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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KOAX 011350
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
750 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISSUED AT 750 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

UPDATED CLIMATE SECTION TO MATCH UP TO TWEAKS IN EXPECTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. MANY SITES ARE AT OR NEAR THEIR MAX TEMPS FOR
THE DAY ALREADY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

WELCOME TO MARCH. STILL LOOKING AT A MINOR SNOWFALL EVENT OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. THE BIGGER
STORY PROBABLY WILL BE THE COLD TEMPS...WHICH WILL BREAK MANY
RECORDS...AND FOR COLD MAXIMUM TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY...FOR
MINIMUM LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN A MANY AREAS. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BREAK THE ALL TIME
COLDEST MAX VALUES FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH AT ALL PRIMARY
SITES AS WELL.

REGARDING THE SNOWFALL...LIGHT SNOW HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
THAT WAS NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT`S INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT THERE ISN`T ANY REAL STRONG SHORT WAVE PRESENT AS FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS FAIRLY FLAT WITH NILL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. IT`S JUST
BROAD LIFT WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT AREA OF THE JET STREAK
WHICH IS INDUCING SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. BEST FORCING THIS
MORNING REMAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...THEN FORCING SHIFTS SOUTH
TOWARD I80 BY 18Z...AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...
SNOWFALL RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE...15 TO 18 TO
1...WHICH SHOULD YIELD A FLUFFIER SNOWFALL. A PIECE OF ENERGY NOW
MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP DEVELOP A SECONDARY BAND OF SNOW THAT
WOULD THEN SET UP SOUTH OF I80...WHICH COULD STILL BE TAPPING INTO
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN JET STREAK...COMBINED WITH THE
LIFT OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SOUTHERN JET. IN FACT...THE
BULK OF THE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL SOUTH OF I80 WOULD OCCUR 6PM
TONIGHT TO 9AM SUNDAY.

THUS...THINKING REMAINS THE SAME AS COUPLE OF PREVIOUS CYCLES THAT
THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL HELP SPREAD THE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FIST JET SEGMENT BRING SNOW MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN AREAS
AND THE SECOND JET SEGMENT BRINGS IT TO THE SOUTH. SUCH THAT A
WIDESPREAD 3 TO 4 INCHES IS FORECAST...AND SOME AREAS SOUTH OF I80
COULD PICK UP 4 TO 5 BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF SUNDAY MORNING.
TRIMMED POPS NORTH OF I80 SUNDAY...WITH ANY LINGERING FLURRIES
ENDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
AREAS FOR THE COMBINATION OF A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH STAGGERED START AND END TIMES NORTH TO SOUTH.

REGARDING THE COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILL VALUES...PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEPS THINGS EXTREMELY COLD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WHICH WOULD
BREAK COLD MAX RECORDS AT ALL PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES TODAY. SOURCE
REGION FOR TONIGHT SUGGESTS THAT LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO NEGATIVE
TERRITORY...AND LIKELY 10 TO 17 BELOW FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WOULD BREAK RECORDS AT SOME SITES.
CALCULATED WIND CHILL VALUES ALSO DROP TO 25 TO 35 BELOW
TONIGHT...WITH COLDEST VALUES NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE WE`LL ISSUE A WIND CHILL WATCH. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR ALL AREAS...WHICH WOULD BREAK COLD
MAXIMUM RECORDS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH. RECORD COLD MIN
VALUES ARE AGAIN FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD WITH ABSOLUTE VALUES FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW
ZERO...WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK AND CLEARING SKIES. AND WHILE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER MONDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL AGAIN DROP
TO 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO...THUS WILL LIKELY NEED WIND CHILL
HEADLINES FOR THAT DAY AS WELL. FOR SPECIFIC RECORD
VALUES...PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION LATER IN THIS PRODUCT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

WHILE IT MAY FEEL LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL NEVER GO
AWAY...INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS LATER IN THE WORK
WEEK. BY TUESDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE BEGUN ACROSS NEB
AND WILL EXPAND INTO IA...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS BRINGING
TEMPS BACK ABOVE 0C. WARMING WOULD BE HAMPERED BY SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS THOUGH...AS WELL AS CLOUDINESS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPS THROUGH MN/IA AND ANOTHER SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS TO
KS/OK. WITH CWA BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES...HAVE KEPT IT DRY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PLAINS WAVE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS IT CROSSES KS THOUGH...AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POP MENTION ON WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. ALSO COOLED TEMPS A BIT FOR
WEDNESDAY...AS ECMWF/GFS/GEM WOULD INDICATE COOLER MID-LEVEL
TEMPS...CONTINUED SOUTHEAST WINDS...AND CLOUDINESS IF NOT LIGHT
PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES DO REBOUND SUBSTANTIALLY ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT AND CLEANER SKIES.
MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA SOMETIME AROUND
FRIDAY...THUS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE THE NORTH MAY HAVE
IMPEDED WARMING AS WELL AS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. THE
FAIRLY ROBUST TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH PRECIP TYPE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT LISTED AS
SNOW FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY.
CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR AND REMAIN THERE WITH SNOW ONSET LATER
THIS MORNING. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH PERIODS
OF MODERATE SNOW OF AROUND 1/2 TO 3/4 MI VIS AT KOFK AND KOMA THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH IFR CEILINGS. HAVE NOT GOTTEN TOO CUTE WITH
TRYING TO TIME PERIODS OF THE MOST RESTRICTED VISIBILITY AND
LOWEST CEILINGS...WITH A FAIRLY BROAD TEMPO GROUP AT EACH SITE
REPRESENTING THE WINDOW OF HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THE WORST
CONDITIONS. LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT ALL SITES
OUTSIDE OF THOSE MORE MODERATE PERIODS OF SNOW...BUT SNOW SHOULD
END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTH WINDS AROUND 12-15KT
GUSTING TO 20-25KT SHOULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 10-14KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL.


&&

.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISSUED AT 750 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

RECORD COLDEST DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TODAY (MARCH 1)
ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL SITES.  HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND THE FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES:

SITE     RECORD COLD MAX TEMP    YEAR             FORECAST MAX TEMP
OMAHA    12                      1890             11
LINCOLN  16                      2009, 1962, 1890 12
NORFOLK  11                      2009             5

RECORD COLDEST DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TOMORROW (MARCH
2) ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL SITES.  HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND THE
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES:

SITE     RECORD COLD MAX TEMP    YEAR             FORECAST MAX TEMP
OMAHA    13                      1943             2
LINCOLN  14                      1916             4
NORFOLK  10                      1916             0

THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW (MARCH 2) MAY ALSO
PUT THE COLDEST DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF MARCH IN JEOPARDY.  THOSE RECORDS ARE:

SITE     RECORD COLD MAX TEMP    DATE
OMAHA    5                       3/10/1948, 3/18/1923
LINCOLN  6                       3/10/1948, 3/18/1923
NORFOLK  2                       3/10/1948

RECORD COLDEST DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TOMORROW (MARCH
2) ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL SITES.  HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND THE
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES:

SITE     RECORD COLD MIN TEMP    YEAR             FORECAST MIN TEMP
OMAHA    -4                      1913             -8
LINCOLN  -7                      1913             -5
NORFOLK  -15                     1913             -14

RECORD COLDEST DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MONDAY (MARCH
3) ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL SITES.  HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND THE
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES:

SITE     RECORD COLD MIN TEMP    YEAR             FORECAST MIN TEMP
OMAHA    -5                      2002             -12
LINCOLN  -10                     1978             -8
NORFOLK  -10                     1960             -17

THE FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY (MARCH 3) ARE NOT QUITE
DOWN TO THE RECORD COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF
MARCH...BUT THEY ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THOSE
RECORDS ARE:

SITE     RECORD COLD MIN TEMP    DATE
OMAHA    -16                     3/11/1948
LINCOLN  -19                     3/4/1978, 3/11/1948
NORFOLK -20 3/4/1960
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ034-043>045-
     050>053-065>067-078.

     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
     NEZ068-088>093.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ011-
     012-015>018-030>033-042.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080.

     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     IAZ043-055-056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
     IAZ090-091.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

UPDATE...MAYES
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...MAYES
CLIMATE...MAYES