National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 020915
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALING AN ELONGATED UPPER TROF OVER THE
WRN CONUS WITH A CUT OFF LOW SITUATED JUST OFF THE CA COASTLINE AND
NRN SEGMENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE PAC NW. MEANWHILE...BROAD
SFC HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL PUSH INTO THE OH VLY
AND INDUCE MOIST BACKSIDE FLOW INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATER TODAY.

NEEDLESS TO SAY A RATHER COMPLICATED FCST IS ON HAND TRYING TO
DETERMINE WHEN/WHERE COLD AIRMASS...ASSOCIATED WITH PAC NW
SHORTWAVE...SWEEPING SEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR PCPN
CHANGE FROM LIQUID/FREEZING/FROZEN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

BASED UPON COMBINATION OF COBB OUTPUT...VERTICAL TEMP/MOISTURE
STRUCTURE PER BOTH NAM AND GFS....INITIAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
BE SUPPORTIVE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TYPE EVENT THIS EVENING
BEFORE COLUMN SATURATION AND DEEPENING CAA COMES INTO PLAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GIVEN SPEEDY NATURE OF CAA...SUSPECT TRANSITION  WILL
BE SWIFT ONCE IT REACHES THE CWA. THAT ALONG WITH BRIEF TIME FRAME OF
PCPN ACTIVITY...BELIEVE THE NRN CWA WILL SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO AN INCH OR SO NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT PLATTE CO TO MONONA CO
BY EARLY TUES AFTN. AS FOR HEADLINES...PREFER TO ALLOW DAY SHIFT
TO FINE TUNE THE AREAS THAT WILL BE AT RISK FOR WINTRY MIX.

IN ADDITION...SREF SOLUTION IS DEPICTING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THUS
MAKING IT QUITE LIKELY FOR A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
OVER THE NRN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MEX/ECMMOS REMAIN CONSISTENT ADVERTISING A GENEROUS TEMP REBOUND
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE
MOST PART FRIDAY THRU MON.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST BY
MORNING AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SPEEDS AOA 12 KT AND GUSTS OVER 20 KT STARTING FM LATE MRNG
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FM THE
SOUTH WITH MVFR CIGS MOVG INTO THE TAFS DURING MON EVNG. SOUNDINGS
ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON
THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP. AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES AND TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WE WILL
LEAVE THEM DRY FOR NOW...BUT SOME KIND OF FZDZ/DZ BECOMES LIKELY
AFTER 03Z ON MONDAY EVNG.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office