly this afternoon. Attention then turns to a cluster or strong to severe storms that is expected (60-90% chance) to push into northeast Nebraska this evening and dive southward into the overnight period. MVFR conditions and strong wind gusts (30+ kts) will be possible as the storms push through the area.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Wood