Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 021613 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1113 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT VERY STOUT LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LEADING TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL VIA SEVERAL MCS. ALL ADVERTISE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO PRODUCING PERIODS OF HVY RAINFALL... UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT/INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE PCPN EFFICIENCY COUPLED WITH MAXOMEGA COINCIDENT TO PWS OF 1.5" INCHES OR MORE/KI VALUES HOVERING AROUND 40. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN LOUSY AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT. AT THE MOMENT LATEST GFS/ECM ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE PLACING HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE CWA THRU FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE CMC FAVORING IA. MEANWHILE...NAM12 IS FOCUSING PCPN MAINLY ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER SIMILAR TO WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY WPC. AT ANY RATE...VERY DIFFICULT TRYING TO PIN DOWN POP TIMING/PLACEMENT AT THIS POINT IS PROBLEMATIC AT BEST AND THEREFORE FEEL IT IS REASONABLE TO TRY AND INTERPOLATE AMONGST THE MODELS AND USE BEST GUESS AS TO WHERE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY BE REALIZED. NOTE...SPC HAS DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK INVOF THE NRN CWA. BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST PROBABLE LOCATION FOR ANY SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOUND OVER CNTRL SD DAKOTA THIS AFTN/EVENING PERIOD WHERE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/EFF SHEAR/DEEP LYR SHEAR WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 ECM/GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PCPN CHANCES THRU AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT. AMPLE ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE WILL DEFINITELY BE IN PLACE DURING THE TIME BEFORE A DRIER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS PUSHES IN VIA A COLD FRONT...PER THE ECM. THE GFS EVENTUALLY FOLLOWS SUITE THEN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. REGARDING TEMPS...METEOGRAMS PRETTY MUCH SHOWING AFTN HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1104 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015 A FEW MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AFTER 18Z AT KOFK AND KLNK...BUT THOSE CIGS WILL BE LIFTING AND SCATTERING EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE FL040 TO FL090 RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THEN TRACK INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z. ATTENDANT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STORMS COULD AFFECT KOFK SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AND KOMA/KLNK AREAS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR IFR CIGS WILL SETTLE IN TO KOFK AFTER THE STORMS PASS. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...DERGAN

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