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771
FXUS63 KOAX 251946
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
246 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

Manual upper-air analysis at 12z revealed a vigorous mid-level
trough from central Canada into the north-central U.S. with the
mid Missouri Valley located on the southern fringe of stronger
height falls attending this system. At the surface, a cold front
stretched from the upper Midwest through the Ozarks into southern
Plains as of early afternoon. Steep low-level lapses and the
downward transfer of higher-momentum flow aloft in the post-
frontal air mass have fostered gusty northwest winds today across
eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. These winds will diminish by
evening with clearing skies allowing overnight lows to fall into
the lower to mid 40s.

The upper-air system passing to our north today will evolve into
a closed low over the Great Lakes early this week with the mid
Missouri Valley remaining in northwest flow aloft. In the low
levels, an increasing westerly wind component will promote
gradually warming temperatures Monday and Tuesday. A substantial
vorticity lobe will pivot around the western periphery of the
upper low Tuesday night into Wednesday, driving a back-door cold
front through the area during that time frame.

Moisture will remain quite limited within this synoptic pattern
and no precipitation is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

A deep-layer cyclone over the Ohio Valley at the onset of the
extended period will slowly drift south and east with model
guidance diverging on the eventual track of this system by next
weekend. Meanwhile, an upstream trough will gradually move into
western North American with an intermediate ridge over the Great
Plains slowly breaking down. In general, a dry weather pattern
will continue into next weekend with near-normal temperatures
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

VFR conditions expected thru the fcst pd.


&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...DEE