Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 191833 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 133 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 132 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Boosted temperatures further for today with readings running about 24 degrees ahead of yesterday at this time. Thicker cirrus showing up on satellite, and this may slow warming some, however did raise highs into the lower and mid 80s for the southern part of the forecast area with a record/near record at LNK (current record is 82 set in 1921. Will be monitoring for TS threat later this afternoon and evening especially MO River eastward. RAP/HRRR are still dry through 03z with convection initiating farther east. Some higher h85 dewpoints try to wrap into eastern Neb/wrn IA...with the increasing low level jet along with a ribbon of higher sfc dewpoints...however CIN is also high.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(today through Tuesday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Some spotty convection could develop this morning across eastern KS and much of MO, but would remain south of the forecast area. Otherwise, today will be a warm day with breezy southerly winds and highs pushing into the mid 70s and possibly even lower 80s across southeast NE. Not bad for the last day of astronomical winter! A cold front will move into the area tonight. Most models suggest that any convective threat will exist just east of the forecast area across central IA during the evening. The GFS and SREF hint that the western edge of the convection could affect southwest IA. The ESRL HRRR and High Res NMM also hint at this as well, thus will have a slight chance of storms east of the MO river, but my instinct tells me it will probably remain dry. Dewpoints do rise into the 40s and lower 50s today, and a few counties along the MO river could see very high fire danger. Much cooler on Monday for the first day of Spring, but still above normal with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Breezy northeasterly winds prevail which will usher in drier dewpoints, with grassland fire danger indices only reaching the high category. A weak wave moves out of the central Rockies Monday night into Tuesday. This will mostly be a rain event, but will be mixed with some light snow Tuesday morning in northeast NE. Amounts will be light, with 1/2" or less in that area. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Dry conditions most of Tuesday night, although another weak wave moving out of the Rockies could bring another chance of snow and rain through Wednesday, but no accumulation expected with that system. A trough moving on shore on the west coast Wednesday night should bring increasing chances of rain into Thursday, with thunderstorms eventually becoming likely through the day Thursday into Thursday night. Models begin to substantially diverge by this time though, with details of a cold front and possible closed low becoming quite murky with overall low confidence Thursday night into Friday. GFS is much more progressive and would end precip threat much earlier than ECMWF, which would even linger precip into Friday night. Model blends hold onto precip even into Saturday, but feel that`s probably too long and later forecast packages should be able to end precip chances much quicker than currently forecast. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 132 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. South to southeast winds 10 to 20 kts to become variable then northeast at KOFK this evening around 02Z...and after 06Z aft KOMA and KLNK. Some of the models are hinting at some stratus Monday morning after 12Z and will assess in future forecasts.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...Zapotocny SHORT TERM...DeWald LONG TERM...DeWald AVIATION...Zapotocny

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