Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 020915 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 315 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 312 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015 WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALING AN ELONGATED UPPER TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH A CUT OFF LOW SITUATED JUST OFF THE CA COASTLINE AND NRN SEGMENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE PAC NW. MEANWHILE...BROAD SFC HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL PUSH INTO THE OH VLY AND INDUCE MOIST BACKSIDE FLOW INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATER TODAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY A RATHER COMPLICATED FCST IS ON HAND TRYING TO DETERMINE WHEN/WHERE COLD AIRMASS...ASSOCIATED WITH PAC NW SHORTWAVE...SWEEPING SEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR PCPN CHANGE FROM LIQUID/FREEZING/FROZEN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BASED UPON COMBINATION OF COBB OUTPUT...VERTICAL TEMP/MOISTURE STRUCTURE PER BOTH NAM AND GFS....INITIAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BE SUPPORTIVE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TYPE EVENT THIS EVENING BEFORE COLUMN SATURATION AND DEEPENING CAA COMES INTO PLAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN SPEEDY NATURE OF CAA...SUSPECT TRANSITION WILL BE SWIFT ONCE IT REACHES THE CWA. THAT ALONG WITH BRIEF TIME FRAME OF PCPN ACTIVITY...BELIEVE THE NRN CWA WILL SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH OR SO NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT PLATTE CO TO MONONA CO BY EARLY TUES AFTN. AS FOR HEADLINES...PREFER TO ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO FINE TUNE THE AREAS THAT WILL BE AT RISK FOR WINTRY MIX. IN ADDITION...SREF SOLUTION IS DEPICTING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THUS MAKING IT QUITE LIKELY FOR A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES OVER THE NRN CWA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 312 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015 MEX/ECMMOS REMAIN CONSISTENT ADVERTISING A GENEROUS TEMP REBOUND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE MOST PART FRIDAY THRU MON.
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&& .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015 AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPEEDS AOA 12 KT AND GUSTS OVER 20 KT STARTING FM LATE MRNG THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FM THE SOUTH WITH MVFR CIGS MOVG INTO THE TAFS DURING MON EVNG. SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP. AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WE WILL LEAVE THEM DRY FOR NOW...BUT SOME KIND OF FZDZ/DZ BECOMES LIKELY AFTER 03Z ON MONDAY EVNG. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

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