Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 011745 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 MORNING UPDATE TO REFLECT THICKER MID CLOUDS AND STARTED TO TRIM BACK HIGHS TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MAY HAVE TO TRIM FURTHER. MORNING HI-RES MODELS AND OPERATIONAL 12Z NAM STILL HAVE SOME ISOLD/SCT PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...SO LEFT POPS IN WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF/THETA-E ADVECTION. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AREA BALANCES BETWEEN DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NEBRASKA AT 07Z WITH A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES DURING THE DAY WITH LITTLE FORCING UNTIL AFTER 00Z AS WEAK UPPER WAVE AND AREA OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CONTINUED TO LINGER SMALL POPS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THEN DRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL POPS REMAIN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL WEAK ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE AREA. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED ON THURSDAY AS TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST AND RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WITH MOISTURE AND ENERGY SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST. EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF VERY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY WITH BETTER FEATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA IN THE STRONGER FLOW. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS WESTERN TROUGH PUSHES EAST. MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS TO STAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THIS MODEL RUN...BUT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND EURO TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY DEPENDING ON MODEL TIMING. FRONT STALLS IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME AS UPPER FLOW FLATTENS ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE SCT-BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AT/VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES WITH THIS WAVE. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE DID NOT MENTION AT KOFK/KLNK PRIOR TO 00Z...HOWEVER DID MENTION VCSH LATER TONIGHT AND MAY BE ABLE TO TREND BETTER WITH THE 00Z UPDATE. BRISK SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON 10 TO 16KTS SUSTAINED WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE TO 12KTS OR LESS TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TONIGHT AND MENTIONED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY SHORT TERM...FOBERT LONG TERM...FOBERT AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

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