Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 062304 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 604 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 THE FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...IF SMOKE SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST... COOLER...BELOW NORMAL HIGHS. WE`VE HAD A SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH THE MAIN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN PER WSR-88D RADAR SOUTH OF NEBRASKA CITY. AT 20Z...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED AS FAR BACK AS LOGAN IOWA...TO OMAHA AND LINCOLN. THE 12Z OAX SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING WAS CUT SHORT DUE TO THUNDERSTORM CONTAMINATION. FROM THE UPPER AIR MAPS...THERE WAS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET AND THIS LIFT CONTINUES WITH A MAXIMUM SHIFTING INTO MISSUOURI THIS EVENING. THE H5 LEAD TROF HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH...WITH THE MAIN H5 TROF STILL OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/LIGHTNING SHOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS WITH THUNDERSTORMS CLUSTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF KANSAS. DEWPOINTS WERE STILL IN THE 70S OVER FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...HOWEVER DRIER 60S WERE WORKING IN WITH THE COLD FRONT AND THE BRISK NORTH WINDS. SMOKE WAS CREATING HAZY CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS THE MAX MLCAPE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THE 2.2 INCH MAX PWAT IS STILL ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. FORCING IS WEAKER...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME FORCING ALOFT WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING H85 AND H7 MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE POPS DOWN DURING THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN. SOME PATCH FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH THE WET GROUND AND DECREASING WINDS ALOFT. SMOKE HAS BEEN REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND OUR COOP OBSERVER IN BLOOMFIELD CAN NOW SMELL THE SMOKE. THE SMOKE FORECASTS SHOW SMOKE IN PARTS OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WILL INCLUDE IT IN THE ZONE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. FORECASTERS CAN ASSESS IF THE SMOKE IS THICK ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TUESDAY. THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROF TRACKING THROUGH CANADA INTO THE PLAINS WILL RETURN DEEPER MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 18Z NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DO HAVE SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FOR NOW. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MENTIONED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY. COOLER...BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AREA WILL BE PRONE TO UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES TRACKING FROM ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE UNCAPPED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH SHORTWAVE. HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR SATURDAY WITH 80S AND 90S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE HAZE/SMOKE/FOG. KOFK IS ALREADY HAS REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND WOULD EXPECT KLNK AND KOMA TO FOLLOW.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...KERN

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