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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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599
FXUS63 KOAX 191843
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
143 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Weak upper level ridging continues to build east across the Central
Plains while a weak mid-level shortwave trough slides northeast
across the desert southwest. This shortwave trough will slide
northeast into the Southern Plains by Friday with strong low-
level warm/moist advection ahead of it. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms remain possible Friday evening in strong warm air
advection regime with 45-50kt low-level jet which will persist
into Saturday morning when PW`s increase to over 200% of normal.
A sharp cold front will drop southeast into northeast Nebraska
shortly after sunrise Saturday and continue to move southeast
through the CWA through the daylight hours. Despite modest
instability axis ahead of the boundary, capping inversion may keep
thunderstorms at bay initially with best chance for a few
marginally severe storms in a narrow window of time late Saturday
afternoon, mainly along and south of I- 80. This activity should
be quick to clear from west to east Saturday evening as the front
quickly moves east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Near to slightly above normal temperatures and dry weather
expected Sunday into the early part of the work/school week. We do
continue a very small mention of showers Tuesday but newer
guidance suggesting area could remain dry. A deep trough will
extend over the eastern half of the country by mid week which
should bring in much cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR conditions with increasing clouds by the end of the TAF
period. Variable winds out of the south to southeast today 5 to
15kts. The surface winds drop below 10kts for a while early this
evening, however LLWS increases to 42-52kts and continues
overnight. Increasing surface winds and LLWS included later
tonight and Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Zapotocny

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office