Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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056 FXUS63 KOAX 030328 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1028 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few strong to isolated severe storms could clip portions of far northeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa this evening (10-15% chance). - There is a 20-30% chance of spotty storms Friday afternoon with higher chances (50-70%) arriving for the evening into Saturday, but questions remain on exact timing. The severe weather threat looks low (less than 5% chance). - Daily 20-30% chances of showers and storms Sunday into next week. The chance for hail, wind, or tornadoes looks low (less than 5%), but repeated rounds of thunderstorms could lead to a flooding threat. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Fairly quiet early this afternoon with the shortwave/MCV responsible for our earlier showers and storms exiting to our east. Looking at water vapor imagery, additional shortwave energy was evident pushing across the Dakotas and into MN. Guidance suggests much of this forcing for ascent will remain just to our northeast, but could see a few showers or storms sneak into portions of northeast NE and west- central IA this evening as it passes through (10-15% chance). Modest deep layer shear and instability could yield a stronger to isolated severe storm in this area, but again, chances favor storms remaining to our north and east. The primary upper level ridge axis will push into the area on Thursday and should yield a dry, but warm day with widespread highs in the 90s and heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100, highest near the NE/SD border and in urban areas. Attention then turns to Independence Day with storm chances being the main focus. An upper level trough currently sitting over southern CA will push east into the area by Friday evening with a surface trough/wind shift also moving in. Said wind shift will likely be the primary focus of storm development by late afternoon/early evening, though questions remain on exact timing of those storms pushing through the forecast area. Current consensus favors this line remaining mostly to our west through 9-10 PM and pushing in after, but there are still several pieces of guidance that are earlier (and later), so that will certainly be something to monitor going forward. In addition, some guidance suggests we could see spotty, diurnally-driven convection in the afternoon, though other pieces of guidance keep us capped. Regardless, there should be enough instability to yield an isolated strong to severe storm, but weak shear should limit the overall hail/wind/tornado threat. That said, precipitable water values approaching 2" and warm cloud depths over 4 km could bring a heavy rain/localized flooding threat, but current guidance keeps things somewhat progressive in moving through. Otherwise, it will be a warm and humid 4th, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. However, southerly winds gusting 25-30 mph could help at least a little bit. Showers and storms could continue off and on with a surface boundary remaining in the area on Saturday. While the boundary will push off to the south by Sunday afternoon, guidance suggests we`ll remain in a fairly active pattern with various bits of shortwave energy sliding through. As a result, we have almost a perpetual 20-30% chance of showers and storms at any given time well into next week, with the most likely dry time being Sunday afternoon/evening (10-15% chance of rain). The hail/wind/tornado threat looks low with this activity (machine learning algorithms showing a 5% chance at most) with deep layer shear remaining pretty modest. However, the threat of repeated rounds of storms, a flooding threat could develop at times. Temperature-wise, we`ll be right around average heading into next week, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the mid 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
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Issued at 1028 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 VFR conditions hold through the TAF period under mostly clear skies. Southerly winds will increase for Thursday afternoon with gusts to 20-25 kt. Winds will calm back down Thursday evening.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...McCoy