Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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599 FXUS63 KOAX 191843 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 143 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017 Weak upper level ridging continues to build east across the Central Plains while a weak mid-level shortwave trough slides northeast across the desert southwest. This shortwave trough will slide northeast into the Southern Plains by Friday with strong low- level warm/moist advection ahead of it. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms remain possible Friday evening in strong warm air advection regime with 45-50kt low-level jet which will persist into Saturday morning when PW`s increase to over 200% of normal. A sharp cold front will drop southeast into northeast Nebraska shortly after sunrise Saturday and continue to move southeast through the CWA through the daylight hours. Despite modest instability axis ahead of the boundary, capping inversion may keep thunderstorms at bay initially with best chance for a few marginally severe storms in a narrow window of time late Saturday afternoon, mainly along and south of I- 80. This activity should be quick to clear from west to east Saturday evening as the front quickly moves east. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017 Near to slightly above normal temperatures and dry weather expected Sunday into the early part of the work/school week. We do continue a very small mention of showers Tuesday but newer guidance suggesting area could remain dry. A deep trough will extend over the eastern half of the country by mid week which should bring in much cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017 VFR conditions with increasing clouds by the end of the TAF period. Variable winds out of the south to southeast today 5 to 15kts. The surface winds drop below 10kts for a while early this evening, however LLWS increases to 42-52kts and continues overnight. Increasing surface winds and LLWS included later tonight and Friday.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kern LONG TERM...Kern AVIATION...Zapotocny

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