Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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771 FXUS63 KOAX 251946 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 246 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...(tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 245 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016 Manual upper-air analysis at 12z revealed a vigorous mid-level trough from central Canada into the north-central U.S. with the mid Missouri Valley located on the southern fringe of stronger height falls attending this system. At the surface, a cold front stretched from the upper Midwest through the Ozarks into southern Plains as of early afternoon. Steep low-level lapses and the downward transfer of higher-momentum flow aloft in the post- frontal air mass have fostered gusty northwest winds today across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. These winds will diminish by evening with clearing skies allowing overnight lows to fall into the lower to mid 40s. The upper-air system passing to our north today will evolve into a closed low over the Great Lakes early this week with the mid Missouri Valley remaining in northwest flow aloft. In the low levels, an increasing westerly wind component will promote gradually warming temperatures Monday and Tuesday. A substantial vorticity lobe will pivot around the western periphery of the upper low Tuesday night into Wednesday, driving a back-door cold front through the area during that time frame. Moisture will remain quite limited within this synoptic pattern and no precipitation is expected. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 245 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016 A deep-layer cyclone over the Ohio Valley at the onset of the extended period will slowly drift south and east with model guidance diverging on the eventual track of this system by next weekend. Meanwhile, an upstream trough will gradually move into western North American with an intermediate ridge over the Great Plains slowly breaking down. In general, a dry weather pattern will continue into next weekend with near-normal temperatures expected. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.) Issued at 1213 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016 VFR conditions expected thru the fcst pd. && .OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mead LONG TERM...Mead AVIATION...DEE

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